Newsy Numbers 332
EriDay writes "The Wall Street Journal has a new feature called The Numbers Guy about "the way numbers and statistics are used - and abused - in the news, business and politics". The first installment lets us know that somewhere between 0 and 1 Billion (or more) people will be killed by Asian bird flu."
Statistical Lies... (Score:5, Informative)
First published in 1954: How to Lie With Statistics [amazon.com]
Good book, recommended reading, if you like the above article.
Re:Statistical Lies... (Score:2, Informative)
Re:Statistical Lies... (Score:5, Informative)
rule #1... (Score:3)
Re:rule #1... (Score:2)
"There's a sucker born every minute." -- PT Barnum
"The thing that scares the shit out of me is when I realize that half of all people are of below average intelligence." -- Dennis Leary
Bad statistics jokes (Score:5, Funny)
A statistician discovered that the probability of a bomb being on board a given aircraft was alarmingly high. But he realized that the probability of two bombs being on board the same aircraft was reassuringly low.
So these days, whenever he flies, he carries a bomb with him.
---- ____ ----
A university surveyed its graduate students, and found that the male students averaged 1.8 children each, while he female students averaged 1.4 children each. Therefore men have more kids than women.
Statistics, Schmatistics... (Score:3, Funny)
Re:Statistical Lies... (Score:5, Insightful)
Also, there is a popular quote that goes "Lies, damn lies, and statistics".
Similar to the article, there is a strange number game that was done a while back when the SARS "epidemic" hit the world. A total of about 850 people died from the thing, yet annually 10,000 or so people die from influenza. SARS is an epidemic, influenza not.
However, people have heard of influenza and not SARS, so I guess it makes for better headlines.
Re:Statistical Lies... (Score:3)
Re:Statistical Lies... (Score:3, Insightful)
So you would rather take a bullet instead of smoking?
Wow that is the first example of self-darwinating I've seen yet.
Wait no see the 9/11 bit ruins the surprise.
SARS (Score:4, Informative)
Why was SARS so significant?
So you've got a new, disease with unknown agent, few treatments, high mortality, and a large impact on healthcare infrastructure. Not a good sign.
The extent to which cases and deaths due to SARS were minimized is not an indication that the disease was overblown, but that the response to it was highly effective. Remember that there was a massive quarantine effort made. Again from Wikipedia:
SARS was a very close call, and a big wakeup alert.
Re:Statistical Lies... (Score:3, Funny)
It's still a lot easier to lie without statistics...
Re:Statistical Lies... (Score:3, Informative)
http://my.execpc.com/4A/B7/helberg/pitfalls/ [execpc.com]
http://www.stat.berkeley.edu/users/stark/SticiGui/ Text/ch16.htm [berkeley.edu]
With information like this available about the misuse of statistics, I find the crap that comes out of the current Presidential administration amusing. Things like jiggling the numbers when reporting the number of wounded and dead from Iraq, employment numbers, Social Security liquidity, that sort of thing. Understanding how statistics are used as propoganda tools ma
Re:Statistical Lies... (Score:2)
Re:Statistical Lies... (Score:3, Funny)
My personal favorite (Score:4, Funny)
I'm still not really sure what that means.
Re:My personal favorite (Score:3, Funny)
it should be "3 million plus or minus 2% 19 times out of 20", right?
Re:My personal favorite (Score:2)
Re:My personal favorite (Score:2)
diet books/ aprox US pop.
Re:My personal favorite (Score:3, Funny)
"Did you know that Americans spend more on porn in one year then the entire national debt of Sub-Saharan Africa"
Now go purchase/find/obtain/download the song that followed: "I will not look at titties for a year"
Re:My personal favorite (Score:3, Funny)
"New studies show that 100% of all smokers die."
Re:My personal favorite (Score:3, Informative)
Re:My personal favorite (Score:2)
Alright! Another thread where we can bash Bush (Score:2, Funny)
I am very excited about the forth coming insults, unfounded claims, personal attacks and general hyper polarization this thread promises!
Go Slashdot!
Re:Alright! Another thread where we can bash Bush (Score:5, Funny)
Yeah, those folks at the Wall Street Journal are nothing but a bunch of crazy liberals.
Re:Alright! Another thread where we can bash Bush (Score:2)
Agreed, but this guy is now just inviting even more of that tripe.
Re:Alright! Another thread where we can bash Bush (Score:2)
I was not trashing the WSJ. It's a fine newspaper.
Re:Alright! Another thread where we can bash Bush (Score:2, Insightful)
Re:Alright! Another thread where we can bash Bush (Score:2)
...who are obviously all above criticism by any true American, regardless of what they say or do!
Does this mean the exit polls could be wrong? (Score:2)
So... (Score:5, Funny)
Excellent, it's nice to know that a negative number of people won't die.
Negative death rate (Re:So...) (Score:2)
What if one or more people get sick with a particular pathogen and end up having to go to the hospital. In the end, the doctors save the day, and all the ill folks leave feeling much better, thank you. Now, suppose a few of the formerly hospitalized fellows (or females) fell in love and made little ones with special someones (to be sterotypical, nurses)
Re:So... (Score:4, Interesting)
When I'm in the mood to tweak, I'll bring up the idea that deaths should be scaled by life expectancy. An extreme example would be that maybe the death of a 90 year-old guy with cancer should only count about 1% as much as the death of a healthy college kid.
This is at first a bit horrifying, but it changes the perception of health risk a bit. A car accident can strike at any time no matter your health or life-expectancy, but the flu is far harsher on the very young and the very old. Heart attacks quite rare for the under-30 crowd, become very common in the 50's and 60's and start tapering off since people who are susceptible have already had them. Various other ailments have other relationships to life-expectancy, both for susceptibility and for impact.
The logical conclusion I always get to is that we should focus a lot more health resources on the very young, i.e. pre-natal and neo-natal care, free vaccinations, healthy childhood diets and exercise, lifelong sunscreen habits, semi-intentional exposure to a variety of colds and flus in the teens and 20's, and moderation of alcohol and fatty foods after that.
It's all common sense stuff and would pay off 100:1 compared to after-the-event treatments for things like heart attacks and cancer.
Re:So... (Score:2)
Since 43% of all statistics are inaccurate, (Score:2, Funny)
Re:Since 43% of all statistics are inaccurate, (Score:2)
Did you know... (Score:5, Funny)
Re:Did you know... (Score:2)
anything that's even remotely true.
- Homer
Pi (Score:5, Interesting)
11:15, restate my assumptions: 1. Mathematics is the language of nature. 2. Everything around us can be represented and understood through numbers. 3. If you graph these numbers, patterns emerge. Therefore: There are patterns everywhere in nature.
Re:Pi (Score:2)
3:14. Click Submit
aarch... panic ! (Score:4, Funny)
Is that zero , or zero billion ?
[...head explodes...]
Funny Statistic (Score:5, Funny)
This means that 2/3 of all auto accidents are cause by people who are not high.
We sober people are KILLING each other while the stoners are not.
LK
Re:Funny Statistic (Score:5, Funny)
Not only that (Score:2)
Re:Not only that (Score:2)
I let my cat Toonces do the driving.
http://www.catass.com/toonces/ [catass.com]
Re:Not only that (Score:2)
Toonces! The driving cat! The cat who could drive a car! He drives around...all over the town...Toonces, the driving cat!
Classic, classic stuff.
Re:Funny Statistic (Score:2)
Since marijuana users continue to test positive for @ 30 days after use, what this really means is that 1/3 of all auto accidents involve people who smoke pot, but may or may not have been high during the accident.
"Speed Kills" promo in British Columbia... (Score:3, Interesting)
Re:"Speed Kills" promo in British Columbia... (Score:2)
even worse... (Score:3, Informative)
I recall that statistic, and it's not quite right (though your joke was appreciated nonetheless). That stat, I believe, was that 1/3 of people tested for drugs after a traffic accident tested positive for MJ. That's a bit different.
So, really, what that was testing was the ability of cops to tell what drivers were stoned. And, in this case, there were 2x as many false positives as actual positives.
That stat, brought to us by
Re:Funny Statistic (Score:5, Insightful)
Legality is not morality.
People used to drink also. They drank before prohibition, they drank during prohibition, and they drank after prohibition. The law didn't really change much, other than the fact that the same people went from being law abiding citizens, to criminals who supported the Kaiser (the same old Communist/Terrorist enemy tactic used forever) back to law abiding citizens.
Laws such as this are mainly academic in my opinion.
Re:Funny Statistic (Score:2)
Umm, no. It was NOT illegal to drink liquor during Prohibition. It was illegal to buy, sell, and make it, of course. But it was legal to posses
Re:Funny Statistic (Score:2)
Party's at this guys house! He's got the good shit!
Try this [salon.com] for starters (hint: it was made illegal in the U.S. in 1937). Then, you can move on to this [druglibrary.org] for some more history on the therapeutic uses of cannabis that were taking place centuries before the U.S. government made it illegal (or for that matter, centuries before the U.S. government *existed*)...
Re:Funny Statistic (Score:2)
Civil disobedience baby. It may be illegal, but approximately impossible to enforce. How can someone doing something in their own home with no externally visible effects be apprehended? Good luck with the crusade.
Re:Funny Statistic (Score:4, Informative)
Yes, because everyone who has half a brain and can think critically knows how dangerous marijuana [drugpolicy.org] can be, and that the government would never make illegal [petitiononline.com] something that wasn't dangerous [typepad.com]. They're fully acquainted with what should be illegal [courtneyknapp.com] and what shouldn't [thisistrue.com].
Is it me, or is HTML like the PERFECT language of sarcasm??
Re:As I was being arrested for marijuana possesion (Score:2)
LK
Great (Score:2)
Re:Great (Score:2, Insightful)
They still will not think critically enough to protect themselves from being fooled, on top of which they'll continue to believe whatever makes them comfortable at the moment.
So it'll continue to be more effective for people with an agenda to distort facts and figures, or even simply lie.
Ah statistics and misquotes (Score:2)
Science numbers? What about business numbers? (Score:3, Interesting)
My favourite is "fastest growing." We're always hearing about something being the "fastest growing" but, unless I know whether this is in percentage terms or absolute numbers, I have to write it off as a useless statement.
Re:Science numbers? What about business numbers? (Score:2)
Sure the number is large, but lets look at it as a Percentage.
Re:Science numbers? What about business numbers? (Score:2)
Is it twice as productive? Or half as efficient?
I don't know.
The Media (Score:2, Interesting)
Re:The Media (Score:2, Insightful)
The funny thing is how much more reliable profit-seeking news outlets are than say state-run news outlets. Who here doesn't remember the side-by-side videos of the Ira
Re:The Media (Score:2)
Have you ever watched the BBC? Not bad for a state-run outfit.....
Re:The Media (Score:2)
No, not incompetent or dumb. Just looking for sales/headlines.
FTA:
"...big numbers get headlines while honest uncertainty usually doesn't."
Re:The Media (Score:2)
Re:The Media (Score:2)
*laughter in the audience*
I see plenty of cautions (Score:3, Interesting)
So I looked [google.com] and I couldn't find a single article supporting his claim that it was reported as fact.
Maybe it's The Numbers Guy who abusing facts.
Re:I see plenty of cautions (Score:2, Informative)
Unless you want to debate the meaning of the word "fact".
Skippy
Re:I see plenty of cautions (Score:2)
Although in fairness to the WSJ, the Numbers Guy said "without much caution about how arbitrary it is", not "as a fact".
It happens every day (Score:4, Interesting)
Re:It happens every day (Score:2)
They currently have the total between 15,289 and 17,503.
Re:It happens every day (Score:2, Informative)
http://www.thelancet.com/search/search.i s a
(registration required)
From the article:
"We estimate that 98000 more deaths than expected (8000-194000) happened after the invasion outside of Falluja and far more if the outlier Falluja cluster is included. The major causes of death before the invasion were myocardial infarction, cerebrovascular accidents, and other chronic disorders whereas after the invasion
Re:It happens every day (Score:3, Insightful)
The reaction to the Lancet study was quite interesting; not the back and forth about the validity of the study, but how it changed the way the other major figure, the Iraq Body Count, was viewed. All of a sudden, those who were previously playing down any figures given for civilian deaths, from pundit
quote (Score:2, Insightful)
Of course 70% of statistics are indeed made up.
Not Twain (Score:2)
http://www.bartleby.com/66/99/16799.html
Re:quote (Score:3, Funny)
So are 70% of quotations.
Similar (Score:3, Funny)
How To Lie With Statistics (Score:3, Informative)
And I get a kick out of the illustrations by Irving Geis, even though (or maybe because) they are rather dated in style.
Re:How To Lie With Statistics (Score:2)
A link to the book:
http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/tg/detail/-/039
Hello PR Stunt! (Score:5, Insightful)
But odds are that in todays super-competitive least-necessary-change news market the WSJ has done nothing substantial to improve the accuracy of their paper and instead just inserted a column to improve the image.
Re:Hello PR Stunt! (Score:2)
Disclaimer: I've been a 20+ year WSJ subscriber and had some recent dealings with them [wsj.com] plus a bunch of other media [komar.org] and the difference was night-n-day.
Insightful? Hardly (Score:2)
I think the WSJ is valuable precisely because it doesn't succumb to the sensationalizing impulse that seems to infect so many media outlets today. Many of its stories are informative, balanced and nuanced. For example, see the series of stories on rising health care costs and who gets hurt by the
Re:Hello PR Stunt! (Score:3, Insightful)
Try reading the WSJ someday. Just the little "In The News" grayed-in section on the front page contains more informatio
A Mathematician Reads the Newspaper (Score:5, Informative)
A joke from the past (Score:5, Funny)
Red Dwarf Quote (Score:2)
A BBC Radio series worth listening to.. (Score:5, Informative)
Statistics... (Score:2)
But a billion COULD die ... (Score:3, Informative)
The article is about H5N1, better known as "bird flu." Some important things to know about avian influenza: in the small number of cases we've seen of it, it has a 75% or higher mortality rate (as opposed to 2.5% for the Spanish Flu pandemic of 1918); it is remarkably difficult to create vaccines for it, because it kills the eggs used to create traditional influenza vaccines; the variants we see are amantadine/rimantadine resistant, limiting antiviral treatment options and suggesting significant exchange of genetic material with human influenza viruses; it is pantropic (capable of infecting tissue across the body) in some animals, and both pneumotropic (as all influenza are) and neurotropic in others; and H5N1 is epidemic in Asia amongst many different waterfowl.
So, what we know is that if an H5N1 variant emerges that is human-infectuous and easily transmissible, the chances are very, very high that the resultant pandemic would burn through populations like a wildfire. Furthermore, the chances of this happening are greater than either the appearance of or the damages from various high-profile, high-budget "homeland security" scenarios, such as smallpox (unlikely to occur) or a dirty bomb (more panic than damage).
So, what are the right risk factors? That's hard to say, since it depends on the right mutations being hit. But what we do know is that H5N1 represents at least as dangerous a threat as al-Qaeda.
Straight dope (Score:3, Informative)
For years those sugarless gum commercials have said, "Sugarless gum is recommended by four out of five dentists for their patients who chew gum." What does the fifth dentist recommend? Gum with sugar? --Elizabeth E., Towson, Maryland
Cecil replies:
Oh, sure, Elizabeth, why not? It's like tire dealers scattering tacks on the road. Fact is, the fifth dentist usually recommended no gum at all. Not the kind of advice a chewing-gum company wants to play up real big. The Warner-Lambert Company, makers of Trident sugarless gum, commissioned a market research firm to survey dentists in July 1976. The research people came up with a list of 1,200 dentists who were supposed to represent a cross-section of their profession. The dentists were asked what they recommended to their gum-chewing patients--sugared gum, sugarless gum, or no gum at all. Sugarless gum won with 85 percent. Nobody seems to remember exactly how many votes sugared gum got, but I figure there had to be at least one. Cast by the same guy that in a real election always votes for Donald Duck.
Obligatory Simpsons Quote (Score:2)
Homer: Aw, people can come up with statistics to prove anything, Kent. Forty percent of all people know that.
Kent: I see. Well, what do you say to the accusation that your group has been causing more crimes than it's been preventing?
Homer: [amused] Oh, Kent, I'd be lying if I said my men weren't committing crimes.
Kent: [pause]
Useless information (Score:2)
Here's a classic: about marriages and divorce (Score:3, Interesting)
In the US, 1/2 of all marriages end in divorce.
The correct statistic:
In the US, the annual divorce rate is 1/2 the annual wedding rate.
These are extremely different.
somewhere between 0 and 1 Billion (or more) (Score:2)
Doesn't that pretty much cover most things?
Ob. Quotation (Score:2)
;{)
That's OK... (Score:2)
Re:argh! Statistical abuse! (Score:5, Funny)
Re:I hope (Score:4, Insightful)
A perfectly legal transaction. Like a doctor breaks your leg and then charges you for putting it back together...