China Extends Dominance Over US in Critical Technology Race (aspi.org.au) 64
China has overtaken the United States as the dominant force in critical technology research, according to a report from the Australian Strategic Policy Institute. The study found China now leads in 57 of 64 critical technologies, up from just three technologies in 2003-2007, while U.S. leadership dropped from 60 to seven technologies over the same period.
China has made significant gains in quantum sensors, high-performance computing, and semiconductor chip manufacturing. The U.S. maintains its edge in quantum computing, vaccines, and natural language processing. The report identified 24 technologies at "high risk" of Chinese monopoly, including radar, advanced aircraft engines, and drone technology - nearly double from last year's assessment. India has also emerged as a rising power, ranking among the top five countries in 45 technologies and displacing the U.S. for second place in biological manufacturing and distributed ledgers.
China has made significant gains in quantum sensors, high-performance computing, and semiconductor chip manufacturing. The U.S. maintains its edge in quantum computing, vaccines, and natural language processing. The report identified 24 technologies at "high risk" of Chinese monopoly, including radar, advanced aircraft engines, and drone technology - nearly double from last year's assessment. India has also emerged as a rising power, ranking among the top five countries in 45 technologies and displacing the U.S. for second place in biological manufacturing and distributed ledgers.
Gee, a think tank paper pushing a political agenda (Score:5, Insightful)
Who'd-a thunk.
Every word should be taken with a grain of salt. Listening to the low-grade PhDs talk about the transparent attempts to influence political discourse at their desk was very disheartening. The process is - money is paid to think tank, documents like this are generated, they are used to lobby legislators for something or other, and this provides the 'intellectual heft' to justify the policy. A few years later, it's demonstrated to be horseshit. Rinse and repeat, while the PhDs go off to do something else less soul-crushing with the rest of their careers.
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I hope you enjoy your trip up the Nile. But watch out for Chinese crocodiles!
Re:Gee, a think tank paper pushing a political age (Score:5, Insightful)
I hope you enjoy your trip up the Nile. But watch out for Chinese crocodiles!
I sympathize with your position, and my initial thoughts were in line with yours. But I think GP has a valid point. The truth probably contains elements of China's tech ascent, America's tech descent, and self-serving propaganda designed to take advantage of both.
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Everybody has a point of view, and that means almost as a corollary that everyone has a *stake* in a point of view. So you should *always* consider that as a factor in anyone's thinking. The idea that someone saying something that's self-serving makes that thing automatically false means there is no truth, which I think pretty close to the position of people who are especially fond of circumstantial ad hominem.
Honest people are up front about their biases and try to treat opposition position fairly, but
Australian think tank [Re:Gee, a think tank pa...] (Score:4, Insightful)
The Australians pay a lot more attention to China than the U.S. or Europe, because they're a lot closer.
Re: Australian think tank [Re:Gee, a think tank pa (Score:1)
Not if you include all those military bases spread along China's coast.
There's also Guam, and Alaska...surely they're significantly closer than Australia?
Re:Gee, a think tank paper pushing a political age (Score:5, Insightful)
Isn't a lot of it quite obvious to anyone paying attention though?
DJI is dominating the drone market. All the good 3D printers are Chinese. Hikvision is a powerhouse in the CCTV market. Huawei still sells plenty of phones and tablets, despite the sanctions, and are leading with wireless comms R&D and enterprise hardware.
China clearly has the best EV batteries and drivetrains, as evidenced by everyone else buying them. Teslas are made in the US and China, and the Chinese ones are just better. Batteries are more robust, charge faster, go further, and the quality of the overall car is higher. Ditto for Chinese brands, they now rival German luxury quality.
On renewables China dominates the solar market, both for panels and inverters. For wind the only reason anyone else gets much of a look-in is because they can't meet domestic demand before really pushing exports. Grid scale batteries we have already covered.
They have the best rail in the world, the fastest trains, and will probably overtake Japan for maglev too. Nobody comes close to them when it comes to digging tunnels either.
China has competitive supercomputers. It has its own domestic CPUs and GPUs that are rapidly advancing and already good enough for a lot of purposes. They have high end flash memory production, and RAM.
There are people on YouTube who detail buying Chinese construction equipment, from power tools to excavators. To an extent you get what you pay for, but there are some genuinely good products there and for very reasonable prices even after you ship them. Not really surprising, given how much construction China does.
Audiophiles are finding that their HiFi gear is competitive now. About 15 years ago I got some Yuin PK1 earbuds and I've yet to hear anything better.
This year Chinese scientists cured type 2 diabetes in some patients. You probably think they were lying, but they are going to have that commercialized and exported in the next few years so we shall see.
Chinese aircraft are getting good, fast, as are the engines. It's pretty clear that in a few more years Airbus and Boeing will have stiff competition, as will RR and other engine manufacturers. It's another classic "oh but they are just copying, once they catch up they won't be able to overtake on their own", followed by "we need sanctions because of communism/slave labour/cooties" when what they really mean is "we need sanctions because they overtook us, again!"
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Stopping Chinese dominance was a topic for 30 years ago, not today. Becoming comfortable with a multipolar world created by China's rise and then their ultimate hegemony is where we need to be.
Instead, we blew our wad on Islamism, which was a waste of time.
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Instead, we blew our wad on Islamism, which was a waste of time.
Yep, we flushed trillions down the hole of suppressing Islam, even founded a colony in the middle east and funded its committing genocide, and Islam is still the only religion on the planet which is gaining followers. What a fuckoff waste of lives, years, and money.
Re: Gee, a think tank paper pushing a political a (Score:1)
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Isn't a lot of it quite obvious to anyone paying attention though?
It is. But there are a lot of idiots that think denying reality changes reality. It obviously does not.
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I don't doubt that China is making a lot of progress on a lot of fronts. I do think saying that they are dominating in nearly all areas of critical research is probably overstating the case.
I also know that such a think tank report is being created because someone is looking to make some money off of this by stoking fear.
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The problem was they were in a race to the bottom and this lead to a development mind set of do it quickly until it looked the part with no consideration for t
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For example, the cars they are exporting are a mixture of very affordable (but still very good) like the SAIC brands (MG etc.) and really high end luxury vehicles like Nio.
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All the good 3D printers are Chinese.
Wut. 3D printing is a way too varied field to make a single claim like that. Which market segment, which technology and material type?
. It has its own domestic CPUs and GPUs that are rapidly advancing and already good enough for a lot of purposes
I've heard little about GPUs. There appears to be nothing competitive at the moment as far as I can tell
as are the engines
Also not heard anything about that. Turkey are definitely trying to ramp up, but they don't have anything
Think Tank Revenue (Score:2)
Only yesterday I was pondering; how do all these think tanks make money?
Thanks for explaining.
Education system (Score:5, Insightful)
But it's all good because we'll teach "Creationism" in US schools and force 'em to post the 10 Commandments!
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Yes, and will get far worse next year. But at least the children in my state will get the "good jobs". Where I live, here they still value science and real education. No matter what the US Federal Gov. does, this State will still fight for their kids.
China may or may not have overtaken the US yet, but it will in the next 4 years when the GOP undoes everything Biden got passed and slaps on their tariffs. But hey, the billionaires will get their nice cushy tax cut. Who cares about the deficit anyway.
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So anyone who dismisses creationism is automatically the wokest of woke people to you?
He, I went to a "big" creationism museum. That building had more bunk than the army barracks. It wasn't even creationism, they had exhibits "proving" that ancient Egypt existed, thus proving the Genesis stories about Moses. All the dumb stuff was there, 6000 year old earth (for some reason it never goes up to 6001), grand canyon created by deluge of Noah, geocentrism, etc.
Any school that teaches creationism is not going
Honest question (Score:4, Interesting)
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China has been known for publishing tens of thousands of fake research papers...
Recognisable, no doubt, by their complete lack of citations or supporting evidence.
By the way, where is yours?
Re:Honest question (Score:5, Informative)
https://www.economist.com/chin... [economist.com]
https://qz.com/978037/china-pu... [qz.com]
https://www.nytimes.com/2017/1... [nytimes.com]
https://www.ft.com/content/324... [ft.com]
https://www.nature.com/article... [nature.com]
Re:Honest question (Score:4, Insightful)
China has been known for publishing tens of thousands of fake research papers, and I wonder if this technological leap is actually real and not something fabricated as well.
While there is indeed a problem with fake research papers coming out of China [ref [economist.com]], it's nevertheless true that there is also a lot of leading-edge research going on in China. The bottom-tier research institutions may be producing low-quality work, but the top-tier research institutions are not. With a population over four times that of the U.S., a culture that pushes children to excel in science, and a government that is very strongly funding science programs in the universities and technology research in both universities and industry, yes, they are indeed establishing a dominant record in technology.
Pay attention to recent research results. The Chinese push is very evident.
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The fact that they have this technology, which is ahead of ours so can't be stolen unless they also have a time machine, and are pushing out products that use it is all the proof you need.
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China has a fake-science problem, yes. But all these advances are _despite_ that problem and they are real.
Re: Honest question (Score:2)
They'd hide it (Score:1)
> China has been known for publishing tens of thousands of fake research papers
When China finds a good military idea, it will not be published. Thus, basing such a study on anything public should be taken with a big grain of soy sauce.
An alternative if it accidentally got out is to flood ideas around the concept with fake papers to bury it in BS.
This is the result of theft for generations (Score:3, Insightful)
China has systematically stolen R&D work product and IP from US and Western research, industrial, and academic institutions for over a half century, enabling it to leapfrog and skip decades of painstaking and meticulous R&D, and hundreds of billions of dollars of work, resulting in the greatest transfer of wealth in human history by any measure.
This doesn't mean China can't innovate â" it's simply the truth. What's worse, US and Western academics have often seen these collaborations as beneficial and for the "good of humanity". Even if individual Chinese researchers saw the collaborations the same way, the Chinese government and the CCP saw them through a different lens.
And now we see the results: China being able to cherry-pick the most successful research outcomes from US and Western work and expenditures, and now continue build on those, now even leading in many areas because they didn't have to explore countless dead ends and endure untold research failures on the path to success and discovery.
They just stole it, built on the best and most successful research, and here we are.
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Ah yes, that is the problem! China is way ahead in technology because it steals other people's. Er...
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Ah yes, that is the problem! China is way ahead in technology because it steals other people's. Er...
Steals it, adds to it, commercializes it, and sells it.
In the west, "not invented here [hypeinnovation.com]" syndrome is a barrier to innovation. In China, it's an opportunity.
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Steals it, adds to it, commercializes it, and sells it.
OMG, that's American Capitalism in a nutshell!
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Read my comment again. They were behind until recently, and used five decades of theft as a foundation. They skipped literally generations of R&D, and saved hundreds of billions -- indeed, likely trillions -- of dollars by stealing R&D and IP, primarily from the US. And now yes, they are innovating on top of that theft, by being able to take only the most successful and proven technologies and research, because we already did the work of lifetimes of researchers showing which things worked and which
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Indeed. Seems the person you responded to is lacking the proverbial two braincells.
Same as always through history (Score:2)
Theft happens everywhere at all levels of all societies. China has no monopoly on that one. There will be heaps of examples of historically innovations that have been "moved" to bigger manufacturing hubs and claimed as their own just simply because of outspending.
Patents are meant to regulate this concern but big money always wins for itself. Again, China has no monopoly on this mechanic. Just it's now getting good at it is all.
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And as the article is pointing out, eventually the big spending begets its own innovations.
Re: This is the result of theft for generations (Score:2)
You think western (and other) countries didn't "steal" IP while they were developing? Think again. The USA was guilty, for one.
China has now largely moved out of that phase of development...look out.
Re: This is the result of theft for generations (Score:2)
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Back in the 19th century, the USA blatantly stole technology and IP from the UK, then improved on much of it.
But that's what we call good old "Yankee ingenuity".
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China being able to cherry-pick the most successful research outcomes from US and Western work and expenditures, and now continue build on those, now even leading in many areas because they didn't have to explore countless dead ends and endure untold research failures on the path to success and discovery.
That's how all research works.
enabling it to leapfrog and skip decades of painstaking and meticulous R&D
That's also how all research works.
Someone works something out. And then every other researcher in the world tries to build upon it.
Opinion worth less than soggy used toilet paper. (Score:1)
An opinion written by a paid think-tank, from a nation that even the most casual of google lookups would reveal is too busy snogging and groping China.
Australia is tying their wagon to the Chinese horse, and what they don't know is the Chinese wheedle and cheat every partner they enter relations with.
We already got a taste of it, now we need more of the world to figure out what rats the Chinese gov't is, and shun them accordingly.
Don't people consider the source of an utterance before believing at as gospel
What the US needs to do (Score:2)
Think of it from an immigrant's view (Score:3)
US dominance in technology started largely due to World War II and its aftermath. The US got a massive influx of brilliant scientists and mathematicians. First, those who were Jewish fleeing the Nazis, and then later refugees from all over Europe. In order to hang on, the US needs to be open to letting those bright immigrants come here and thrive. Unfortunately, the trend the last few years has been the exact opposite, and with another incoming Trump administration, it is likely going to be even harder. The US is shooting itself in the foot.
You're absolutely correct, but consider that even Trump isn't going to do much to hurt his new tech friends. That anti-immigrant rhetoric is reserved for the poor immigrants, not the engineers. Secondly, OK, you're a brilliant software engineer. Where do you want to live? The choice is typically the USA or home.
So yeah, China is providing more opportunities for the Chinese-born minds, but say you're born in Croatia, picking a random country. You probably speak some English from school. Where are you
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We've been here before. A major reason Japan and Korea couldn't overtake the USA was because of their racism and xenophobia.
You can't go home again, and here isn't there any more. The USA still isn't THE world poster child for racism and xenophobia, but it's certainly one of them, especially now. Also, the great wealth of the USA compared to other nations was predicated upon our behavior in WWII, which began with war profiteering and continued with late entry while watching our "allies" get invaded and bombed, partially with supplies which we provided the third re!ch (like the fuel we sold to the SS.)
(looks like the crypto-Nazis
US racism is nothing compared to China's (Score:2)
The USA still isn't THE world poster child for racism and xenophobia, but it's certainly one of them, especially now.
The USA has issues with racism...but it's a matter of degrees. In the USA, if you're believed to be a racist, you're a pariah in most social circles...you're likely to lose your job and face severe social consequences. Even in MAGA nation, overt racism is frowned upon. They use racist dog whistles in conservative media, but in China, they don't bother pretending. Our "racism" is microaggressions and systemic biases. They need to be fixed, but at least we're in the state where we hide it. It's overt in
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At one point I would have agreed with you. But it sounds to me like you missed a lot of the messaging this last election. We are pretty openly and enthusiastically racist, xenophobic, and LGBTphobic now; even if there are enough worse places that we can't be called the "poster child" for it yet. And we can't even brush it off and blame gerrymandering or electoral college shenanigans and pretend that the majority of the country are decent people anymore. He won the popular vote this time. That bigotry i
People didn't vote Trump, but against status quo (Score:2)
At one point I would have agreed with you. But it sounds to me like you missed a lot of the messaging this last election. We are pretty openly and enthusiastically racist, xenophobic, and LGBTphobic now; even if there are enough worse places that we can't be called the "poster child" for it yet. And we can't even brush it off and blame gerrymandering or electoral college shenanigans and pretend that the majority of the country are decent people anymore. He won the popular vote this time. That bigotry is what we are now.
People didn't vote for Trump. They voted against the status quo. Trump is senile, disgusting, and not well-liked by more than 25%...maybe as little as 10% of the population. Biden was fired because people blamed him for inflation and thought Harris was more of the same. Very few of Trump's voters thought he did a good job. They just wanted to punish those in office.
I think they're foolish, personally and I think Biden did a great job, but there's one undeniable lesson...don't fuck with people's po
Re: What the US needs to do (Score:2)
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But you did try to emphasis the nice people who came, when some of the most important and influential were literal Nazis..
It is true that some of the important ones were literal Nazis. Many of the most important and influential were in that "Nice" group. Abraham Wald, Hans Bethe, and Enrico Fermi are famous examples (Fermi came to the US not because he was Jewish but because his wife was). Meanwhile many involved in the Manhattan Project were people born in the US but born to Jewish immigrants who had immigrated to the US. Oppenheimer, Feynman, and major examples. Pauli was not involved in the Manhattan project, but is anothe
Who exactly is this source? (Score:2)
An edge in "quantum computing"! Gee. (Score:2)
I am sooo impressed by that Fata Morgana!
Seems reasonable (Score:2)
I mean, other than giving the US DoD more money than they ask for, which will go to mostly pointless stuff, the US right wing HATES investing in science, and most basic research is funded that way. (What, a company "waste" money on something that might not pay off for 10 or 20 years, if at all? Holy ROI, NO!).
So the budget for that gets cut, because tax cuts for the wealhy.
Laughable (Score:2)
Who says these "experts" know anything at all about the state of tech research and deployment by ANY of these companies, and particularly the US?
It's one thing to point at something like consumer-grade toy drones and hobby drones used by youtubers where China is dominant largely because of the stupidity and overreach of US government regulators at the FCC and FAA, and an entirely different thing to evaluate military grade drones that are so obscure that even many elements within the US govt do not know abou
China is way behind (Score:3)
They still cannot produce a 3nm CPU.
They still cannot produce a leading CPU or GPU architecture.
They still cannot produce a better jet engine than the USA.
They still cannot produce a rocket engine that rivals Raptor 3.
They still cannot produce a robot hand that rivals the one on Optimus.
They don't have as many aircraft carriers, submarines, or fighter planes as the USA.
They will take at least a decade to catch up to where the USA is *today*.