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Unemployed Office Workers Are Having a Harder Time Finding New Jobs (msn.com) 223

More than 1.6 million Americans have been jobless for at least six months, up 50% since late 2022, despite the economy adding over two million jobs last year, Labor Department data shows.

The average job search now takes six months, primarily affecting high-paying sectors like tech, law, and media. While the 4.2% unemployment rate remains below pre-pandemic averages, job postings have dropped to one per unemployed worker from two in early 2022.

Software development, data science, and marketing roles are 20% below pre-pandemic levels, while healthcare and government sectors account for half of recent job creation. The number of Americans receiving unemployment benefits reached 1.8 million in late December, approaching post-pandemic highs, as wage growth declined to 4% from 6% during the early 2020s hiring peak.

Unemployed Office Workers Are Having a Harder Time Finding New Jobs

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  • Automation (Score:5, Interesting)

    by Luckyo ( 1726890 ) on Monday January 06, 2025 @11:20AM (#65066623)

    Everyone is gearing up for automation replacing most of the paper pusher jobs. Some have already been replaced, some are in the process of being replaced, with the only ones remaining being the ones directing the AI in how to do the job of ten paper pushers.

    And notably this isn't US, this is global. You can see this in many European nations as well, though at a delay due to language barrier. For those not aware, generative AIs are contextual, and context is language-specific. Very visible in the only relevant AI company in EU being specialized in French language AI development. This delays replacement of many paper pusher jobs with automation led by a single person in nations where local language doesn't yet have good AI base from which to train profession and task specific generative AI.

    But all that is coming. It's just that Anglosphere is the first in line because English is where most of the AI development effort has gone so far.

    • by Tablizer ( 95088 )

      > Everyone is gearing up for automation replacing most of the paper pusher jobs.

      True, but existing bots are still too stupid to make a notable dent. There are already tools to fill in forms semi-automatically, and they don't require AI.

      Those that use AI often guess wrong in hard to spot way. Data that looks almost right is a lot harder to spot than data that is clearly garbage or missing.

      Most repetitive form entry I see is "necessary" because the system was either designed poorly, needs an upgrade, or is

      • by Luckyo ( 1726890 )

        >existing bots are still too stupid to make a notable dent

        Depends on a task. Let me give you an example I recently found out about that demonstrates penetration and sufficient ability even in languages that are extremely different from English. In Japan, there's a special "work polite" form of honorific language that people are expected to use in official communications. It's somewhat flowery and very specific. It takes time and effort to both generate this language for workplace communications for those

  • a million? Why doesn't the US have laws like Europe, which protect citizens from eager foreigners, if qualified citizens are already available. I know the Musk argument: The H1Bs are brighter than those we already have. Really? Is the US educational system is that bad?
    • by Luckyo ( 1726890 )

      Last I checked from the X discussion, it was 85000 a year + exceptions. So nowhere near a million.

      • Re: (Score:3, Informative)

        true The annual limit for new H-1B visas is 65,000, plus an additional 20,000 for foreign professionals with a master's degree or higher from a U.S. institution: Annual cap: The annual cap for H-1B visas is 65,000. Additional visas: An additional 20,000 visas are available for foreign professionals with a master's degree or higher from a U.S. institution. Exemptions: Some H-1B workers are exempt from the cap, including those who work at or are petitioned for by: An institution of higher education An affilia
      • by Rinnon ( 1474161 )
        A common sense approach to the word "exceptions" would mean less than the ordinary allowance... but I've learned not to trust common sense when it comes to these sorts of conversations; so, how many exceptions are there?
        • by Luckyo ( 1726890 )

          No one seems to know. At least not the autists who pulled all the government data they could find and counted.

          Considering those are the kind of people who sit and count Russian armor left in bases from satellite images and try to classify it by model, type and condition, I would say that if they can't find and count it, it's going to be pretty arcane and esoteric. So it's probably the case of government legitimately not have a clue what its bureaucracy is actually doing. But it's still unlikely to be "a mil

      • I think the distinction is that there are 85,000 new visas are issued each year plus annual renewals. So the total number of H1B's at any moment in time is closer to 400k-500k.

        https://www.bbc.com/news/artic... [bbc.com]

        • by Luckyo ( 1726890 )

          Isn't that the default assumption? That's how you generally count large scale population changes. Births, deaths, migration?

    • they are willing to work 60-80 hours an week for low pay also they don't have big student loans to pay off

    • Without H1B visa program, many of those jobs would not be filles, regardless of the salary offered. Our workforce is short on math, engineering, and sciences. We're a nation of hairdressers and telephone sanitiers.

      • by Tablizer ( 95088 )

        Bullshit, co's often hire H1B's for generic CRUD dev, not fancy dancy engineering. Co's just want cheaper and/or more docile labor, being H1B's are essentially indentured servants.

      • Without H1B visa program, many of those jobs would not be filles, regardless of the salary offered. Our workforce is short on math, engineering, and sciences.

        Why would higher salaries not fix that problem?

      • by ctilsie242 ( 4841247 ) on Monday January 06, 2025 @01:41PM (#65067279)

        Tell that to the tech people who have been laid off for a year+, and who have gone from the Amazon offices to the Amazon warehouses to keep a roof over their heads.

        There are plenty of tech people. However, H-1Bs are dirt cheap, and are deported when fired, so employers can use them as slave labor.

        If the H-1B people are so valuable, ditch the H-1B visa, give them permanent residency with a short path to citizenship, so they get something because they are that critical. Show me why being beholden to a company like an indentured servant is anything but abuse.

    • by DarkOx ( 621550 )

      In theory the H1B system should give us a competitive advantage in that it ought to allow us to pluck highly specialized skills that were not expected to be needed in such quantities from abroad, and market forces should follow by driving workers to get training / educated in these areas going forward.

      Basically it *should* be industrial poaching at the national scale, and as such isn't a bad idea. In practice everyone cheats. I would say we should keep the h1b system or something like it but ... there shoul

    • by tlhIngan ( 30335 )

      a million? Why doesn't the US have laws like Europe, which protect citizens from eager foreigners, if qualified citizens are already available. I know the Musk argument: The H1Bs are brighter than those we already have. Really? Is the US educational system is that bad?

      Well, the laws weren't too great, because that's one of the reasons why the UK left the EU - they were fed up of "too many immigrants from the EU" taking jobs in the UK. (EU citizens have freedom to work anywhere in the EU, so many of the citi

  • Hint (Score:5, Insightful)

    by PPH ( 736903 ) on Monday January 06, 2025 @11:29AM (#65066665)

    Begin search for a new job before quitting your last one. You won't look like someone who got fired for cause. You'll also appear as a valuable staff member worth negotiating terms for.

    • ... unless one has already been made redundant thanks to AI and cheap foreign labour.

      I know many colleagues who also know others (mostly devs), who are now out of job, with little hope of finding another (in UK anyway).
      Agencies they have spoken to say they are flooded with over a thousand applicants for a single dev job.

      I'm not sure about other countries, but it's never been this bad in UK for developers.

  • by Qbertino ( 265505 ) <moiraNO@SPAMmodparlor.com> on Monday January 06, 2025 @11:34AM (#65066711)

    No joke.

    I'm a senior websoftware dev with 25 years of experience and a pretty solid knowledge and experience in self-marketing and self-promotion. I've been running a professional buzzword-compliant blog for more than 2 decades and have a quite impressive resume and project track. Regularly maintained and individually adjusted for each application.

    Last summer I started looking for a new job, while doing some full-time training on web and online related topics. I've never spent this long even clawing for feedback, let alone an interview last summer. I applied for 50+ jobs that basically were my resume in requirements. Bare minimum feedback was roughly 15%, with tons of ghosting and dropouts. I had 3-4 meaningful interviews with (eventually) two options, one of which was an office-presence-only web jockey job at an internal agency drowned in chaos and zero technical guidance and a borderline insulting wage. I eventually scored a decent gig a few weeks ago, after lowering my salary expectations by 15k+/year. Main job is a somewhat borked and badly documented Jamstack Angular application with a 4-year maintenance backlog with some easy WordPress / PHP stuff on the side. The boss and my collegues are nice, the timelines are chill, I'm the only dev around and it's 80% remote, so I'm good for now, even with the lower salary.

    However, the last weeks searching for a job with federal unemployment support (this is Germany) running out I seriously considered leaving Web/IT for good and learning a trade like car mechanic. Better than sitting around and doing nothing, and since I've gotten into ICE scooters in recent years I thought I'd help out at my local dealer and learn the trade. At least then I can fix my own scooter, no? ... Many openings had 200+ applications and just about everybody in the field I know has had a 100% drought since last spring/summer. A friend of mine is even closing up and/or repurposing is small IT corporation because customers are basically disfunctional with not even a decider to talk to about renewing the contracts.

    It's total mayhem out there right now and I expect the software industry of the last 3 decades to go through an epic shakeup and reformation. With most of the jobs we had just a few years ago going the way of the Dodo.

    • You do what you have to in order to get by, but auto tech is usually not a great job. It's generally flat rate so if business is slow you get to sit in your bay hoping for the next job. It's rough work where you're probably going to wreak your body and discover new aches and pains. The retirement and benefit plans either suck or are outright non-existent.

      Oh, and that door rate? That's not what the mechanic makes. Not anywhere near it -and given the aforementioned flat rate system, they ought to get a l

    • I feel like a lot of web development is going to shift to AI generated, which produces a lot of quick flashy looking websites, and then the site owners will realize all the web script code that supports the website is buggy and unsecure as all get out, resulting in a rush for code fixes.

      I could be wrong, but we will see.

    • by javaman235 ( 461502 ) on Monday January 06, 2025 @03:32PM (#65067659)

      In the US, all the blue collar jobs look ok, and sometimes pay ok, but they all come with unique hells, usually that have to do with destroying your body and health. Mechanic is one of the ones notorious for inducing certain injuries, often around the shoulders. You also need to wear the nitrile gloves every single time or get added to the cancer stats.

  • Elon and Donald said more H1B visas are needed...

    • Re:More H1B? (Score:5, Interesting)

      by Tablizer ( 95088 ) on Monday January 06, 2025 @12:01PM (#65066829) Journal

      Steve Bannon said he's going to lobby heavily against their pro-H1B stance. Something is deeply wrong when I end up rooting for Bannon; I feel like a dinosaur rooting for asteroids.

      (I've seen the H1B program abused at multiple companies. It's a sham if the actual purpose is about "shortages".)

    • by brunes69 ( 86786 )

      Here is the nuance that most Americans lose in this discussion.

      Outsourcing is now near zero effort. Platforms. like Deel.com and Trinet allow you to hire anyone in the world with very low overhead cost.

      As such - you are competing with the globe, no matter how you slice it. Either the job comes to the US (in which case they pay US taxes, at least), or the same person gets hired, just in their home country.

  • Maybe it's time to realize that like it or not, you need to get your butt into the office.
    • Re: accept RTO (Score:5, Interesting)

      by ScienceBard ( 4995157 ) on Monday January 06, 2025 @12:38PM (#65066975)

      I think it's far less about RTO than it is about massive layoffs in an industry that got bloated, with most layoffs in concentrated geographic areas. If you're in a tech hub most of the in-person jobs are being fought over because people don't want to move. And if you were making tech hub wages living in a high cost area you probably can't take a remote job for half pay either. That's going to lead to a pretty hard competitive market, especially for folks I'd consider "tech adjacent" like marketing.

      Anecdotally, my company is having a very hard time finding competent technical people willing to move here. We get applications, but most simply aren't qualified in terms of a math or science background. Twice we've had excellent candidates, but both rejected the offers when my management wouldn't budge on fully remote work (they didn't want to move here for the salary offered).

      My guess is the booming stock markets will spark another wave of early retirements, which will again starve employers of experienced talent. Not to mention it certainly looks like companies are cutting too aggressively. So this will flip on its head again, but probably too late for folks to stay solvent without a big life change like a move.

    • All these CEOs and board members work for multiple corporations. They can do this important work remotely and I can't?

  • Here's a thought: Learn to weld. Despite being a digital design engineer I can weld decently enough, dig with a backhoe and other manly man skills.
    • by rossdee ( 243626 )

      I am sure there is a relevant quote from Lazarus Long for that.

      • “A human being should be able to change a diaper, plan an invasion, butcher a hog, conn a ship, design a building, write a sonnet, balance accounts, build a wall, set a bone, comfort the dying, take orders, give orders, cooperate, act alone, solve equations, analyze a new problem, pitch manure, program a computer, cook a tasty meal, fight efficiently, die gallantly. Specialization is for insects.”

        From the Notebooks of Lazarus Long (RAH)

    • I'm an OK welder (pretty good at MIG, still learning on TIG), but this as much a throw-away as telling coal miners to "learn to code." The welding jobs that actually pay decent require a very high level of skill (just like highly-paid coding jobs require a high level of skill). But even the very best welders in the world have a much lower ceiling than a very good tech person. Your low-end welding job stick welding wrought iron fences pays barely above minimum wage. Welding pressurized containers for nuclear

  • by sdinfoserv ( 1793266 ) on Monday January 06, 2025 @12:37PM (#65066963)
    AI is being sold to C-levels as the golden ticket to slash staff by 20%-30%. Anything that doesn't require almost hands on work will get slashed. Increased productivity will be expected by those who retain their jobs through the use of AI to pick up the difference. For the gift of staying employed and increased productivity, you will not get a pay raise. Expect the lower stuff to no longer be a separate job, like HTML, simple scripts, automation, quality control.. gone. Creative disciplines will get hammered, writing, editing, content creation.. etc. This is capitalism at its finest.
    If you're in webdev, get out while you can. Tech disciplines I recommend for someone with experience and some level up include security (CISSP), project management (PMP), maybe network / infrastructure design (CCNA) , or sales. In sales, pick a product (an expensive one) you really like and are great at implementing/supporting and see if they're looking for sales executives. Sales engineers make decent money. The down side is you're tied to a product/company. yeppers... times are a changing.
  • by ZeroPly ( 881915 ) on Monday January 06, 2025 @12:38PM (#65066973)

    I know that y'all are very book-smart with your slide rules and mechanical mouses and whatnot, but I'm a businessman (I read Art of the Deal five dang times) so I'm going to put all of you at ease. Business is a completely different beast from whatever you do at the keyboard. And me and my buddies have a plan, so all you have to do is have some faith in modern economical theory.

    See, it's just like trickle-down economics, except with jobs. We're going to bring in a whole bunch of H-1B workers to do the technical jobs that Americans don't want to do, like slaving away in those hot rooms where all the servers are, and also building "databases" because my dashboard window thing says we need more. Then eventually we'll have so many jobs that there are not enough people in India and China to cover the positions, and there will be plenty of jobs for Americans.

    See? It's so simple. Hang tight, because my good buddy is going to be in charge very soon. I know what I'm doing. I can't give you my real name here, so just call me Adrian.

    • You're joking... and it's kinda funny, but actual [richmondfed.org] research [hbs.edu] on the question shows that on balance H-1Bs don't displace American workers, and often result in the hiring of more Americans because they enable the companies to grow more than competitors who don't hire H-1Bs.

      Worse, research [nber.org] also shows that if you restrict H-1Bs, American companies don't respond by hiring more Americans, they respond by offshoring the work, trying to build up mini-Silicon Valleys in other countries. The authors' hypothesis is t

  • This is a world issue. People who do not understand economy push for AI, sheep follow it like it is a God, then complain when the world starts falling apart. AI should be regulated. This is not the simple Chimney sweeper being replaced by a gas furnace, this is whole sectors of employees being lost to ignorance. Don't like what I said, you can pay my bills, I spent years going to school and have decades of experience. Just because something sounds good does not mean it is good in the long run.

  • by nealric ( 3647765 ) on Monday January 06, 2025 @03:45PM (#65067703)

    While the Fed has a "dual mandate" of keeping inflation in check and achieving full employment, its main policy tool is adjusting interest rates. Increasing interest rates hurts employment but reduces inflation. Since 2022, they've been raising interest rates to attack inflation, only easing slightly at the back half of 2024. It will take a while for any decreases to be felt in the economy. The Fed NEEDED it to become harder to find a job than it was in 2022 if inflation was going to come down. However, overall we are still at full employment by the Fed definition (and even the more expansive definitions of unemployment that include discouraged workers are at low levels historically). This economy has nothing on 2009 from an unemployment perspective.

    Given that this is Slashdot, many users are being hit worse than others because the layoffs seem to be concentrated in tech. I will say that both my spouse and I had very quick and easy job searches this year (non-tech/legal), so it really depends on your industry and job description. In fact, my job search was the easiest of my professional career. Dusted off my resume in August, applied to 5 jobs after Labor Day, did two full interviews in late September/Early October, had a good offer by mid-October. Spouse was even easier: called friend in the industry "are you hiring? -> Offer 3 days later.

  • by gabrieltss ( 64078 ) on Monday January 06, 2025 @03:57PM (#65067749)
    Musk and Trump want to EXPAND the H1-B visa program that is destroying a lot of these jobs for Americans. If anything the program should be scaled way the hell back!
    • The problem with H1B visas is that they allow employers to pay below market wages because they create conditions akin to indentured servitude. If H1B visa holders were more free to switch jobs, they'd have to pay closer to standard wages and it wouldn't be such a tempting program for employers.

  • by King_TJ ( 85913 ) on Monday January 06, 2025 @05:05PM (#65067973) Journal

    There might be truth to AI/ChatGPT related tech reducing the head-count in SOME cases, but I don't really believe that explains more than a small percentage of the unemployed tech workers out there right now.

    My experience has been, the tech field is a struggle right now mostly thanks to the cloud computing push. That's forced a big consolidation. For many of your small to mid-sized businesses out there? They don't even worry about trying to do local backups of their data anymore. They just let their cloud provider handle it for them (whether or not that's actually wise!). Even if all you're paying for is a specific application (such as the document management software my workplace uses), the company selling the application made sure the only cost-effective way forward to keep using it was to pay for the cloud-hosted edition, vs the version running on an in-house server or servers. They priced it so all the costly add-ons for the on-site version were thrown in for free with the cloud edition. Then, they give you a certain amount of storage in the cloud and promise they're backing it all up and can restore it for you, on demand, should you need them to. Fill it up and they'll just sell you more storage space.)

    This quickly leads to companies no longer maintaining a server room or physical servers, and no longer needing I.T. infrastructure people to take care of it, or even to ensure backups are running properly and can restore successfully.

    What's left is the need for "I.T. support" staff who can be less skilled and who they can pay far less for. They just want warm bodies answering the phones, email or chat support they offer employees, or doing basic computer set-ups at desks for new hires. At some point, they decide it's cheaper to swap out computers for new ones than to pay for techs with enough skills to really troubleshoot the workstation/laptop issues that come up.

    If you don't want to live and work where the "big guys" like AWS, Microsoft or Google have their data centers and staff, you're finding a dwindling number of I.T. positions open that compensate you fairly for your experience and knowledge. And even if you DO want to work there? Now there's this odd knowledge-gap in play, where you might have had many years of experience doing I.T. for smaller businesses, but you lack any experience with really large-scale application hosting or working in large data center environments. (EG. You might have been a guru at working with Microsoft Exchange Server, hosted on local servers at companies you worked for. But that's a completely different beast than today's Exchange Server everyone is connecting to with O365 today.)

    I've warned several younger people I know not to try to go into I.T. right now. The reality is, there's no clear path to long-term career success anymore, just because you got your foot in the door with an I.T. support role. Every place I can think of around me from the local cable company to automotive suppliers or corporate HQs for beverage distributors are only hiring I.T. support as contractors with no option to hire attached to it. It's all kind of a dead-end, in the sense working for one of them may allow you to learn a lot of new things, but you'll still only be qualified to apply to the next place looking for something similar, at a similar pay rate.

    Software developers probably have a different experience? But I think whether you want to do support/sysadmin work or coding work, it's still a situation where they're going to bring in the H1B labor where possible, and offer short term contracts otherwise.

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