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Earth

Conditions On Earth May Be Moving Outside the 'Safe Operating Space' For Humanity (cnn.com) 323

An anonymous reader quotes a report from CNN: Human actions have pushed the world into the danger zone on several key indicators of planetary health, threatening to trigger dramatic changes in conditions on Earth, according to a new analysis from 29 scientists in eight countries. The scientists analyzed nine interlinked "planetary boundaries," which they define as thresholds the world needs to stay within to ensure a stable, livable planet. These include climate change, biodiversity, freshwater and land use, and the impact of synthetic chemicals and aerosols. Human activities have breached safe levels for six of these boundaries and are pushing the world outside a "safe operating space" for humanity, according to the report, published on Wednesday in the journal Science Advances.

The nine boundaries, first set out in a 2009 paper, aim to establish a set of defined "limits" on changes humans are making to the planet -- from pumping out planet-heating pollution to clearing forests for farming. Beyond these limits, the theory goes, the risk of destabilizing conditions on Earth increases dramatically. The limits are designed to be conservative, to enable society to solve the problems before reaching a "very high risk zone," said Katherine Richardson, a professor in biological oceanography at the University of Copenhagen and a co-author on the report. She pointed to the unprecedented summer of extreme weather the world has just experienced at 1.2 degrees Celsius of global warming. "We didn't think it was going to be like this at 1 degree [Celsius]" she said. "No human has experienced the conditions that we're experiencing right now," she added.

Of the three boundaries that scientists found are still within a safe space, two of them -- ocean acidification and the amount of aerosols in the atmosphere -- are moving in the wrong direction. There is some good news, however. The ozone layer was on the wrong side of the boundary in the 1990s, Richardson said. But thanks to international cooperation to phase out ozone-depleting chemicals, it is on track to recover completely. Crossing planetary boundaries does not mean the world has reached a disastrous tipping point. Hitting one does not mean "falling off a cliff," Richardson said. But it is a clear warning signal. The significance of the planetary boundaries model is that it doesn't analyze climate and biodiversity in isolation, the report authors said. Instead, it looks at the interaction of both, as well as a host of other ways humans are affecting the planet. Breaching one boundary is likely to have knock-on effects for others.

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Conditions On Earth May Be Moving Outside the 'Safe Operating Space' For Humanity

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  • by lsllll ( 830002 ) on Wednesday September 13, 2023 @10:46PM (#63846980)

    The scientists analyzed nine interlinked "planetary boundaries," which they define as thresholds the world needs to stay within to ensure a stable, livable planet.

    The planet will continue to survive despite all the crossed boundaries they cited in the paper, as will human and other life forms. The real question is how much will humans suffer because of the crossover of these boundaries.

    • by cats-paw ( 34890 )

      yep.

      Looking forward to running the experiment and seeing how many humans survive.

    • by Barny ( 103770 ) on Thursday September 14, 2023 @12:24AM (#63847100) Journal

      The planet? Absolutely.

      Other life forms? For sure.

      Humans? Hopefully, but... [youtube.com]

    • by ShanghaiBill ( 739463 ) on Thursday September 14, 2023 @12:34AM (#63847114)

      The problem with shrill alarmism predicting imminent doom is that it has the opposite effect than the authors intend. Rather than scaring denialists into accepting AGW, it feeds into "climate fatigue," and people roll their eyes. Then, in a few years, the denialists will point at this report as yet another Chicken Little false alarm.

      • Rather than scaring denialists into accepting AGW, it feeds into "climate fatigue," and people roll their eyes.

        Although fatigue is real, there's an even worse problem.

        We've already crossed several lines where people claimed the climate was irreparably damaged.

        If that's the case why do anything else then? You can't possibly help past that boundary after all, that's what we were told, so why bother?

        These new boundaries are just more lines in the sand that will be crossed, with even more people saying "well w

        • Well, we could try to eke out a few more years so we'll be dead by the time it really comes crashing down and it's not us but our kids that have to deal with the fallout.

          Ain't that a goal worth pursuing?

        • by Namarrgon ( 105036 ) on Thursday September 14, 2023 @01:52AM (#63847190) Homepage

          We've already crossed several lines where people claimed the climate was irreparably damaged.

          If that's the case why do anything else then? You can't possibly help past that boundary after all, that's what we were told, so why bother?

          Because we're still actively damaging it? Perhaps we could possibly help by, I dunno, ceasing to make it even worse?

          There's a lot of room between "great climate for humans" and "completely broken". The more GHGs we keep emitting, the further we move away from the norm we're used to, the harder it will be to adapt, and the more expensive it will get in costs and suffering.

          Claiming it's "too late to do anything" is just the next stage of Mann's six stages of climate denial [wikipedia.org].

        • by stooo ( 2202012 )

          >> If that's the case why do anything else then? You can't possibly help ... so why bother?
          That is wrong.
          You can, and you should bother.

          "The titanic is sinking, most people will drown, so why bother swimming ??"

      • I almost wonder if there is a deliberate push to cause "climate fatigue", just so people don't care anymore. There are issues wrapped into issues with the entire attempts to deal with AGW:

        Heavy handed attempts at regulation, which never address the bigwigs who do the most damage to the environment, but put the burden on the middle class or others. You can take away peoples' cars, but until you address the coal plants and nations building them hand-over-fist, at best, it is virtue signaling, standing on th

        • It will be nuclear reactors, ideally thorium based, and of a modern, passively safe design that is idiot-resistant.

          So, one that doesn't exist yet. If you can't just walk away from it and have it automatically scram without any external power then it's unacceptable from a risk standpoint.

          Also, if you have the battery technology you're talking about, you don't need nuclear. At all.

      • The problem with shrill alarmism predicting imminent doom is that it has the opposite effect than the authors intend. Rather than scaring denialists into accepting AGW, it feeds into "climate fatigue," and people roll their eyes. Then, in a few years, the denialists will point at this report as yet another Chicken Little false alarm.

        I do agree that I get annoyed with the alarmism, but I have to point out that https://www.science.org/doi/10... [slashdot.org]">the actual paper is a lot more clear. It doesn't say that this will make the world uninhabitable, what it says is these are boundaries beyond which we will be experiencing conditions not previously seen in the holocene (that is, the last 10,000 years) and therefore may experience unpredictable effects.

        It then goes further, putting upper and lower limits on the locations of those boundaries, bu

      • by AmiMoJo ( 196126 ) on Thursday September 14, 2023 @09:41AM (#63847986) Homepage Journal

        The actual research is quite calm and objective, it's the reporting that is the issue. They need a clickbait headline that will either concern or enrage, but either way draw in eyeballs.

        It's going to be painful because a lot of people are going to have to be forced to take action. Either economically, or at the end of a gun if things get really bad. The worst part is that if it wasn't for vested interests throwing propaganda at them, we could all benefit greatly from this opportunity.

    • by Opportunist ( 166417 ) on Thursday September 14, 2023 @01:19AM (#63847150)

      In the eternal words of George Carlin "Save the planet? The planet doesn't need saving. The planet is fine. We're fucked".

    • They're talking about famine & disease on a massive scale. How much more suffering do you think would be acceptable? How far should we deplete the world's resources & ecosystems for our own creature comforts, causing millions to die horrible, miserable deaths?
      • by lsllll ( 830002 )
        They can talk about famine and disease on a massive scale all they want, but in reality they don't have any idea what is going to happen. The cause and effect of AGW is too complex for any of them to fully understand. Anybody who says otherwise with any certainty is a liar whose crystal ball is not really crystal.

        Having said that, let me offer this scenario in case they're right. The speed of human lives is very small compared to climate change, even when we're the cause of it. Add to that that we ar
        • The speed of human lives is very small compared to climate change, even when we're the cause of it. Add to that that we are extremely adaptable and very good chances are we'll come up with solutions when in a dire situation.

          Wrong. This is the problem with human-caused climate change: the rate of change is fast enough that it happens in a few decades times.
          Humans have not really been very adaptable if you look at history. Drought, famines, diseases (plagues) have caused million of people to die, at a time where world population was below 1 billion, so it was actually a good proportion of the world population. For instance, the Black Death [wikipedia.org] wiped between 17% and 50% of the world population of the 14th century (broad estimates). M

    • by dbialac ( 320955 )
      The bigger question is: when will somebody take a serious look at the past million years instead of the last 10,000. Having a stable climate on earth is rare. Hope you enjoyed the last 10,000 years that were different. Yes, we're making the shift more dramatic, but climate change would happen even if we weren't here.
      • by necro81 ( 917438 )

        The bigger question is: when will somebody take a serious look at the past million years instead of the last 10,000. Having a stable climate on earth is rare. Hope you enjoyed the last 10,000 years that were different. Yes, we're making the shift more dramatic, but climate change would happen even if we weren't here.

        Climatologists have had [google.com] that [bas.ac.uk] data [wikipedia.org] for at least 30 years. You're right, the climate over the past ~million years has undergone great shifts - and of larger magnitude than what we're currently

        • by dbialac ( 320955 )
          Quoting myself:

          Yes, we're making the shift more dramatic

          But even in the last thousand, we've experienced the Medieval Warming Period, the Little Ice Age, and our current period. The transition from the Little Ice Age to the current period happened in a few decades. 1776 was a part of the Little Ice Age. During this period, it snowed in June. Krakatoa had nothing to do with it; it came decades later. 1850 is roughly the end of the Little Ice Age.

          • by necro81 ( 917438 )

            But even in the last thousand, we've experienced the Medieval Warming Period, the Little Ice Age

            Those phenomena in the past 1000 years certainly were disruptive, but 1) weren't necessarily global in scope, 2) were miniscule in magnitude compared to the swings in the past million years, and 3) were downright gentle in their rate of change compared to the present. This XKCD comic [xkcd.com] is a fine illustration.

      • Speaking of the last 10000 years, humans seem hard-wired to believe they live in end-times. Probably because they over-estimate their own importance, or powers.
  • At least we won't starve.
  • by systemd-anonymousd ( 6652324 ) on Wednesday September 13, 2023 @11:28PM (#63847032)

    GLOBAL.

    BOILING.

  • by Tablizer ( 95088 ) on Wednesday September 13, 2023 @11:42PM (#63847054) Journal

    People are not going to do shit until their home is wiped out, then they'll be too busy surviving day to day to care about the big picture.

    • When your 'big picture' involves enslaving, impoverishing, and ultimately slaughtering a shitload of people, it is no wonder they refuse to listen to you. You climate hysterics are like some combination of chicken little and Mao.
  • by klipclop ( 6724090 ) on Thursday September 14, 2023 @12:28AM (#63847108)
    I'm no scientist, but I think the head count is the problem. I'm pretty sure humanity will survive just fine one total population and the rate of population growth returns to the mean. Hopefully it's gradual and peaceful and not fast and violent.
    • Russia is working pretty hard on it, but they can't do it all by themselves. The US used to do some great work in this regard, too, but in the past years they suddenly stopped.

      C'mon, people, this has to be a global effort, we can't get anywhere if we only have limited conflicts. Break out the nukes, it's time to be serious about saving this planet from the disease that we are.

      • Guns & bombs are very inefficient ways to kill large numbers of people. As the British empire firmly established over a few centuries, all you have to do is fuck with people's food supply & millions die pretty quickly. Climate change will undoubtedly affect our food supply. We have ongoing famine & disease on massive scales to look forward to.
    • Indeed. Population in the civilized word is about to decline, though.

      African poulation is about to rise. In 2100 the four biggest cities in the world are most likely all in Africa.
      After that growth they will also stabilize if they do not kill each other first over which ever god they prefer at that time.

      As regions near the equator become more and more inhabitable, denizens there were gradually die off.
  • ... we'd be going nuclear ASAP.

    Since we aren't, I don't think that even the approved elites really believe all this. But dang, it's a useful political and social tool.

    • The approved elites want to maintain a population below 500 million.

      Too bad that would prevent a planet-killer asteroid defection program, but they're retarded too.

      They think their AGI God will save them.

    • by HiThere ( 15173 )

      No. 20 years ago that was the right answer, today it's solar, wind, and global grid interconnections, because those can be built a LOT quicker.

    • They will soon, but not [wikipedia.org] as you hope.
  • Slap a experimental sicker on both sides, load it up with 100LL and lets take this for a flight. Wait we are on a flight, all seem to be doing well, unless there is another big rock out their incepting our path... think we can deal with moving the average spherical person 16 miles north or south per decade. When you put it terms of growing season, we are feeding a half a billion more people per decade because Northern EU, Canada and Russia could grow more stuff. Longer days in more northern places,

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