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Earth Science

Summers Could Last Half the Year By the End of this Century (nbcnews.com) 143

Posted by msmash from the shape-of-things-to-come dept.
Summers in the Northern Hemisphere could last nearly six months by the year 2100 if global warming continues unchecked, according to a recent study that examined how climate change is affecting the pattern and duration of Earth's seasons. From a report: The study, published last month in the journal Geophysical Research Letters, found that climate change is making summers hotter and longer, while shrinking the three other seasons. Scientists say the irregularities could have a range of serious implications, affecting human health and agriculture to the environment. "This is the biological clock for every living thing," said the study's lead author, Yuping Guan, a physical oceanographer at the State Key Laboratory of Tropical Oceanography at the Chinese Academy of Sciences. "People argue about temperature rise of 2 degrees or 3 degrees, but global warming changing the seasons is something everyone can understand."

Guan and his colleagues combed through daily climate data from 1952 to 2011 to pinpoint the start and end of each season in the Northern Hemisphere. They found that over the nearly 60-year period, summers grew from an average of 78 to 95 days long. Winters, on average, shortened from 76 to 73 days, and the spring and autumn seasons similarly contracted. On average, the spring seasons shrank from 124 days to 115 days, and autumns shortened from 87 days to 82 days. The scientists used the findings to build a model to project how the seasons might change in the future. They discovered that if the pace of climate change continues unmitigated, summers in the Northern Hemisphere could last nearly six months, while winters could span less than two months.
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Summers Could Last Half the Year By the End of this Century More

Summers Could Last Half the Year By the End of this Century

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  • Supertoys last all summer long.

  • Blame Arizona for short winters (Score:4, Funny)

    by knarfling ( 735361 ) on Monday March 22, 2021 @07:48PM (#61187352) Journal

    You can blame Arizona for short winters. This year it was on a Monday.

  • Good? (Score:1)

    by Anonymous Coward
    I live in Canada. This could really help improve our suicide rate.

    • Re: (Score:2, Informative)

      by Anonymous Coward

      I live in Canada. This could really help improve our suicide rate.

      Yeah, with the summers becoming longer I'd probably be more inclined to off myself too. I like the risk of falling into ice fishing holes, you insensitive clod!

    • Re:Good? (Score:5, Insightful)

      by mrsquid0 ( 1335303 ) on Monday March 22, 2021 @07:57PM (#61187386) Homepage

      The number of daylight hours won't change

    • Where I live, winters are half the year. This sounds like a dream come true. I'm going to go drive my internal combustion car around the block a few times to celebrate... you're welcome.

    • Re:Good? (Score:5, Funny)

      by couchslug ( 175151 ) on Monday March 22, 2021 @08:03PM (#61187404)

      Fear not, my oppressed northern neighbor!

      Once Canuckistan becomes habitable we shall liberate our Northern Corporate Appendage, Freeâ you and our corporations (in cooperation with the World Bank to ensure it's carried out in an ethical manner) will use your resources for Nation Building© that ye may have a stress-free life just like our own.

      With your resources and American culture there's no limit to what we can accomplish. Sleep well!

    • Re: (Score:2)

      by ghoul ( 157158 )
      Thats bad for Gaia. Overpopulation and what all you know. Save Gaia. Abolish gun control in Canada.

  • Less cold, less snow and ice, a reasonable growing season! And can easily be outdoors most of the year! Won't be alive to enjoy it though, personally.

    • Re:Hooray! (Score:4, Informative)

      by iggymanz ( 596061 ) on Monday March 22, 2021 @08:00PM (#61187392)

      Actually, the reason the soil is so fertile to grow the high energy containing grains in the regions that have cold winters is because the cold stops the bacteria in the soil. Without that cold organic matter would be broken down and washed away into the water table, and the soil would be depleted.

      • We should be growing our food in hydroponic farms anyway.

        The long game is interplanetary colonization, and that will require biodomes. We must break free of the tyranny of the seasons if our species is to survive!

        • Re: (Score:3, Interesting)

          by Ostracus ( 1354233 )

          You don't see the irony in expecting us to have the will to accomplish interplanetary colonization but not the will towards fixing our environment.

        • Re:That's fine. (Score:4, Informative)

          by iggymanz ( 596061 ) on Monday March 22, 2021 @10:46PM (#61187756)

          The largest hydroponic farm in the world is being built, 130K square feet claimed to produce the same as 900 acres (1.4 square miles). It will cost $40M. Can you see the problem here? You can buy farmland in one of the two places with the most fertile soil in the world downstate of me for $7K an acre. That 900 acres would be $6.3M. It's dirt cheap to farm... in dirt.

          • The largest hydroponic farm in the world is being built, 130K square feet claimed to produce the same as 900 acres (1.4 square miles). It will cost $40M. Can you see the problem here?

            The fact that you're mixing your units of area so that I have no idea if that's smaller or bigger than the real thing?

            • Re: (Score:2)

              by RevDisk ( 740008 )
              Hydroponics cost for the specified example is $444,444 per equivalent functional acre of dirt farmland.

              The US has 900 million acres of functional dirt, bog, etc farm land. Theoretically, that would work out to $400 trillion dollars to convert from dirt farming to hydroponics. That's very high. I'd realistically put US farm land that is more actively worked at say 600 million. And let's assume costs drop by 50% due to scaling, which I think is aggressive but possible.

              That comes in at a more realistic $

        • Re: (Score:2)

          by RevDisk ( 740008 )
          I'm guessing you're not familiar with farming if you think your food should be grown in hydroponic farms.

          How exactly do you plan on setting up just shy of a billion acres of hydroponic farms? Let's say hydroponics is MUCH more efficient. How exactly are you going to setup half a billion, or even a quarter of a billion acres? In just the US. World total is around 4.5 billion acres.

          That efficiency gain? It's not free. You'd have to toss trillions of dollars of ag equipment out the window and replace it

    • Cold for killing off a large amount of insects. Hope you all enjoy buying bug spray by the case.

    • You'll have droughts. Forget growing season, baring a miracle there'll be wars for water. Food riots.

      Also extreme weather. When you're not having droughts you'll have floods, hurricanes, etc. The growing season will be cut short by extreme weather.

      But hey, like you said, you won't be alive to see it, right?

      • You'll have droughts. Forget growing season, baring a miracle there'll be wars for water. Food riots.

        That's what Al Gore told us right? When exactly does this happen, because I've been waiting a while now.

        Also extreme weather. When you're not having droughts you'll have floods, hurricanes, etc. The growing season will be cut short by extreme weather.

        It'll be all bad all the time, just like Al Gore said...yet when I go outside it looks fine. Could you tell us when this apocalypse is due?

  • Based on my calendar (Score:2, Informative)

    by magzteel ( 5013587 )

    Based on my calendar the number of days in the 4 seasons is the same as it always has been,

    • This. Seasons are a defined by the tilt and orbit of the planet, not the temperature. It doesn't matter if Gnome, Alaska is 95 degrees on Christmas, that doesn't make it Summer.

      • So, intentionally dumb? (Score:5, Informative)

        by Actually, I do RTFA ( 1058596 ) on Monday March 22, 2021 @11:40PM (#61187860)

        Yes, summer has several meanings. One (astronomical) is defined by equinoxes and solstices. Interestingly, there are two variants of astronomical summer, depending on the field you are using - in some cases the summer solstice is the first day of summer and in others it is the midpoint of summer. However, it is irrelevant in this case because another summer (meteorological) is defined by average temperature conditions. Since only one of these definitions makes sense for a "longer summer" (and since we're talking about climate change) we obviously are discussing meteorological summer.

        One reason it's hard to have computers process natural language is that it has ambiguity we expect the human brain to handle. Use your brain and you'll find it far easier to understand what people are saying.

        • "One reason it's hard to have computers process natural language is that it has ambiguity we expect the human brain to handle."

          To be fair, even the OP didn't understand the ambiguity. Unless you are suggesting that the OP isn't processing language with a human brain? ;-)

  • "With enough time and enough money, you could spend the rest of your life following summer around the world." - The Endless Summer

  • Summer? Or is it getting warmer? (Score:3, Informative)

    by thegarbz ( 1787294 ) on Monday March 22, 2021 @07:55PM (#61187378)

    I mean you could claim temperatures would get warmer on average, but I don't think global warming has any effect on the solstice or equinox.

  • Cool (Score:1)

    by Anonymous Coward

    Does this mean we can quit setting our clocks back in the fall?

  • For all those checking their calendars (Score:4, Informative)

    by bug_hunter ( 32923 ) on Monday March 22, 2021 @08:07PM (#61187418)

    >> In their study, Guan and his colleagues measured the start of summer based on the onset of temperatures in the hottest 25 percent during that time period. Winter was defined as the onset of temperatures in the coldest 25 percent, they said.

    So yeah, your calendar wont change, but summer and winter like weather patterns will. Likely plant and animal life that survive will also exhibit the same behaviours they do during the classical summer longer too.

    • Great, more 'scientists' redefining already standardized defined words and meanings.
      Ya know, if those Fahrenheit people would start using Celsius, the temperatures would be lower and this would eliminate global warming! /s

  • I can imagine a lot of people would actually welcome longer summers.

    • We already have summer weather lasting 8+ months where I live. Have had it for the last couple centuries.

      And no, I don't like it. 35C and 90% humidity for 8+ months a year isn't nearly as much fun as you might think....

  • Stupid Title (Score:4, Insightful)

    by dcw3 ( 649211 ) on Monday March 22, 2021 @08:20PM (#61187450) Journal

    No, Summer won't last longer. It will still be exactly the same number of days as it always has. Temperature doesn't determine when or how long Summer is. Yes, we all know what they meant, but were too lazy to say correctly.

    • Exactly. Summer (astronomical) is the period from the summer equinox to the autumnal equinox.

      • So ... that means it isn't the exact same number of days every year.

        It varies by a couple of days. [timeanddate.com]

        • Technically, it really only varies by about half a minute each year.

          Summer is a period between two instantaneous moments, and is (currently) 93.66 days long. Even if it is measured by rounding these instantaneous moments onto whole-day boundaries it only varies by a day or two, by including some of spring/autumn or ignoring part of summer in the measurement.

          The article was implying that summer would last half the year (over 180 days), when really it is always close to 93.6 days (plus or minus 0.2 days).

    • No, Summer won't last longer. It will still be exactly the same number of days as it always has. Temperature doesn't determine when or how long Summer is. Yes, we all know what they meant, but were too lazy to say correctly.

      When does Spring start, on March 20th or when temperatures rise above freezing and the snow is quickly melting?

      Just because you decided to be a specific kind of pedantic doesn't mean everyone else needs to go along with you. The concept of marking seasons based on weather instead of the calendar is well established and completely intuitive to most people.

      • Re: (Score:2)

        by dcw3 ( 649211 )

        Just because you decided not to go along with the rest of the planet, I'm going to correct you. Seasons are still the same number of days, no matter how you do the reckoning. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/... [wikipedia.org]

      • Just because you decided to be a specific kind of pedantic

        No, he was being correct. You are being a troll.

        When does Spring start, on March 20th or when temperatures rise above freezing and the snow is quickly melting?

        Spring starts on the Spring Equinox, regardless of when temperatures rise above freezing. I know this because I live in a place where it rarely falls below freezing and it hasn't snowed since the 70s. Just because you decided to be a specific kind of self-centered and base the seasons on events local to you doesn't make him wrong but does make you an asshole.

        • When does Spring start, on March 20th or when temperatures rise above freezing and the snow is quickly melting?

          Spring starts on the Spring Equinox, regardless of when temperatures rise above freezing. I know this because I live in a place where it rarely falls below freezing and it hasn't snowed since the 70s. Just because you decided to be a specific kind of self-centered and base the seasons on events local to you doesn't make him wrong but does make you an asshole.

          So because you live in a place without well defined seasons no one elses experiences matter?

          I live in a place with actual seasons, and I can tell you that most people don't really give a damn about March 20th. Spring arrives when the snow starts melting. Winter starts when the snow falls and stays.

          There's are the definitions of Seasons that people here care about and they're the kinds definitions the researcher was addressing.

          Acting like the researcher had never heard of the calendar definition of the seaso

          • So because you live in a place without well defined seasons no one elses experiences matter?

            Your hypocrisy is amusing. He literally acted as if no one else's experiences matter.

            Seasons are well defined everyone. Spring begins on the spring equinox. Summer begins on the summer solstice. Autumn begins on the autumnal equinox. Winter begins on the winter solstice. People's experience of temperature and weather doesn't matter at all. Stop being stupid.

            • So because you live in a place without well defined seasons no one elses experiences matter?

              Your hypocrisy is amusing. He literally acted as if no one else's experiences matter.

              Seasons are well defined everyone. Spring begins on the spring equinox. Summer begins on the summer solstice. Autumn begins on the autumnal equinox. Winter begins on the winter solstice. People's experience of temperature and weather doesn't matter at all. Stop being stupid.

              I'm sorry, I literally don't understand your point.

              During Groundhog day [wikipedia.org] do you run around saying that people are dumb because Groundhogs are incapable of time travel?

              There are calendar seasons and there are meteorological seasons. In places without well defined seasons people may only know the calendar seasons. But in places with seasonal variation the weather is what actually matters and phrases like "early spring" and "short summer" are common and well understood.

              The researcher is clearly talking about me

              • There is no such thing as "meteorological seasons". All season are based on the celestial movement.

                Again, stop being stupid.

    • Good. When you all are sweating your eyeballs out over the "summer" you can rejoice in the difference being technically correct makes.

      • Re: (Score:2)

        by dcw3 ( 649211 )

        I'll be dead long before that, and you'll still be an ass.

        • The sweet irony is that the millennials will still be mostly around, and that future era's young snots will probably be even worse.

    • No, you just insisted on applying the least relevant definition of season to the topic at hand.

      Meteorological seasons were not invented just for this study.

    • Temperature doesn't determine when or how long Summer is.

      It actually does in Sweden (and i believe Finland). The meteorologists define summer as a daily average above 10 degrees Celsius. The start of a season can only be known after the fact and is defined as "When there has been 5 consecutive days with a daily average above 10 degrees, then summer started on the first of those days"

      This means summer starts on different dates in different areas.

      This can also lead to complications such as this, that we had while back: If Winter never starts (there are never 5 cons

  • Really? (Score:3, Interesting)

    by anoncoward69 ( 6496862 ) on Monday March 22, 2021 @08:43PM (#61187498)
    It's been pretty damn cold all over this year. Still unseasonably cool in Fla. Usually by end of March we are full on into 80F days and 70F nights. Been downright frigid the 50's here the last few weeks at night, only barely getting into the 70's and a couple days into the 80's before it chills down again.

    • It's been pretty damn cold all over this year.

      No, your memory is short is all.

      This year is normal. - it's the last decade that's been unreasonably warm.

  • I'd write more about this is a terrible thing and all the ecosystem will die but first I need to go to the back yard and light my big pile of coal on fire.

    • The Earth has been through much worse and come out fine. The only thing in danger is humanity, and even that is doubtful. Humans also have undergone much more difficult times circumstances and come out better. Evolutionary pressure is a good thing, it keeps our gene pool from stagnating.

      • The Earth has been through much worse and come out fine. The only thing in danger is humanity, and even that is doubtful. Humans also have undergone much more difficult times circumstances and come out better. Evolutionary pressure is a good thing, it keeps our gene pool from stagnating.

        What about all those other species that will be affected by what humans are doing, don't we need those?

        • Theoretically all we need is yeast and other bacteria and vats of chemical food processors. As for animals, we probably need far fewer than we think.

  • I live in the north. I would love for all those gorgeous northern islands of Canada become habitable. What a gorgeous age we would live in then.

  • Summers will never be 6 months long. Summer is DEFINED AS the period between the summer solstice (generally June 22, plus or minus one day due to the cycle of leap years) and the autumnal equinox, about September 22.

    Oh, you're actually talking about the warm period of the year? Considering that we're heading into an extended solar minimum, it's more likely that the warm periods will be truncated rather than extended. Yes, "climate change" is happening, but they got it right the FIRST time, as "global coo

  • It is really hard for me to get excited about this. First, whether or not it is summer is determined by the length of days, not by the temperature. The length of days will not be changing any time soon, no matter what this paper says. Second, the constant drumbeat of global warming is very tiresome and gets harder and harder to attend to as we are still in the midst of an extremely cold winter. It may be getting statistically warmer. This has happened many times in our geological history. It has warme

  • There are only two seasons around here: Winter and Construction.

  • Summer already lasts 6 months. Are you guys crazy?

  • Yea for farming! (Score:3)

    by Tjp($)pjT ( 266360 ) on Tuesday March 23, 2021 @02:15PM (#61189960)
    This would increase vastly the summer crop production and would allow two harvests of summer crops and still get in a winter crop or plant a cycle of nitrogen fixing plants to reduce fertilizer requirements. Wheat will be growable farther north, along with other grains. Corn too, growable into Canada. And the plant residue not plowed under could produce bio diesel on a commercial scale.

    But ... we are going into a solar minimum. A grand solar minimum. Like the Marauder Minimum. So... don’t throw out your down coats.

  • I lived in Austin, TX, from '86-'94. Summer was ALL March into most of October. "Normal", back then, before climate change started getting worse, was 15-20 100 degree-plus days (F, not C). Plus meant 105F, 108F.

    Any of you ever been out in that? No, of course not, you live in HVAC buildings. Never mind that we'll get rolling blackouts, and you'll roast.

    • Any of you ever been out in that?

      Well I Iive in Australia and that is every summer for me, so yeah, you'll get used to it...

      No, of course not, you live in HVAC buildings.

      Oh you answered your own question. I'm not sure that is how it's supposed to work....

      Never mind that we'll get rolling blackouts, and you'll roast.

      That's where unreliable energy production takes you. Thankfully we still have coal power here, so no blackouts for us.

  • For a moment I was worried about Larry.

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