US Builds New Software Tool To Predict Actions that Could Draw China's Ire

U.S. military commanders in the Pacific have built a software tool to predict how the Chinese government will react to U.S. actions in the region like military sales, U.S.-backed military activity and even congressional visits to hotspots like Taiwan. From a report: Deputy Secretary of Defense Kathleen Hicks was briefed on the new tool during a visit to the United States Indo-Pacific Command in Hawaii on Tuesday. "With the spectrum of conflict and the challenge sets spanning down into the grey zone. What you see is the need to be looking at a far broader set of indicators, weaving that together and then understanding the threat interaction," Hicks said in an interview aboard a military jet en route to California. The tool calculates "strategic friction," a defense official said. It looks at data since early 2020 and evaluates significant activities that had impacted U.S.-Sino relations. The computer-based system will help the Pentagon predict whether certain actions will provoke an outsized Chinese reaction. In October, the Chinese military condemned the United States and Canada for each sending a warship through the Taiwan Strait, saying they were threatening peace and stability in the region. The incident and others like it have fueled demand for the tool, the U.S. official said, to ensure the United States does not inadvertently upset China with its actions.

Of course

[heikkile]

Naturally a "software tool", with enough buzzwords like AI and blockchain, must be so much better than a few experienced analysts.

Re:Of course

[ls671]

Furthermore, it sounds like strategies employees develop to make sure they don't piss off a touchy boss. Has China become US boss? Does China take the same precautions not to piss off the US or has the US become so docile that China don't need to take the same precaution?

This sounds kind of strange to me...

Re:

[Anonymous Coward]

Furthermore, it sounds like strategies employees develop to make sure they don't piss off a touchy boss.

Or your perhaps wanting to stay ahead your largest strategic threat.

The businessmen of both the United States and China have no desire to see armed conflict between the two nations, you know why? It's really FUCKING BAD FOR BUSINESS.

Re:

[AmiMoJo]

China mostly just retaliates in kind. The US has a democracy conference and criticizes China, China has a democracy conference and criticizes the US.

I'll save them some time and processing power

[GameboyRMH]

cat action.txt | grep -o -i 'winnie the pooh\|xinjiang\|slavery\|human rights\|june 4th\|autonomy\|democracy\|freedom of navigation\|senkaku' | wc -l

There's your China anger score. You can wire the millions to my account, or send them in an untraceable cryptocurrency if that would be a sanctions violation...

Re:Of course

[allcoolnameswheretak]

What the world needs to do is stop giving in to China's bullshit and bullying.
China's strategy has always been to react maximum offended and with maximum retaliate as soon as anybody even dares criticize any tiny part of China's policy. Never playing by the rules itself but demanding from everyone else play by China's rules.

Meanwhile China brutalizes its minority cultures, broke the agreement on Hong Kong's "guaranteed" freedoms. Threatens Taiwan with war. Bullies its neighbors with their claims on the South China sea. Drowns their own population in anti-western propaganda. Bullies third world countries in Africa and beyond into contracts to exploit their natural resources. Continues their policy of intellectual property theft and spying by their forced collaborations of western companies to do business in China, using protectionist measures against tech companies like Google and Facebook while crying foul when western companies sanction Chinese companies like Wuahei. And so far the west and the world sucks up all this bullshit because they fear being cut out of the huge Chinese market.
It's not worth it, and now that China has grown economically and in power thanks to those bullshit practices, it will only get bolder and more ambitious as it tests the limits of what it can get away with.

Re:

[waspleg]

They're currently busy looting Africa, the Olympic boycotts are guaranteed to hurt their ultra thin skin. I hope there are more.

Plausable deniability

[Comboman]

The software tool is better than human "tools" because when it inevitably screws up, it's a just a "computer bug" rather than having a person to take the blame and get demoted or fired. And of course, the person deciding what "learning data" to feed it can easily bias the decisions towards their own pet theories while still maintaining the illusion of objectivity.

Re:

[Anonymous Crowded]

I'm wondering if there are just too FEW responses to roll them up with a traditional magic 8 ball.

Re:

[jythie]

Who do you think the users are? Since the piece does not mention which tool it is I can not say this with certainty, but in general it is analysts who are making use of these tools like this, usually a bunch of differnt ones and then they look at the range of results.

Re:

[jonadab]

Also, it's high time we stop caring what will "anger China" (i.e., annoy the Chinese government). If they're determined to be upset, they'll find *something* to complain about, so who cares.

let's play global thermonuclear war

[Joe_Dragon]

What side do you want?

1. USA
2. China
3. Russia
4. UK
5. France
6. India
7. Pakistan
8. Israel
9. North Korea

Re:

[ffkom]

You can play the great classic online here: Nuclear War (1989) [archive.org].

One of the funniest games ever made.

Re:let's play global thermonuclear war

[Tablizer]

General Milley potentially saved our caboose. There are many accounts that Don was ranting and raging over his election loss (more than his normal), threatening everything and everybody, so China was very nervous, as their spies probably knew about the rants.

Milley saw that China's military communication channels were very active, as if spooked, and felt compelled to call their military leaders and calm them down, saying Don is just all bark and no bite, and that his military will make sure all proper procedures are followed if Don calls any strikes.

Thank You Milley for being the adult in the room!

So what, it...

[skam240]

So what, it just flags anything that doesn't involve kowtowing to emperor Xi?

Outside of subservience I don't know what doesn't piss off China nowadays.

How much did they pay Palantir to do this, and did

[tekram]

the Pentagon use the same tool for the Taliban? All these battle field intelligence analytics are just that, crap. Let the US and Chinese commanders in the region have regular meetings and they will find their common ground. A software is not going to do it.

Hmm

[TuballoyThunder]

On can hope that they did a better job with the algorithm than Zillow...

Appeasement AI

[waspleg]

This is fucking sad.

wtf

[DarkOx]

I mean its pretty easy to guess what will piss off the Chinese, basically any offensive asset any where in, on, or over their territorial waters (or what they claim as ) will piss them off. Oh wait that has every nation from the 18th century onward - I don't know why anyone needs software for that.

Then there is Taiwan, sell them any weapons systems defensive or otherwise that can actually counter Chinese weapons systems meaningfully and they'll be pissed about it. - derp

As to the answer of 'will the by angry enough to do anything' -> irrelevant because that inst how the CCP operates. The CCP only considers if there is some opportunity to press a strategic advantage and if their current macro situation makes it a better or worse time as compared with the first world to increase or decrease conflict. So the answer to will they do anything is always 'maybe' unless the question is something so obviously proactive no sensible self interested power would ignore it - then the answer is of course. Again nobody needs software with that.

The military should invest in enhancing strike and defensive capabilities and not consider what the the CCP thinks about it. That is just playing their game - where they get a little stronger every day and we get a little more distracted until they decide to take over fully as the primary power. Its a dumb and self defeating.

The diplomatic policy should be "welp to bad this is what we are doing so either go pout in your corner or shoot at us, but if you shoot we are going to shoot back"

Re:

[Anonymous Coward]

I don't understand the logic of China's argument that "oh that bit of land was at some point in history ruled by us so it\s definitely China forevermore"
By that logic, any other nation that has historically ruled some part of modern day China should be able to likewise claim that those areas still belong to them...

As for how to piss off China - I don't need software to help me with that.

Here's a short list.

* Winnie the pooh
* Taiwan is an independent country
* Tien Amin square massacre really happened
* Hong

Re:wtf

[layabout]

refer to the mainland as "West Taiwan" or "mainland Taiwan"

ring ringâ¦

[objectboy]

Weâ(TM)ve been trying to reach you about your countyâ(TM)s extended warranty.

Re:

[Tablizer]

30 times, the b@st@rds. Please troll them and waste their time and money.

Head cannon(sic)

[thegreatbob]

I'm going to envision this software in my mind as being built with a UI similar to the 1990s pre-flash "punch your boss" and "pie billgates!" [gameclassification.com] games, with the current CCP chairman poorly animated basically just saying "NO" and making angry faces.

Three Words

[chill]

Magic Eight Ball

Re:

[Tablizer]

Nine Ball is due out soon. It has 5G and quantum blockchain!

tldr; tax dollar appropriation

[Arethan]

So the US military gave someone a bunch of tax dollars for something that probably doesn't actually work. (After all, what treasure trove of training data could they possibly have used to train any AI based system, or to validate a non-AI assumption-based model.)

Some general either owed someone a favor or wanted a kickback. End of story.

Someone wake me up when government agencies with little oversight magically stop wasting/stealing money; now that'll be news.

Re:

[jythie]

Well, for starters, it might or might not be ML/DL type AI, so it may or may not use 'training data' in the first place. It might be machine learning, it might be systems dynamics, it could be ooda loop, etc.

Validation is not even all that difficult. Regardless of if it is 'learned' or hand rolled, you still simply take historical examples and run them through to see how well the metrics match actual events. For instance, the various Crusades make for surprisingly good tests.

The Code

[dcw3]

The only trouble is that it requires a Huawei laptop to run on.

Oh this was a simple problem.

[Chas]

Will any action we take on the international stage piss off China?

Yes?
Yes?

So much for plausible deniability and what a waste

[Wokan]

So now China can just say we are purposely provoking them after one of their APTs adjusts the tool to trick the US into allowing actions that provoke them. Or they can just go low tech and overreact to everything.

If you need a computer to tell you if you're annoying someone, you've got a bigger problem to solve.

Welcome to Biden

[gacattac]

People are somehow surprised that a globalist, the opposite of a nationalist, take globalist actions and follow globalist ideas.

Winnie-A-Tron 9000

[Tablizer]

or Pooh-A-Tron 9000

Reaction of US is easy for China to predict!

[Great_Geek]

The converse problem does not need any study, a child could do it:

• Chinese company is successful, US will claim IP theft
• If company is still successful, US will claim Human Right violation
• In any case, black list the company on National Security Ground
• Send more Aircraft Carriers

Is there really a predictable pattern?

[jenningsthecat]

I rather thought China did everything strategically, playing political chess and trying to anticipate many moves ahead. In other words, they might react with "ire" to something that in fact doesn't bother them or even amuses them. And they might not react at all to something they find deeply disturbing.

Is whatever algorithm or "AI" they're using capable of figuring that out? And now that the US has tipped its hand, China might deliberately react differently just to thwart this thing's "learning". Even if th

Re:

[jythie]

Well, depends on it's objective. The public data is pretty sparse. It might be trying to figure out what bothers the leadership, what bothers the people, or what actions might result in what response. All of them are asking differnt questions but there is no reason you could not build a system to address any of them.

Simply rebuild manufacturing infrastructue

[ITRambo]

Build even more efficient mega-factories in the West to lessen reliance on Chinese manufacturing. This will take years. And yet, no Western corporation wants to be the first. Government leadership may be needed to overcome the extreme profit-now-over-all-else thinking. This way, when China decides they've had enough and can raise prices or create ever increasing shortages, we can make stuff locally again. I don't expect this to happen until China has gone too far in alienating everyone else. Western corporate leadership is sociopathic and only looking out for how much they can make for themselves. They have no loyaty to their country or their customers, only to bigger and bigger profits.

Wasn't there a word for these in olden times?

[argStyopa]

I think they were called what, diplomats? Analysts?
You know, human experts in fields of diplomacy and foreign states that could be relied on for their judgement and experience to reasonably predict what other states would pursue.

That was before 2016, when the US State Dept decided its key role was The Resistance to the Orange Baboon, and abandoned the relative objectivity that should protect functional government agencies from the vicissitudes of political crap flinging around Washington.

Anyway, I guess an algorithm can't be worse. State were such fucking morons that they entirely missed the collapse of the USSR, and whose 'subtle, nuanced' view of the mideast has for 30 years and successive administrations been "fling a cruise missile at it".

Re:

[jythie]

Generally the users of these kinds of systems are the analysts. They both provide the inputs and interpret the outputs. Generally they run a bunch of these models in parallel to see what the range of outcomes might be since all of them are rather incomplete.

Why?

[shaitand]

Why exactly are we tiptoeing around the genocidal maniacs? This is no different than WW2... here it is, the chance to stop them for the RIGHT reasons and not just stopping holocaust as a byproduct.

Re:

[shaitand]

The US sent an extremely precise drone strike to take out the vehicle of the leader of covert guards from Iran after they attacked our troops in a military base in Iraq. Collateral damage included nobody who wasn't in the car and it barely marked the sidewalk. Oh and historically they helped out one side or the other among people who were already fighting as part of a multi-millenium holy war when they thought one side would benefit their interests more than another or that strengthening a leader would help

Easy!

[opps sorry my bad]

Call China "Red China". Or point out the fact that Taiwan is an independent nation, that it was a Japanese territory for hundreds of years prior. There are many others, but, these send them into nearly violent conniption fits. Love pointing that out when my Chinese coworkers start in with their garbage about Taiwan being a "rouge providence" of China. They complained to management that I'm a racist, hate Chinese, and used racial slurs against them. I showed them a photo of my Chinese wife and our kids and t

Re:

[rlwinm]

It infuriates them when you call China "Western Taiwan." LOL

Re:

[waspleg]

This is also my favorite thing. Taiwan is the real RoC and always was.

Re:

[rlwinm]

Yup! I've worked with many Taiwanese engineers. They are fantastic people. Both in personality and skill.

Re:

[opps sorry my bad]

I love that and am going to steal it, thank you! :D

Source code leaked!

[Dr.Dubious DDQ]

10 INPUT "Type in the action to predict China's response to:"; A$
20 PRINT "You have hurt the feelings of the Chinese people."
30 GOTO 10

Re: Source code leaked!

[BlackHorse]

We have a winner!

Easy program.

[istartedi]

int main(void) {
printf("Merely existing.\n");
}

Why

[robi5]

Why TF does it need machine learning etc. when China experts will tell you right away?
It's not like there are billions of actions every day.
And if the Sinologists don't have enough info, context or understanding to give good answers, then there is either intentional "randomization" of the Chinese responses (which is sensible because one should not be too predictable in an adversarial relationship) or they're not worth their keep and the US has bigger problems than using software or not

Why?

[luis_a_espinal]

Do we really need software to make these predictions? Oh, forget this question and let us ask a more important one: whose hands got greased with the contract to develop this software. With projects like these, greased hands lead to requirements.

Pretty silly idea

[mwlin1]

The idea of using a "computer software" (whether AI-based or not) is pretty moronic. Don't you Americans get it, China under Xi and the current CCP leadership will get upset at ANYTHING, from something as big as economic sanctions to something small as a tweet. This entire country --fueled by growing zealous Chinese nationalists-- acts like a giant baby and you can't really predict its behavior, much less its actions. No one in the outside can predict or control what China finds upsetting or offensive. To p

Why software?

[rlwinm]

We don't need software to know what to do. If the US, India, and Australia were to all launch simultaneously almost every population center in China could be taken out before they knew what hit them. I think for all their atrocities it's probably the best COA. Because if we don't - they will.

This could be surprisingly usefull

[Mageaere]

Along with a tool that tells you what actions everyone else would find least inoffensive to China. Find the action that appears most inoffensive to Chine in other's' opinion, while being maximally actually offensive to China. Perform that action. It helps to be a sociopath.

Don't spoof my ML model!

[mattr]

Kind of hilarious. China just needs to look at the source code! ;) It doesn't sound very smart to announce such a tool, considering that it could encourage new gaming strategies, unpredictable triggers, and drastic escalations intentionally or randomly devised just to throw off the ML model they used. If you can spoof a stop sign I am a bit scared to learn what the parallel would be in geopolitical brinksmanship.