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Earth

UN Warns Key Warming Threshold Slipping From Sight (bbc.com) 142

There is "no credible pathway" to keep the rise in global temperatures below the key threshold of 1.5C, according to a bleak new UN assessment. From a report: Scientists believe that going beyond 1.5C would see dangerous impacts for people all over the world. The report says that since COP26 last year, governments carbon cutting plans have been "woefully inadequate." Only an urgent transformation of society will avoid disaster, the study says. There's just over a week until the next major climate conference, known as COP27, starts in Egypt. Mindful of the fact that the world's attention has been elsewhere since climate diplomats met in Glasgow last year, this week has seen a flurry of reports underlining the fact that climate change hasn't gone away.
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UN Warns Key Warming Threshold Slipping From Sight

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  • No shit? (Score:5, Informative)

    by chill ( 34294 ) on Thursday October 27, 2022 @11:08AM (#63002951) Journal

    They've been screaming for decades that "if we don't do something" then global warming is going to go well over 1.5 C and the shit is going to start to steam.

    If anyone actually thought anyone of significance was going to to anything that required effort, they were insane.

    This is probably the best assessment I've seen. Season 3, Episode 3 of The Newsroom [youtube.com].

    • because humans will do shit. Short-term and local concerns trump world climate concerns to voters and dictators.

      Thus, either re-build and/or move based on projected climate changes, or dis-engineer the planet using things like cloud and ocean seeding, orbiting sun shields, etc.

      • either re-build and/or move based on projected climate changes,

        That's already started to happen in Central America, but a lot of people here in the USA are already freaking out about the results.

        or dis-engineer the planet using things like cloud and ocean seeding, orbiting sun shields, etc.

        This is why we're all doomed. We're going to blithely shoot way past the point where billions of people's live will be threatened unless we do some kind of geoengineering. However, the whole COVID vaccine thing has made it abundantly clear that huge swaths of the public will be violently opposed to any such action, largely because it will be proposed by "eggheads" that they've

        • by HiThere ( 15173 )

          Most geoengineering schemes are incredibly dangerous, and have no ready "abort" switch if something is seen to be going wrong.

          And we may be forced into using them anyway, but anyone who thinks they're a good idea rather that a "least bad option" needs to thoroughly rethink their approach.

          • Well, you don't need to worry about intentional geoengineering. Like I said, that's probably not going to happen. More likely, we'll get to find out if the dire predictions about the effects of nuclear winter are justified or overblown.

        • That's already started to happen in Central America, but a lot of people here in the USA are already freaking out about the results.

          What are you talking about? You think people are migrating from Central America to USA because of climate change??

          • Yes. Farming in many areas there is becoming untenable because of persistent droughts and other problems.

            Many people say we have to "adapt" to climate change and move from areas that become unsuitable to live on. Well, that's exactly what many of them are doing.

            • Yes. Farming in many areas there is becoming untenable because of persistent droughts and other problems.

              Where? Where exactly is farming becoming untenable? In Jiquilisco? In Santa Rosa de Lima?

    • No one screamed for decades that it was going to happen the next year. The change is gradual in terms of people but extremely rapid in terms of the geological and even historical record. We are already seeing effects that most likely are due to climate change; stronger hurricanes, longer droughts, historic extremes being more common. You could say it's all just chance, but that's like sticking one's head in the sand. Bangladesh lowlands could be decimated but someone will likely say "well, that's just B

    • by AmiMoJo ( 196126 )

      If you don't think significant effort is being made then you have not been paying attention. Many countries have significantly altered their carbon reduction timelines in response, and committed to huge changes like banning the sale of fossil fuel vehicles and gas boilers by the end of this decade.

      More needs to be done, but to say nothing that required effort has happened is nonsense.

      • by chill ( 34294 )

        I think a lot of it was lip service and paper shuffling. I believe those countries that did significant things were so small parts of the equation it basically didn't matter. And I believe the things done by the larger players were only done if it was painless and easy, and many were reversed as soon as there was any cost involved. Talk is cheap.

        Finally, I believe the bulk of the gains came accidentally, as a consequence of the Covid shutdown of a good chunk of the world for a couple years.

  • by gweihir ( 88907 ) on Thursday October 27, 2022 @11:22AM (#63002989)

    If you look at the facts, there actually seems to be more like no "credible path" too keep it below 2.5C at this time. Well, unless all people come together, stop all wars, execute all oil executives and all super-rich assholes, stop producing to much offspring and make reducing this existential threat the primary focus of all human undertakings for a century or so that is. The way things are going, we will likely see 4C and may see 5C. We will not likely see 6C, because at that point humans will likely not be around anymore.

    • You forgot "Eat the rich!" Much less damaging to the environment than eating cows!
    • by znrt ( 2424692 )

      If you look at the facts, there actually seems to be more like no "credible path" too keep it below 2.5C at this time. Well, unless all people come together, stop all wars

      stop wars? are you crazy? they've just now starting to profit from the brand new war in europe they've been engineering for years!

    • by HiThere ( 15173 )

      My estimate is closer to 3 degrees Celsius. And I hope I'm not being optimistic.

      If action had started seriously a couple of decades ago, then 1.5C might be reasonable. Unfortunately, a lot of the action has been in the other direction, and there are lots of people talking about "carbon capture" which is NOT going to be cheap unless there's a real technological breakthrough in fusion power (if then). It's an inherently energy intensive process.

    • by mark-t ( 151149 )

      . We will not likely see 6C, because at that point humans will likely not be around anymore.

      You want to explain that reasoning? It's not like 6 degrees is going to cause the oceans to vaporize.

      • by gweihir ( 88907 )

        Look it up. And remember this is an average.

        • by mark-t ( 151149 )

          Ah... wet bulb temperature.

          Even then, that only means that parts or maybe even large swaths of the planet will no longer be habitable for humans. At worst,, most likely a dead zone in the tropics.

          But that's still a far cry from humanity not being here at all.

          • by gweihir ( 88907 )

            Ah... wet bulb temperature.

            Even then, that only means that parts or maybe even large swaths of the planet will no longer be habitable for humans. At worst,, most likely a dead zone in the tropics.

            But that's still a far cry from humanity not being here at all.

            Indeed. Also much, much larger variability. But larger parts of the planet not being habitable anymore starts around 3C or so. And you still need to grow food and that means plants that can deal with both climate and soil conditions in a place. If climate changes over 10'000 of years, plants have time to adapt. With what we are facing, they do not. Large areas will just not have topsoil anymore because no plants to keep it in place. And then there is a second problem: Estimates are that somewhere between 4C

  • Lowest point in country at 115m above sea level... I think it's time to invest heavily.

    In weapons. People might want to climb.

    • by jd ( 1658 )

      I wouldn't bother with trying to defend anything so low. At this point, what you really want are some nice limestone caves on top of a high defensible hill with good views. Use the caves for storage/emergencies (and sally ports in the event of a major attack), the pop guns available to American citizens aren't going to pose any kind of threat under such conditions. What's more, water doesn't flow on the surface in limestone areas, it flows through the cave networks. So you've fresh water and any raiders do

    • I've already set up stakes in Perfection, Nevada. Safest place there is!

  • by Locke2005 ( 849178 ) on Thursday October 27, 2022 @11:34AM (#63003031)
    "We're fucked!"
    • The largest regions population-wise are in equatorial zones. India, Southeast Asia, Africa, South America. Already summer weather is borderline habitable in terms of temperatures. When the temperatures go up enough, the heatwaves will kill most people, not just the young weak and elderly. We'll probably see billions of people die. And they won't produce greenhouse gas anymore. We'll probably see a shitpile of people in more northern climes start dropping dead too. Again, less greenhouse gas.

      It's not like ev

      • Australian Opal miners live in a place that gets up to 120 degrees in the summer. e.g. Coober Pedy. They live quite comfortably by burrowing underground. The problem isn't the outside temperature, the problem is how people build their homes!
      • by suutar ( 1860506 )

        Not everyone can move, true. But enough will try to make things... interesting.

  • Just build walls around your deluged coastal cities. Let the farmers choose different crops--or move. Generate more electricity for air conditioning. Begin migration toward polar regions. Take pictures of endangered species for posterity. Learn to eat bugs, plankton, fungus. Realize that energy and related (plastics, transportation, agrichemicals) monopolies are intractable and have power over every government--nothing can stop them.

  • Meanwhile... (Score:5, Informative)

    by tsqr ( 808554 ) on Thursday October 27, 2022 @12:03PM (#63003145)

    Meanwhile, the NY Times "This Morning" newsletter today in my inbox had this subject: "The climate's improved future", and starts with the headline, "Good morning. What was once the worst-case scenario for climate change seems much less likely", and has the sub-head, "An optimistic shift".

    Can you say, "Mixed messages"?

  • that will keep global warming at bay!

    --- (grim) Joke Alert ---

  • ...what makes them think people will rally around a climate situation?
  • by VeryFluffyBunny ( 5037285 ) on Thursday October 27, 2022 @01:02PM (#63003357)
    ...with no easy or popular solution. Politically speaking, what we mostly have at the moment are representative democracies, which are prone to regulatory capture, & neoliberal capitalism, which concentrates wealth & power among a tiny minority of poorly informed & unaccountable individuals & who spend hundreds of millions of dollars on regulatory capture & pushing their own poorly informed political agendas. High confidence & low knowledge are a catastrophic combination when the future of human societies & the systems that allow us to live are at risk. We need to disempower the rich & their corporations now so that we can act rationally in the public interest. Quite how we go about doing that? Well, there's a range of political solutions but ones that the rich & the media they control will rail against & demonise as vigorously as they can. If you think anti-union campaigns are extreme, wait till you see how they react to existential threats to their power & wealth.
  • Frankly, there's too much demand for attention spans. Elections, Climate Change, Ukraine, China, Inflation, Gas Prices

    Do what you can for yourself and those around you to make things better. You can't control world politics or other peoples' lives.

  • If the future can be predicted, there'd be no reason for it to happen.

    Note, I am not saying anthropogenic global warming isn't happening. I am saying anything could happen randomly to make things different. For example, there was a supervolcona 1500 years ago that reduced global temperatures by a few degrees (and fucked up the world.) Yeah, so anything could happen to change things -- nuclear war, meteor strike, supervolcano.

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