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Transportation United States Technology

Tesla Model 3 Outselling Small, Midsize Luxury Cars In US (forbes.com) 375

WindBourne shares a report from Forbes: In the second quarter of 2018, Tesla produced just over 53,000 vehicles, doubling its output compared to the same quarter last year. For the first time, Model 3 production (28,578) exceeded combined Model S and X production (24,761) with deliveries to customers totaling 40,740 for the quarter. The ramp up in Model 3 production is enabling it to outsell small and midsize luxury car sales in the U.S., according to some number crunching by CleanTechnica's Zachary Shahan.

His analysis claims that the Model 3 is crushing its "competitors" in that segment with total estimated sales for July amounting to 16,000 vehicles. The closest individual model to Tesla's mass-market endeavor is the Mercedes C-Class and even then, its July sales are estimated at just 6,029 units. The Model 3 is still untouchable when sales figures from multiple vehicles produced by the same company are added together. For example, the analysis expects sales of the BMW 2, 3, 4 and 5 Series to hit 12,811 at the end of July in total while customers will get their hands on 11,835 Mercedes C, CLA, CLS and E-Class models. That all means that Tesla would have a 23% share of the small and midsize luxury car market in July, ahead of BMW's 17% and Mercedes' 17%.

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Tesla Model 3 Outselling Small, Midsize Luxury Cars In US

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  • But are they outselling gas guzzling trucks and SUV's?
    • Living in south Texas I'd have to say no.....not by a long shot. There are like 3 pickups for ever 1 SUV and 3 SUVs for every car on the road. And like 1/4 of the car are Mustangs. sigh.
    • Every day Ford sells an average of 2,452 F-Series trucks...

      http://autoweek.com/article/tr... [autoweek.com]

      • yeah, Tesla's production is not up there enough for that, but, in either 2019 or 2020, Tesla is supposed to have their truck out. I think it will be interesting to see how well they do at that.
        • They still won't have cleared their model 3 backlog by then, so good luck with that.

        • by haruchai ( 17472 )

          "but, in either 2019 or 2020, Tesla is supposed to have their truck out."
          And I think you meant Model Y, not the Tesla Truck - or did you mean Tesla Semi?
          If Musk & Straubel are telling the truth they'll still be struggling to meet demand for the S3X mobiles, they'll need a place to build the Semi and they'll still be trying to make enough battery cells for Model 3, PowerPacks and PowerWalls

          • by Rei ( 128717 )

            I assumed he was talking about the pickup, which comes out after Model Y. But that won't be in 2019 or 2020. 2021 at the earliest.

            In some ways, pickup trucks are awesome targets for an EV manufacturer like Tesla. They can produce bonkers amounts of torque. They have a low CG to resist tipping with awkward loads. They can (and Tesla plans to) put high-power AC sockets on the vehicle so you can use your truck in place of a generator on a worksite. Their air suspension will self-level loads, and they're talkin

      • Re:Trucks? (Score:5, Insightful)

        by Bruce Perens ( 3872 ) <bruce@perens.com> on Monday July 30, 2018 @11:05PM (#57038472) Homepage Journal

        Every day Ford sells an average of 2,452 F-Series trucks...

        And in 1907 more people bought horse carriages than all automobiles combined, and the city streets were full of manure rather than the air being full of pollution. Change happens.

        • So the air went from being smelly to causing cancer?

          • Re:Trucks? (Score:4, Interesting)

            by swillden ( 191260 ) <shawn-ds@willden.org> on Tuesday July 31, 2018 @12:11AM (#57038774) Journal

            So the air went from being smelly to causing cancer?

            From being a vector of immediate disease affecting all ages to being a vector of delayed disease affecting primarily the elderly, yes.

            http://www.banhdc.org/archives/ch-hist-19711000.html [banhdc.org]

            • THIS, plus air in concentrated urban settlements had been a bigger culprit for causing cancer and all sorts of ailments, in a magnitude not comparable in modern western world, almost since towns and cities started. Air quality was worse by so many magnitudes that automobiles that came with technology advancement should probably more regarded as an air improvement good, back in the old days.

              Ancient people just happened not to have discovered cancer or properly documented many ailments from burning of wood

            • do not forget that from the 40s through the mid 70s, a LOT of lead was released into the air harming our kids.
    • Toyota sold 180,000 Camry the first half of 2018
  • That's what counts (Score:5, Insightful)

    by AlanObject ( 3603453 ) on Monday July 30, 2018 @09:48PM (#57038014)

    I suppose we can expect more muskisdelusionalandoutofcash postings.

    In the last Tesla thread I pointed out that, as an stockholder, what I am looking for is NOT Elon Musk's cute personality or science fantasy. Nor do I care to whig out at every little story of production problems. What I am looking for is:

    Technological leadership.

    Market presence.

    Production leadership.

    Most of all: backorders and strong forecast. None of the rest matters unless you have someone willing to buy it. Tesla has that in spades.

    So Tesla is delivering. Skepticism is healthy but not to the extent that the Tesla naysayers on /. take it.

    • by Okian Warrior ( 537106 ) on Monday July 30, 2018 @10:44PM (#57038348) Homepage Journal

      I suppose we can expect more muskisdelusionalandoutofcash postings.

      In the last Tesla thread I pointed out that, as an stockholder, what I am looking for is NOT Elon Musk's cute personality or science fantasy. Nor do I care to whig out at every little story of production problems. What I am looking for is:

      Technological leadership.

      Market presence.

      Production leadership.

      Most of all: backorders and strong forecast. None of the rest matters unless you have someone willing to buy it. Tesla has that in spades.

      So Tesla is delivering. Skepticism is healthy but not to the extent that the Tesla naysayers on /. take it.

      There are a lot of people sending out fake news about Tesla nowadays, but there's an interesting bit of information.

      Normally, in the two weeks ahead of a financial report the stock will mirror the report outcome. If the report is good, the stock will rise a little just before the announcement. If the report is bad, the stock will drop a little.

      Tesla will be making their Q2 announcement on Wednesday (after the market closes), and it's dropped by 10% in that time.

      In any other stock that would indicate bad news, but for Tesla? It could indicate a last-ditch effort for the bears to drive the stock down before a "good news" report. People are changing Tesla from "hold" to "sell", and saying that they're certain Tesla will need another round of financing.

      (Musk claims that they will not need another round, and that Tesla will be profitable in Q3 and Q4 of this year.)

      Tesla short interest is 34m shares right now [nasdaq.com], and with 170m shares outstanding, that's about 20% of Tesla is being shorted right now. 25% is held by Musk, so that's about 1/4 of public shares are held short.

      There are three key periods coming up for Tesla: the Q2 report (Wednesday), and Q3 and Q4 of this year.

      Over 50% of Tesla shares are held by 5 entities: Musk, Fidelity, Baillie Gifford, and so on. If the institutions dig their heels into the sand and refuse to sell, and if the other public shareholders also refuse to sell, there will be a short run and the stock price will skyrocket. There's nowhere that the short sellers can go [thebalance.com] to settle.

      If no one is selling the stock, or there are many buyers, including panic buyers, caused by other short sellers attempting to close out their positions as they lose more and more money, you may be in a position to incur serious losses.

      The institutions know this. Many of the public shareholders know this.

      If the stock jumps up and Tesla seems reasonably solvent, it's estimated the short sellers will be out several tens of billions of dollars.

      Expect a lot of wailing and gnashing of teeth...

      (I own shares in Tesla and want to see them succeed.)

      • Are you sure about that? I've never seen the effect of "stock mirroring profit report before it's released." From my perspective, the way the stock trades before the release is rather random. (I am not a Tesla stock holder but I want to see them succeed: electric cars replacing ICE will be good for the world in many ways)
    • What I am looking for is: Technological leadership. Market presence. Production leadership. Most of all: backorders and strong forecast.

      I notice that you didn't list 'Making a Profit' in your list.

  • Of course... (Score:5, Interesting)

    by taiwanjohn ( 103839 ) on Monday July 30, 2018 @09:54PM (#57038058)

    All this depends on Tesla being able to get the damn things produced and delivered to customers. The Model 3 production ramp up has been much slower than Elon predicted, but it is steadily improving, even as TSLA stock takes a beating (mostly due to Elon's regrettable antics on social media). Ironically, Elon's bold claims are probably more to blame than Tesla's actual performance. In any other context, a 100% increase in production in one year would be seen as quite strong, but because they keep failing to meet Elon's projections, they keep getting criticized by analysts.

    Ultimately, I think they will get over this hump, but "production hell" is going to continue for a good while yet. Ramping up to high-volume production of automobiles is a unique challenge for Elon, and building a production line in tents has an unpleasant aroma of desperation.

  • Cars don't even matter any more. Ford stopped selling all but two of them.
    • Next time there's a gas crisis, Ford will be looking for their bailout.

    • Ford doesn't need to. They can't build trucks fast enough and have jacked prices way up.

      • yes, no doubt ford has jacked up prices. So, while Tesla works hard to bring their prices down while still keeping 30+% profit margins, others car makers are having to raise their prices and still do not have those kinds of margins.
  • Now what, shorts? (Score:3, Insightful)

    by bill_mcgonigle ( 4333 ) * on Monday July 30, 2018 @10:08PM (#57038140) Homepage Journal

    Time to get your media buddies to make up some #metoo fake news about Elon before your positions are called.

    Or maybe just flee to Thailand before the inevitable happens.

  • It is not outselling they are fulfilling long standing orders. Not the same.
  • by Zobeid ( 314469 ) on Monday July 30, 2018 @11:40PM (#57038644)

    I've seen this theory going around, that other car makers--the big boys, established companies that have been in business for decades--are just waiting until Tesla has done all the expensive R&D for them and primed the market, then they're all going to pile in with their own electric cars and crush poor, naive Tesla.

    Good luck with that. So far I haven't seen any indication that any established car makers have the ability to mass-produce a desirable (in particular, long-range) electric car and sell it at a profit, and I haven't seen any indication that any of them are ramping up for an attempt to do so. A recent poll of auto executives found a solid majority of them still expect battery-electric cars to fail in the marketplace, and quite a few of them still think hydrogen fuel cells are the future. Are these the guys who are going to green-light EV production on a massive scale?

    The latest "Tesla killer" to get a lot of buzz was the Jaguar I-Pace. They flew a bunch of reporters out to Portugal to show it off, and the machine seems to have impressed many of them. But how many do Jaguar plan to make? How many are they even able to make? The latest numbers I've seen suggest that Tesla are now out-producing Jaguar. I don't mean they're making more electric cars than Jaguar; I mean they're making more cars that Jaguar's total automotive output.

    • by AmiMoJo ( 196126 )

      Other car makers are selling some great EVs too. The Hyundai Kona is the first affordable, long range model, for example. It's got autopilot, 300 mile range, decent performance etc. Costs $20,000 less than a Model 3 equivalent and is available to buy. Unlimited battery warranty too.

      Nissan really screwed up with the latest revision of the Leaf, but the one due later this year might allow them to recover. Should have a similar range to the Kona.

      Kia has the Niro due early next year, should be a little lower ra

    • by ledow ( 319597 )

      I don't think it's a theory.

      The large car manufacturers are pushing out orders-of-magnitude more cars than Tesla will be able to manage for at least a decade, even with their fantasy growth. They can take the entire market any time they like - how much advertising do they put to that market? Zero. It's just not worth their time at the moment.

      But they have R&D and investment and cash-on-hand that Tesla can only dream of, and they can flood the market with a dozen models each in a year or so if they re

    • Yes, it seems Jaguar underestimated how well the I-Pace would do. there are reports of 9-12 months waiting lists
  • by BBF_BBF ( 812493 ) on Tuesday July 31, 2018 @04:08AM (#57039562)
    Definitely very impressive numbers.

    It took a lot of hard work by many many people to get to this point. Definitely a HUGE achievement by all the workers at Tesla.

    However, one winning quarter cannot be always extrapolated per dot-com-boom hockey stick exponential estimates.

    If Tesla can keep these sales percentage numbers this high indefinitely, then they're definitely worth what they're valued at today.

    So far Tesla is roughly following the same pattern as as Space-X. One successful landing of a first stage was a HUGE accomplishment, but is not as disruptive as SEVERAL successful landings in a row... Space-X has now accomplished multiple successful launches of reused first stages and is NO DOUBT leading the even the established conglomerates with reliable, low cost launch vehicles. Tesla is not at that stage yet, and it is not 100% certain that it will dominate, but it certainly has a chance, much better today than x months ago which is itself a great achievement.

Byte your tongue.

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