Follow Slashdot blog updates by subscribing to our blog RSS feed

 



Forgot your password?
typodupeerror
×
United States China

'China Will Soon Lead the US in Tech' (nytimes.com) 289

Graham Allison, a professor of government at Harvard, and Eric Schmidt, former CEO of Google, writing in a column for WSJ: Last year China produced 50% of the world's computers and mobile phones; the U.S. produced only 6%. China produces 70 solar panels for each one produced in the U.S., sells four times the number of electric vehicles, and has nine times as many 5G base stations, with network speeds five times as fast as American equivalents. In the advanced technology likely to have the greatest effect on economics and security in the coming decade -- artificial intelligence -- China is ahead of the U.S. in crucial areas.

A spring 2021 report from the National Security Commission on AI warned that China is poised to overtake the U.S. as the global leader in AI by 2030. U.S.-born students are earning roughly as many doctorates each year in AI-related fields as in 1990, while China is on track to graduate twice as many science, technology engineering and mathematics Ph.D.s as the U.S. by 2025. The Harvard report adds that China now clearly tops the U.S. in practical AI applications, including facial recognition, voice recognition and fintech.

The U.S. still has a dominant position in the semiconductor industry, which it has held for almost half a century. But China may soon catch up in two important arenas: semiconductor fabrication and chip design. China's production of semiconductors has surpassed America's, with its share of global production rising to 15% from less than 1% in 1990, while the U.S. share has fallen from 37% to 12%. In 5G, the Pentagon's Defense Innovation Board reports that China is on track to replicate the economic and military advantages America gained from being the global leader in 4G. China has installed 950,000 base stations to America's 100,000. By the end of last year, 150 million Chinese were using 5G mobile phones with average speeds of 300 megabits a second, while only six million Americans had access to 5G with speeds of 60 megabits a second. America's 5G service providers have put more focus on advertising their capabilities than on building infrastructure. The Chinese Communist Party has made no secret of its ambitions: China intends to become the global leader in the technologies that will shape the decades ahead.

This discussion has been archived. No new comments can be posted.

'China Will Soon Lead the US in Tech'

Comments Filter:
  • Harvard and Google would know, they are two significant "employees" of the Chinese Communist Party. Putting their mouth where their money is, so to speak.
    • by garyisabusyguy ( 732330 ) on Friday December 10, 2021 @04:56PM (#62067383)

      They seem to have forgotten that manufacturing technical goods is MANUFACTURING, I do not see any stats for technical advancements, papers published or patents given

      Yay! Low cost leader is human capital, they can lead into the next century in the field of wage salvery

      • by drnb ( 2434720 ) on Friday December 10, 2021 @05:10PM (#62067449)
        You are decades out of date. Post soviet collapse, the Chinese Communist Party's plan was to copy Japan's post-war economic recovery. Start with low tech and slowly move up the technology ladder. Decades of IP theft, forced technology transfers, forced domestic production (i.e. have the US and EU equip us and train us in advanced manufacturing techniques -- merely having the tech IP is not enough), aggressively funneling bright young minds into STEM, etc. Add to this long term government policy and planning to shift "strategic" products to domestic design and manufacture, many of which are cutting edge and high tech; from jet engines to 5G.
        • Re: (Score:3, Insightful)

          Sure, those are your fears (or what you want to project as fears for others), but the article is mostly talking about manufacturing, with only a slight nod to semiconductor chip design, which China pursues for national security reasons fearing that US chips designs are back-doored

          But playing to fears, sabre rattling and demanding nationalization only raises costs to consumers and risks of military conflict as treaties fall apart and countries decide that they don't need each other

          The US has increase standar

          • by drnb ( 2434720 ) on Friday December 10, 2021 @06:00PM (#62067673)
            Do you imagine that manufacturing is not high tech? The upgrade to their manufacturing knowledge and capability is just as important as the final high tech goods. And part of the reason for partnering with the west was to acquire the experience and technology of manufacturing, the machines and practices that make the consumer and industrial goods. The modern manufacturing knowledge and machinery of the US and EU was necessary to move them beyond Soviet era industrialization. Again, Japan's post-war miracle gave them the roadmap.

            And no, low cost Chinese goods did not improve the American standard of living, it only provides a temporary offset to the degrading quality of available jobs.

            Your "pure isolationist" argument is both a straw man and a red herring. No one is advocating that. Global trade is fine when it is done fairly, fair with respect to openness and non-predatory behavior. If anyone is advocating an "isolationist" policy it is the Chinese Communist Party that has as a goal domestic design and manufacture of all strategic goods.
            • by inode_buddha ( 576844 ) on Friday December 10, 2021 @07:29PM (#62068033) Journal

              As someone who has spent 35+ yrs in manufacturing (tech support/mechanical maintenance) in the USA, I can tell you that the whole point of globalization is to be predatory. It was the predators who pushed for it, not the working class. Therefore I favor hard isolationism. If some predators business models collapse and destroy the US economy as collateral damage, then so be it, they deserve to implode rather than exploit the fsvk out of everyone else on the planet. I mean, because its all just a game for hypercompetitive sociopaths.

              • Re: (Score:3, Informative)

                If globalization were bad for the poor, poor countries with ports on the coasts would be most impoverished, while landlocked poor countries, isolated from world trade, would prosper.

                This is the exact opposite of reality.

              • It was the predators who pushed for it, not the working class.

                Excuse me? The motive force is money changing hands - individuals buying stuff at Walmart and wherever else imports are sold. The working class was all over that.

          • by Sleeping Kirby ( 919817 ) on Friday December 10, 2021 @07:27PM (#62068019)
            So, as a Taiwanese, dmb's right. This was a purposeful and explicit strategy. If you've lived in the US in the 80's and early 90's, you'd remember how everything had "Made In Taiwan". That all changed when China flew missiles over us. That was part of the strategy to take over as a tech manufacturing leader. What he stated aren't fears, but what us Taiwan knew that they were trying to do because they've literally said as such and done as such. Is the article (or at least the summary) a saber rattling? Yes, actually. If you look at part of last year and the year before, the lead in tech is a little worrying. But if you at this year and part of last year, you'll see that, like everyone else, China is having supply issues among other problems (massive pollution, power rationing, etc.). They still can't produce certain quality of chips. I'm not sure they'll lead in tech now. But then, the NY Times has been pretty weird with their stories lately. They've reported (accidentally or not, I can't tell) CCP propaganda before as news and also reported some very fearful pieces about China that really had no evidence behind it. So dmb's post is objectively right, but I would take the NY Times' story with a grain of salt.
          • by Jack9 ( 11421 )

            > Sure, those are your fears (or what you want to project as fears for others

            That's a funny way of trying to spin what has been happening for decades. Do a google search.
            Most of your post is reverse FUD nonsense. When you are denial about reality, 'out of touch' seems gracious.

            As far as the internet is concerned, first, there were the Clinton scandals:
            https://capitalresearch.org/ar... [capitalresearch.org] et al, primarily because Clinton was unfortunate enough to be around as the Internet became ubiquitous, it's likely there

        • Re: (Score:3, Insightful)

          by Dorianny ( 1847922 )
          China still doesn't have a reliable jet engine and they have been trying to copy Russian ones for decades now. The problem is that disassembling a product or even the blueprints themselves tell you very little about the machinery or the manufacturing process used. Yes China build a lot of high-tech equipment but nearly all the machines used come from abroad. Nobody is stupid enough to build those in China where the Chinese can steal their tech.

          FYI: 5G is really just a evolution of 4G (the working name was

          • That is why they wanted partnerships and technology transfers with western engine manufacturers. To acquire the expertise and technology necessary to design and manufacture engines domestically. And yes western corporations are sometimes stupid enough to play along. The lure of access to the Chinese market. And for those CEOs that are not complete idiots and realize what is happening, they figure someone will do it so it might as well be my company that gets 5 to 10 years of engine sales to China before the
            • They do calculations. Given their current development how long before the Chinese can match our technology. If the time-frame is something like less then 5 years than it makes no sense to make an angry competitor out of them. There is other considerations too, perhaps their tech is heavily depended on tech from other Corporations, in which case the Chinese are only getting a piece of the puzzle. Technology transfers are also heavily scrutinized by regulators so it is not as if China can simply bribe some CE
        • by NFN_NLN ( 633283 )

          > the Chinese Communist Party's plan was to copy Japan's post-war economic recovery.

          Follow Japan's model right up until Japan entered into an economic collapse from growing too fast. Two thumbs up.

        • Copy Japan's post-war economic recovery

          And if they execute that well, one might reasonably expect the outcome will be the same. Economic success initially means cheap wages lead to manufacturing explosion, driving a huge increase in exports, and consequently expertise building up in a few industries. Japan became very good at manufacturing cars for instance, eventually teaching the American pioneers in that industry how it was done. But that success drives up wages, and the processes reverses. Manufacturing moves offshore, followed by expertise hollowing out a bit. By any measure Japan success wasn't a disaster for the US - in fact it almost certainly drove up living standards right around the world.

          But whether China will execute as well as Japan is an open question. They looked to have done it pretty well in the early stages following the same pattern. Right up and to and including wages rising and consequently some manufacturing is now moving out of China. Expect that exodus to grow. There is no doubt the flood of cheap goods from China drove up living standards around the world.

          Which highlights one of the differences. Japan's rise a was shock to some industries. But Japan with a population of 125M is a mouse compared to China's 1300M. China a pig in the Python. If Japan was a shock to some industries, you'd expect China to suck other countries industries manufacturing dry right around the world, and that's what happened. But if China follows Japan's model that is a temporary thing, not worthy of the hand wringing on display in this article.

          The other difference is China isn't an open society where information flow is unrestricted by default. In fact, it's the reverse - the great firewall ensures information flow is centrally controlled by a few elites. Some things are allowed, the rest is blocked by default.

          There are those of us who believe allowing the free flow and allocation of capital (as opposed to a centrally planned economy) is the difference between the economic success of say Russia and the US. (Australia, with a mere 25M people, has a bigger economy than Russia - the effect is huge.) And there are those of us who believe the free flow of information is what similarly leads to the intellectual domination of the world.

          If you are trying to measure intellectual domination and are looking at measuring solar cell manufacturing, you are doing it wrong. Try looking at how fast brand news ideas move - like self driving cars, acceptance and eventual exploitation of the good points of crypto currencies, or asking yourself whose movies dominate the world. Or which social platform. If you use social platform, things look particularly bad for China. To their credit did produce a new social platform that challenged the US giants (TikTok), which is quite a achievement. But then it moved out of China, because the restrictions on information flow there made continued operation untenable. If your metric is how fast and easily ideas flow through society, that by any measure is a disaster.

      • by ceoyoyo ( 59147 )

        I guess you missed the bits in the summary about the PhD students, chip design? There are lots of stories about patents too.

        But keep sitting on those laurels. I'm sure it will work out fine.

      • by AleRunner ( 4556245 ) on Friday December 10, 2021 @05:29PM (#62067533)

        They seem to have forgotten that manufacturing technical goods is MANUFACTURING,

        Agree with everything dmb says. But also there's a real problem with the contempt for manufacturing. Manufacturing is where the US got it's lead over Europe in the 1930s and beyond. Manufacturing is the basic "making things" which gives you real practical experience to temper and correct your theoretical knowledge. Manufacturing is the basic thing which makes raw materials available for more advanced processes. Manufacturing is the supply of low skill jobs connected to high knowledge industries which brings people with more basic education back into contributing to the knowledge of the nation.

        The whole idea that you can move up the chain whilst abandoning the base - the idea behind Thatcherism and Reaganomics - just doesn't work in real life. Like a software architect who hasn't programmed for 20 years, or a building architect who doesn't understand enough civil engineering to know the materials he's working with, your designs become fantasy, meaning that the practical engineers at the manufacturing site have to do corrections. As they do those corrections they learn everything that is in your mind, together with a whole set of skills you will never understand.

        I do not see any stats for technical advancements, papers published or patents given

        In 2020 China overtook the US in terms of both science papers published and patents filed. You might argue about average quality, but the direction is clear and some excellent work is included.

        • Not necessarily contempt for manufacturing, it is contempt for everybody taking the bait, not bothering to read the heading and getting fooled into thinking that Chinese increase in manufacturing is a increase in technology

          It is just fear mongering based on spin, and y'all took the bait

          • by AleRunner ( 4556245 ) on Friday December 10, 2021 @06:14PM (#62067741)

            The actual head of US space operations stated that China is advancing at twice the rate of the US [cnn.com]. This article is not tricking us into believing something that's untrue. This is just offering a potential explanation of something we already knew. The US needs to get it together and actually start to value science. Global warming denialists; anti-maskers and anti-vaxxers; other anti-science groups; these are not just funny idiots. They are a present and serious danger to the survival of the US.

            • Re: (Score:3, Informative)

              Global warming denialists; anti-maskers and anti-vaxxers; other anti-science groups; these are not just funny idiots. They are a present and serious danger to the survival of the US.

              Your finger is pointing to the right, but there are plenty of anti-intellectuals on the left as well, such as California's "woke math" - because focusing only on the "correct answer" is supporting the white male patriarchy.

              College professors blast "woke math" [nypost.com]

              • Looking at this, as with most other "woke" complaints there seems to be lots less to the truth than is being pushed in intellectually subnormal rags like the NY Post - the idea being that calculus will be banned in schools, which is not true [ca.gov]. Don't confuse the many years ongoing collapse in standards of maths education caused by trying to treat teaching as a burger flipping exercise where you can take any idiot of the street and expect them to teach children with something abstract and difficult.

                What's sa

            • On that same token, we could probably do with less gender studies graduates and more STEM graduates. Despite the common talking points about how humanities graduates are needed, they don't build economies, and they don't make us more competitive. The only thing they're really good at building is student debt.

        • In 2020 China overtook the US in terms of both science papers published and patents filed. You might argue about average quality, but the direction is clear and some excellent work is included.

          Proving nothing. There may be excellent work, but a large amount is fake research [science.org].

        • Let me know when China manufactures an EUV fab.
    • by AmiMoJo ( 196126 )

      Google doesn't operate in China. Its services are blocked.

      Apple and Microsoft do business there, but Google chose not to.

      • by drnb ( 2434720 ) on Friday December 10, 2021 @05:46PM (#62067615)

        Google doesn't operate in China. Its services are blocked. Apple and Microsoft do business there, but Google chose not to.

        You are a little out of date.

        "Aug. 1, 2018
        Google withdrew from China eight years ago to protest the country’s censorship and online hacking. Now, the internet giant is working on a censored search engine for China that will filter websites and search terms that are blacklisted by the Chinese government"
        https://www.nytimes.com/2018/0... [nytimes.com]

        • Yep. Google realized all they care about money, and it would be much cheaper to replace workers that have morals than to bail on China completely.
        • by AmiMoJo ( 196126 )

          You are years out of date. There was staff revolt and the project was cancelled.

          To this day Google services are blocked in China, including search.

  • by oldgraybeard ( 2939809 ) on Friday December 10, 2021 @04:50PM (#62067365)
    to fund their research for them. They are just so poor! As government sits on trillions in debt these companies are sitting on trillion dollar valuations with money flowing from fountains for all the public servants, shakers and movers involved.
  • Unsurprising (Score:5, Insightful)

    by dskoll ( 99328 ) on Friday December 10, 2021 @04:52PM (#62067367) Homepage

    Given the dismal state of the US education system, a gridlocked system of government, entrepreneurs without long-term vision, and the intense polarization of US society, it's not surprising that a centrally-governed country with a leadership capable of implementing long-term planning and forcing its people to go along will achieve technical leadership.

    I fear that dark days are ahead for the state of democracy in the world. I would not be surprised if China eventually became the sole superpower and that is not a pleasant thought to contemplate. For all of its faults, if I had to pick a superpower to basically control the world, I'd definitely pick the USA over China or Russia.

    • US needs to fix student loans

      • US needs to fix student loans

        No, the average student loan debt is $35K. The figures that are 5x to 10x that are largely idiots that went to big name private schools on "credit".

        What needs to be fixed are the students.
        (1) Not everyone needs to go to a 4-year college, trade school at the community college is also a good plan.
        (2) Unless rich or on scholarship, stick to State U.
        (3) If working on some worthless vanity or pseudo-science degree don't expect any monetary benefit.
        (4) Unless mommy/daddy can pay the tuition the 4-year full

        • by burtosis ( 1124179 ) on Friday December 10, 2021 @06:43PM (#62067881)

          No, the average student loan debt is $35K. The figures that are 5x to 10x that are largely idiots that went to big name private schools on "credit".

          Half of America can’t afford a $400 emergency, 35k is a life changing amount of debt to remove.

          Only morons would want to make education unobtainable and seek to create generations of ignorant people bumbling through life unable to reach their potential. Nothing spells long term disaster like making education unaffordable which is why most first world countries educate their citizens for a small fraction of the out of pocket cost Americans pay. University level education should be 100% paid for by the government for any that can pass the entrance qualifications. In fact, countries that provide free college [worldpopul...review.com]

          are among the the best places in the world to live [usnews.com].

        • I used to disagree with the last part of your statement; the life experiences were a big part of the benefit of going away to university. Today though the cost really needs to be part of the equation, and a real career plan should be a factor.

          At the same time though, I have always supported trade schools. Getting through your apprenticeship in the same time as a BS, ending up with your tools and no debt really puts you ahead at least until about 40. By that time it is good idea to have at least some supplem

    • Re:Unsurprising (Score:4, Informative)

      by garyisabusyguy ( 732330 ) on Friday December 10, 2021 @05:01PM (#62067409)

      No, simply no

      China supports low cost manufacturing, which incurs long term costs like damage to water table, lung damage from pollution, and stress of long hours at the rat race

      And, in the end, the US can decide that they need the national security of local production and voila, manufacturing increases in America

      But, do we really want it?

    • Re: (Score:3, Informative)

      by Dorianny ( 1847922 )
      The "dismal state of the US education system" means the wide disparities between good and bad school districts. China doesn't give a damn about educating the poor. As far as Higher Education is concerned the grafting, nepotism, repression of thought that permeates Chinese Institutions really doesn't work well for fostering innovative talent.
  • No worries, the finance bros will save us! And maybe bitcoin? Probably will end up supplying the world with the two things we are best at making: media and bombs.

  • by 140Mandak262Jamuna ( 970587 ) on Friday December 10, 2021 @04:53PM (#62067375) Journal
    Not in the god forsaken islands of the Pacific.

    Not in the snowy exurbs of Moscow.

    Not on the beaches of Normandy.

    The place we really actually won the war was the factories back home. We lost the entire navy in the Pearl Harbor, save three aircraft carriers. We had over 25 aircraft carriers at the end of the war. It was an war of attrition, and we could sustain a lot more equipment loss than the enemy.

    In a war with China, it will be over before it even starts. One surprise attack, next Pearl Harbor style, we would not be able to replace even the random destroyer bombed by pilot mistaking it for a battleship.

    • One sour note to forcing manufacturing back to the US for national security reasons is that it will raise costs on consumer goods, resulting in lower quality of life in US, and inflation

      • Re: (Score:3, Interesting)

        by drnb ( 2434720 )

        One sour note to forcing manufacturing back to the US for national security reasons is that it will raise costs on consumer goods, resulting in lower quality of life in US, and inflation

        As if a lower quality of life and economic woes will not be a result of Chinese Communist Party control of the global economy.

        Better domestic employment offsets those high prices. Profits staying in the US and being spent domestically would have a multiplier effect on the US economy and infrastructure. As today's profits are having such an effect modernizing China's cities and military. You can build their economy or you can build your own.

        • Economies of scale and manufacturing efficiency dictate that the entire worlds supply of whatever good be made in a single facility. Unfortunately this all eggs in one basket approach has many downsides that go beyond national security. You’d have thunk we learned our lesson when a single flood in Thailand crippled the hard drive market for half a year. But nope, we now have a world wide pandemic that blocked up supply chains which were fine tuned for just in time with no redundancy or cushion.

          Ne
          • supply chains which were fine tuned for just in time with no redundancy or cushion.

            They weren't fine-tuned for Just In Time. They were stripped to running on the bare minimum.

            Just In Time grew out of companies like Toyota trying to manage resource shortages by reducing waste due to stockpiling, which hid manufacturing faults. Companies like Toyota would try to source from as many partnerships as possible so that they could keep things flowing even when unforeseen things happened to some of them.

            But then the West took hold of Just In Time, and only saw the cost-cutting aspect and not

    • I have to imagine that the someone in the US government realizes that we're getting to a use-it-or-lose-it stage - where our supremacy is going to be extinguished across the board.

      Thus, I'd expect that the US is more likely to do a Pearl Harbor style surprise attack, not China, if war actually breaks out.

      The US just backed down from a confrontation over Ukraine; it'll be interesting to see if that happens with Taiwan or not.

    • by AmiMoJo ( 196126 )

      You both have nukes. A full scale war is hopefully unlikely.

    • At Pearl Harbor, those battleships that got hit hard were essentially support ships. The true offensive power of the Pacific Fleet were those aircraft carriers, and the submarines. Destroyers were also a valuable offensive component much of the time. But not the Battleships, they were largely air defense for the carriers or gunfire support for the Marines and Army ashore. Battleship surface warfare was a rare event, mostly an outlier around Guadalcanal.

      And most of the battleships hit hard at Pearl Harbor
    • by Whateverthisis ( 7004192 ) on Friday December 10, 2021 @06:28PM (#62067817)
      Your statement is a common one, but not entirely true.

      The Navy had 3 Yorktown carriers when Pearl Harbor happened, but the Essex class was already underway. People often like to claim that America has lost the industrial capacity to build weapons and logistics like World War 2, but they also completely undervalue the fact that many knew a war was coming for a long time, both sides were arming for decades. The Naval Expansion Act of 1938 authorized increasing the size of the Navy by 20% at the time, including up to 7 aircraft carriers. 2 Essex class carriers were already under construction when Pearl Harbor happened, 6 Iowa class hadwhich means the design, the components, and the supply chain was already ready to move, just buy more and accelerate which is what happened.

      More importantly, Pearl Harbor did not cripple the US fleet. The carriers were available which was admittedly fortunate, but no one understood the importance of carriers at the time. But Pearl Harbor was a terrible place to attack the US fleet; within 1 year 6 of the 8 battleships knocked out were back in service as were a majority of the support ships.

      People also assume that the US has lost industrial capability. That's because they see the decline of importance in the US economy of manufacturing. The US' industrial capacity has actually increased significantly since WW2 according to the US Industrial Production Index. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/INDPRO So the US actually has quite a few factories of all types; it's just that services has become so much more widespread and grow more quickly than industrial output that it makes up a much larger portion of the economy. You might argue "well, but the parts come from overseas!" So what? That's the exact problem that caused World War 2; the US had many overseas "partners" and Japan wanted to own that because they needed parts and raw material from overseas too. Germany was in some ways in the same boat.

      Then you make the claim "in a war with CHina, it will be over before it even starts. One surprise attack, next Pearl Harbor style, we wouldn't be able to replace our fleet and it'd be over."

      Wow. First of all, a surprise attack like Pearl Harbor would be seen well within the US' ability to respond. In World War 2, radar was in it's infancy, the Japanese fleet could sneak up as the Pacific was so big it was hard to guard even with a good set of picketts. Today we have satellites that track everything every military does. the only possibility of a sneak attack is independent actors in a terror-style attack, but there's no way one could be large enough to cripple the US' ability to wage war.

      But more importantly, any country attacking the US would shoot itself in the foot. Too much of the rest of the world depends on the US Market. If the US just chooses to stop buying things from those ocuntries, they don't have the domestic consumption to maintain their economies; they'd have to print money to keep their armies around which would cause inflation and tank their economy. China has such massive debt problems right now that they'd capitulate because they ran out of food and bullets and gas before they broke the US in a conflict.

      People need to get it together. The world is different now than the days of WW2. That kind of conflict is so expensive to so many countries that it's just exceedingly unlikely when there are other ways to achieve your aims.

    • "We lost the entire navy in the Pearl Harbor, save three aircraft carriers"
      What?
      US Navy in late 1941:
      17 battleships (+15 under construction)
      7 aircraft carriers (+11 under construction)
      18 heavy cruisers (+8 Baltimore class under construction)
      19 light cruisers (+32 Cleveland class under construction)
      6 anti-aircraft cruisers (4 in service, 2 nearly ready)
      171 destroyers (+188 Benson, Livermore and Fletcher class under construction)
      114 submarines (+79 Gato class under construction)

      At Pearl we lost...2 BBs and a

  • Per Capita? (Score:5, Insightful)

    by LarryRiedel ( 141315 ) on Friday December 10, 2021 @04:53PM (#62067379)
    China has more the 4x the population of the US, so for a lot of those numbers, it should be surprising if the US is even close to China. I'd be more interested in per capita numbers, or a comparison of China vs the entire West, which is the real competition.
    • China has more the 4x the population of the US, so for a lot of those numbers, it should be surprising if the US is even close to China. I'd be more interested in per capita numbers, or a comparison of China vs the entire West, which is the real competition.

      The nation is suffering rapid population decay and aging. It is not just a numbers game. OTH, the US population is still growing and will grow in this century (and a few immigration tweaks could see the US get to half a billion citizens by 2070.

      It is quite possible that China can come to dominate the US in the tech space, but it will not be just because of the population. Why? A brutally centralized government that can gear the largest market in the world into a high-tech war economy path, forcing compani

      • Why? A brutally centralized government that can gear the largest market in the world into a high-tech war economy path, forcing companies to shift towards heavy industries and high-value service with military value and abandon anything related to social media or consumerism. There are hints this is where the CCP has put China after cracking down on Alibaba and other too-independent tech companies.

        The US still massively outspends every other country on the military, and has more resources dedicated to military industries than every other country.

        CCP is trying to manage its economy to prevent any single entity from gaining too much market power, but that's not the same thing as trying to limit consumerism. The last thing CCP wants is for people to be poor or completely powerless against employers, because unsatisfied people means eventual revolt. There is no way CCP would risk ruining China's econo

    • by marcle ( 1575627 )

      Per capita doesn't really matter if you're talking about the number of scientists or technologists, or the amount of money being spent on research or manufacturing. Twice the technologists will still produce twice the results -- or at least a substantially greater amount. Even if it doesn't trickle down to the masses, it still makes for a formidable rival.

    • And huge population problems. The CCPs past mucking about with the population using one child and such has distorted their society. They have way to few young girls and way way to many young men. What the CCP has created is a population built for a big bloody war.
      • Or on a more positive note they could be gearing up to send lots and lots of people in to space. That would work also to correct some of the numbers.
    • by hey! ( 33014 )

      Yes, going by raw population it seems quite reasonable to expect China to be a big deal, and surprising that the US with less than 5% of the world's people has been such a big deal in science and technology.

      But even China, with around 18% of the world's population, can't reasonably expect to be as dominant as the US has been in STEM fields over the past seventy years. In fact there are very, good reasons to doubt China will manage to continue punching *at* its weight, much less above it. It boils down to

  • This might be a Good Thing. I doubt it. If SpaceX becomes Chinesium, that's the end of free market spacefaring progress.

  • We were warned (Score:5, Insightful)

    by systemd-anonymousd ( 6652324 ) on Friday December 10, 2021 @05:07PM (#62067437)

    Remember like a decade or two ago when people said it's a bad idea to move all electronics manufacturing to China, and the counter-argument was "well, intellectual property and research are far more important"? Doesn't seem like such a good idea, now that the obvious has happened.

    It's absolutely preposterous that we don't have entire cities dedicated to cutting-edge electronics manufacturing. Outsourcing is a bullshit scam designed to make profitable companies pocket even more money at the expense of lost jobs, lower wages, and helping adversaries.

    • Re:We were warned (Score:5, Insightful)

      by ceoyoyo ( 59147 ) on Friday December 10, 2021 @05:33PM (#62067549)

      It's not just that. The developing world, including China, sees education, and technical education in particular, as their way forward. In Ethiopia if you've got a PhD you're highly respected. In North America people ask why you didn't do the sensible thing and go into finance.

      Developing countries pour everything they have into increasing their capabilities, including their human expertise. Developed countries, to varying degree, spend much, much more on generating luxuries instead.

      It's basically the same thing the US did to England. Steal their know how, use it to build a domestic base, then innovate right past the complacent old buggers.

  • I've seen nothing produced in China that can be described using the word "quality" . I look forward to all the dollar stores closing down so I can buy a quality wrench that is made in USA. FWIW when I say that I don't consider Taiwan to be part of "China". Taiwanese tools and products are outstanding.
    • by gillbates ( 106458 ) on Friday December 10, 2021 @05:54PM (#62067647) Homepage Journal

      I have.

      In power tools, the Chinese are building higher quality power tools for lower prices than their domestic counterparts. The reason I haven't replaced my workshop of Chinese-built power tools with their American counterparts is because, even after 20 years, none of them have failed.

      I can still remember when the average life of a power drill or saw (American made) was about 2-3 years. China didn't steal our motor-building know-how; they improved it.

      • Been using my Chinese (everlast) multiprocess mig/tig/stick welder for a year now, works great and cost 1/3 of what an American brand like Miller or Lincon costs and it’s not had a single problem. In fact, it’s great with a stable smooth arc even at low power. Customer service sucks, I hear, but at that price who would buy American?
        • by sfcat ( 872532 )
          That's nice that you have a hobby building stuff in your garage. I like to do the same thing. However, whenever I have to go to a real building site with professional carpenters (who are often Mexican or from Latin America), they only use US tools. And I know why, I've actually broken a Chinese made wrench before (snapped in two). I've never even heard of that happening to a US made tool. I asked the South African who I was working beside at the time why it happened, his response..."Its Chinese made ju
          • One wonders how China can manufacture so many things if they can't manufacture decent hand tools.

            Did it not occur to you that "China" isn't a manufacturer, but that companies manufacture, and that the ones you bought happened to be from crappy manufacturing companies?

            Should we judge all US tool manufacturing with their crappiest examples? The Germans probably look with disdain at American tools, just as you do to "Chinese", on the same principles.
  • by bjwest ( 14070 ) on Friday December 10, 2021 @05:14PM (#62067469)
    Thanks for allowing our industry to move offshore.
    • Thanks for allowing our industry to move offshore.

      Even assuming this all started with Reagan (who had a Democratic Senate by the way), his term of office ended in 1988 and there have been three Democratic Presidents since then, some of whom had a Democratic majorities in both houses of Congress for some of their terms.

      • by bjwest ( 14070 )

        Thanks for allowing our industry to move offshore.

        Even assuming this all started with Reagan (who had a Democratic Senate by the way), his term of office ended in 1988 and there have been three Democratic Presidents since then, some of whom had a Democratic majorities in both houses of Congress for some of their terms.

        I don't care what kind of Senate he had, he still implemented the damn thing. Back then they were more prone to be by-partisan, but I can still blame Reagan for the policies and laws he put in place, even though there have been presidents since that could've changed them.

        • ... three Democratic Presidents ...

          Let's remember that Clinton, may have beaten down the US national debt but he otherwise, followed the Republican rulebook: Privatization of student loans, hand-outs to 'small government' failures, 'tough on crime' legislation, and his healthcare initiative was killed quietly and quickly.

  • How soon will China lead the US in water supply and sanitation? [wikipedia.org]

  • only six million Americans had access to 5G with speeds of 60 megabits a second

    I must be one of them. I ran a speed test on my phone a couple days ago and the download rate was 487 mbps.

  • ASML (Score:3, Insightful)

    by rsBS35$-ax ( 7476630 ) on Friday December 10, 2021 @06:32PM (#62067833)
    Sorry to say, but without Netherland's ASML you're not going anywhere right now. That might be changing - but thats the situation as we have it right now.
  • by xlsior ( 524145 ) on Saturday December 11, 2021 @01:45AM (#62068765) Homepage
    Japanese cars & electronics used to be a joke too, until they weren't. Sure, much of it may have started as mediocre copies of Western tech, but they invested a fortune on R&D and greatly improved on much of it over time. to the point that the Japanese car industry is now eating Detroit for breakfast, lunch and dinner.

    Absolutely no reason why China couldn't repeat the same.

    Contrary to what many Americans seem to believe, "American exceptionalism" doesn't really exist. The main reason the US was able to get ahead of the rest of the world technologically was because it was the only major industrialized country that didn't have most of its infrastructure and manufacturing base bombed flat during WWII, and as a result of that it didn't lose decades having to rebuild everything.
  • by Lost Penguin ( 636359 ) on Saturday December 11, 2021 @05:30AM (#62069033)
    With the current neocons wanting to cripple the tech and education industry, along with defiance of facts and reasoning, I suspect China is already ahead.

The rule on staying alive as a program manager is to give 'em a number or give 'em a date, but never give 'em both at once.

Working...