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Earth Science

How Long Do Most Species Last Before Going Extinct? (livescience.com) 35

Posted by EditorDavid from the ticking-clocks dept.
Long-time Slashdot reader fahrbot-bot shares an article from Live Science asking a thought-provoking question: How long do most species last before going extinct? The majestic blue whale has plied the seas for about 4.5 million years, while the Neanderthals winked out of existence in a few hundred thousand years. But are those creatures representative of species overall? How long do species usually last before they go extinct? It turns out the answer we find now could be very different than it usually is. Because of habitat destruction, climate change, and a range of other factors, plants and animals are disappearing from the planet faster than all but maybe five other points in history. Some experts say we're in the sixth mass extinction event...

Experts don't agree on the average amount of time that species in any category last before going extinct. The fossil record documents when a species shows up and when it disappears, but it leaves a wide margin of error because conditions must be perfect for fossils to form, and those conditions aren't always present when a species shows up and blinks out. And these longevity stats aren't that useful anyway. Stuart Pimm, a leading extinction expert and a conservation ecologist at Duke University's Nicholas School of the Environment, said he prefers to think about extinction in terms of how many species die out every day, or month, or year...

The current extinction rate is much higher than any of these predictions about the past — about 1,000 times more than Pimm's background extinction rate estimate, he said. However, not everyone agrees on how accelerated species extinction is now, said Tierra Curry, a senior scientist at the Center for Biological Diversity in Oregon. Some experts estimate that the current extinction rate is only 100 times faster or, at the other extreme, 10,000 times faster...

One thing the experts do agree on is that the modern extinction rate is far too high. "Species are adapting as fast as they can," Pimm said. "But eventually the luck runs out and they don't adapt fast enough. And they go."
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How Long Do Most Species Last Before Going Extinct? More

How Long Do Most Species Last Before Going Extinct?

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    • Re: (Score:1)

      by Anonymous Coward

      They said SPECIES not FECES.

  • Summary errors (Score:1, Interesting)

    by Anonymous Coward

    The additional summary is physically impossible.
    If that's really what the article says it would be mind boggling such a paper could get published at all, so I highly suspect it was added by the editors or fahrbot-bot.

    The Permian extinction event destroyed over 95% of the worlds species *that have ever existed*
    What few survived it, and *ALL* known species between then and now, fall into the less than 5% category.

    If there was to be an extinction rate higher than 5% of the largest extinction rate, that means e

    • The Permian extinction event destroyed over 95% of the worlds species *that have ever existed*

      We dont know anything of any of the extinction events that surely precipitated life moving onto land. That 95% that you are talking about may only by 5%, or even 0.005% of a complete total.

      • Re:Summary errors (Score:4, Insightful)

        by algaeman ( 600564 ) on Sunday November 08, 2020 @07:34PM (#60700986)
        Moving onto land was an incredibly slow evolutionary process, not something precipitated by an event. Unicellular life was likely there from nearly the beginning wherever there were resources and an energy gradient. What we think of as "moving onto land" implies multicellular organisms, which meant plants had to get there (~425 Mya), followed by insects (~390 Mya), followed by reptiles (~325Mya), followed by your momma (last night).

    • Re: (Score:2)

      by MrL0G1C ( 867445 )

      Comprehension fail, mod the coward down.

      The Permianâ"Triassic extinction event, also known as the Pâ"Tr extinction,[2] the Pâ"T extinction,[3] the End-Permian Extinction,[4] and colloquially as the Great Dying,[5] formed the boundary between the Permian and Triassic geologic periods, as well as between the Paleozoic and Mesozoic eras, approximately 252 million years ago. It is the Earth's most severe known extinction event, with up to 96% of all marine species[6][7] and 70% of terrestrial ver

  • If we aren't careful, humanity is going to add itself to the list.

  • Focus on the clade not the species (Score:5, Interesting)

    by presidenteloco ( 659168 ) on Sunday November 08, 2020 @06:44PM (#60700856)
    Many species stop existing because they evolve into one or more successor species. Neanderthals would be an example actually since they are still part of our ancestry.

    A clade is a whole tree (or set of branches off of one branch) of original species and tree of successor species.

    As time goes, these whole tree branching structures get pruned off.

    Evolutionary biologists estimate that the current recent rate of clade pruning is 100 to 1000 times the average background rate more typical of the last several billion years.
    • And arguably are not a seperate species. [scientificamerican.com]

    • Many species stop existing because they evolve into one or more successor species.

      In that vein how good are we at identifying different species from the fossil record compared to when we have live samples to observe? For example, some species are differentiated based on colouration which is exceptionally hard to figure out from the fossil record. In addition, fossils are not perfect so how many minor variations are missed because of a very limited number of samples or outright missing samples.

    • Re: (Score:2)

      by dasunt ( 249686 )

      Many species stop existing because they evolve into one or more successor species. Neanderthals would be an example actually since they are still part of our ancestry.

      The mainstream view is that anatomically modern humans (ANH) evolved separately from a previous hominid, not from Neanderthals.

      ANH evolved somewhere in Africa from one branch of the hominid tree. While a separate branch split off, then split again, creating Neanderthals and Denisovans. When various subpopulations of ANH reached Europe and

  • How tasty is it?

  • in many cases species will mutate into another species due to pressure from humans and the rest of the environment. a certain colored animal in one area might go extinct but an almost exact version with a different colored outside will flourish in another part of the world

  • I think our time is up. We have made changes to our environment which will make our continued existence impossible.

    • I think our time is up. We have made changes to our environment which will make our continued existence impossible.

      not really we are very adaptable. our species has lived through multiple hot and ice age cycles and that was before we developed technology civilization and agriculture. Life may suck for a few centuries to millennia but the the human species will survive. few serious scientists think we are going to turn into venus we would have to fuck up way worse for a lot longer to go there, so we will live in a worse but mostly habitable world.

    • Re: (Score:1)

      by Tablizer ( 95088 )

      Nah, humans are too adaptable. However, 90%+ of people could die off due to plagues, wars, and other unfortunately events, maybe even a combo. I don't expect climate change to kill off humanity, but it may likely make life miserable for most of them.

      • If 99.9% of the population dies it still means 8 million people survive which is still a long way from extinction. But that approach overlooks how things are connected and how one disaster brings another. If there is a major nuclear war with nuclear winter then the food production suddenly drops to a fraction. At the same time a lot of infrastructure is destroyed. Add to that secondary wars, procreation problems with drop in fertility and birth defects and things can go south pretty fast.

        • Re: (Score:1)

          by Tablizer ( 95088 )

          I will agree that a full-out nuclear war may eventually wipe out ALL large mammals, including humans via radiation poisoning. I hope things don't get that far, but zealotic leaders can be suicidal.

          • I see a more danger from nonsuicidal countries calculating they can go to the brink and get away with it.

            • Re: (Score:1)

              by Tablizer ( 95088 )

              True. The Generals pressured JFK to "push the button". Lucky for us, JFK thought it thru.

              • Well, pushing the button is beyond going to the brink. But if you take the US it has a general attitude that it on one hand it wants to dominate and on the other hand they escalate because letting go means losing face. That is the mafia Don reasoning. You can't afford to lose face in a confrontation. Other parties need to have red lines which cannot be crossed. In the case of Russia it will be very hard to avoid this from exploding. China has not even deployed its nuclear weapons yet but eventually they wil

    • You make an assertion not backed by science, not even the most extreme in the IPSS are making any such claim of the future. Do you change channels on the TV looking for soap opera to cry to?

  • 2 kids is the sustainable number. When the parents die, they are replaced by their 2 kids. By limiting your progeny you allow more room for nature.
    https://www.google.com/search?... [google.com]
  • Humans are special, they're the only species capable of voluntarily extinct itself.
  • Something I found a few years ago is that many of the dinosaur species we are most familiar with had relatively short "lifespans", though the families these species belonged to were around far longer. Triceratops lasted for less than 3 million years, as did Tyrannosaurus and Ankylosaurus, Iguanodon for maybe 5-6 million years. While in most cases the roles of these animals were taken over by a very similar member of their family, it is interesting to think how in an era we often perceive as static species w

  • .. any average amount of time is meaningless.

  • On how it it s before they run into an american dentist,

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