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Earth Science

More Than Half of Humans On Track To Be Overweight or Obese By 2035, Report Finds (theguardian.com) 282

An anonymous reader quotes a report from The Guardian: More than half of the world's population will be overweight or obese by 2035 unless governments take decisive action to curb the growing epidemic of excess weight, a report has warned. About 2.6 billion people globally -- 38% of the world population -- are already overweight or obese. But on current trends that is expected to rise to more than 4 billion people (51%) in 12 years' time, according to research by the World Obesity Federation.

Without widespread use of tactics such as taxes and limits on the promotion of unhealthy food, the number of people who are clinically obese will increase from one in seven today to one in four by 2035. If that happens, almost 2 billion people worldwide would be living with obesity. Those with a body mass index (BMI) of 25 are judged to be overweight, while people whose BMI is at least 30 are deemed to be obese. Evidence shows that obesity increases someone's risk of cancer, heart disease and other diseases.

Obesity among children and young people is on course to increase faster than among adults. By 2035 it is expected to be at least double the rate seen in 2020, according to the federation's latest annual World Obesity Atlas report. It is expected to rise by 100% among boys under 18, leaving 208 million affected, but go up even more sharply -- by 125% -- among girls the same age, which would see 175 million of them affected. [...] The federation's report also highlights that many of the world's poorest countries are facing the sharpest increases in obesity yet are the least well prepared to confront the disease. Nine of the 10 countries set to experience the biggest rises in coming years are low- or middle-income nations in Africa and Asia.
"The global cost of obesity is also due to rocket, from $1.96 trillion in 2019 to $4.32 trillion by 2035, which would be the equivalent of 3% of global GDP -- a sum comparable to the economic damage wrought by Covid-19 -- the federation estimates," adds the report.
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More Than Half of Humans On Track To Be Overweight or Obese By 2035, Report Finds

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  • Are already there! :P
  • That means we are all well ahead of the curve.

    Leading since day one.

    --
    The early bird gets the worm. The early worm... gets eaten. - Norman Ralph Augustine

  • by Somervillain ( 4719341 ) on Friday March 03, 2023 @12:08AM (#63337933)
    I get that it's fun to make fun of the overweight....one of the last groups you can make fun of and not be a social pariah now that you can't tell jokes about ethnic minorities or people's sexuality like your parents and grandparents could. However, the staggering numbers says it's more than just fat reckless people.

    We have some really fundamental misunderstandings about nutrition and human metabolism. How come so many people can eat one way and be slender while so many others balloon up and get really fat? Once you get to half the global population and it hits Asia, it's not about lazy sedentary Americans alone.

    Our obesity epidemic is a more complex multi-variable equation than most realize. It's about laziness, lifestyle, lack, poor willpower, HFCS, no exercise...but so much more. There are hormone levels, signaling hormones, body differences that lead to a lifestyle for one person being healthy, but another being fat. Simply telling the fat to stop being fat won't cut it.

    We need more research into how our metabolism works to tackle this. We need to figure out why some can eat healthy, exercise a ton, and be chubby...whereas others can be twice as reckless, twice as sedentary, and slender. The high failure rate of diets is another odd data factor. Why is it so much harder to lose and keep off weight than get in shape, quit highly addictive narcotics, smoking, or drinking? To me, it says we really need to treat obesity like a health problem. We need to diagnose what is causing it on case by case and craft strategies based on the actual person and their physiology, like we do to treat cancer or heart disease. Right now, all we do is shame fat people and tell them to eat a little less and exercise a little more...they do...and it rarely works...instead of just saying "welp, I guess you didn't do it enough, you must suck at life, fatty" the medical community really should do some actual research to see if the person is a reckless slob or their centuries of diet advice are bullshit and counterproductive in that instance.

    As a lifelong dieter, that's what I found out until I discovered intermittent fasting...something that doctors 20 years ago were telling you NOT to do....because they are ignorant and thought fat people were just slobs. I'm 30lbs leaner with a 32" waist now...but the advice of the medical establishment has been counterproductive. Beyond research, the medical establishment needs to treat obesity. If you're fat today and you don't want to be, you have to do all your own research. The doctors can't help...beyond telling you to eat more fiber and drink more water. They're completely fucking clueless. There are medication options, detailed diet options, therapy options for treating underlying psychological issues, fitness strategies...and your GP is not an expert in those. TMK, major hospital networks don't have a clinic devoted to treating obesity and they should. People really need to take this seriously and treat it like a medical issue, not a personal character issue.

    In contrast, I hurt my knee working out. An orthopedist took x-rays, examined me, quickly diagnosed the issues, and gave individualized physical therapy exercise recommendations to fix the issue...and it's fully fixed. It was an impressive success on my Dr's part. Why don't we take a similar approach towards obesity with actual specialists and experts? How much cheaper would it be if we fixed this when the fat person is in their 30s than treating diabetes, heart disease, and joint breakdown in their 60s?
    • The doctors can't help...beyond telling you to eat more fiber and drink more water.

      Most doctors are not dieticians. If you went to a dietician, your weight problem would be cleared up. If you also have mental problems contributing to your weight problems, then you're going to need a really good dietician.

    • Not making fun, but I think this notion of "requires more research" "multi-variable equation" is not really accurate, nor particularly helpful. Sure there is some tiny slice of the population that can get away with eating a ton and being skinny (but likely not healthy. Similarly there is a small slice that have legitimate glandular/hormone things. But for the overwhelming majority of folks its simply diet. Too many (mostly empty) calories. Full stop.

      Anecdote: There was a TV show on PBS, "Colonial Hous

    • by dgatwood ( 11270 )

      Our obesity epidemic is a more complex multi-variable equation than most realize. It's about laziness, lifestyle, lack, poor willpower, HFCS, no exercise...but so much more. There are hormone levels, signaling hormones, body differences that lead to a lifestyle for one person being healthy, but another being fat. Simply telling the fat to stop being fat won't cut it.

      You forgot fructose-induced villi growth and the higher absorption of glucose that results from it, changes in gut bacteria from overuse of antibiotics in people and food animals, adenoviruses (at least one of which is directly linked to obesity in humans and another is linked to obesity in chickens), etc.

    • by Tom ( 822 )

      I get that it's fun to make fun of the overweight....one of the last groups you can make fun of and not be a social pariah now that you can't tell jokes about ethnic minorities or people's sexuality like your parents and grandparents could.

      There's an important difference: You don't choose your ethnicity or sexuality and you can't change it if you don't like it. But nobody is born fat and you absolutely can lose weight.(*)

      (*) lots of people claim they can't and it's a health issue but for 99 out of 100 that's total bullshit. As George Carlin put it: Maybe try 11 pizzas a day instead of 12 ?

      • Or just cheat nature and get your stomach stapled.

      • But nobody is born fat
        Actually a growing percentage of babies ARE now being born fat & overweight, which was extremely rare even 20 years ago. Some come out so overweight that they are born with fatty liver syndrome. For comparison that's something alcoholics get, albeit after a decade or two, of daily alcohol abuse.

    • by Tom ( 822 )

      As a lifelong dieter,

      Ah.

      There's now tons of studies that prove show that diets don't work. What works is more excercise and getting used to being hungry (most of humanity was hungry most of the time for 100,000 years and we made it, so relax). Intermittent fasting is essentially that - it teaches you to accept hunger as normal and to control the urge to "eat it away". Good choice.

    • You wanna know the actual reason for obesity? It's easy. Food is in our area not only available and affordable, we also have an industry that made it their business to make it tasty so we'd want to eat (and thus buy) more of it. And tasty to our body means 50% carbs, 30% fat. And that's what our foods are. The other 20% should be protein, but since that's fairly expensive it has been changed to filler substances more often than not.

      And that's it. That is our food. Try it. Go into a supermarket, find somethi

    • by AmiMoJo ( 196126 )

      Low quality, high calorie food is cheap. Healthier food is more expensive, often both to buy and in terms of how long it takes to prepare.

      I had this conversation with someone recently. Food in Japan is much better than the UK. He asked why, when you can buy the same ingredients here. Aside from the dishes being different, the main things seem to be that good food is cheap. Even if you don't have the time or skill to produce it yourself, you can buy healthy prepared meals for not a lot of money.

      The other big

    • How much cheaper would it be if we fixed this when the fat person is in their 30s than treating diabetes, heart disease, and joint breakdown in their 60s?

      Enormously, but doing so is politically toxic. Interventions are expensive and complicated, and ask awkward questions about agency, responsibility and society. Good luck to anyone wanting to make those kinds of nuanced arguments in this day and age.
      • Good luck to anyone wanting to make those kinds of nuanced arguments in this day and age.

        You just took a nuanced argument and reduced it to the prevailing wisdom which is clearly wrong, which was in turn the point of the preceding comment. You wouldn't know a nuanced argument if you read one.

    • You make some good points. However, you cannot and should not completely excuse individual behavior.

      The last time I visited the US, I noticed a couple of things: First, portions were huge. If I ordered an appetizer and a main at a restaurant, I had enough food for two, and sometimes three normal meals. I rarely finished all the food, but my hosts certainly did. If someone grilled a steak, it was twice the size of what I would grill at home. Etc.

      Second, low activity levels. For one meal, we needed to sto

  • by bubblyceiling ( 7940768 ) on Friday March 03, 2023 @12:40AM (#63338001)
    My experience with it has been great. It works by cutting down food cravings
  • by ndykman ( 659315 ) on Friday March 03, 2023 @12:53AM (#63338013)

    The usefulness of BMI is really coming into more and more question. It has always been known to be a blunt instrument and now its predictive power is being more and more called into question versus looking at the person as a whole. So, this crisis may be more related to overusing BMI as a widespread measure of overall health versus a more complex, personalized view.

    Certainly, issues around food processing and food deserts needs to be addressed. Yes, there is an aspect of personal accountability here, but foundations completely overemphasize the "effective habits" aspect of the problem and ignore people's overall mental health. People are overworked and under threat of losing housing and other basic needs.

    You can't expect people to spend extra hours in a week to shop and cook better food if just getting takeout or a microwaved dinner gives them just an hour more to rest in a day, rest that keeps them from falling over the edge.

    You wonder why people would buy a soda when we can't ensure the safety of tap water in this country anymore? Seriously?

    All that stress will make them store energy in fat. This isn't about willpower. We are wired to trade long term needs for short term survival. However, now, the stress never leaves. The lean times of less food never come. We never get a break to relax and reset, to work out that excess energy. The real fix is a four-day work week and a real, effective safety net.

    And, again, BMI is an overly blunt predictor of actual health. The flaws in BMI are being more noticeable all the time. In additional, the normal levels for things like A1C and other labs were moved significantly, which means that a lot of people that weren't type-2 diabetics suddenly were. The problem is that we don't (and won't) know if this was an overcorrection and we put too many people on a new class of medications when it didn't actually help their overall health outcomes at all. It may actually do nothing to reduce cardiac events or other related chronic health problems. Sad, when we know that reducing long term stress levels *does* work to do exactly that.

    • For a point in time, BMI is not a great representation. As you get older though that BMI catches up with you and you see the outcomes that one would expect.

    • by Tom ( 822 )

      The usefulness of BMI is really coming into more and more question.

      That is true, but you don't need a BMI to look around and see that people in general have become fat. In my childhood, that was much more rare, now it's lots of people. The BMI only puts that into numbers.

      However, now, the stress never leaves. The lean times of less food never come.

      This. Too much of our system is based on making people stressed.

    • by quenda ( 644621 )

      The usefulness of BMI is really coming into more and more question.

      I think you are using it wrong. It is properly used for measuring and comparing population health. Because you cannot measure everyone in detail.
      For individuals, it is just a rough guide. My BMI is a bit high, but I only need to look in the mirror to see the excess visceral fat.
      There is no denying the belly bulge. Sixty years ago, it was not considered normal, and it shows in health data that it ain't good.

  • Modern living continuously puts more and more responsibilities while providing fewer and fewer resources to meet them. Meanwhile we have unlimited access to cheap junk food. Human beings just like any animal are going to react to stress by trying to bulk up for the winter that isn't going to come.

    As a rule you'll find that the obesity rates drop as incomes increase. With nearly 60% of Americans, heck 68% with some surveys, living paycheck to paycheck it's not really a surprise. And also doesn't help the
  • Success Story (Score:5, Insightful)

    by rossz ( 67331 ) <ogre&geekbiker,net> on Friday March 03, 2023 @01:20AM (#63338065) Journal

    Throughout the history of mankind, hunger was the normal condition of the majority of the population. If half of mankind is overweight, it is a huge indicator of success. Yes, obesity will kill you. But famine will kill you faster and with much more suffering.

    Yes, we do need to deal with this problem. But this is not a sign of failure.

    • childhood obesity is a new type of malnutrition that must be dealt with, even if it throws a wrench (or wooden shoe) into the machinery of capitalism.

    • > If half of mankind is overweight, it is a huge indicator of success

      You must be joking. Being "well off' and not being hungry does not mean you have to be sick, and yes...no matter what "the progressives" might say, being obese means being dangerously ill, as I was too at one point.

      3 years ago I was borderline obese at 220lbs, and 5'9, and had all kinds of issue at the age of 35. Finally ended up in the doctors office, and he said do something about this or you'll be dead in 10 years. Literally. I had h

      • I frankly don't get why someone would enjoy something like that. We have the technology, we can rebuild the body to retain fewer nutrients.

  • ... practically anyone who isn't living in a society that experiences food insecurity.

    Good to know.

    • Well, that's the logical conclusion if you have a system that is hardwired to ensure the retention and storage of as much energy as possible and the near unlimited availability of that energy. Data grows to fill any storage space available, and humans grow to eat any food available.

  • by Powercntrl ( 458442 ) on Friday March 03, 2023 @01:37AM (#63338093) Homepage

    Unhealthy foods just plain taste better, blame our biology. If humans were meant to not become overbloated fatasses, a kale salad with a sprinkle of lite dressing would taste better than that extra cheese bacon triple lardburger with loaded fries (and some extra ranch dressing on the side, for dipping). Mmm, bacon.

    • by Tom ( 822 )

      Unhealthy foods just plain taste better, blame our biology. If humans were meant to not become overbloated fatasses,

      We are not. Biology just never had to adjust to constant availability of high-calorie food. In natural environment, that's very rare, which is exactly why it is so enticing - you have to go for it when it's there.

      • We are. The definition of "tasty" is something that offers 50% carbohydrates, 30% fat and 20% protein. If that is available, it is what we will reach for (unless our more sane higher brain functions tell us that we'll regret that later). Our food industry found out that it's quite possible to replace those expensive 20% protein with much cheaper substitutes, though, so what's left is the 50% carbs, 30% fat and 20% chemistry formula we now find in our supermarkets.

        We're hardwired to WANT that. Yes, it's rare

    • by quenda ( 644621 )

      If humans were meant to not become overbloated fatasses, a kale salad with a sprinkle of lite dressing would taste better than that extra cheese bacon triple lardburger with loaded fries

      Kale? ugh. There is another way: PORTION CONTROL. Don't eat a serving like an American restaurant has. I'm losing weight on a diet with bacon and cheese. A croissant with one piece of bacon, and some nice brie maybe. Some red wine. The French are not fat.
      Normal food works, but cutting the carbs a bit, and just keep the serving sensible. Count calories for a while, until you learn what a healthy serve looks like.

  • by ZipNada ( 10152669 ) on Friday March 03, 2023 @01:38AM (#63338095)

    There's a drug called semaglutide that appears to be effective for curbing appetite and making people feel full. You have to inject it once per week, but it appears to be effective.

    https://www.msn.com/en-us/heal... [msn.com]

    https://www.forbes.com/health/... [forbes.com]

  • Action wanted. (Score:3, Insightful)

    by Rumagent ( 86695 ) on Friday March 03, 2023 @02:31AM (#63338135)
    Could we, please, start to regulate the companies which produce and promote our food? When half the population turning obese, it is no longer the fault and responsibility of the individual alone. Somebody is selling shit which kills us and we need to make them stop.
    • by Dusanyu ( 675778 )
      food is half the issue the other issue is lack of activity, these days people don't even leave the house to buy more food to ram down there pie holes. First thing first we need to get people off there butts and moving walking or biking if they need to travel a short distance. great way to reduce carbon and wide loads at the same time.
      • Great, now you have obese people who don't just have liver, gall and heart problems, they also have shot joints and torn ligaments from trying to exercise without having the first clue how to do it without killing themselves even faster...

  • Maybe I’ll have a donut.

  • First step... (Score:4, Insightful)

    by zeeky boogy doog ( 8381659 ) on Friday March 03, 2023 @03:47AM (#63338213)
    The first and most important step to addressing this in the US is so simple: Recognize that fat is not the devil, processed sugar is.

    Every one of your ancestors ate fat at every opportunity for a million years. Your body knows exactly what to do with fat. Processed sugar was introduced to the human diet only 300 years ago, and the idea of mainlining pre-dissolved sugar bombs in the form of soda as anything except a treat probably is less than 60 years old.

    Your body's reaction to these sugar bombs is... not healthy.
    • by quenda ( 644621 )

      Recognize that fat is not the devil, processed sugar is.

      NOTHING is the devil, except quantity. People have been eating high-carb diets for thousands of years without getting fat.
      OK, sugar is worse than white bread/rice, but not *that* much different. I think you oversimplify.
      Its not as simple as cutting sugar. I know, I tried.

    • That is just the tip of the sugar cube. The problem isn't just processed sugar, it's processed food altogether.

      Overprocessed, easily digestible food where fiber doesn't even have observer status anymore.

    • by Bert64 ( 520050 )

      The more food is messed with the worse it gets...
      We've been eating natural occurring sugars in the form of fruits for millions of years too.

      It was government drives to "reduce fat" that resulted in so much sugar being added to foods in the first place.
      Now they want to "reduce sugar", so they will inevitably replace it with something else. So far every time they'd tried to replace a "bad" ingredient, the replacement has been worse. A lot of these new formulations haven't been tried and tested, who knows what

  • Who have no concept of "good looks". Wouldn't they assume that the average is the norm? They'd probably say that over half the humans look fine, but some really malnourished.

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