A New Report Finds China's Space Program Will Soon Equal That of the US (arstechnica.com) 69
An anonymous reader quotes a report from Ars Technica: As Jonathan Roll neared completion of a master's degree in science and technology policy at Arizona State University three years ago, he did some research into recent developments by China's ascendant space program. He came away impressed by the country's growing ambitions. Now a full-time research analyst at the university, Roll was recently asked to take a deeper dive into Chinese space plans. "I thought I had a pretty good read on this when I was finishing grad school," Roll told Ars. "That almost everything needed to be updated, or had changed three years later, was pretty scary. On all these fronts, they've made pretty significant progress. They are taking all of the cues from our Western system about what's really galvanized innovation, and they are off to the races with it."
Roll is the co-author of a new report, titled "Redshift," on the acceleration of China's commercial and civil space activities and the threat these pose to similar efforts in the United States. Published on Tuesday, the report was sponsored by the US-based Commercial Space Federation, which advocates for the country's commercial space industry. It is a sobering read and comes as China not only projects to land humans on the lunar surface before the US can return, but also is advancing across several spaceflight fronts to challenge America. "The trend line is unmistakable," the report states. "China is not only racing to catch up -- it is setting pace, deregulating, and, at times, redefining what leadership looks like on and above Earth. This new space race will not be won with a single breakthrough or headline achievement, but with sustained commitment, clear-eyed vigilance, and a willingness to adapt over decades." "The key takeaway here is that there is an acceleration," said Dave Cavossa, president of the Commercial Spaceflight Federation. "The United States is still ahead today in a lot of areas in space. But the Chinese are advancing very quickly and poised to overtake us in the next five to 10 years if we don't do something."
"There's other things along the lines of budget battles," Cavossa said. "We don't want to see the US government scaling back its reliance on commercial satellite communications. We don't want to see them scaling back commercial remote sensing data buys, which is what they've been doing, or at least threatening to do. We want to make sure that there's a seamless transition from the ISS to commercial LEO destinations, and then a transition away from old programs of record to commercial transportation alternatives. That's what the US government can do and Congress can do here in the next couple of years to make sure that we stay ahead."
Roll is the co-author of a new report, titled "Redshift," on the acceleration of China's commercial and civil space activities and the threat these pose to similar efforts in the United States. Published on Tuesday, the report was sponsored by the US-based Commercial Space Federation, which advocates for the country's commercial space industry. It is a sobering read and comes as China not only projects to land humans on the lunar surface before the US can return, but also is advancing across several spaceflight fronts to challenge America. "The trend line is unmistakable," the report states. "China is not only racing to catch up -- it is setting pace, deregulating, and, at times, redefining what leadership looks like on and above Earth. This new space race will not be won with a single breakthrough or headline achievement, but with sustained commitment, clear-eyed vigilance, and a willingness to adapt over decades." "The key takeaway here is that there is an acceleration," said Dave Cavossa, president of the Commercial Spaceflight Federation. "The United States is still ahead today in a lot of areas in space. But the Chinese are advancing very quickly and poised to overtake us in the next five to 10 years if we don't do something."
"There's other things along the lines of budget battles," Cavossa said. "We don't want to see the US government scaling back its reliance on commercial satellite communications. We don't want to see them scaling back commercial remote sensing data buys, which is what they've been doing, or at least threatening to do. We want to make sure that there's a seamless transition from the ISS to commercial LEO destinations, and then a transition away from old programs of record to commercial transportation alternatives. That's what the US government can do and Congress can do here in the next couple of years to make sure that we stay ahead."
Ok, but... (Score:1, Informative)
Well sure, but which country has more mass shootings in schools? Checkmate, Gandhi!
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https://www.bbc.com/news/artic... [bbc.com]
https://gulfnews.com/world/asi... [gulfnews.com]
https://www.npr.org/2024/11/20... [npr.org]
Re:Ok, but... (Score:5, Informative)
You're going to have to clarify which country. https://www.yahoo.com/news/art... [yahoo.com]
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No, you do not.
USA *deserves* the kick to the ego. (Score:5, Insightful)
We collectively got over-focused on deporting gardeners and letting brain-worms set child vaccination policy.
Re:USA *deserves* the kick to the ego. (Score:4, Insightful)
Re:USA *deserves* the kick to the ego. (Score:4, Insightful)
Yes. China is trying to build a Falcon-9 competitor while SpaceX is working to make Falcon-9 obsolete.
Based on the summary this seems to be comparing government-funded space programs while ignoring the commercial space programs. A single Starship, for example, apparently has a similar internal volume to the entire ISS, though obviously it would shrink once you added life support and other hardware required for people to live on board for long periods.
But still, dock four Starships to a central module providing power and other requirements for long-term habitation and you have something with far more volume than ISS for probably a fraction of the cost of a single ISS module when it was launched twenty or thirty years ago.
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The ISS was a mistake from the beginning. Well, the original concept was likely fine then the politics got in the way of implementation.
The intent of the ISS was to be a solely American project that was to be placed in an orbit useful as an "orbital rest stop" or "orbital filling station" for places beyond Earth orbit. Then some senators or something got a bit spooked about the budget, other senators wanted to include the Soviets in this to kind of put the space race to an end with cooperation than compet
Re:USA *deserves* the kick to the ego. (Score:4, Interesting)
Disagree. ISS was not a mistake. Plans change, we adapt.
It might be reaching the end of its useful life as things do. What's the cost vs benefit?
We've learnt a lot from ISS. It hosted the longest human habitation in space, that's useful for a mars shot. I expect we can learn more from it too. If you want to build another station I assume the builders would find it easier with somewhere nearby to live ...
You are repeating Elon's call for the ISS shutdown. I suspect he sees it as an opportunity to free up funds for his Mars project, a private SpaceX project not a US one. Elon could go to China for funds too, he has factories there already.
I believe in his goal, but he is very single minded and I wonder what he wouldn't do to achieve it? His principal funder, the US is going broke, so he gets involved in politics to clear the debt. He supports the far right as a counter to the left that likes expensive things like welfare and feeding people, money he could use for rockets.
ISS is "International" it shows science can cooperate to some degree independent of states, idiocrasy politics and corporate psychos. It's an important symbol of collective human endeavour vs. chimp brain tribalism. It's Star Trek Federation type stuff !
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We've learnt a lot from ISS.
I didn't claim the ISS had no value, only that the value was greatly diminished by putting it in a orbit to accommodate the Soviets. What was supposed to be a a kind of roadside oasis to the moon and Mars became an expensive orbital science experiment. A space station in most any orbit would be useful for testing so much about long term human habitation in space, we'd get that and an oasis to deep space if it were on the originally intended orbit.
What's the cost vs benefit?
That is a good question. How much value was added with the
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A single Starship, for example, apparently has a similar internal volume to the entire ISS
Any system that is still in testing doesn't count. Otherwise you're comparing who makes the best press releases and can lie with a straight face. I mean, according to Elon's own estimates, the first SpaceX rocket should've landed on Mars in 2018, and the first human in 2024. In reality, Starship hasn't even reached LEO.
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There are Chinese companies working on vehicles with similar characteristics to Starship. But of course Starship doesn't work yet and is a long way from being able to do what Musk promised.
You are also cherry picking. Take getting back to the moon. In theory Starship will do it, but will it do it before the Chinese get there with their more conventional, proven rocket technology? The odds are at best 50/50, probably worse for SpaceX. They have more challenges to overcome.
Same with Mars sample return mission
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Remind me again of what their cost to launch stuff is again, because it isn't anywhere near the predicted price. Keep making stuff up though, I mean it's great. In case you haven't figured it out, the reason he doesn't want to go back to the moon and instead head straight to Mars is because he's looking to kick the Starship can down the road.
I get it, he's tryi
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Yes. China is trying to build a Falcon-9 competitor while SpaceX is working to make Falcon-9 obsolete.
And China will succeed and advance steadily further.
Re: USA *deserves* the kick to the ego. (Score:2)
Yes, of course the reason the US space program is struggling is because it's actually enforcing the law re illegals, not because the previous administration tried to import millions of future voters.
And of course it has to do with the current president, not the decade+ previous administration(s) where the STATED primary mission of our space program was "Muslim outreach" and lately diversity*. Not to mention the $billions wasted (and nigh-hilariously) /failing/ to replicate a launch vehicle design that's es
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Yes, of course the reason the US space program is struggling is because it's actually enforcing the law re illegals,
You honestly can't talk about this administration enforcing laws while also constantly breaking them.
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'constantly'
I do not think that word means what you think it means.
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Here’s a handy list. https://www.justsecurity.org/1... [justsecurity.org]
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From that site:
Case Closed in Favor of Plaintiff: 0
Blocked: 28
Temporarily Blocked: 82
Blocked Pending Appeal: 19
Temporarily Blocked in Part; Temporary Block Denied in Part: 10
Temporary Block Denied: 38
Not Blocked Pending Appeal: 33
Awaiting Court Ruling: 162
Case Closed: 23
Misc: Transferred: 2
Case Closed/Dismissed in Favor of Government: 7
And:
Note-1: We do not track cases in which the Trump administration is the plaintiff/files a civil lawsuit. Some other organizations include those cases in their litigation t
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Here's an article from Politico just last night: "Former GOP officials fear US strikes on alleged drug smugglers aren't legal"
The Trump administration is facing growing calls from former government officials — including some in Republican administrations — to offer a legal justification for President Donald Trump’s two missile strikes this month on boats allegedly piloted by members of a Venezuelan drug cartel.
Another Politico headline: "In new lawsuit, fired FBI leaders allege rampant politicization by Trump allies":
A former acting FBI director is accusing Director Kash Patel and other allies of President Donald Trump of orchestrating a politically motivated purge of the bureau’s leadership, seeking to punish officials who worked on Trump’s criminal investigations and submitting to White House pressure to gut the bureau’s workforce.
From The Detroit News:
President Donald Trump's readiness to accept a luxury jet as a gift from the ruling family of Qatar for conversion into a presidential aircraft has revived the conversations around emoluments and the notion of a president otherwise allegedly profiting off of the office....
But there are constitutional prohibitions against the president receiving gifts from foreign entities or even domestic ones. It's a conversation over emoluments, territory that Trump has been forced to navigate, and litigate, in the past.
From TokenPost:
U.S. consumer advocacy group Public Citizen has urged the Department of Justice (DOJ) and the Office of Government Ethics (OGE) to investigate whether President Donald Trump's official memecoin, TRUMP, violates federal laws prohibiting the solicitation of gifts.
From The Hollywood Reporter: "Judge Rules Trump’s Use of National Guard During L.A. Immigration Protests Is Illegal"
From PBS: "Judge blocks Trump’s executive order to dismantle Education Department"
In their lawsuit, the groups said the layoffs amounted to an illegal shutdown of the Education Department. They said it left the department unable to carry out responsibilities required by Congress, including duties to support special education, distribute financial aid and enforce civil rights laws.
This is just the stuff off the
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"Former GOP officials fear US strikes on alleged drug smugglers aren't legal"
Alas, as many do, you seem to gravitate to reporting that conflates membership in the GOP with some alignment with Trump. Mostly it is, but the GOP , especially the leadership, is not united behind Trump, and should not be expected to.
Media reports are, for me, suspect.
From Congress.gov [congress.gov], interesting notes:
"In the United States primary responsibility for establishing policy and providing funding for elementary and secondary educatio
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That being said, move fast and break stuff has failed hard enough that in the 1970's or 1980's if the SpaceX program engineers had worked for NASA they would've been frog marched to a congressional oversight committee hearing to e
Not just vaccination (Score:5, Interesting)
While I am from the UK, I do read a variety of publications from the US and the rest of the world.
It would seem that there is a general anti-science movement in place in the US that is becoming stronger, vaccinations is one part of it, attacks on climate science is another. Couple that with the onslaught on education, and universities in particular, and all I can see is a gradual decline in the ability of the US to compete when it comes to science.
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The group of proudly ignorant people have grown in size, but they are still a tiny minority. Only approximately 3.5% of US children are unvaccinated.
As for universities, their biggest problem is declining enrollment due to demographics. There's also Trump's anti-immigrant policies blocking foreign students, who are cash cows for the universities. But those policies are very likely to be reversed in 3.5 years.
all I can see is a gradual decline in the ability of the US to compete when it comes to science.
Basic science for sure. Applied science is still mostly funded by private businesses, so we probably
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As if major private universities in the United States need even more money. They're loaded. So are many state university systems.
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The group of proudly ignorant people have grown in size, but they are still a tiny minority.
Worth mentioning that the tiny minority has gotten a lot more noisy lately (approximately from when smartphones became common. Another Eternal September, etc).
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The group of proudly ignorant people have grown in size, but they are still a tiny minority. Only approximately 3.5% of US children are unvaccinated.
Not for long. https://apnews.com/article/flo... [apnews.com]
Fast forward a few years and the headlines read Democrats blamed for Mumps and Polio outbreaks
Re:Not just vaccination (Score:4, Insightful)
The US is simply following the path of other great civilizations, from the Islamic to Catholicism. Both were at the top of what we call STEM today - both excelled at mathematics and science and were the leaders in both.
Of course, you probably wouldn't associate either with the forefront of science and mathematics today, and the wonder was always how did they go from the leaders to where they are now.
The US might simply be the canary in the coal mine of where western civilization will lead and end up following Islam and Catholicism.
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One of these things is not like the other. One of these things is not the same!
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And a media apparatus which creates propagandized drones like yourself.
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Projection.
Note that while Trump want's to go Mars, US is pulling the plug on most planned robotic missions.
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What is this 'we' shit?
Why does it matter? (Score:5, Insightful)
The US doesn't need constructive things. That's socialism which is bad. Instead, the US can hire a few million children to swing around guns and pick fights. China just teaches their kids how to mass produce drone swarms so they don't have to give their babies guns.
Hopefully for the US China will play nice and try to look scary so the US can hire more children and teach them to swing around guns.
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They could be sending weapon systems into space and/or making plans to knock out satellites owned by other countries.
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China just teaches their kids how to mass produce drone swarms so they don't have to give their babies guns.
This is just modernisation. Drones are now a more important war fighting tool than guns.
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Well, yeah (Score:3, Funny)
China's got dibs on Mars. (Score:3)
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Wait a minute... (Score:1, Redundant)
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that's obviously a terrible measure, as we decided it wasn't worth going back to
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The United States returned to the moon several times after that. Eventually interest in making the trip faded.
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Flags are candy coloured cloth.
I think your countryman said, "One giant step for mankind."
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Whose flag is still on the moon?
And the pyramids still stand today. How important would you say Egypt is in the world?
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A white one, which means surrender.
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I agree. Your capitalist oligarchy outsourced production to China and placated you with cheap shit. It's good business, but a poor national strategy.
by what measure? (Score:2)
Because it's not by mass in orbit, and that's all that matters
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You are the poor. Muppet !
Diversion (Score:2)
A diversion for China (Score:1)
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You're boring, loser. I understand you believe only white male Americans can come up with stuff, and the Chinese (or anyone else) can't possibly innovate and do research.
Wrong answer.
It's fine (Score:2)
Related video (Score:2)
Ross Douthat recently had an interview with Breakneck author Dan Wang about China's accelerating pace of technological innovation:
https://youtu.be/ZNK3vNg13XA [youtu.be]