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ARM Founder: UK Has 'No Chance In Hell' of Making Its Own Tech Champs (bloomberg.com) 137

An anonymous reader quotes a report from Bloomberg: The UK has "no chance in hell" of becoming technologically sovereign, Hermann Hauser, the co-founder of Amadeus Capital Partners and Acorn Computers, said at Bloomberg's Technology Summit in London. Hauser emphasized the need for Europe and the UK to have access to critical technologies so it is not dependent on countries like the US. He mentioned former US President Donald Trump, who he said used semiconductor design software as "a weapon to force other countries including Britain to do what he wants."

"These dependencies are as severe now as military occupation was in the past," Hauser said. "And we just have to find our own independent access to critical technologies." One question countries have to ask themselves if whether they have all the critical technologies needed to run a country and its economy. "The answer for Britain" is "absolutely no, there is no chance in hell that Britain could ever become technologically sovereign," he said. Hauser added that Europe is clearly in a recession that could last a year or two. "It's difficult to know for how long with so many imponderables." "The UK in particular is in this very stormy period of having a financially undereducated chancellor, who goes by neoliberal ideology rather than rational decision making so that doesn't help," he added.
"The UK has struggled to keep its tech firms owned by local investors," notes Bloomberg. "Arm, one of the most significant global tech companies, is currently being prepped to be floated in the US by its Japanese owner SoftBank."

"French firm Schneider Electric SE has recently agreed to buy out minority shareholders in Aveva Group Plc, currently the UK's largest listed tech firm, in a deal that values the industrial software company at $10.8 billion."
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ARM Founder: UK Has 'No Chance In Hell' of Making Its Own Tech Champs

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  • Sounds about right (Score:5, Insightful)

    by NateFromMich ( 6359610 ) on Thursday September 29, 2022 @09:04AM (#62923577)
    But people aren't going to want to hear that.
    • by drinkypoo ( 153816 ) <drink@hyperlogos.org> on Thursday September 29, 2022 @09:06AM (#62923585) Homepage Journal

      Tiny island is tiny island

      News at eleven

      • by Comboman ( 895500 ) on Thursday September 29, 2022 @09:33AM (#62923645)

        Being a tiny island didn't stop Japan or Taiwan from becoming tech giants.

        • by drinkypoo ( 153816 ) <drink@hyperlogos.org> on Thursday September 29, 2022 @09:43AM (#62923667) Homepage Journal

          Being a tiny island didn't stop Japan or Taiwan from becoming tech giants.

          And yet neither ever became self-sufficient. They are both dependent on other nations (largely, the US) for supply. They have the tech, but not the resources. And in fact they never got the technical superiority on their own either. For example the Japanese car took off because they had access to cheap recycled American steel. Or how about the Compact Disc, it was created by an international team. EUV technology is used in Taiwan, but the equipment is made by the Dutch (ASML) but the offices are in "the Netherlands, the United States, Belgium, France, Germany, Ireland, Israel, Italy, the United Kingdom, mainland China, Taiwan, Hong Kong, Japan, Malaysia, Singapore, and South Korea". So no, Japan and Taiwan are not examples.

          All modern technology is dependent on a thick and repeatedly intercrossing web of technologies, parts, and materials. No country can be fully independent on short notice. And there are really only two nations which could in theory pull it off without substantial rearrangement of borders, and they are China and the US. Barring the invention of the universal nanotech assembler, which will probably be shortly before the invention of a plague that kills us all, no other nation has sufficient resources within their own borders to do everything. Of course, the US and China can't be technological leaders without other nations without seriously revamping society. Both deliberately retard education in order to prevent the development of an educated proletariat. China has always depended on copying everyone else's tech, and America has always depended on educated immigrants.

          • Yes but they weren't reliant upon a single source for external resources. If the only supplier of chip design software is a single country then you're sort of beholden to them to a degree, and they can exert more diplomatic or political pressure to do what that country wants.

            The same people who insist that UK should give up on this dream of self reliance in one economic area possibly overlap ironically with the group who insists that the US be independent from petroleum imports. The same rational is used

            • Our oil companies have zero interest in only selling to the USA market. That's the only way we (consumers) would get any real benefit out of being independent for oil. Which really sucks.

              The only good thing about being independent is when shortages happen, you typically can still get the product but at inflated values. Many places just don't get shit at any price.

              I think it's a smart thing for Britain to push for but we'll see how they manage to build up their industry to support it all.

          • UK, and France have the same problem - it is not technological but rather taxation evasion and capital subsidies - or lack thereof, and the ability to remit profit near tax free, AND get small value added products in, without massive import taxes/duties. In a race to the bottom, USA is even handing out free money - a flat out export subsidy. Europe deserves to get nothing, because it does not enforce fair trade. This will only change when royalty payments get taxed fairly, and duty calculated properly.
          • I think you are a bit out of date. US educational woes are not deliberate, but stem from a lot of sources, like smart women having other things they can do besides teach.

            If not already, the US will shortly be copying more stuff from China than they do from the US.

  • Yay Brexit (Score:3, Informative)

    by ArchieBunker ( 132337 ) on Thursday September 29, 2022 @09:05AM (#62923581)

    The pound is collapsing https://www.bloomberg.com/news... [bloomberg.com] and the new PM decides tax cuts for the rich are the fix. https://www.aljazeera.com/news... [aljazeera.com]

    • The influence of the financial sector in the UK is at least as bad as it is in the USA, if not worse, given London's historic role of being a hub of trans-Atlantic financial activity. The cosmopolitan policies that favor the banks in this relationship are terrible for the product-producing sectors of the British economy just as the equivalent is true of the USA which traded manufacturing for a financialized economy starting with NAFTA.

      • The influence of the financial sector in the UK is at least as bad as it is in the USA, if not worse,

        Which is true, but not relevant. In this particular case it's not the mainstream financial sector who are doing the evil. Banks and pension funds are being destroyed by idiocy and a few hedge funds are profiting.

    • Re:Yay Brexit (Score:4, Informative)

      by thegarbz ( 1787294 ) on Thursday September 29, 2022 @02:25PM (#62924477)

      The pound is collapsing https://www.bloomberg.com/news [bloomberg.com]... [bloomberg.com] and the new PM decides tax cuts for the rich are the fix.

      No. Inflation was getting out of control and the pound on a trajectory no different than the rest of Europe, and the PM decided the fix for that was tax cuts for the rich. As a result of that stupidity the pound crashed when the market completely lost faith in the UK government.

      All the same actions, but the opposite causality.

      • by mjwx ( 966435 )

        The pound is collapsing https://www.bloomberg.com/news [bloomberg.com]... [bloomberg.com] and the new PM decides tax cuts for the rich are the fix.

        No. Inflation was getting out of control and the pound on a trajectory no different than the rest of Europe, and the PM decided the fix for that was tax cuts for the rich. As a result of that stupidity the pound crashed when the market completely lost faith in the UK government.

        All the same actions, but the opposite causality.

        No, the pound collapsed because of the tax cuts to the rich... which are being funded by an estimated £60 bn of additional debt (probably more now, as I doubt they took the pound diving into account before that). I'd just like to emphasise that is additional debt, as in we're already incurring national debt, but here's some more debt.

        The pound dropped directly because of the phenomenally stupid "mini-budget" created by the Truss government('s rich overlords) that was poorly thought out and expressl

  • by nextTimeIsTheLast ( 6188328 ) on Thursday September 29, 2022 @09:08AM (#62923591)

    The UK as a culture generally doesn't understand or appreciate technology. If you tell people you're a software dev at a party their most likely to turn their back on you (I've experienced this first hand). 90% of cabinet ministers studied classics or politics and philosophy.

    The country respects accountants, lawyers, other bullshit rent seeking professions above all else

    • It was the same in America before the dotcom tech boom.

      Around 1998, tech became cool, and I was finally able to find a GF.

      • by ctilsie242 ( 4841247 ) on Thursday September 29, 2022 @10:35AM (#62923809)

        There were definitely times when tech went from "just nerds" to "cool". The iPod drove that point home where even in movies (think a Blade sequel), the characters were shown as using those. For all but the most extreme Luddite, the MP3 player was what made tech cool in the US.

        However, that shine is definitely eroding. New phones are almost identical to old phones. When one uses software, existing stuff gets monetized, prices raised exponentially, or you have to buy a relatively costly subscription. Devices are losing useful items which are either become separately sold commodities or just taken away because it makes a device too useful. What has driven the point home are streaming services, where one could get 1-2 subscriptions and get a lot of content, versus now where so much is some place's exclusive.

        Then add things like malvertising, scams, making a purchase on site "X", find you were signed up for subscriptions from site "Y". Add the fact that customer service is so abysmal across the board, the industry created the Karen archetype, because you have to go into turbo asshole mode in order to get anything fixed or done. (For example, if you want to cancel some services, you have to call and plead they stop, or pay an attorney to send a written C&D order.)

        The cool factor of the tech industry is rapidly eroding. What remains in its place is just a moneygrubbing infrastructure. The entire cryptocurrency boondoggle, especially viewed from non-tech people has further driven that point home.

        The future will be less tech for tech's sake. The tech industry as a whole really lost its ability to innovate around 2010, and things which are cool and revolutionary are relatively rare.

      • by drnb ( 2434720 )

        It was the same in America before the dotcom tech boom. Around 1998, tech became cool, and I was finally able to find a GF.

        Untrue. In the early 80s tech was cool as microcomputers became available to average people.

        In the 1960s tech was cool due to the Apollo program.

        Late 90s, early 80s, 60s ... getting a GF was the same. You mention you work in tech but chat with her about something else. Unless she asks a tech question, then be brief.

    • This is a country that gave on its rocket ambitions, partly due to pressures by the U.S.

      • by drnb ( 2434720 )

        This is a country that gave on its rocket ambitions, partly due to pressures by the U.S.

        Or maybe it was the post-war economic crisis. Rockets are an expensive hobby. When people are still having their food rationed, and are voting for politicians who want to provide universal healthcare and other new safety nets, one can't afford the rocket hobby.

        Plus there was the post-war collapse of empire where Britain could not simply just extract more wealth from others overseas to pay the bills. It was a good run for several centuries but that revenue stream was drying up. Trade would be more equitab

    • Not quite. Try telling someone you're an accountant or lawyer and watch what happens. At least if you say you are good with computers, the girl might ask you for help with her phone first.
      • The key was, and is, saying you are in tech, an accountant, a lawyer, etc and then chatting with the girl about something else. And if she asks a question related to your work, be brief in your response.

        That, and take showers. Note showers is plural, more than one. One shower a day is for going to work and not seeing the girl that day. Always take a shower and change your clothes, including your underwear - very important tip there, before meeting the girl. If it doesn't smell fresh and clean she's not g
    • by AmiMoJo ( 196126 ) on Thursday September 29, 2022 @09:49AM (#62923679) Homepage Journal

      The UK isn't a good place for startups to find investment. Most of the risky investment comes from outside the UK, or rather came from outside the UK because it's been in decline since 2016 when the decision to leave the EU was made.

      As well as a lack of investment, it's also now much harder for tech companies in the UK to hire the talent they need. In the EU they have a pool of 450 million to draw from, compared to 65 million and a much worse visa system in the UK. Plus, university education here isn't free like it is in many other countries, further limiting the availability of skills.

      There's also the fact that the UK hasn't had a stable government since 2016. If you haven't been following closely, after the brexit vote debacle the Prime Minister quit and Theresa May took over. She lost her majority in a snap election, bumbled along for a bit and eventually caused a constitutional crisis with here terrible exit deal with the EU. After that Boris Johnson won an election by lying and re-branding May's failed deal. That soon turned into chaos with the pandemic on top, until he too was ousted by his own party. Then Liz Truss took over, and crashed the currency a couple of weeks later. She would have done it sooner, were it not for the Queen's power move of meeting her and immediately dying.

      The future of the UK looks uncertain and unstable.

      • The UK isn't a good place for startups to find investment. Most of the risky investment comes from outside the UK,

        It's insane here. "oh yes, wait until you're breaking even, then we'll give you £1,000,000 for a controlling stake in the company". You know, after we wouldn't need the money. Investment came from elsewhere, from people who understand that companies need investment to get off the ground, and equity at the level where the cofounders are essentially poorly paid employees from day 1 ev

      • by nagora ( 177841 )

        The UK isn't a good place for startups to find investment. Most of the risky investment comes from outside the UK, or rather came from outside the UK because it's been in decline since 2016 when the decision to leave the EU was made.

        Fuck off. The UK has been like that for at least 40 years; I've seen this first hand. 2016 made no difference.

        Liz Truss is psycho, though.

    • I think you might be on the spectrum.

    • by Ecuador ( 740021 ) on Thursday September 29, 2022 @11:15AM (#62923913) Homepage

      That is not accurate to reference of how you are treated. When I say I am a software developer in the UK, people always treat it as a good thing. If they turn their back to you at a party, you are either at the wrong party, or it's just you.

      Now, having said that, the software developers are under-compensated compared to their peers, both in some other European countries and definitely the US. It was not as bad when the pound was near $2: Say 15 years ago a software developer who might make $100k or so in the US would make say £45k in the UK - this would have been a reasonably comparable salary (at a £1=$1.9 exchange rate), especially even if you were not in London. Fast forward now, the same level would be like $150k in the US and £50k in the UK and this time the £50k is only worth $54k.

    • Noses high in the air, putting on a giant sob show when the Queen died (they shut down airports and *food banks* for fuck's sake). Stuck up, stuck sitting on their laurels...

      They once had a great (though highly abusive/oppresive) world empire only a century or two ago. They stood firm against the Nazis even when London and other towns and cities were getting blitzed and destroyed night after night. What the hell happened scince then?

      Long ago, about 20 or so years ago there was a post here which stated that

    • "The UK as a culture generally doesn't understand or appreciate technology."

      The agricultural revolution happened in several different places at several different times.

      The industrial revolution pretty much happened only one time in one place: the UK.

  • I mean, he's not wrong, but given the general tenor of his comments I'm like 50% confident that they cut out the part where he says, "Putin did nothing wrong!"
  • by Lavandera ( 7308312 ) on Thursday September 29, 2022 @09:59AM (#62923705)

    So please talk about UK but not about EU ...

    Also before admitting back into EU you must agree to change your electric sockets first...

    • Also before admitting back into EU you must agree to change your electric sockets first...

      Hows about we take your working laws, labour relations, financial system, food regulations, investment policies, freedom of movement regulations, burgundy passports and almost everything else and..... You get rid of the awful patchwork of two pin and three pin sockets some of which have side connections and so on which mean that all over the EU there are devices which should be earthed and instead have the neutral side connected to the live side.

      This is about the only thing I can think of where the EU shou

      • You get rid of the awful patchwork of two pin and three pin sockets some of which have side connections and so on which mean that all over the EU there are devices which should be earthed and instead have the neutral side connected to the live side.

        No country in Europe has a patchwork. Every country by standard have earthed devices. No electrical standards (not even the UK) apply retrospectively but anywhere new electrical work will be done you get a perfectly normal earthed socket.

        Also with the exception of Switzerland, Denmark and Italy, all European outlets are compatible with Schuko plugs, a market that represents well over 700 million people and countries not only in Europe but also Russia, middle east, and half of Africa.

        The UK socket has a sing

        • by Megane ( 129182 )
          Isn't the main reason for outlet fuses because of how ring circuits work? Only the UK and HK use the silly things.
          • by jsonn ( 792303 )
            They are also useful when people want to skimp on the wiring. But this has been mostly fixed by safety standards, just like the problem of daisy-chaining power strips has been fixed by mandating all new power strips to have wiring that can handle the full 16A.
          • Outlet fuses are both for ring circuits (which Europe doesn't use) and for protecting the cable. That is the only missing aspect of safety standards in Europe, the ability for a cable fault on a cable that only supports 10A to be connected to a circuit which supports 16A.

        • by mjwx ( 966435 )

          You get rid of the awful patchwork of two pin and three pin sockets some of which have side connections and so on which mean that all over the EU there are devices which should be earthed and instead have the neutral side connected to the live side.

          No country in Europe has a patchwork. Every country by standard have earthed devices. No electrical standards (not even the UK) apply retrospectively but anywhere new electrical work will be done you get a perfectly normal earthed socket.

          Also with the exception of Switzerland, Denmark and Italy, all European outlets are compatible with Schuko plugs, a market that represents well over 700 million people and countries not only in Europe but also Russia, middle east, and half of Africa.

          The UK socket has a singular benefit of being fused, something that covers a very minor electrical protection (the cable) compared to actual devices, additionally the majority of consumer electronics are double insulated and don't actually require earthing at all (and don't have it connected).

          So no. No one will adopt the UK's plug, it's pointless busywork and doesn't really add anything meaningful to safety while being a large step backwards in compatibility between nations.

          No-one else uses the UK plug except for Singapore, Malaysia, Hong Kong, Cypress, Malta and Ireland... who I believe are in the EU.

          The UK had the (dis)advantage of being one of the earlier plugs to be codified to a high standard, thus was quite over-engineered compared to the later plugs that had the benefit of lessons the British learned.

          If we want the best plug in the world, it has to be the AS/NZS 3112, it's compact, light, polarised, impossible to plug in wrong, 2 or 3 pin (grounded or ungrounded),

      • get rid of the awful patchwork of two pin and three pin sockets

        Here is the answer from the Commission on this topic:
        "The Commission is aware of the situation in Europe with regard to plugs and socket outlets. There was a Commission proposal in 1997 to harmonise electrical plugs and sockets for domestic use (i.e. up to 16A rated current) across the Community which did not meet with success.
        In addition, attempts made by the European Committee for Electrotechnical Standardisation, CENELEC, to agree a voluntary European standard also failed to gain consensus despite severa

    • by sfcat ( 872532 )

      So please talk about UK but not about EU ...

      Also before admitting back into EU you must agree to change your electric sockets first...

      So you are finally moving to 120V sockets? It is about time. Seriously, it is far easier to have safe wall sockets than make sure every single electrically powered device is safe. Using 240V is like giving subsides for 4x4s instead of paving roads.

      • So you are finally moving to 120V sockets? It is about time. Seriously, it is far easier to have safe wall sockets than make sure every single electrically powered device is safe. Using 240V is like giving subsides for 4x4s instead of paving roads.

        I agree for safety reasons we should eliminate 120V. It's a huge cause of needless fires due to resistance in poor connections and high currents. Hell the use of 120V requires an additional safety mechanism (AFCIs) due to how shitty that idea is.

        Also devices are protected because the device load is known. You can't hope to protect against electrocution unless you have an earth fault system or you know the exact load, and earth fault doesn't care if it's 120V or 240V. In any case you need to fuse the device

        • by sfcat ( 872532 )

          and high currents

          120V is lower current than 240V. I will never understand why you think having the default voltage high enough to blow you across the room is safe. And our fuses are in the fuse box (which is backed up by an earth ground). People will foolishly jump the fuses there and so to deal with the lawsuits this causes, extra fuses were added to the outlet (AFCI). Those have nothing to do with 120V systems. It has more to do with the fact that US electrical systems are so safe, people feel that "fixing" them them

          • Having experienced both, I fell much safer in EU. Yes the voltage is higher, meaning if you touch it, it's way more dangerous. But to get the same power, you need twice less amps, which is what was meant by "120V is high current". Breakers tripped all the time in the US as soon as you start the microwave and the toaster at the same time. In the EU, it extremely rare to trip any breaker because 250Vx20A = 5kW. That's a lot.

            Now for the part that makes me feel much safer. It is almost impossible to touch a li

          • and high currents

            120V is lower current than 240V.

            Huh? Are you feeling ok? Driving the same wattage load requires higher current for lower voltage. P = VI, and all that.

            Higher currents cause more resistive power loss (P=I^2 R) and therefore more heat.

  • by RogueWarrior65 ( 678876 ) on Thursday September 29, 2022 @10:21AM (#62923771)

    "If you want a margarita machine that sings when the slush is at the right churn, that’s a Chinese chip.
    If you want to do anything useful, that’s an American chip."

    It's a long video but well worth watching if you want to know a lot more than the media is telling everyone.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?... [youtube.com]

    • With that introduction I'm not going to watch your video, because what you quoted is nonsense. That was true until maybe a decade ago. These days, most useful tasks can be accomplished with what are by modern standards total chickenshit CPUs. There are legitimately some tasks which don't fit this description, like say high-res video encoding or modeling nuclear blasts, but there is plenty of I/O bound business logic that is cheaper to run on lots of shitty little cores.

      • by sfcat ( 872532 )

        And the GP got the quote wrong (it isn't what Zeihan said). The US chips are in cars and low end devices (middle market). Taiwanese chips are in the high end devices (high market).

        You just ignore anything that corrects you on any point. Your ego is so wrapped up in being right that you feel actual pain when you learn something new. That explains a lot about your posting history.

        • the GP got the quote wrong (it isn't what Zeihan said).
          [...]
          You just ignore anything that corrects you on any point.

          So I'm right, and the GP is wrong, but I ignore anything that corrects me on any point? Okay there, tiger.

    • PeterZ rocks. See his Iowa Swine Day presentation that illuminates the Ukraine debacle https://www.youtube.com/watch?... [youtube.com]
      • by narcc ( 412956 )

        Peter Zeihan? The very clearly unbalanced "futurist" shouting end-of-the-world conspiracy nonsense recycled from the 90's? That guy?

        Find better heroes.

    • by Kremmy ( 793693 )
      Idolization of youtube personalities is one of the most disturbing trends of modern times.
      Especially the ones who do nothing but push a narrative, loudly.
      Daddy yelling doesn't make him right.
    • Your definition of "anything useful" is a PC's CPU or a GPU. The reality is your entire life is governed by useful devices dependently solely on Chinese chips. You can't even build all American cars without them. What's more useful, your computer without an internet connection (your router definitely is loaded with Chinese chips), or the ability to drive to the cornershop and get food for your family, with a bill run up in a till filled with Chinese chips?

      "Useful" is not driven by technological superiority.

  • "The UK has struggled to keep its tech firms owned by local investors,"

    You just have to abandon Reaganomics/Thatcherism/neo-Liberalism/whatever your local flavor is called and say the national government gets to veto any merger or acquisition that its regulators deem to not be in the national interest.

    Then use that power aggressively. Give tax breaks to strategically important sectors that need nourishing. Impose protectionism where it makes sense.

    ARM would have stayed British if the government had simply g

    • And then RISC-V would be the cool processor architecture du jour instead of ARM. There's worldwide demand to incorporate modular CPU IP blocks into other semiconductor applications. If ARM were bottlenecked at birth someone else would have developed something similar for distribution world-wide.
    • I think the growth of ARM happened because it was more open and not protectionist. If using ARM in a part of your design was made harder, such as with stricter licensing, then a different technology would have grown instead. There was nothing magical about the early ARM designs; sort of a generic 32-bit RISC just like a MIPS or PPC. It wasn't particularly better or worse than the competition, most of the best stuff about ARM came about relatively late after it had a resurgence and got into wider use in S

    • I get the sentiment, but this is utopic. When was the last time the national government did something in the national interest? Give the political critters the power to veto large deals and they will turn it in pure corruption.

  • When I was a kid in the 70's, I remember watching a TV report saying that Britain had set a goal to dominate the world in software development.

    • by narcc ( 412956 )

      It's not like that was huge joke or anything. The British gave us Ocean, Code Masters, Mirrorsoft... Teens making millions from their bedrooms with their home micro... Sinclair, Acorn, the list goes on and that's just off the top of my head.

    • In some ways it did a better job locally of promoting computers, computing, and education there than the US did. The US won here because it had the larger population. Even then when computing was a growing industry it was spread around the world; there was big stuff happening in the UK, but also Germany, France, etc. It later coalesced in Silicon Valley for some reason (startups want to be near other startups?).

      It is not necessarily politics that did this, or lack of government protections/support. After

    • There is a reason ARM was originally a British company.
  • "The UK in particular is in this very stormy period of having a financially undereducated chancellor, who goes by neoliberal ideology rather than rational decision making so that doesn't help,"
    That's not rational thinking, it's *rationalization*, and it doesn't belong in government. Get those right wing pinheads off the board.
  • They went from being a world empire to, well this in the span of a couple centuries. And all they are doing now is stewing in the glory of their past without giving much thought to their future.

      Empires rise and empires fall. Same with the Romans.

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