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No New Fossil Fuel Projects For Net-Zero: IEA (phys.org) 192

An anonymous reader quotes a report from Phys.Org: All future fossil fuel projects must be scrapped if the world is to reach net-zero carbon emissions by 2050 and to stand any chance of limiting warming to 1.5C, the International Energy Agency said Tuesday. In a special report designed to inform negotiators at the crucial COP26 climate summit in Glasgow in November, the IEA predicted a "sharp decline in fossil fuel demand" in the next three decades as well as a 2040 deadline for the global energy sector to achieve carbon neutrality. The Paris-based think tank called for a rapid and vast ramping up of renewable energy investment and capacity, which bring gains in development, wealth and human health.

IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol said the roadmap outlined in the report showed that the path to global net-zero by 2050 was "narrow but still achievable." "The scale and speed of the efforts demanded by this critical and formidable goal -- our best chance of tackling climate change and limiting global warming to 1.5C -- make this perhaps the greatest challenge humankind has ever faced," he said.
"Under the IEA's net-zero pathway, oil usage is projected to decline 75 percent and gas 55 percent by mid-century," the report notes. "It also said that all inefficient coal power plants needed to close by 2030 in order to achieve net-zero by 2050."

The IEA went on to say that around half of reductions by 2050 would be provided by "technologies that are currently only in demonstration or prototype phase," which include direct air capture and storage of CO2 from the atmosphere.
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No New Fossil Fuel Projects For Net-Zero: IEA

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  • by DesertNomad ( 885798 ) on Tuesday May 18, 2021 @11:41PM (#61398842)

    IKEA

  • by Barny ( 103770 ) on Wednesday May 19, 2021 @12:04AM (#61398878) Journal

    Coal and gas mining go brrrtt!

    • by BladeMelbourne ( 518866 ) on Wednesday May 19, 2021 @12:12AM (#61398890)

      The Australian Government just announced a new $AUD 600 million gas power plant. But nobody is surprised, because the liberal government doesn't care about the environment at all.

      • by bug_hunter ( 32923 ) on Wednesday May 19, 2021 @12:35AM (#61398926)

        For our international readers you should make sure to call them the Liberal (big L) government.

        But even the Labour government only half cares about the environment now after mining groups helped swing them out of power after they introduced a carbon tax.
        Maybe after our next massive bush fire opinions will change enough.

        • by Barny ( 103770 ) on Wednesday May 19, 2021 @01:49AM (#61399006) Journal

          It's something we just have to endure. /s

          Butt yeah, for those non-Aussies reading:
          Liberal party—right of center extension of the fossil-fuel industry
          National party—corruption factory
          Labor party—left of center and slightly estranged extension of the fossil-fuel industry

          There's others, but they're far more "what they say on the tin" parties.

      • Re: (Score:3, Insightful)

        by Ed Avis ( 5917 )
        Isn't gas less bad than coal?
        • by 1s44c ( 552956 )

          And renewables are better than either.

          • by MacMann ( 7518492 ) on Wednesday May 19, 2021 @05:11AM (#61399312)

            Renewable power is intermittent power. Or, put another way, renewable power is unreliable power.

            People talk about how if we only have grid scale storage, like batteries or pumped hydro, that renewable power can power our economy. They seem to forget that fuel is stored energy. We can mine the earth for "zero carbon" (in scare quotes because nothing is truly zero carbon) energy in uranium and thorium. If renewable energy is "zero carbon" energy then nuclear fission power must be "less than zero carbon" energy produces less carbon than any renewable energy source.

            Our future energy will come from a mix of geothermal, onshore wind, hydro, and nuclear fission. Geothermal power is a reliable energy source as we can draw from it as we wish, the energy is stored in the heat deep in the planet. There is a limited rate we can draw from this as taking too much too quickly will cool the local rocks and render it useless. That's no different than hydro, another energy source with an inherent store of energy in water behind a dam. We can only draw from it based on the rainfall in the area that feeds the dam. We can pump water back up the hill to store energy from other sources, and because these are often very large reservoirs with little loss over time we can store energy on seasonal scales. Because hydroelectric dams can vary their power output quickly we can use them to assist in load following with energy sources that cannot vary output quickly. Those sources would be geothermal and nuclear fission.

            Nuclear fission is a very reliable energy source. It is plentiful. It is safe, safer than anything else we've used for energy based on energy output to people that have died in producing that energy. Issues of radioactive waste or anything else people bring up in opposition are solved problems or a much smaller problem to address than those from other options. Nuclear fission will be a vital part of our future energy supply.

            Wind power has no inherent energy store. Unlike hydroelectric power there's no side benefits like providing a store of drinking water and aiding in the transport of goods by canals and rivers. What wind power has though is simplicity. Wind power is low tech and draws directly from other industries. The generators used in a windmill are not all that different than the generators in a small hydro dam, or large industrial motors. The towers are not that different from those used to hold up power lines. The windmill blades not that different that airplane wings. This is a simple technology and therefore a low cost technology. Well, it's a simple technology when onshore. When offshore it becomes complicated, labor intensive, and too expensive to bother with. Far more expensive than reliable power from hydro, geothermal, and nuclear fission.

            I read some idiot that claimed we could use nuclear fission power as backup for unreliable renewable energy. So, we invest billions of dollars in a nuclear power plant. A plant that has largely the same costs to operate whether is ti producing no power or a gigawatt of power. There is a fuel cost but that is so low it is lost in rounding errors. If we have large grid scale storage in batteries or pumped hydro, and reliable energy from nuclear power that only gets cheaper the more energy is drawn from it, then why would we bother with expensive and unreliable energy from offshore windmills and solar?

            Grid scale storage isn't going to make unreliable, and very expensive, energy sources like offshore wind and solar viable. Grid scale storage will make nuclear power far cheaper as it brings load following capability to an exceedingly reliable energy source. The uranium and thorium is both a store of energy and an energy source. We can draw from this store largely as we wish, and schedule periods for refuel, repair, and refit when demand is low. These periods can be staggered, unlike solar power where all solar power goes down in a region all at once, and with considerable regularity.

            Nuclear power isn't going

            • Re: (Score:2, Insightful)

              by vivian ( 156520 )

              I love the idea of nuclear fusion power, but that seems to always be 20 years away.
              Fission power is not viable as a global energy source - there simply isn't enough of it, and the cost of disposing of the waste, including decommissioning old plants is just too great - not to mention the cleanup costs when accidents do happen.

              So far there have been 2 really bad accidents, with the current number of reactors sitting around 440 in operation.
              Studies have shown that there is basically a chance of a serious accid

              • Sorry but you are either poorly informed or intentionally misguiding people.

                Fission power is a nearly infinite source of energy (although not quite as much so as fusion) - HOWEVER, to be so you need to have breeder reactors - which also nicely deal with most of the issues of waste. The 'only' issue with breeder reactors are politics and proliferation. there is no issue with fuel, none at all.

                Also , there have not bee 2 really bad accidents.
                There has been one moderately bad one, and one with very little actu

              • The biggest problem with nuclear fission is regulations so obstructive we barely get permission to build one. So when we do, we make them frigging huge. Many more smaller reactors have less impact should a problem arise than a great big one. Its also a more reliable power grid. The downside to smaller reactors is a function of cost per unit of power. As of now the only backup power we have is generators that are powered by either diesel, natural gas, or LNG. Even small data centers and server rooms require
              • by AmiMoJo ( 196126 )

                Also nuclear power cannot be used in many countries, because we don't trust them with it. They are going to want power as they develop so there needs to be a clean source of it that isn't nuclear, that doesn't have proliferation or safety issues.

                • by ghoul ( 157158 )
                  Those countries could give a flying f about whether you trust them or not. If they have the tech base to develop nuclear power they will.
              • Studies have shown that there is basically a chance of a serious accident every once per 3704 reactor years. ie. if you have 370 reactors in operation, you can expect one every 10 years.

                That's quite possibly true. It's also based on nuclear reactors built 30, 40, 50, and soon as much as 80 years ago. Even so nuclear power has proven safer than all other energy sources. Then comes new technology that is many orders of magnitude safer. You want to make the claim that nuclear power can only get more expensive and less safe? Then tell me why that would not apply to any other energy source? I'll have people argue that the nuclear power industry has a history of cutting corners on safety t

              • by Applehu Akbar ( 2968043 ) on Wednesday May 19, 2021 @11:31AM (#61400132)

                What kind of a world would we be living in if we had given up on commercial aviation after the first two accidents? At today's passenger loads, an average accident of the once-a-year variety kills about 200 people, while a really bad accident (collision of two 747s) killed 583 people. The worst nuclear accident, meranwhile, killed 51.

            • Re: (Score:2, Informative)

              I read some idiot that claimed we could use nuclear fission power as backup for unreliable renewable energy. So, we invest billions of dollars in a nuclear power plant. A plant that has largely the same costs to operate whether is ti producing no power or a gigawatt of power. There is a fuel cost but that is so low it is lost in rounding errors.

              So the more renewable power you have, the more expensive nuclear becomes. Seems hardly worth the bother. Just to make such an expensive option even more expensive.

              If we have large grid scale storage in batteries or pumped hydro, and reliable energy from nuclear power that only gets cheaper the more energy is drawn from it, ...

              If you have large grid scale storage, nuclear only gets less and less useful, and it also gets more and more expensive at the same time.

              then why would we bother with expensive and unreliable energy from offshore windmills and solar?

              The wind and solar will be much cheaper than nuclear. Whose price you already realized, goes higher and higher the less of it you need.

              • So the more renewable power you have, the more expensive nuclear becomes. Seems hardly worth the bother. Just to make such an expensive option even more expensive.

                You need to be more clear on the argument you are making. It reads like you are arguing that wind and solar are not worth bother with. That's my argument but your other comments contradict it, implying otherwise. You are possibly correct that as people build more renewable energy that nuclear power will become more expensive. That's why we should not build more renewable energy production than the grid can handle. I'll touch on this more below.

                If you have large grid scale storage, nuclear only gets less and less useful, and it also gets more and more expensive at the same time.

                Why would nuclear power get more expensive with more storag

                • Why would nuclear power get more expensive with more storage? If more storage makes nuclear power more expensive then don't build so much storage.

                  Build less nukes.
                  Since they are already the most expensive option and only getting worse if we have the storage already.

                  Wind and solar will be cheaper than nuclear?

                  Yes they will be.
                  That they are already cheaper now is obvious and hardly worth mentioning.
                  It will only get worse for nukes when you have to idle them most of the time. You really didn't understand?

                  That's why nobody is advocating for building more nuclear power plants than we need.

                  We don't need any if we have storage...

                  Do you know what also gets more expensive the less it is used? Everything. If we overbuild wind and solar power then it gets expensive too.

                  Depending of the cost of the storage, not necessarily. It may end up being cheaper to overbuild than to build storage.

                  (You already mentioned economies o

                  • It will only get worse for nukes when you have to idle them most of the time. You really didn't understand?

                    No, I don't understand. Why would a utility choose to raise it's own operating costs by throttling down a nuclear power plant? Why would they have to if there is storage as a place to put that energy?

                    You are not making any sense. Grid storage is there to prevent this.

                    Depending of the cost of the storage, not necessarily. It may end up being cheaper to overbuild than to build storage.

                    That's right, it may be cheaper to throttle down the nuclear power plant than buy more storage, so why pick on nuclear power operating costs for throttling down? That would happen to wind and solar as well, would it not? Wind, solar, and n

            • Re: (Score:2, Interesting)

              by AmiMoJo ( 196126 )

              Renewable power sources are extremely predictable and reliable. Say you have a solar farm, you can predict output over the next hour with great accuracy, and reasonably well over a few days. You might want a small battery for some smoothing, just to cover things like clouds, but basically you have plenty of time to deal with any shortfall.

              Australia also has excellent wind resources, some of the best in the world. The southern coastline lies in the roaring forties and many sites have average wind speeds abov

              • Renewable power sources are extremely predictable and reliable. Say you have a solar farm, you can predict output over the next hour with great accuracy, and reasonably well over a few days. You might want a small battery for some smoothing, just to cover things like clouds, but basically you have plenty of time to deal with any shortfall.

                Does the battery cover night time as well?

          • by jwhyche ( 6192 ) on Wednesday May 19, 2021 @10:22AM (#61399934) Homepage

            Natural Gas is a renewable. As any pig farmer that turns his pig shit in to methane for power. An that is just one example. There are dozens of sources that I can think of for natural gas that doesn't come from the ground. Taping local land files or some cows ass, come to mind.

      • That's nothing, China is building hundreds of coal plants around the world.

        One can safely assume that Australian plants will be as clean and efficient as technologically possible, as would be the case in most 1st world nations. It is also safe to assume China will build them as cheaply as possible, with reducing emissions being the last thing on their minds.

        • The real problem with nuclear power is it's supporters.

          Those of us that understand nuclear power and the benefits that it brings just don't have the balls to stand up to the anti nuke kooks and tell them to fuck off. Until that happens, nuclear power really isn't going any where.

  • Trees (Score:4, Insightful)

    by llZENll ( 545605 ) on Wednesday May 19, 2021 @12:13AM (#61398892)

    "technologies that are currently only in demonstration or prototype phase," which include direct air capture and storage of CO2 from the atmosphere.

    Pretty sure trees have been around for awhile. We do not need to do much of this if we simply pant an insane number of trees.

    • Not even an insane number. About 200 per person. Trees aren't very expensive to plant, and hardy ones appropriate to their environment aren't very expensive to maintain.
      • Not even an insane number. About 200 per person. Trees aren't very expensive to plant, and hardy ones appropriate to their environment aren't very expensive to maintain.

        Given the population growth rate, you've really counting on the marketing of "MIracle Gro", aren't you?

        No, they're not expensive to plant. The hard part is convincing ignorant people that they take a while to grow. That price tag you're avoiding, is called time.

      • by jwhyche ( 6192 ) on Wednesday May 19, 2021 @12:18PM (#61400328) Homepage

        Grass is even cheaper than trees and in the long run turns out to be a much better carbon sink than trees.

        https://climatechange.ucdavis.... [ucdavis.edu]

    • Trees would play a part in carbon capture if only organizations like Greenpeace would allow people to cut them down.

      Dr. Patrick Moore advocated for the use of trees as a means of carbon capture. He should know as he has a BS in forest biology and a PhD in ecology. In other words he was studying "climate science" before that term came into existence. He's been a critic of Greenpeace and other anti-scientific groups that claim to be protecting the planet.

      Another advocate for carbon sequestration is Dr. Dar

    • Pretty sure trees have been around for awhile. We do not need to do much of this if we simply pant an insane number of trees.

      It's not simple and the number is insane because we literally can't plant trees fast enough to fix our spare CO2. You could do it with bamboo in pretty short order if you could plant the entire planet in it, and I'm just talking about the land masses here; it would only take about three successions. But you can't actually do that, so that fact is frankly irrelevant and I'm pointing it out only to point out just how hard the problem actually is.

      It's not enough just to plant trees. You have to plant them wher

  • by grasshoppa ( 657393 ) on Wednesday May 19, 2021 @12:24AM (#61398908) Homepage

    Anyone who isn't promoting nuclear when discussing global warming ( climate change ) isn't actually wanting to solve the problem; they're trying to sell you something.

    It really is that simple at this point

    • by ebyrob ( 165903 )

      Look around at just the folks "helping" the problem. "Net" zero carbon? Ya right. We're all going to die. Earth was fun while it lasted.

      • Earth has warmed 1.2C since pre-industrial times. And life for pretty much every human on earth is so mind-blowingly better now than in pre-industrial times it's not even worth comparing.

        Good thing they were not all obsessed with the end of the world.
        • For a culture built on apocalyptic stories, people sure as shit don't seem to understand the concept of an apocalypse which is that it's sudden downfall -- like maybe what happened to the Egyptians when by and large many of them were living a lot better and better for centuries with a rather continuous civilization lasting millenia...

        • Earth has warmed 1.2C since pre-industrial times. And life for pretty much every human on earth is so mind-blowingly better now than in pre-industrial times it's not even worth comparing.

          Think how much better we will all be with another 1.2C
          But why not go for 2.4 or 4.8?
          It's going to be a paradise when we can get it up to 12C warmer.

          If I'm following your logic correctly...

          • Might as well say 100 degrees if you are going to go all argumentum ad absurdum. Within the bounds of realistic numbers, the end of the world is highly overstated.
    • by presidenteloco ( 659168 ) on Wednesday May 19, 2021 @12:56AM (#61398954)
      at this point, due to regulatory processes.

      We have to be on a trajectory to 50% emissions reductions within 9 years, and net-negative within about 30 years.

      Solar, wind, geothermal, smart-grid, energy storage, HVDC transmission lines, electrify and hydrogen-ize the economy. Only way to go fast enough.
      Solar and wind with smart grid and energy storage are the only ones that could get scaled up fast enough, given where they are now, technologically, regulatory, and price-wise.

      And yes, smart grid + HVDC + energy storage are enough to stabilize wind + solar into baseload-handling. All it would need is the government-led incentive mandate to get 'er done, or a massive carbon tax to force it done.
      • I pretty much agree with you except I think you under-estimate the matter of supply chain. I haven't looked at the stats in great detail but I think building all that will generate larger amounts of co2 in the near-term. Is this why you mention it needs to be 30 years and not 50, even though you say the matter is regulatory processes?

        I also think the issue of out-sourcing is a problem. Even if one country follows this pattern but then uses another country for extraction of such raw materials and fabrication

      • Nuclear power produces about 20% of the electricity in the USA and about 10% of all energy consumed in the USA. All renewable energy combined has a similar share of the market, about 20% of electricity and 10% of all energy. You want to claim it is impossible for nuclear power to grow but renewable energy can? Why is that? Oh, right, you say regulations.

        Did you know that for the last 50 years the Democrat Party has held up nuclear power at every opportunity? Did you know that last August this same Demo

    • by AmiMoJo ( 196126 )

      Anyone promoting nuclear is trying to sell you something: nuclear. It's insanely expensive. We simply can't afford to rely on it to solve climate change, people just won't pay the price.

      As we have seen the most effective way to reduce CO2 emissions is to make doing so the most economical option. As soon as wind power became the cheapest form of electricity generation the amount of investment shot up. It's got to the point in the UK where the cheapest electricity for the consumer is renewable, and people are

    • Wind, Solar and other renewable plants are much quicker to build than nuclear plants.
      And you can build them one panel by one panel and one turbine by one turbine, while a nuclear plant can only be built in a big bang.

      • while a nuclear plant can only be built in a big bang.

        Right, because the small nuclear reactors the US Navy has been mass producing for its submarines, aircraft carriers, frigates, cruisers, and destroyers are all figments of my imagination.

        Small modular reactors are not some technology we will only see in some far off future. It is a technology that has been well developed for warships over the last many decades. We can build a small modular reactor in a year or two. If we take this technology seriously, and I expect we will very soon, then we can mass pro

    • by MancunianMaskMan ( 701642 ) on Wednesday May 19, 2021 @05:05AM (#61399300)
      sad fact about nuclear is that it's not a suitable complement to wind/solar. Wind/solar are fine on their own when the going is good (sun shining/wind blowing) but to achieve reliable continuity, something has to fill the gaps. Nuclear power plans can't be fired up / shut down at a moment's notice, they were traditionally the "base load" providers. Hence an energy storage solution is what we need more than anything. Various contenders are trialling, but nothing has proven at the scale of "actual size".

      As much as i think nuclear power is awesome, it's not a good fit here, and it's expensive. If someone comes up with a radical new reactor design that comes with a convenient on/off toggle, now that would be a true game changer.

      • Both wind and solar are dependent on their location.

        I still say we're misusing solar. You see these giant solar farms out there, but those aren't practical for general use or even in the long term. Instead solar should really be on every rooftop, with batteries on every property, connected to the grid. It's job should be to lessen the load on traditional generation methods where appropriate. So in the central valley, CA, that makes sense. We get....something like 300+ sunny days a year ( with more smok

      • Then you have it backwards. Your reliable source should be the base load, not the intermittent source. Thus, wind/solar should be the compliments to nuclear, not the other way around.
      • sad fact about nuclear is that it's not a suitable complement to wind/solar.

        Then we build more nuclear power and stop building wind and solar.

        The USA is not going to abandon nuclear power. It's clean, safe, reliable, and the Democrats learned this last year. The Democrats held up nuclear power for 50 years but they flipped on that last August. The Democrats want more nuclear power, the Republicans wanted more nuclear power going back to the Nixon administration.

        If someone comes up with a radical new reactor design that comes with a convenient on/off toggle, now that would be a true game changer.

        Or, we stop the bullshit of putting money into unreliable energy so we don't have to turn nuclear power plants on and o

    • Anyone who isn't promoting nuclear when discussing global warming ( climate change ) isn't actually wanting to solve the problem; they're trying to sell you something.

      You have that 100% ass-backwards. PV Solar or wind + Battery is cheaper than nuclear per MWh. So if you really want to get maximum return for dollar spent on energy projects with minimum lifecycle emissions, and by the way without generating any nuclear waste that we still don't have a viable plan for handling, you spend it on solar or wind. You certainly don't spend it on nuclear, which uses the least concentrated thing we mine as fuel.

      It really is that simple at this point

      Simple is a great way to describe people who still believe the lies of

  • ... all that, then. Hope you all had a fun time because shit just got real.

  • I believe the West is going to lose out big in the energy transition as I'm convinced that oil and gas will simply be consumed by poorer countries who'll use the lower prices to kick start their economy. So every drop of oil and gas we're saving will simply be consumed elsewhere and the amount of CO2 savings will be minimal.

    I predict that by 2050 the CO2 will have dropped by a mere 50% at a cost of several trillion dollars. The space we've ceded will have simply been taken up by developing countries whos
  • by Petersko ( 564140 ) on Wednesday May 19, 2021 @04:14AM (#61399260)

    ...and start figuring out what to do about the impacts.

    We missed the chance to apply an ounce of prevention. Now let's get busy on the pound of cure.

    • by lorinc ( 2470890 )

      Spoiler: the cure will involve massive and inevitable downgrade of standard of living for a huge portion of the global population.

      • Huge portion of the global population has significantly lower "standard of living" (as defined by USA )compared to USA.

        When I immigrated to USA in early 1990s from India, it was considered a great, very prestigious. Bachelors with H1B were hot and they had absolutely no trouble find brides, pretty ones, rich ones, with great family connections .... Then right in front of my eyes situation changed. My direct report, IIT graduate no less, stable job with good income had so much difficulty finding a bride. G

  • FTS (Score:4, Insightful)

    by AndyKron ( 937105 ) on Wednesday May 19, 2021 @06:23AM (#61399416)
    While consuming large amounts of fuel themselves, the elite, overpaid, do-nothing IEA members bitch about how people are using too much fuel. Then they jump into jets and fly home. Fuck that shit.
  • by fygment ( 444210 ) on Wednesday May 19, 2021 @07:24AM (#61399506)

    You can check them out here [wikipedia.org].

    And by the way, doesn't it bother you that everything is escalated to 'crisis' or 'emergency'? Climate, covid, poverty, obesity, child poverty, drug trafficking, human trafficking, humanitarian insert your preference

    Since everything is a crisis/emergency then nothing is or alternatively, whatever you get convinced of is a crisis ... which doesn't make it an actual crisis.

    Instead of this mad dash to freak out and leap in to alternative technologies, how about taking a breath and trying to focus on doing things more efficiently and less wastefully.

    Because right now we're headed for the same old crisis but different. Like electric? When all the world is running on batteries, solar, and wind-farms tell me, what will the waste look like? No oil spills or wells, just strip mining for lithium, fields full of old wind-turbine blades, discarded solar panels ...

  • China will continue adding lots of new coal plants to both china and undeveloped nations. The real problem is that far left extremist will say they are allowed.

    At the same time, far lefties will continue fighting to stop nuke power plants.
  • From now on you must cook using only cow dung.

  • Relying on "technologies that are currently only in demonstration or prototype phase" might be a bit forward looking and optimistic?

Don't panic.

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