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Education

More Than 1 Million Fewer Students Are In College, the Lowest Numbers In 50 Years (npr.org) 184

Posted by BeauHD from the historic-declines dept.
More than 1 million fewer students are enrolled in college now than before the pandemic began. NPR reports: According to new data released Thursday, U.S. colleges and universities saw a drop of nearly 500,000 undergraduate students in the fall of 2021, continuing a historic decline that began the previous fall. Compared with the fall of 2019, the last fall semester before the coronavirus pandemic, undergraduate enrollment has fallen a total of 6.6%. That represents the largest two-year decrease in more than 50 years.

The nation's community colleges are continuing to feel the bulk of the decline, with a 13% enrollment drop over the course of the pandemic. But the fall 2021 numbers show that bachelor's degree-seeking students at four-year colleges are making up about half of the shrinkage in undergraduate students, a big shift from the fall of 2020, when the vast majority of the declines were among associate degree seekers. Graduate program enrollment, which saw an increase in the fall of 2020, declined slightly, down by nearly 11,000 in the fall of 2021. Overall, enrollment in undergraduate and graduate programs has been trending downward since around 2012, but the pandemic turbocharged the declines at the undergrad level. "The easiest assumption is that they're out there working," says Doug Shapiro, who leads the research center at the National Student Clearinghouse, where the new data comes from. "Unemployment is down. The labor market is good. Wages are rising for workers in low-skilled jobs. So if you have a high school diploma, this seems like a pretty good time to be out there making some money."

"It's very tempting for high school graduates, but the fear is that they are trading a short-term gain for a long-term loss," Shapiro says. "And the longer they stay away from college, you know, life starts to happen and it becomes harder and harder to start thinking about yourself going back into a classroom."
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More Than 1 Million Fewer Students Are In College, the Lowest Numbers In 50 Years More

More Than 1 Million Fewer Students Are In College, the Lowest Numbers In 50 Years

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  • Basic reasons (Score:2, Insightful)

    by Tablizer ( 95088 )

    The job market is strong and pandemic protocols make college a PITA.

    • I was going to say that the 'job market' is making having a college education pointless. They want you to have a BA or BS for an entry-level job that doesn't even pay a living wage let alone enough over that to pay student loans. Masters and PhDs apparently aren't doing that much better. I see kids online all the time talking about things like trade schools instead because there's actually jobs in related fields and they actually pay a living wage. How are things so fucked up that having more education mean
  • The return on investment is horrible for almost every degree.
    • All told it was about $220,000. That's room and board, tuition, and transportation plus money on the side to keep them from going stir crazy or taking a part-time job when they needed to be studying because the workload in modern universities is much higher than when we were kids. Companies pushed hard to increase the workload because they didn't want to have to train at all. So in addition to all the kind of classes I had to take when I went at a half dozen other courses a year that are specifically job tr

      • Re: (Score:3, Insightful)

        by burtosis ( 1124179 )
        You do realize that that 220k put into an investment vehicle could easily earn over 1.2 million in the same timeframe without any of the work right? It’s even taxed at less than half the rate of income tax at the moment.

        You need to count the zero dollar earning time for the degree that can be 8 years which adds up given the head start skipping college provides. Plus the 1.2m is probably in a high demand field where you are basically guaranteed to make it back eventually if that’s your life c
        • I agree we need to lower costs, maybe in a model similar to what I had which was if you were poor, and you made a B or better average, tuition was waived. And I would probably add one more, only certain paths are eligible. Paths that are going to actually get you a paying job. But here is the thing, society has totally screwed up the purpose of college. It is not a "thing" in itself. Well, maybe for the wealthy it is. But for society in general, having a sheepskin is not an end unto itself.

          Truck drivers,
          • A huge chunk of the cost of a college degree is the health care costs for the employees.

            Roofing isn't that hard in terms of technical challenge, tools required, and difficulty. But it is extremely hot and dangerous.
            • It’s also extremely physically demanding. You can’t be a roofer more than about ten years before your body gives out on average.
            • It is the dangerous part that gets my attention. I've a 2 story on a slope, so back side is 2.5+ stories up. Falling would be death or paralysis. I'll pay for the expert who knows how to not fall off. I also pay for gas line work. Same thing, not hard, but a booboo is boom.
        • It's even worse when you consider that the 220k is debt
      • Well said! Everyone I know feels the same way. I wish I could mod this up.

        • Everyone I know feels the same way.

          If you had been successfully educated you would know that that isn't an endorsement.

      • Re: (Score:2)

        by Corbets ( 169101 )

        In Denmark, we (government) pay our kids the equivalent of 1000 USD per month to attend university, instead of charging them. Covers living expenses, if they’re staying at home, and close to it otherwise.

        But it’s a slightly different relationship we have to government over here!

        • Re: (Score:2)

          by drnb ( 2434720 )
          Very true, but its not as bad as many of the story's portray. The average student debt in the US is in the low $30Ks (a modest car level), not the $150K the media likes to portray. We also pretty much have free college given our community colleges. They generally have multiple missions, a trade school, a 2 year degree program, transfer to 4-year school program (ie take first year general ed, math, science classes and transfer). Community college tuition is so low it is effectively free in many areas.

          Wher

      • There are a number of factors involved with college. One of the biggest is the fact that the US has slammed the door shut for access to college, unless someone takes student loans out. Every other civilized country pays for their citizens' college. When I was college, the German classmate, the Chinese classmate, the French classmate, the Canadian classmate, and others had their government not just pay for college, but pay their way to a US university. Of course, there likely are stipulations like workin

      • What pisses me off is here on slashdot not only should we have a reverence for education...

        .... that tell us you don't need a college degree...

        You don't NEED a 'college degree'. What you NEED is an education to make yourself valuable to the workforce. And you, like many others, have it in your head that the ONLY education comes in a four-year college degree. In fact, you originally reference education, then switch to associating education to a college degree.

        Learning to weld is educating yourself.

        Learning to machine is educating yourself.

        Learning to become a nurse is educating yourself.

        Many of these are more appropriate for some people bas

    • Re: (Score:2)

      by jbengt ( 874751 )

      The return on investment is horrible for almost every degree.

      On the contrary, the return on investment for the two of my kids who went to college is very good. My son long ago paid off his student loans and is making great money. My daughter has a huge student loan debt, but is making enough to pay most of it off in five or 6 years. I actually think that is more common than your cynical view. However, higher education is not for everyone. My other son has a much lower-paying job, but has no debt, even

    • The return on investment is horrible for almost every degree.

      It depends on the school. Go to a state university. College is mostly what you put into it. You can get a great education at a state university. Sure, you won't have the network of rich kids that fancy name brand private schools have.

      Note that while everyone bemoans 6 figure student debt, the average student debt is actually in the low $30K. Modest car level. Choose your university wisely.

  • ...of the 500,000 obviously died from the COVID-19 vaccines.

  • Possible threshold effect (Score:3)

    by test321 ( 8891681 ) on Thursday January 13, 2022 @08:21PM (#62171323)

    I heard the same thing 10 years ago regarding Switzerland: locals get enough pays for basic jobs, feel less the need to study, so the technological companies in Switzerland are full with foreigners, while the Swiss repair HVAC and have a great-enough life.

    So the effect may not be connected to the price of studies or to calculations of return on investment, but one has to consider threshold effects. Many people, when offered the possibility of earning "enough" with a simple task, will not bother to complicate their lives to get more.

    • The average pay for an HVAC tech in the United States is $24 an hour. That's the average and it's naturally blown up by a handful of high paid employees doing HVAC work on very large buildings. The top end pay seems to be around $70,000 though.

      My kid just graduated and they started with an internship that pays $27 an hour. They'll be making 40 or 45 an hour once the internship is done. There's also been several bonuses along the way. And to be honest they're probably leaving money on the table because t

      • Re: (Score:2)

        by Cyberax ( 705495 )
        Carpenters working on construction in Oakland right now get $35 per hour starting salary, and with some seniority you can get to more than $50. Electricians start at $40.

        This is way lower than in IT, but pretty respectable for trades that require only a little training to start earning money.

      • Re: (Score:2)

        by jbengt ( 874751 )

        The average pay for an HVAC tech in the United States is $24 an hour. That's the average and it's naturally blown up by a handful of high paid employees doing HVAC work on very large buildings. The top end pay seems to be around $70,000 though.

        Don't forget that you're going to need 6 to 18 months trade school and training to work HVAC, plus an apprenticeship. Still, the top pay end on big projects in union towns would probably be in the six figures.

      • Re: (Score:2)

        by ceoyoyo ( 59147 )

        PhD research associates at my previous institution were salary capped around $30/hr. Well, $30/hr if they only worked the hours they're paid for.

        So... how do you get into this HVAC thing?

      • Re: (Score:2)

        by Aczlan ( 636310 )

        HVAC techs doing residential "brain dead" repairs (change the filter, go through the "no cooling" or "no heat" checklist, etc with no critical thinking required) are a dime a dozen, just like help desk "drones" following similar "have you rebooted your computer" checklists (with a correspondingly low payscale).
        HVAC techs who can think and independently troubleshoot are gold, are paid accordingly and don't sit more than a week between jobs unless they choose to.

        The better money IMO is Industrial Refrigeratio

      • Any decent tradesmen after a decade or two will have their own business and techs working for them

      • Re: (Score:2)

        by Klaxton ( 609696 )

        I agree, HVAC and welding are often cited as great jobs. And as anyone who has ever worked as a welder can tell you, it usually is a truly miserable job.

        You spend your days in a welding hood peering through a dark filter at a glowing puddle of molten metal. Is that the way you want to live? You have to wear heavy gloves and clothes, in hot climates it will overheat you in no time. Arc welding generates a dense plume of toxic gases, breathe it for long and it will ruin your lungs. The actinic light from weld

  • "It's very tempting for high school graduates, but the fear is that they are trading a short-term gain for a long-term loss," Shapiro says.

    Even if you're just working at $10 / hour job, after 4 years you'll have made about $60,000 and probably learned a lot on the job that makes you more valuable as an employee than most college graduates. Contrast with college and after 4 years you'll by lucky if all you owe is $60,000 in loans and don't have the same degree as thousands of others competing for the hundreds of jobs in that field. Unless you're getting a degree that's actually useful college is a trap.

    • Even if you're just working at $10 / hour job, after 4 years you'll have made about $60,000 and probably learned a lot on the job that makes you more valuable as an employee than most college graduates....

      Utter bull literally utter bull. At 10.00/hr, aka 20,800 yr assuming full 40 hr weeks and no vacation or sick days you can't rent a cheap apartment
      Not only won't you have 60K dollars, you'll be 30K in the hole to your lender for apartment rent you can't pay, or living in Mom's apartment OR on the street.

    • It's fear (Score:2, Interesting)

      by rsilvergun ( 571051 )
      I've explained elsewhere on this forum that the return on investment for college is extremely good. You are liable to make somewhere between 3 and 6 million dollars a year or more by the end of your life off a $220 to $250,000 degree. And that assumes that you'll be employed the whole time if you don't get the degree which is assuming a lot in modern America. The last two recessions basically didn't exist if you had a college degree.

      If you don't have a college degree in modern America nobody cares how

      • A piece of paper is nice - but for HR requirements you can go to the cheapest (online?) college in the country. Or even just order one from a "diploma mill" - very few places require a degree from an *accredited* university. And as you allude, you can get basically the same education with a much cheaper library card.

        The biggest benefit of going to college (which I *really* wish someone had explained to me before I focused my effort on getting a good education at an inexpensive school) is the networking an

    • >> Unless you're getting a degree that's actually useful college is a trap.
      ^^^THIS

      All we do in life has cost/benefit implications.

    • Don't flip a coin to choose your school or degree (Score:4, Insightful)

      by raymorris ( 2726007 ) on Thursday January 13, 2022 @11:52PM (#62171749) Journal

      > you'll by lucky if all you owe is $60,000 in loans and don't have the same degree as thousands of others competing for the hundreds of jobs in that field.

      Lucky? I didn't choose my degree field, or my school, by luck, by flipping a coin. I chose them *on purpose*.

      I *decided* to go to the top-3 school that costs less than $10,000 all-in. Nothing lucky about it. It's called being a little bit responsible and actually paying attention before spending $100,000.

  • * The peak college age population gets skewed upwards a bit to cover many people throughout their 20's. Full time students are on average near 22 but part time students are much older with an average near 27 and represented a third of the undergraduate population. Lots of those people decided they don't need job training later on in their careers but another huge factor is there's simply fewer people in their late 20's today. The Gen Y baby boom year was 1990 so they're aging out.

    https://upload.wikimedia.or

  • Colleges are Pricing Themselves Out of Reach (Score:5, Informative)

    by NotInKansas ( 5367383 ) on Thursday January 13, 2022 @08:34PM (#62171365)
    From 1980 to 2020, the adjusted Consumer Price Index (CPI) is 236% overall but the same adjusted CPI for college tuition is 1200%. The cost of college has risen over 5 times faster than the overall inflation index. https://www.visualcapitalist.c... [visualcapitalist.com]

    Sure there are other factors at play but I don't think college is 5 times better now. By any reasonable definition this is price gouging.

    • Exactly. At this rate only stupid people will go to college because it financially shackles the student for life (at least in the US where student loan debt cannot be discharged) with no long term payoff.

      • Re: (Score:2)

        by AmiMoJo ( 196126 )

        Problem is when companies say they are going to look at alternative qualifications or not require degrees to hire e.g. software developers, people complain that they are lowering standards and hiring people who are unqualified.

        For some professions qualifications are mandatory, e.g. medical doctor. The more they cost, the more expensive medical bills will get.

    • However, perhaps it's not just gauging but simply a cost of providing this service to the society and hence if the cost is real and so high, the country ends up undereducated. That's capitalism at work ("let market solve it"). And yea, less students means probably bigger tuition per student.

      But it's not *just* their absolute cost, just relative to the outcome (pay) for college grads. But yea, that drives students off. Though likely, M.D. students do not have that bad of a problem, despite the cost, compare

    • Re:Colleges are Pricing Themselves Out of Reach (Score:4, Informative)

      by wakeboarder ( 2695839 ) on Thursday January 13, 2022 @10:07PM (#62171577)

      A lot of the rising cost is hiring more administrators: https://www.air.org/project/de... [air.org]

      Higher education also has no reason to lower costs: https://www.forbes.com/sites/c... [forbes.com]

    • The major factors are increases in health care costs (labor is the largest portion of cost for education) and state and federal cuts (mostly state) in spending on higher education. Students today pay for a much higher percentage of the cost of college than students did in the 1970s and 1980s, and even the 1990s. So even though students from those college eras had highly-subsidized college, they aren't willing themselves to pay the taxes to support it as much now.
    • I graduated in the 80's from a University with a 4 year degree and a total outstanding debt of $17K - which at the time was considered a ridiculous amount of debt. What changed?
      The oligarchy, aka donor class, took over local state governments and slashed State share of education. When I went to college, the State funded 80% of the University budget while students and their families funded the remaining 20%, Those numbers have flipped today, declining State contributions only cover 20% of University expe

    • Re: (Score:2)

      by jbengt ( 874751 )

      Sure there are other factors at play but I don't think college is 5 times better now. By any reasonable definition this is price gouging.

      Most colleges are not exactly flush with money and many are struggling financially, so I wouldn't call it price gouging.
      A couple of those "other factors at play include":
      The costs of providing education have gone up faster than general inflation.
      The average domestic student gets considerable aid (not just loans) and only pays about 50% of the "list price" of the colleg

  • Duh (Score:2, Insightful)

    by Ol Olsoc ( 1175323 )
    The huge influx of students was a byproduct of High schools and parents buying into the brain dead idea that a college degree - any degree in any subject was a infallible ticket to success. The college experience was a great adjunct to that - Punish the crap out of your liver, and go to class the next day to give your opinion, and viola, that Journeyman machinist was no match for your gender studies degree, you could be anything you wanted to be if you only tried hard enough - the world was your oyster. Yo

    • Re: (Score:2)

      by AmiMoJo ( 196126 )

      That used to be true. My mum has a degree in Latin, the Gender Studies of its day. At the time it was simply the case that if you had a degree you could get a good job, regardless of what that degree was. The employer took it as a sign you were intelligent and able to work independently without constant supervision.

      Boomers like her for whom that worked out well have been giving younger generations bad advice, because the market has changed. Now many more people get degrees, they aren't as exclusive as they

      • Re: (Score:2)

        by Kokuyo ( 549451 )

        Well, I find someone having studied latin to be of much higher potential than gender studies any day.

        Not even saying gender studies is worthles per se as others do, but the way it seems (to me as an outsider) to be taught doesn't inspire confidence in graduates... and whoever would major in it, if that is a thing, is of very questionable market value because how the hell do you commercialize gender studies?

        If you graduate in a dead language, you at the very least have proven that you are able t ostick to yo

        • Well, I find someone having studied latin to be of much higher potential than gender studies any day.

          Not even saying gender studies is worthles per se as others do, but the way it seems (to me as an outsider) to be taught doesn't inspire confidence in graduates... and whoever would major in it, if that is a thing, is of very questionable market value because how the hell do you commercialize gender studies?

          The main career path of Gender studies graduates would be to replace the instructor or the professor in the gender studies department. That's a very narrow path. The other possibility is in say HR of a woman owned businsss who was sympathetic to them. But that's kind of random, and not many women who own businesses are that sympathetic.

          In so many cases, the GS graduate degree is a big red flag. A friend who took some classes confided in me that it was a cauldron of misandry, with women relating stories of

          • The main career path of Gender studies graduates would be to replace the instructor or the professor in the gender studies department.

            Sounds like a ponzi scam....

          • Many women's studies / gender studies students go on to go to medical school. A gender studies / women's studies degree is intended to teach communication skills, interaction with a wide and diverse group of people, understand the needs and issues of people of various genders, history of gender around the world, and ways to support success of people of various genders. In addition to medical school, these skills / knowledge would be useful in social work, public policy, therapy, counselors, education, and H

            • Many women's studies / gender studies students go on to go to medical school. A gender studies / women's studies degree is intended to teach communication skills, interaction with a wide and diverse group of people, understand the needs and issues of people of various genders, history of gender around the world, and ways to support success of people of various genders. In addition to medical school, these skills / knowledge would be useful in social work, public policy, therapy, counselors, education, and HR.

              A a lady professor friend of mine said (paraphrased) - These classes are for women who hate men, or to make an atmosphere to teach women to hate men. And she's an art professor - not remotely conservative. Looks like our experiences are radically different, I suppose. The Gender studies majors who ran our sexual harassment made no bones that every problem on earth was caused by men, and that all women are victims of men. They plainly hated men with a passion. Indeed, their program created a post #metoo at

      • Boomers like her for whom that worked out well have been giving younger generations bad advice, because the market has changed. Now many more people get degrees, they aren't as exclusive as they used to be. Employers don't want to train, they want people who paid to learn the necessary skills themselves.

        This, so much this. A marketable skill and a desire to keep learning is a huge help in a persons career. And Boomers did give horrible advice. They meant well, but were just so wrong.

  • It isn't that you actually learn something like basic knowledge in college or so?
    And people getting into college because they are good at rugby or baseball, points out the fundamental problem with American universities.

  • Cause (Score:5, Insightful)

    by quantaman ( 517394 ) on Thursday January 13, 2022 @09:23PM (#62171497)

    "Unemployment is down. The labor market is good. Wages are rising for workers in low-skilled jobs. So if you have a high school diploma, this seems like a pretty good time to be out there making some money."

    It seems unlikely that the labour market got so good in the last 2 years that everyone stopped going to college.

    More likely, the pandemic caused a shift to online learning and students are correctly realizing that online education is vastly inferior to an in-person University education. Not only is the teaching itself better, but the campus social experience is far superior.

    "And the longer they stay away from college, you know, life starts to happen and it becomes harder and harder to start thinking about yourself going back into a classroom."

    This part is true. Right now the best course of action would be to spend a year or two gaining work experience and then heading back to University once campus life has returned to normal.

    There's also a second factor to consider. There's usually a small but specific market for newly graduated student, and for the next 4 years that pool of students is going to be smaller. The ones who attended through the pandemic will be faced with a better selection of job opportunities.

  • In a country with 54% illiteracy. No wonder. (Score:3)

    by SciCom Luke ( 2739317 ) on Thursday January 13, 2022 @09:50PM (#62171537)
    I would be more worried about that: https://orinocotribune.com/uni... [orinocotribune.com]

    Although college decline and half of your adult population being unable to read is perhaps related.
    The bulk of the bell curve of intelligence moves to barely being bale to walk and talk at the same time, so the high end also will fall back.

    • Re:In a country with 54% illiteracy. No wonder. (Score:4, Interesting)

      by nadass ( 3963991 ) on Thursday January 13, 2022 @11:02PM (#62171665)
      Great link! Here's another look (US Dept of Ed literacy map, by county) https://nces.ed.gov/surveys/pi... [ed.gov]

      • Re: (Score:2)

        by AmiMoJo ( 196126 )

        I've been looking for some reliable data on literacy rates in various countries. The problem seems to be that there is no standard for measuring literacy, and thus no good international rankings. For example some countries claim 100% literacy, which presumably excludes people with learning disabilities.

        There doesn't seem to be anyone collecting the data either. The UN has a selection of data from member states, but it doesn't include the US, or many other highly literate nations like Japan and South Korea.

  • Bad, overpriced education. There is a direct connection between the two: If education is for profit, incentives for the suppliers become perverted and they want to process as many students as possible, leading to easy to get but utterly worthless degrees. Of course the smart ones do not go that way and the dumb ones to not profit. So the US economy gets the graduates they critically need abroad. Of course, that will come crashing down eventually as the US declines further.

    For reference, my CS studies were c

  • International students (Score:4, Insightful)

    by mkwan ( 2589113 ) on Thursday January 13, 2022 @10:28PM (#62171611)

    Most of that is probably just international students who found it too difficult to enter the US during the pandemic.

    • With college fees so ludicrously high, and the level of education on par with or worse than many other universities throughout the western world that charge less than 10% of the US fees, I think that not many exchange students will find a way to US universities.

  • College is a waste of time and money for most. (Score:4, Interesting)

    by PJ6 ( 1151747 ) on Thursday January 13, 2022 @10:47PM (#62171639)
    I say that coming from an Ivy League school so make of it what you will, but honestly I think most of the jobs in this country don't benefit at all from a college degree.

    Even my degree, I didn't use it. It just opened doors. Which is actually kind of terrible.

    That whole "trading a short-term gain for a long-term loss" is nonsense. Who needs such a huge debt starting out in life? It's like kicking them in the face.

  • There has been a bubble in college admissions, driven by people who were being told relentlessly that everyone MUST go to college to have a good life, and by easy student loans that made the huge tuitions seem less extreme. The pandemic is teaching people that they can get good jobs, without the huge debt burden. It's about time.

  • 1. A college degree is not necessary for the vast majority of jobs out there. Some jobs do require it, lawyers and doctors come to mind. Although it's possible to become either of those without going to college, it's just far more difficult.
    2. Many people who go to college for one degree end up in a different field, demonstrating that 18 years old may not be a good time to make such a decision. I think 24 is a better age myself.
    3. Many companies offer tuition reimbursement and will help pay for coll

  • Outside of Medical, Law or University professor there are fewer and fewer jobs that require a 4 year degree. For a lot of coding jobs you can get your foot in the door just by attending a bootcamp. Google, for example, offers these. Once you get hired the company will most likely offer you some sort of additional training, even if that training is just to show you how THEY do things. Heck, the place I work at will offer to pay for your degree (undergrad or even grad). So it seems to me the smart move is to

  • "Community College," formerly known as "Junior College," is not college. It is high school continuation, and for most, just a holding pattern while they collect student loans, and learn next to nothing.

    The fact that fewer people are enrolling in these fake colleges is good news. It indicates that kids are getting smarter.

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