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Earth

'Never-Ending' UK Rain Made 10 Times More Likely By Climate Crisis, Study Says (theguardian.com) 154

The seemingly "never-ending" rain last autumn and winter in the UK and Ireland was made 10 times more likely and 20% wetter by human-caused global heating, a study has found. From a report: More than a dozen storms battered the region in quick succession between October and March, which was the second-wettest such period in nearly two centuries of records. The downpour led to severe floods, at least 20 deaths, severe damage to homes and infrastructure, power blackouts, travel cancellations, and heavy losses of crops and livestock.

The level of rain caused by the storms would have occurred just once in 50 years without the climate crisis, but is now expected every five years owing to 1.2C of global heating reached in recent years. If fossil fuel burning is not rapidly cut and the global temperature reaches 2C in the next decade or two, such severe wet weather would occur every three years on average, the analysis showed. [...] The analysis, conducted by climate scientists working as part of the World Weather Attribution group, compared how likely and how intense the wet winter was in today's heated world with how likely it would have been in a world without high levels of carbon emissions. Warmer air can hold more water vapour and therefore produce more rain. Hundreds of "attribution studies" have shown how global heating is already supercharging extreme weather such as heatwaves, wildfires, droughts and storms across the world.

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'Never-Ending' UK Rain Made 10 Times More Likely By Climate Crisis, Study Says

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  • It was none stop... (Score:4, Interesting)

    by MarkHughes4096 ( 6345560 ) on Wednesday May 22, 2024 @01:09PM (#64491317)
    We moved to our new house on Dec 20th and we didn't get a dry day for over 3 months... However we no longer seem to get snow either and I don't recall much frost either.
  • How long until things return to "normal" after fossil fuel use is successfully cut to the levels they're wanting to see?

    I think the fact is, you won't be able to get any kind of quick change to reverse these weather pattern changes, if in fact, they're right about the cause.

    Maybe the next generation would see the reversal. But better to get used to all of this as what we've got to work with, IMO.

    • Re:Ok, so .... (Score:5, Insightful)

      by Darinbob ( 1142669 ) on Wednesday May 22, 2024 @02:22PM (#64491521)

      The reversal will be a very very long time in the future. There is a feedback loop happening which will prevent the average temperatures from dropping as fast as the rose. Couple that with humans rapidly altering the planet versus humans not doing anything notable to stop it. Historically, changes in climate occured gradually, so if left alone the change back to a lower temperature would be gradual as well.

      An automobile analogy is de rigueur on slashdot. Imagine speeding in your car by jamming down the accelerator to pass another car. Now lift the foot off the accelerator. The car slows down much more gradually than it sped up.

    • by skam240 ( 789197 )

      There is no getting used to the problem until it is fixed because the weather will just keep getting warmer as long as we're still adding large amounts of green house gasses to the atmosphere.

  • Are you serious? (Score:2, Insightful)

    by GregMmm ( 5115215 )

    There is more rain. It must be climate change! There is a drought. It must be climate change! There are bigger storms. It must be climate change!

    Eventually everyone will stop listening if everything is from climate change.

    By the way, there is one thing that is constant in our world climate... it changes.

    • May be worth mentioning that the records began in 1766, so this is definitely a long term change. It is warmer and wetter here than in previous generations. It causes difficulties for farming - we had huge floods all over the place. It is not a joke, regardless of root cause.
    • by Viol8 ( 599362 )

      Theres torrential rain, ah we've had it before! Theres a drought, meh, we've had droughts before.

      Whenever someone mentions climate change causing more severe weather events some genius will pop up to remind us that weather existed before.

      Well no shit. Point is numbnuts , the weather is getting more extreme very much oinline with rising global temps which in turn is inline with rising CO2 levels.

      HTH.

      • I love peeps who have to insult others to make a point.

        I'm pointing out every time there is a natural anomaly, people just say climate change. If you say the sky is falling over and over again, no one will believe the message. If every time climate change is spoken it's extreme, then people will stop listening.

        I think you will find it hard to prove there is more severe weather. Compared to what, and when? Not saying no to climate change, but if you are going to make a statement, it's on you to provide e

        • by Viol8 ( 599362 )

          "I think you will find it hard to prove there is more severe weather."

          Keep believing that if it makes you feel better about driving your V8 SUV.

          " it's on you to provide evidence."

          You might want to go learn about this great tool called Google.

          https://news.sky.com/story/eng... [sky.com]

    • Global warming was projected to result in more instances of extreme weather of all kinds, and that's what is happening.

      >> one thing that is constant in our world climate... it changes

      Nope, you are talking about local weather. Global climate had been fairly constant for the past several thousand years until the temperature recently started ramping up sharply.

      • I'm noping your nope, so yup.

        Global climate "fairly constant" for the past several thousand years eh? Got those records to prove that? Have some rain collection from 2000BC? Know how many hurricanes ran around and where in the 1600's?

        Just the facts please.

    • There is more rain. It must be climate change!

      Errr no, that's not what the article said at all. The literal reverse actually, it's a model showing that climate change is predicting more rain.

    • Are you dumb ... (Score:2, Flamebait)

      by Qbertino ( 265505 )

      ... or something?

      That's exactly what man made climate change means: More weather extremes. And yes, more heavy rain ( because a hotter atmosphere can hold more humidity ) and more extreme heat and resulting droughts because it's _global_ _warming_.

      Duh. ... holy cow ... ... Perhaps go back to TikTok(?), slashdot may be out of your league. Just sayin'.

      • It's amusing to see someone say someone else is too dumb to participate in a discussion and then say:
        1) climate change increases rainfall due to more heat
        2) climate change increases droughts due to more heat

        Unironically with no further explanation.

        It's beautiful how you can believe those two things at once and present them right next to each in the same post and not see the problem.

  • by davide marney ( 231845 ) on Wednesday May 22, 2024 @01:52PM (#64491437) Journal

    FTA:

    "Dr Friederike Otto, a climate scientist at Imperial College London and co-founder of WWA [World Weather Attribution, the group issuing the report], said: “To put it bluntly, climate change is already making life shittier. Wetter winters are flooding farms, cancelling football matches, overflowing sewage systems and [making] groceries more expensive. Thankfully, we know the solutions. Replace oil, gas and coal with cleaner, cheaper renewable sources of energy; insulate homes, and restore nature. All this will make life cheaper and better for all, not more expensive.”

    The WWA, like the IPCC, does not study climate in the abstract, they study "extreme" climate events in the case of the WWA, and climate "change" in the case of the IPCC. These organizations have a definite point of view and are trying to put some science behind their politics. These are not disinterested scientists just relating their findings without favor. As the quote indicates, they start with the belief that climate "change" is "already making life shittier".

    It is perfectly possible to have a political opinion and be a scientist at the same time, but as a consumer of their reports, one needs to bear their apriori assumptions in mind. It's the kind of report that the Guardian and its readers would find agreeable, but certainly doesn't cover all the facts impartially.

    • >> As the quote indicates, they start with the belief

      Utter bullshit. He was describing the current situation as it is observed.

      >> certainly doesn't cover all the facts impartially

      So what are these impartial facts and where do they come from? The dirty energy industry?

      • The "impartial facts" that are missing are all of those that are unrelated to extreme climate events -- because extreme events are the only kinds of events that the group who authored this report work on. That is their mission, there is nothing skeevy about it or hidden, it is just their context. As a result, they aren't going to tell you about anything outside of what they get paid to study.

        • The prediction of AGW is not that everything will get worse everywhere all of the time. Get that out of your head immediately if you want to make sense.

          The prediction is that things will become different, and more extreme on average. A few places might get better all the time, though that is unlikely because we're adding energy to a chaotic system. If you've ever complained that the weather report is inaccurate then you should be able to grasp what that means. It's going to be more inaccurate. But also, the

        • >> all of those that are unrelated to extreme climate events

          So you couldn't come up with any?

  • by Qbertino ( 265505 ) <moiraNO@SPAMmodparlor.com> on Wednesday May 22, 2024 @02:29PM (#64491553)

    ... as usual in the UK?

    That's what you get for leaving the EU: Abandoned on an island where it constantly rains and you get your water out of two taps, either freezing cold or boiling hot!

  • by GotNoRice ( 7207988 ) on Wednesday May 22, 2024 @02:35PM (#64491577)
    No amount of western legislation is going to stop China from continuing to build coal power-plants as fast as it can. Our push for Green energy is funding the Chinese economy so that they can build more coal power plants for themselves, and buy more Russian oil. Our bans on Oil production are raising the cost of Oil and providing incentives for Russia and middle-eastern countries to dramatically expand their Oil operations. Russia in particular is now using this "liquid gold" to fund their war. No one said a word as cheap gas scooters with extremely inefficient 2-stroke gas motors proliferated all throughout Asia and India, causing Smog far worse than places like Los Angeles *ever* saw. We will never solve this issue until we start looking at this globally, acknowledge that hostile dictatorships are now leading the charge on pollution output, and there is no legislation that will fix that.
  • Because... (Score:5, Funny)

    by argStyopa ( 232550 ) on Wednesday May 22, 2024 @02:41PM (#64491601) Journal

    ....Britain has always been famously dry otherwise.

    The arid plains of Cornwall stretch up into the steppes of Mercia and the barrens of Northumbria, and the sweltering City of London is a jewel set amidst the stark, toppling dunes of Surrey and Kent. Sure, you can find an occasional oasis along the old Roman roads, for example the large one near Chester, on Watling street, but they are also common hunting ground for the nomadic tribes of camel-mounted Scots sweeping down from the Scotian Maghreb.

    Britons famously invented a garment to catch precious moisture, called Stilsuits, which they wear to cross the most desolate of areas, where great Sandworms are always a danger.

  • by Applehu Akbar ( 2968043 ) on Wednesday May 22, 2024 @04:39PM (#64491901)

    The seemingly "never-ending" rain last autumn and winter in the UK and Ireland was made 10 times more likely and 20% wetter by human-caused global heating, a study has found.

    The Orthodox Warmists tell us that ongoing drought in my region comes from the same cause. Why don't our laws of physics work in the same way yours do, at least for a year or two?

  • you mean nothing changed then,
  • ... welcomes you.

  • Bloody Londoners (Score:2, Insightful)

    by devslash0 ( 4203435 )

    I live in the North. Things here were absolutely fine. But hey, a little bit more rain down South and, suddenly, the doomsayers are out and the world is ending. This reminds me of how UK approaches other issues like poverty and distribution of money from taxes. As long as something doesn't affect London, "everyone" is fine, Londoners and our government don't give a monkeys about the rest of the country as long as they are in the clear. Serves them well this time.

    • Sounds like DC, New York, Chicago, LA.

    • The large amount of London hate comes from a deep seated feudal belief that people who have less land are worth less. Londoners have very little land, but the London Metro area is about 1/4 of the entire country population wise. If London acts like it has that, then people lose their shit, because, Londoners per person should have less influence. Because they all live so close together, in a tiny little area. i.e.have less land.

      Londoners and our government don't give a monkeys about the rest of the country

  • Hardly know where to begin with this nonsense.

    There is no "global heating". This is the Guardians hysterical style guide kicking in again. There is a modest amount of global warming, some of which is probably due to human CO2 emissions. A point of view you will not find in the Guardian, but you will in the IPCC reports. Not that anyone writing for the Guardian ever reads them!

    Then we have "climate scientists working as part of the World Weather Attribution group". The group exists solely to attribute a

    • by Budenny ( 888916 )

      I would add that anyone watching the BBC weather coverage can see the weather systems graphically displayed every half hour as they move across the country. The BBC seems to have left the Met Office for its weather coverage and gone to the Meteo Group - or at any rate, an alternative provider of weather info.

      The result is that its science and its weather reporting seem to be coming from different planets. The science reporting is all about the doom of the climate crisis, and every bit of weather is due to

  • you guys need to remember the warm70s and freezing 80s instead of jumping on the next short term drama if you want to defend the planet, start with pollution, i've seen it kill ocean life
  • Previously, the likelihood was 15%. Now it is 150%.

Keep up the good work! But please don't ask me to help.

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