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Earth

Fossil Fuels Caused 8.7 Million Deaths Globally in 2018, Research Finds (theguardian.com) 200

Air pollution caused by the burning of fossil fuels such as coal and oil was responsible for 8.7 million deaths globally in 2018, a staggering one in five of all people who died that year, new research has found. From a report: Countries with the most prodigious consumption of fossil fuels to power factories, homes and vehicles are suffering the highest death tolls, with the study finding more than one in 10 deaths in both the US and Europe were caused by the resulting pollution, along with nearly a third of deaths in eastern Asia, which includes China. Death rates in South America and Africa were significantly lower. The enormous death toll is higher than previous estimates and surprised even the study's researchers. "We were initially very hesitant when we obtained the results because they are astounding, but we are discovering more and more about the impact of this pollution," said Eloise Marais, a geographer at University College London and a study co-author. "It's pervasive. The more we look for impacts, the more we find." The 8.7 million deaths in 2018 represent a "key contributor to the global burden of mortality and disease," states the study, which is the result of collaboration between scientists at Harvard University, the University of Birmingham, the University of Leicester and University College London. The death toll exceeds the combined total of people who die globally each year from smoking tobacco plus those who die of malaria.
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Fossil Fuels Caused 8.7 Million Deaths Globally in 2018, Research Finds

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  • Ignoring the aspect it's impossible to separate the contribution of a specific exposure over entire populations and their life times - what is the cost benefit ratio?
  • Fossil fuels is what allowed the population explosion in the mid-20th century through the green revolution.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/... [wikipedia.org]

    That didn't happen with sunshine and puppies. It happened with cubic miles of oil.

    • by nealric ( 3647765 ) on Tuesday February 09, 2021 @04:14PM (#61045376)

      Another headline: Fossil fuels a prerequisite for the existence of at least 3/4 of the world's population.

      Humans existed for roughly 190,000 years with a total population that didn't exceed about 5 million people. Over the next roughly 10,000 years, the invention of agriculture got us to around 500 million. The industrial revolution, powered first by coal and then oil, is what got us from 500 million to nearly 8 billion in 300 years- just a blink in terms of the arc of human history. Oil allowed crop fertilization, mechanized blows, long distance irrigation projects, and global food transport (allowing large populations in areas with little or no local food source).

      Now, we have to figure out a way to prevent those same fossil fuels from taking the population back to its pre-industrial levels. 8.7 million deaths from pollution is nothing compared to that challenge.

      • *Mechanized plows.

    • Also compared to not doing things like building out electric cars so you can do low emmissions power plants in the (increasingly few) cases where wind/solar aren't practical. I should think that was understood from the context of TFA...
    • by Anonymous Coward on Tuesday February 09, 2021 @04:41PM (#61045464)

      Right, but that happened because it was the only viable option. The point is now that progress has happened, and it's no longer the most viable option for power generation - it's artificially cheap because it externalises costs like healthcare impact and in real terms is therefore significantly more expensive than most renewables that have other benefits like no energy dependence on petro-dictatorships, minimal environmental damage, and minimal healthcare impact, so guess what? If we move to cleaner fuels we can take the next step in human progress again.

    • You may have noticed that deaths usually have births as their prerequisite. So these things are naturally connected.
    • The "father" of the "green revolution" (Norman Borlaug) regretted his actions, which he acknowledged only delayed mass starvation events, and probably made them worse by increasing population.

      Don't let facts interfere with your worship, though.

    • Civilization grew and advanced increasing the life expectancy of humans greatly. Yet civilization grew because of bloody wars, tribal violence, brutal conquests. Now that we have civilization, do we need to keep the wars forever? Do we thank Genghis Khan for his contributions, or do we thank the heavens that his time is long gone? So the same with oil - if it helped us grow does it mean we need to continue worshiping it?

  • Classic case (Score:5, Insightful)

    by Okian Warrior ( 537106 ) on Tuesday February 09, 2021 @04:13PM (#61045366) Homepage Journal

    This is a classic case of stating a statistic without a baseline for comparison. And it does this to further an alarmist agenda.

    The enormous death toll is higher than previous estimates and surprised even the study's researchers

    How many deaths would occur if everyone suddenly stopped using fossil fuels?

    Okay, then what was the death rate *before* the industrial revolution? Not the total deaths, the deaths normalized for the much-smaller population?

    The US death rate is about 2.8M per year, 10% of that is about 300K. Without fossil fuels, we would not have developed antibiotics or the green revolution or all the plastics we now use. What would the death rate without those products?

    The current top causes of death in the US are:

            Heart disease: 659,041
            Cancer: 599,601
            Accidents (unintentional injuries): 173,040
            Chronic lower respiratory diseases: 156,979
            Stroke (cerebrovascular diseases): 150,005
            Alzheimer’s disease: 121,499
            Diabetes: 87,647
            Nephritis, nephrotic syndrome, and nephrosis: 51,565
            Influenza and pneumonia: 49,783
            Intentional self-harm (suicide): 47,511

    It's hard to see where to assign 10% of those deaths to pollution. Respiratory, sure... but that's only 1.5% from a total 10% claimed by the research, and probably much of that is due to smoking (and not directly associated with pollution). A fair number of cancer and heart disease would have to be caused by pollution for the study to make sense. Does it make sense?

    Current estimates indicate that pollution will have a negligible effect on the environment in the next 50 to 200 years, and we're actually solving the problem with technology before that. If you're older than 20, think back to the year 2000 and see if you can remember wind farms, the cost of solar panels, or that stupid GM electric golf cart that nobody wanted.

    Compare to today, where we have LCD lights everywhere with 10x the efficiency, electric vehicles that people actually want to buy and that reduces fossil fuels overall, wind farms, solar farms, and rooftop solar.

    And on the near horizon: self-driving vehicles and drone delivery of small items. Those will eliminate a fair portion of fossil fuel consumption.

    If current trends continue, in 20 years people will be even *more* shrill about the coming disaster - even though we've solved a fairly large slice of the problem.

    • You're strawmaning (Score:5, Insightful)

      by rsilvergun ( 571051 ) on Tuesday February 09, 2021 @04:30PM (#61045416)
      nobody's saying we suddenly stop using fossil fuels. We're saying we get off them as quickly as we can without disrupting lives. Typically with the help of National Governments as the task is too big to leave up to private industry based on a) what we know about climate change and b) in light of this research.

      If we didn't have alternatives you might have a point... except you still wouldn't because then we should be devoting everything we've got to finding an alternative to something that kills 8.7 million a year.
      • Why not let market forces take care of petrol? When switching to renewables is cheaper, then everyone will do it.

        • That's a good idea. Let's internalize the full societal cost of petrol into its price, then let market forces choose the winners and the losers.

          • and when the price of gas hits $10/gallon you can kiss that goodbye (along with our entire economy).

            Those kind of "let 'er rip" approaches just make messes. We need to carefully untangle the mess we find ourselves in. This isn't like ripping off a bandaid. It's more like we've got a railroad spike in our head. It might not kill us, but if we just pull it out we'll bleed to death.
            • Pollution is good for the economy?

              Hey Slashdot, who left the door open and let the wackos in?

              • Re: (Score:2, Insightful)

                by ChrisMaple ( 607946 )
                Pollution is a side effect of things that are good for the economy. Feces is a side effect of living human beings. These things need to be managed intelligently, and sneering at them doesn't help.
        • not on the kind of timescales we need anyway. There's several reasons for this:

          1. There's trillions in fossil fuel assets that stand to be devalued if/when renewables take over. The entire Middle east goes from being a wealthy & crucial geo-political zone to a dirt broke backwater without the water.

          2. Margins mean that if a business can make money do X or Y and Y carries some risk while X is a known quantity they go with X. Fossil Fuels are a known quantity right now.

          3. Without government acti
        • by swillden ( 191260 ) <shawn-ds@willden.org> on Tuesday February 09, 2021 @08:36PM (#61046186) Journal

          Why not let market forces take care of petrol? When switching to renewables is cheaper, then everyone will do it.

          I agree completely.

          However, we must also be careful not to give arbitrary advantages to fossil fuels. At present, people who extract and burn fossil fuels are imposing a burden on everyone else, in the form of the pollution emitted and the climate changed caused by the unrecaptured CO2. Work out the cost of those burdens and apply a tax equal to that amount on everyone who burns fossil fuels. Then let market forces work.

          Oh, similar analyses should be performed for all other energy sources, and their externalities likewise internalized. Then, with all costs accounted for, let the market optimize our choices. Markets are very, very good at that.

          Note that while it's obviously impossible to determine the costs with perfect accuracy, fairly rough estimates will actually work reasonably well.

      • We're saying we get off them as quickly as we can without disrupting lives.

        I would go further than that. We need to get off them as quickly as possible because of the mass disruption that they're already causing in our lives.

        This is the classic case of looking at costs on one side. We just accept all of the disruption from the status quo but don't accept any disruption, even if it's smaller in scale just different, for an alternative.

        People are happy to spend 3 weeks in a hospital from fossil fuel emissions, but aren't willing to spend 10 minutes charging a car instead of 5 min

      • by rlwinm ( 6158720 )
        Governments can't do anything. In fact governments are responsible for far more deaths than fossil fuels. Want to improve the world? Trim back government to a reasonable amount.
      • I'll just posit something.

        I would hope with Covid we can all understand that all deaths are not equal.

        Remember all the talk about things like the obesity epidemic or diabetes epidemic? If you really need a citation... here you go.
        https://www.who.int/news-room/... [who.int]
        "builds awareness on the global epidemic of diabetes"

        Society didn't go into lockdowns because of obesity. Death didn't take people totally out of the blue.

        Quite frankly, it's a tragic shame that institutions like the CDC or even the WHO were spendin

      • Re: (Score:2, Insightful)

        by argStyopa ( 232550 )

        a) climate change is largely bullshit
        b) this research is largely bullshit
        c) you didn't really even read his/her post, or understand it.

        • Extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence, and you have presented none.

          Let the adults talk, kid.

        • Point a) goes against current scientific insight (note that I didn't say consensus, science isn't democratic), so without any supporting links the parent post should just be modded down out of sight.
    • How many of deaths were attributed to people were over the age of 60?

    • What would [be] the death rate without those [petroleum-based] products?

      Probably still 100%.

    • A fair number of cancer and heart disease would have to be caused by pollution for the study to make sense. Does it make sense?

      Yes, obviously. Go forth and read up on those things and how pollution increases them before you blather again.

    • Comment removed based on user account deletion
  • by atomicalgebra ( 4566883 ) on Tuesday February 09, 2021 @04:21PM (#61045386)

    Adoption of nuclear energy could have and should have mitigated millions of those killed by fossil fuels. That means that antinuclear scumbags have just as much responsibility for those deaths as the fossil fuel companies.

    Fuck antinuclear scumbags. They are mass murderers.

    • by lsllll ( 830002 )
      Their answer would be to use renewable energy, which is something I can get behind, as long as we realize that it takes a ton of manufacturing to build a wind turbine and it still has a very finite life span and must still be maintained on a constant basis.
    • except the study's numbers are utter conjecture and agenda driven nonsense...

      the truth is fossil fuel use in that time saved lives, lengthened human lifespan and created wealth for billions. Guess it was worth it overall.

      • The truth is that nuclear energy could have saved more lives, lengthened human lifespan further and created more wealth for billions than fossil fuels. Modern dependency on fossil fuels results in poverty.
      • the truth is fossil fuel use in that time saved lives, lengthened human lifespan and created wealth for billions. Guess it was worth it overall.

        False equivalency. The question isn't about fossil fuels vs no energy. The question is fossil fuels vs another cleaner energy source.

        I don't believe it's worth it overall, and I say this while an oil company currently pays my wages, no, we're in a shit predatory industry that we as a species should have abandoned long ago.

    • Fuck antinuclear scumbags. They are mass murderers.

      Blame the accountants, budget managers, etc. who ensured that nuclear reactors were not built with sufficient safety margins.

    • Nuke is polluting bullshit. And it's outdated, obsolete at that.

  • If these more-polluted areas were spread out, would that alter the illnesses?
    • We cannot spread out without destroying our last wilderness areas. Such areas tend to be important as reservoirs of diversity, watersheds, and other frequently underappreciated but critical elements of our biosphere. Spreading out is a bad idea.

      • by kackle ( 910159 )
        That's a good point. I guess we'll just start having people report to the disintegration chambers.
      • We cannot spread out without destroying our last wilderness areas.

        Yes we can. Convert large tracts of low density sprawl to small, scattered pockets of high density, and return the remaining 95% of land to nature. Now you can afford, ecologically speaking, to build another pocket of humanity somewhere in the wilderness.

  • 10% picked out of thin air. Another number pulled out of the air by a group of unnamed researchers. Blah Blah Blah I grew up in the shadow of a steel mill with multiple chain smoking adults around me since birth. If I succumb to respirator failure brought on by pulmonary edema. Yep it was the fossil fuels. I have family that smoked two packs a day for over 40 years and worked in the steel mill furnace's. For the most part the reason they died in their late seventies was due to a shitty diet and sedentary a
  • "the study finding more than one in 10 deaths in both the US and Europe were caused by the resulting pollution"

    Right. 1 in 10 deaths in the developed world are caused by pollution when it isn't even on the top 10 list of leading causes of death in the US? What does death by pollution even look like? Sounds like someone played fast and loose which correlation to me and blamed many things to which pollution could theoretically contribute on pollution and fossil fuel use.

    Unless coroners were listing 'pollution

  • Apart from the obvious benefits of heating in cold regions, there's food and medicine transport, electricity generation which powers quite a useful life-savers such as mobile phones and LEDs in shoes etc. :-) Then there's all the iron and steel, which makes knives for surgeons and drug dealers and stuff for everyone.

    Seriously, carbon has many essential uses.

  • Interesting to wonder how many lives have been saved by the pandemic and whether we have a net gain or loss. I suspect that deaths from loss of income/economic activity will outweigh Covid deaths, particularly if years of life lost are measured, rather than simply deaths.

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