Tech Turnover Rate Lowest Since The 80's 425
cimmer writes "USA Today, the San Jose Business Journal and the suspiciously captivating monitor thing in the elevator are reporting the results of a survey conducted by Aon Consulting that states voluntary turnover in the tech industry is at 8.9%, 'the lowest in the history of the surveys, which date back to the mid-1980s'. Given all of the talk about an economic turnaround, are we looking at a potential tech turnover spike as individuals leave positions they have stayed in only because of a dismal job market? Aon seems to think so. Interestingly, the results of this study are released just as CNN.com reports that personal income growth is at its weakest in two years. Also of note is a discrepancy in the reported sample size, with USA Today stating the results are based upon input from 595 companies while the Business Journal reports that over 950 companies participated."
And all at once (Score:5, Funny)
We made it through guys! Good job!
Re:And all at once (Score:5, Funny)
Re:And all at once (Score:2, Interesting)
There was a global sig of releif.
The single coolest typo I've seen on Slashdot ... ever!
Re:And all at once (Score:3, Funny)
We made it through guys! Good job!
*scratches head*
The IT color scheme looks just as bad as ever, to me.
???
Re:And all at once (Score:5, Insightful)
I'd have to say, this isn't really a bad thing. I mean, the days of a 'lifetime job' have really been long over for quite awhile. Your employer hasn't been rewarding a loyal employee with loyalty for years now.
I figured, if I was just as expendable as a straight employee as a contractor, hell, I might as well enjoy the benefits of contract employment!! You might as well get the high bill rate....(if you're making $50-$100/hr, $3K a year for insurance if single is nothing)...you might as well get PAID for the OT hours they ask you. And...generally, you don't get stuck at one dead end job all the rest of your days.
Yeah, I know it is more secure to have a perm. job...same place...etc. But, I put it to you...those days really have been long gone. And as long as you now have the instability and insecurity of a contract job...you might as well bet paid at the contract rate..
Re:And all at once (Score:3, Insightful)
Re:And all at once (Score:5, Interesting)
Actually, I'm finding that self employment is one of the better ways to keep Uncle Sam out of your pocket. Especially if you incorporate yourself, and contract yourself out through your corporation.
A simple example, say you have an "S" corporation. You contract yourself out at say, $100K/yr. But, you pay yourself only about $45K/yr, or an amount that is 'reasonable'. You only have to pay self employement taxes on the $45K. Yes, you pay double (employer half and employee half), but, you get to deduct the extra half you have to pay. And the rest of the money, the $55K doesn't get SE taxed...but, filters through on your personal taxes. Then, you can write off tons of your expenses...percentages of your rent/mortgage, utilities, etc if you work from a 'home office'.
Heck, I'm finding this is about the only way to keep most of your money.
Raw Numbers? (Score:5, Insightful)
Where once great herds of IT professionals roamed the valley, only a few clusters remain here and there, each skittish any remote lightning flash of resource realignment or rumble of offshoring.
It is worth considering tho, that Information work is a relatively new thing and where many businesses once spent nothing on it they now would have a staff or contractor responsible for making sure all their technology continues to go and many businesses are still getting a grip on what the right size of commitment should be for their IT needs. As long as staff have improper technology for their particular function thanks to poor assessment of need, there will still be wiggle room for more (or less) tech staffing.
Re:Raw Numbers? (Score:2)
Re:Raw Numbers? (Score:2, Insightful)
Yeah, but the Valley is what I know and the entire Bay Area accounted for a lot of businesses on the leading edge of IT deployment.
Raise your hand if your boss doesn't have the most powerful PC in the place on his desk, while the people who actually perform the critical day to day fuctions make do with a clunker.
Re:Raw Numbers? (Score:3, Interesting)
I have an IBM T41 w/ extended battery, 1gig DDR ram, and a couple other little features (dvd burner, etc.) while my boss is on a T20 which barely keeps up with all his power point presentations. For the most part (and FWIW) my company sees the value in giving the DEVs the new stuff (makes the geeks happy and software/VHDL/OrCad all run gobs faster (which really counts). Think of all the time I saved by compiling my app in under 2 minutes rather than 10 (have to compile many times a day to track
Re:Raw Numbers? (Score:3, Funny)
Re:Raw Numbers? (Score:4, Funny)
Ye gods! Put them on the endangered species list!
Re:Raw Numbers? (Score:3, Funny)
You have to be careful of the relocation/repopulation program, though. One morning some Department of Wildlife rangers jumped out at me and shot me with a tranq gun. I woke up a day later at a data center in New Delhi, with a bastard of a headache and a yellow tracking tag stapled to my earlobe...
Re:Raw Numbers? (Score:3, Informative)
Call me a "spinmeister", but expressing turnover as a perentage seems far more informative to me than comparing the total number of individuals changing tech jobs in 2004 compared to 1984. Unless you own a moving company or a cubicle nameplate maker.
Re:Raw Numbers? (Score:5, Insightful)
Great herds? Yes. Professionals? No. Previously there was 1 true professional for every thousand "get rich quick" kids. Now the ratio is a bit more like 10:1.
On the bright side, these kids are off to something far more enjoyable. While they were in Technology, they worked long hours for little reward, and were often mistreated and stressed out. Now they work in jobs like construction or plumbing where the hours are fewer and the work more fulfilling. Let this be a lesson: never enter a corporate field unless you're SURE that's what you want.
Re:Raw Numbers? (Score:5, Funny)
I think a pertinent question you should ask yourself when considering a carreer is; what would you do if you had a million dollars?
If the answer is "two chicks at the same time", then indeed, why not opt for a field like construction?
Even picking up the burnt remains of, say, a torched down software company's building can still feel rewarding, because it's a honest day's work.
And in the end, who wants to be sitting in a cubicle from their twenties right until they're fifty? Although it would be nice to have that kind of job security..
Re:Raw Numbers? (Score:5, Insightful)
You should watch it again... (Score:3, Interesting)
But for some reason, it grew and grew on me... eventually I was forced to watch it again and loved it. Very odd. I think it was because of the prophetic qualities it offered, sort of like Hollywood went into a deep trance and suddenly offered a vision of the future in-between action movies.
Re:Raw Numbers? (Score:3, Funny)
Don't forget to put the cover sheet on the TPS report.
Re:Raw Numbers? (Score:4, Funny)
I can code for a few hours, take a break and play video games, come back to coding for a few more hours, and then be ready to enjoy the evening
Same here, except at my age, replace "take a break and play video games" with "take frequent naps".
Oh boy, sleep! That's where I'm a Viking!
Re:Raw Numbers? (Score:5, Interesting)
Right now they're playing the "I can find warm bodies in India" card. I expect that one will start falling apart within a few months. Just hang in there and keep looking. :-)
It will be a lot longer than a few months, especially when all the CxOs see these numbers [reuters.com].
A few sound bites:
Greed-crazed MBAs will be trampling each other (and their employees) in their rush to the beach. Offshoring is not going to abate until a bunch of companies get severely burned and are forced to admit it publicly. Offshoring is the next boondoggle after the dot bomb bubble.Re:Raw Numbers? (Score:5, Interesting)
companies have been taking advantage of the "dismal" job market with their IT staff. Increasing workloads and duties while freezing or even reducing wages and benefits. This WILL come bac kto bite them hard in the arse. Personally, I'm the Single IT guy for 4 offices spread out on this 1/2 of the state. They also use me as the only web-app designer guy that knows how to interface to databases well (Oracle MS and MySQL databases one PHP program pulling data from all.) They have over the past 5 years increased my workload significantly with promises of "big plans" and the only reason I am still here was the dismal state of IT jobs.
I'm not the only one, many of the guys from the other states also feel this way. we are IT with IT wages asked to do Programmer's tasks on programmer timetables while expected to not let our regular duties suffer. When the tough times start relaxing there will be a mass exodus of highly talented people from this company. hell I've been pushed to the point that I'm willing to uproot my family and yank my child out of her school (7th grade, the WORST time to move in a teen's eyes) because I am sick of the crap.
Also, these companies are kicking themselves because I regularly tell other professionals that they should NOT work for the company I work for and fill them in on the details. Therefore giving the company a blackballed image making it harder to attract talented IT professionals at the dismal pay scale they have.
Almost 40% of the IT departments around the country that I have contact with all feel the same way... and that is a dangerous thing for any company to have a large portion of their technical staff disgruntled enough to be looking elsewhere and ready to jump ship.
Re:Raw Numbers? (Score:3, Insightful)
Why? According to a recent study by the Institute for Policy Studies (here [yahoo.com], and in my journal) CEO pay overall was 301 times higher than the $26,899 earned by the average production worker. Maybe we can assume the average I/T professional makes twice this much, and thus CEO pay overall is ~150 times higher. (Also, these measurements are for the U.S. only.)
But, CEO pay overall was 1,300 times higher than the average Indian Programmer or 3,300 times high
Re:Raw Numbers? (Score:3, Insightful)
The CEO, CTO, CFO and EIEIO are not the idea thinkers
Re:Raw Numbers? (Score:3, Informative)
Good Riddance. The Tech employment percentage is getting closer to what it was in the late 80's early ninties. Which is probably about right.
until now (Score:5, Funny)
voluntary turnover (Score:5, Insightful)
Hey, what's this pink piece of paper stuck to my paycheque?
Re:voluntary turnover (Score:5, Informative)
Exactly! But for those who didn't RTFA, it does say "The numbers do not include workers who are laid off, Aon says. Last year, 11.2% of the workforce left jobs involuntarily, compared with 20.3% in 2001, when the tech bubble burst." So it appears that involuntary layoffs are also down.
Re:involuntary turnover (Score:3, Insightful)
That brings up a question: they say that 8.9% is the lowest voluntary turnover since the early 80's, and that the involuntary turnover of 11.2% is lower than it was in 2001. That's hardly a fair comparison, since the 2001 number would be the highest rate (or nearly so). What I want to know is, what was the lowest involuntary turnover rate?
Re:voluntary turnover (Score:4, Interesting)
Unless some of that original 20% had been rehired between the first poll and the second then we're still ultimately down about 28%, not apparently including any numbers from 2002.
Are we seeing businesses being more stable because they're doing better or because they've come to rest at the bottom of a falling tide?
I guess the bottom line is: Were we 28% overstaffed in 2001 or are we 28% understaffed after the layoffs? Or do we know?
I ain't leavin' (Score:4, Insightful)
I'm in a job, working for a fairly stable place. I've had friends who had 5 or 6 jobs in the past 5 years. They've gone from the high of "wow, I'm makin' a shitload of money!" to the low of "damn...unemployment won't even cover my car payment".
Until things get really good, I won't be leaving my SECURE job.
So nobody else will be sitting in my chair (turnover) until you pry my sweaty, greasy ass off of it.
Re:I ain't leavin' (Score:4, Funny)
Thanks for the visual. Who would want it after that anyway?
Re:I ain't leavin' (Score:4, Interesting)
I now have completed so much "career development," with 10 years of industry experience, that my resume places me around $65,000 for my regional job market. My company pays me more than 25% below that number. Most of this is from a cumulative 3% raise over the past three years, even as layoffs have happened, workload has increased, skillset has improved, and performance reviews have remained consistently "full to exceeds performance."
So now, with the market opening up, I find myself shopping for another steady, stable job. What really yanks my crank is that despite the games our HR has been playing with compensation, I have a lot of great professional relationships built up inside the company that I am now forced to abandon to acheive "market value." And with the potential for a 25% raise, that isn't much of a counter-argument.
When I sit down and speak candidly with my boss about my concerns about compensation, try to sell myself with what I am tasked with and how my client and peer feedback backs me up, I get a story about how a new compensation is coming... first it was October, now it is next April... and raises are "un-doable" until then.... and besides, teh market is rough, we're all lucky just to have jobs... as he plans the landscaping upgrades to his new-development home and getting ready to trade in his Jeep Grand Cherokee.
I don't have time for this BS. The same games get played in cycles at many, many companies. But for a 20-25% raise, I'm more than willing to play someone else's game. Maybe then I can afford "the BIG Hyundai" when this one's paid off. Steady, stable employment is good, but don't let them convince you that it's worth far less money for "security." We had layoffs again yesterday, and it can happen to you tomorrow for all you really know.
Re:I ain't leavin' (Score:3, Informative)
Recently my company conducted a "climate survey." One of the items that came up over and over and over again in the climate survey--and not just in IT--is that we are underpaid compared to other similar companies in our geographic area.
So what did the PHBs do? Decide that they obviously weren't telling us enough about the salary survey that they use that shows that we aren't underpaid. This despite the fact that people in my department know what programmers at other companies are m
Re:I ain't leavin' (Score:3, Insightful)
Ironic aside: my co-worker with an MBA and 12 years with the company left today for the SAME JOB at
Re:I ain't leavin' (Score:3, Interesting)
You have a four digit
But no mention of a college degree, which puts you with the also-rans (no offense.)
Forty seven comma five zero zero ($65k x
Here's a little secret : companies around you aren't hiring sys/admins or A+ techs
Low turnover rate... (Score:4, Interesting)
Re:Low turnover rate... (Score:3, Interesting)
I think we're more likely to leave a poorly-managed company. What's more, in the post-tech bust, the companies that are still alive are more likely to have good management; they needed it to survive. The result: The jobs that remain are better jobs.
It has been dismal for me too. (Score:5, Funny)
It's a joke, Honest!
Finances? (Score:4, Funny)
"I've been working as a Technical Support specialist because all you College-educated people stole my job as a Fry Cook."
Were you able to adjust to the paycut alright?
Geeks (Score:5, Insightful)
Re:Geeks (Score:4, Insightful)
Funny (ironic) thing is that the buy who left the position I accepted recently was not a techy guy himself. He's an executive for some weekly paper in a neighboring city.
I hope you're right about the "people with tallent and skills" finally getting what they deserve. All those damned paper MCSEs out there spelled doom for a lot of us.
On an unrelated note, during my long period of unemployment, I watched a LOT of TV... a LOT of commercials talking about "hot new jobs in the tech sector! get training at 1-800-blah-blah-blah..." All I could do was sit and grumble about it... those bastards are still trying to turn out tech-job hopefuls at a time when people were losing their jobs at record-high rates. Simply remarkable.
Re:Geeks (Score:4, Interesting)
I'm going through that now. 19 years of computer work all over the map, and {WHAM} I get outsourced once I sought stability, and now they're telling me I have to get certified. Certified? To do the job I've done perfectly well so far?
I've decided not to comply. They'll have to fire me out of this job. A newbie came by yesterday and I got the chance to find out more about the company that we were outsourced to. As he said it, all they cared about during his interview was that he was A+ certified
I'm not going to let "them" discredit experience. After all, if 19 years experience with computers is worth nothing, then anything can be discredited. Certifications, degrees
Re:Geeks (Score:3, Insightful)
To me, that seems to bolster TFA's point more than it does yours. If it's that hard even for skilled people to find employment, it means that people in this industry will probably be clinging to their jobs with tooth and nail. I see no reason why "pseudogeeks" would be much more eager to give up their tech job than "real geeks" would. A paycheck is a paycheck.
Geeks-Survival instinct. (Score:3, Insightful)
The 90's people have already left. It's now 2004 Are you still going to use them as an excuse for world ills when 2007 rolls around?
"Those who are still here are the ones that do it more then just for the money... because it is what we were born to do."
People aren't "born" into their professions. Another reason has nothing to do with "love" and more to do with the choice between no job, or hanging onto the one you have. That's not "love" that's survival instinct.
Re:Geeks (Score:3, Insightful)
duh. (Score:5, Insightful)
People are staying put until the market sorts itself out. Nothing to see here...move along.
Why personal income is down (Score:5, Informative)
But importantly wages and salaries did rise in the month, up 0.4 percent. Other sources of income weakened, including Medicare reimbursements, rental income, and interest income.
No!!! (Score:4, Funny)
Whew, thanks. I was possesed by the collective spirit of Slashdot there for a second.
Wait...spoke too soon! Feel....Microsoft.....rant....coming on.......
continuing (Score:3, Insightful)
Re:Not true. (Score:3, Interesting)
Please don't be ignorant. In 1950, manufacturing jobs were 30% of the US workforce. By 1975, it was 23%. Now it is 11%.
During that time, manufacturing has consistantly been around 15-20% of US GDP, due to increasing working productivity.
Biding our time.... (Score:3, Interesting)
Tech folks I know are happy to have jobs, even if they're not happy with the actual jobs themselves. Nothing exciting is really happening, and nothing that pays as well as boring, uncreative tedium.
All I know is my corp will be first against the wall when the revolution comes.
OTOH, my UT2004 sk33l7_ have improved quite a bit, over what was an admittedly poor baseline
Yes, oh gawd yes. (Score:5, Interesting)
low turnover? (Score:3, Funny)
economic recovery my arse (Score:5, Interesting)
Personally, the pressure has been on for 3 years and I am burning out... are you? That doesn't bode well for the tech industry again.
Tech market looking up (Score:4, Interesting)
Simon.
Re:Tech market looking up (Score:3, Insightful)
Re:Tech market looking up (Score:4, Informative)
Be sure you know what you're getting yourself in to with an H1b. If you're going to be there more than a year enter the US with the dual intent of permanent residency: apply for a green card immediately, and pressure your employer to pay for it. Get them to agree before you agree to go. Hey: they might even take it as a commitment to the job position.
I'm a Briton who spent three years in the US under H1b. I'm now a permanent resident of Canada and filling out the paper work for citizenship here. I don't think I would want to be an H1b again.
H1b was fine in my early 20s. I had no responsibilities and was just looking for a good time. I got to live and travel in the US, paid for by a good job there. If I lost my job it didn't bother me that I might have to leave the US and start all over again elsewhere. Besides, the economy was good then
Don't even start thinking about what applying for something permanent in the US means. It doesn't mean you're becoming an American. It doesn't mean you're turning your back on your culture and past. But this is what a lot of people think and feel. It does mean that you're hedging your bets and perhaps making your choices and stress levels easier in the future. It does mean that you want to make your life easier. It does mean that you don't want so much hassle from those nasty ignorant c**ts on the border. At the end of the day, if you don't want to stay in the US, you can stop the process, or you can leave with an option to return more easily in the future. It's about choice.
Re:Tech market looking up (Score:4, Interesting)
A townhome in Silicon Valley is $500,000. A "real" home is $700,000. To buy, you need to put 20% down (I put down less, but I had to accept some terrible terms because of it). So, if you have $100,000+ saved up, or you can save it over a reasonable period of time, then living in Silicon Valley is OK. You'll be able to build a fair life for yourself. But if you don't have that kind of money, Silicon Valley is baaaadd. You will pay huge amounts of money to rent a place you'll never be able to own. You will pay more for food and other necessities. You will have to deal with bad traffic during your daily commute. It's the kind of thing that people in their 20s can handle for a while, but everyone else either buys a home or moves to another state.
Oh well. Silicon Valley does have other nice things about it. It truly is a melting pot. You will interact with people from India, Japan, China, the UK, Russia, and elsewhere -- daily. When you want to eat, you will be able to choose from bratwurst at a local German pub to Thai food, and everything in between. Personally, I usually just go for a burger or sandwich nowadays, but every now and then I hook up with someone new to the area -- they're almost always like a kid in a candy store, with a list of things to eat and places to go. I like that. And if you hate your job, there are 10,000 other big tech companies that will want to employ you. Or at least, they did want to employ you... until the economy went bad.
It's your choice, but know what you're getting into.
Re:Tech market looking up (Score:3, Funny)
Interesting comparison.
California: High Taxes, Mudslides, Wildfires and Earthquakes.
Florida: Alligators, Very Large Insects, Humidity, and Hurricanes.
Just give up and move to Iowa.
Re:Tech market looking up (Score:4, Funny)
Florida: Alligators, Very Large Insects, Humidity, and Hurricanes.
Just give up and move to Iowa.
Iowa: Corn, corn, corn and corn.
Give me the earthquakes and alligators.
Another possibility... (Score:5, Insightful)
Re:Another possibility... (Score:4, Informative)
My experience from before, during, and after the IT bubble is the exact opposite. Most of the older tech guys I knew before the bubble took ridiculously high offers from 1997-2000. Then, they all got fired when the tech market collapsed. Now, they are still asking for those salaries. For the numbers: I live in South Carolina - notorious for low pay. A web designer here makes $20k-$40k. A programmer makes $30k-$60k. We get older web designers asking for $80k+ and programmers asking $120k+. The younger guys are asking for salaries that are in the range people are willing to pay and then filling up the jobs.
Of course, this is all regional. It is very possible that the older guys in your area aren't dumb enough to think they can still make the salaries of the late 90's.
I'm not quitting (Score:5, Insightful)
It took me a VERY long time to get back into IT. Prior to this, I worked two other non-technical jobs only after unemployment and the two extensions ran out. During the period of unemployment I can't recall ever actually getting an interview. The crap-job I took at the airport let me to another job less crappy. During that job, I interviewed only a few times. Almost two years later I get this one. It's not the best paying IT job I've ever gotten but it's with a good company and it's stable. I'm not going ANYWHERE. That's the lesson I've learned from my previous years of job-hopping...
anecdotal intellectual capital (Score:5, Insightful)
Business Leaders Can't Be Trusted (Score:4, Insightful)
Re:Business Leaders Can't Be Trusted (Score:3, Interesting)
When I'll switch (Score:2)
Makes sense: people feeling less secure (Score:5, Insightful)
- Dependence on Chinese and Japanese foreign banks to prop up the dollar - how long can ths go on?
- reliance on non-sustainable consumer debt spending - how long can ths go on?
- realization that our great material life style will naturally slide a bit as third world countries out-compete us in some areas
That said, I am an independent consultant, and it seems to me that business has really picked up in the last year - so I don't think that it is all doom and gloom on the economy - it is just that things might not be as great as they once were.-Mark
Re:Makes sense: people feeling less secure (Score:3, Interesting)
Then again, think John Maynard Keynes: 'In the long term, we are all dead'.
As to the third world countries competing: At the moment it is not happening.
One of the reasons is that living to the WTO's rules make it for 'them' hard to stop expensive imports, while allowing 'us' to block 'their'
Re:Makes sense: people feeling less secure (Score:3, Interesting)
Re:Makes sense: people feeling less secure (Score:3, Insightful)
First of all, it is difficult to argue that Asian banks prop up the dollar as an act of goodwill. Rather, they do so as they have incentive to--dollars and dollar-denominated assets continue to be reasonably stable investments over the long term. The US government still ain't going anywhere. Moreover, a US collapse is inconceivable without the rest of the world following, at least until China has had another
Re:Makes sense: people feeling less secure (Score:3, Informative)
That's because you are wrong [dolf.com] about that. And a bit else, but I am sick and tired of trying to inject basic, responsible economic theory into conversations like this. People like fudging, wink-wink-nudge-nudging and generally ignoring any possibility that things might not work out so great over the next fifty years (which I and most others here will most likely be aliv
Re:Makes sense: people feeling less secure (Score:3, Insightful)
It is the central (government) banks of Asia that are buying treasuries; they are not investing in dollar assets, they are selling their own currencies against USD in order to keep their products cheap for export. Yes, they perceive this as self-interest, but it i
Re:Makes sense: people feeling less secure (Score:3, Informative)
You have this right: the economy is chaotic and can not be predicted. Yeah for Chaos Theory...
We can say what ought to probably happen based on history and common sense, but in the end, we just do not know what will happen.
Best regards,
Mark
taking salary cuts? (Score:3, Interesting)
Low turnover = low wage growth (Score:5, Insightful)
I don't think it's common place to get big increases in salaries without moving on to a different job. Seems to me that most employers sqwauk at giving out even miniscule inflation raises (2 - 3%) where as, often times I find hiring employers are willing to pay more "for the right person", who will usually only leave their job if they get a better deal.
I don't know many people who would leave for a lower paying job, unless there is some esoteric reason, or much better overall compenstation package (i.e. health benefits, private yacht, etc).
Which gets back to my point, the only way to get large raises is to move around. Remain stagnant, and your raises will too.
This will be a HUGE EXODUS I think (Score:5, Insightful)
All of this, of course, assumes that the economy really picks up, which is something I'm not seeing.
Quick picture (Score:4, Interesting)
Re:Quick picture (Score:3, Interesting)
Dude, considering what this sector's been like for the past few years - if you're working and own a freaking house, all without any college degree... then you're doing pretty dang well in my opinion.
Re:Quick picture (Score:4, Insightful)
Pleanty of us are making more now than three years ago. Not a lot more, but enough to be just at the edge of insulting.
If you can barely make your house payments, thinking about what your real opportuntity to double your salary again really is might be in order. Because barely making house payments at the top of the real estate market is better than at the bottom.
I doubt this change in the hiring market will affect anyone but the fairly senior people. Thats what I've been seeing lately -- an explosion in the number of available jobs for senior people, to the point where probably 75% of the senior or principal level engineers I know are actively looking for new options, and most are turning down offers on the path to finding one they really want.
The only way it'll impact lower level positions is if the software industry really takes off and companies need a lot more grunt labor, but I'd bet thats a year off, even if things stay improving, or if enough of a shortage of senior people happen that companies get agressive promoting from within -- but you run the risk of ending up with an underqualified development team just as most companies experienced in the late 90's.
It's hard times. (Score:3, Interesting)
Just wanted to point out a fact of business (Score:5, Interesting)
They also get legitmately let go do to better staffed businesses that are more tech savvy.
Other reasons tech jobs are lost:
Better quality computers
Better maintenance habits by users
More automated processes on computers
Hardware is pushed more consumer oriented (very noticeable in networking)
A lot of IT workers just don't do good jobs and have bad rapport with staff they serve
A lot of IT workers do their job for money and not for enjoyment - money & job logevity come if you enjoy what you do
Some people are actually realizing Microsoft and maintenance are not necessarily the best solution and turing to Macs or specialized devices to do work = need for less IT staff
I like how the author of the article had to get the subtle Bush bashing in the comment.
Some turnover (Score:4, Insightful)
No discrepancy here (Score:4, Informative)
The Business Journal states that it was 950 companies that responded, but even it states that the 8.9% voluntary turnover number was arrived ONLY from Tech Companies (i.e., not from ALL the companies that responded):
From the Journal Article:
Voluntary turnover among surveyed tech companies is at 8.9 percent, according to Aon's research.
Let's read a little closer before making assumptions, shall we?
Yeah, but check this crap out.. (Score:5, Informative)
I have no idea how they can find that the tech turnover rate has declined..
Kinda slim data, eh? (Score:3, Interesting)
In the early days of a tech career it is certain that they will move to find better paying and better suited jobs. But as the tech gets older they're putting more value on stability. With mortgages, children's college tuitions and retirement being more of a factor it leaves less room to take the risks of moving from company to company.
Put simply I don't find the one set of numbers very conclusive.
many jobs after boomer retirements (Score:3, Insightful)
I'll probably leave (Score:3, Insightful)
Pretty much all of us still want to be wherever it is we wanted to be when everything went down the crapper. If the opportunity knocks, I'm sure most of us will answer.
Outsourcing = Low Turnover (Score:3, Insightful)
Of course. (Score:3, Insightful)
Of course, this got blown out of the water in the Burst Bubble(tm). Techies like myself have hung onto a job (if we have one) if it's stable and provides because there aren't any other options open sufficient enough to make a logical move. I've seen a few jobs that look more interesting than mine but the pay rates still aren't in the neighborhood of what I would like to have to make a move (pay or benefits, for that matter).
So, the economy comes back. Businesses level off and then start expanding again, hopefully this time at a bit more controlled level. Jobs will start opening up and depending on the saturation of the market, wages will go up for techs. The offshoring of tech will only continue to a particular point; it'll become part of the factor that will control wages and job availability, so it's less likely to bounce back quickly. But the time will come when jobs will open up that are at a pay level, benefit level, and stability that sensible techs who have been sitting tight will feel OK to make a move.
And they will. I just don't know as though you're going to see a large rush of this happening, as most of us are gunshy and are unlikely to follow in mad chaos on the latest trend again. (I said most...there'll always be the few oddities.)
Re:Of course. (Score:3, Insightful)
And I acknowledged that in my above post -- I said that things would likely be quite different with the great push towards outsourcing; it'll significantly change the job market and the way the economy works. There's likely to be other factors as well -- new technology, legal precedents
Job Cycle. (Score:3, Interesting)
1 Post ads.
2 Hire best person from ads.
3 Employee lied about abilities.
4 Employee stops working.
5 Fire Employee.
6 goto 1
In five years my company has only found one employee worth keeping. The rest just work for a week or two, then we have to beg them to do anything. Eventually we fire them and look for more. The problem with this is that we are so busy we can't keep up.
It's too hard to find good employee's. And it's very hard having to pay $500+ each time we advertise for help.
Try finding a webmaster that actually knows what standards compliant HTML looks like. We've been looking for over six months to fill that position.
Re:Job Cycle. (Score:5, Insightful)
1. Post ad
2. HR filters out all the really capable and honest people using unrealistic requirements lists (e.g. 15 years experience with Win NT in 1999) and/or requiring certs that only people with no real work to do, have time to get.
3. Only people who lied on their resumes get through the screening process
4. Pick the best of the lot
5. New employee turns out to be a flaky incompetent, shuffle him to make work
6. Tech manager hires knowledgable worker on his own, with out going through HR to do the flakes job
7. Company goes through layoffs, and the knowledgeable guy is let go first because he is not on the official TO&E
8. Flaky guy takes over knowledgeable guys projects and hoses them up
9. Tech manager quits in disgust
10. Flaky guy is promoted to tech managers job
I have seen this exact sequence carried out at least four times.
Job Creation, Wage Stagnation (Score:5, Insightful)
Discussed in this recent article [nytimes.com].
My experience has been that people with IT jobs that pay anything tolerable are glad they even have a job.
First, the .com and telecom overcapacity meltdown that led into the 2001 recession, then the growing outsourcing trend.
Meanwhile, "do more, better, faster, cheaper" mantra still plays with management and has continued to load too many additional chores onto people with no reasonable alternative in job choice. People have complained about the workload to a management that is completely out of touch with the problems and concerns of their employees.
As others have noted, the pent-up demand will lead to a spike in turnover if the economy ever gets into more than first gear.
More importantly, though, is what's happening right now.
Not a pretty picture.
If I were a CIO I'd be looking to make my org a nicer place to work right now so that my reputation for attracting and retaining good people would be in place when the herd starts to stampede.
How many people can still really program? (Score:5, Interesting)
Then I ask them to send me 1000 lines of C++ they're proud of. Doesn't matter what it does; I just want to see how they code. Many of them look scared. "Is C OK?" "I'm not really that good at C++". "Can I use Python?".
When someone sends us code, I read it and send comments back. I'm looking for robustness. ("We have received your code sample. Your first buffer overflow is on line 52. Thank you for your interest in Team Overbot.") I'm looking for some basic knowledge of C++. I'm looking for a reasonable level of comments.
I think the number of good programmers out there is declining. There are hordes of sysadmins and low-level coders, more than ever, but most of them aren't that good.
Re:How many people can still really program? (Score:3, Interesting)
C++ programmers, definitely. I don't see many young developers with much, if any, C++ experience. Unless you're in a niche (simulations, games), you're doing Java.
Schools seem to generate decent Java grads nowadays, however you can't expect a Java developer to pick up C++ the way many of us C++ites picked up Java back in the day. It's always
Low Turnover == Poor Benefits (Score:3, Informative)
Re:Wonder How Things Will Be For SCO Employees? (Score:3, Funny)