Three Reasons Microsoft Paid So 'Little' For Facebook 155
An anonymous reader writes "Microsoft's $240 million investment is much smaller than the rumored $750 million that Facebook sought. Why the difference? Wired Epicenter's Terrence Russell analyzes the deal, and points out three good reasons why Microsoft got a 'bargain'. 'Microsoft Only Needs an Entrenched Position - Ballmer's plan to acquire 100 startups in 5 years is still sketchy, but we got the point -- Microsoft wants momentum. If the company is to go forward as planned then taking a small, strategic piece of Facebook makes sense. Microsoft's financial interests in Facebook's ad platform already exist, so it only makes sense to strengthen that tie as the hype builds.'"
Smart Move? Maybe... (Score:5, Interesting)
If people say "Facebook's the flavor of the month and it's never going to warrant a $15 billion value because the next flavor of the month will come along and steal its thunder," then Microsoft wins because Facebook can never find other investors at that valuation. That creates a cascade effect of investor avoidance, forcing Facebook's actual value down to where it's reasonable and Microsoft can snatch it up at a bargain.
If, on the other hand, people drink the Kool Aid and start pumping up the price of Facebook, Microsoft can sell out its interest at a profit.
I'm thinking the answer is the first possibility... they put Facebook's value at $15 billion to discourage others from investing in Facebook and make Facebook beholden to them.
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Y/N/M?
Facebook == Shot at Adobe's Flash (Score:5, Insightful)
Re:Facebook == Shot at Adobe's Flash (Score:5, Interesting)
Well
Re:Facebook == Shot at Adobe's Flash (Score:5, Interesting)
That makes no sense. There are five things stopping Google from just throwing out a better Office.
This is even less likely to be true than what you said about Google and Office. How is having access to an open version of Flash going to kill the Windows platform? Because you are talking about Flash, that implies that you are talking about web development. The Windows Platform is an operating system. Therefore you are attempting to make the claim that open Flash will allow a third party company (which, by the way, will almost certainly have less manpower and money than Microsoft) to develop some sort of web OS that will render a mature, entrenched desktop OS like Windows obsolete. Actually, lets leave out the mature and entrenched parts of the argument for a moment (although they alone are enough to kil
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How is having access to an open version of Flash going to kill the Windows platform? Because you are talking about Flash, that implies that you are talking about web development. The Windows Platform is an operating system. Therefore you are attempting to make the claim that open Flash will allow a third party company (which, by the way, will almost certainly have less manpower and money than Microsoft) to develop some sort of web OS that will render a mature, entrenched desktop OS like Windows obsolete.
You got most of the way there, but missed it at the end. Who needs a web OS when you can run a flash-based app from any OS you want? Opening Flash gives platforms without Flash the opportunity to make their own ports, which assures widest user base. If it was open it'd also give the assurance that lock-in and corporate bullyism aren't a worry, and it would mean that people could, if they chose, write for Flash using 3rd party non-adobe tools. That would make it VERY attractive to developers.
As Micros [flamingmailbox.com]
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Feasibility of big Flash apps (Score:2)
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By the way, I actually decided to install Silverlight on my XP machine with 512 MB of RAM and a VIA CPU, getting a 'Silverlight is not installable on your PC' error. And no reaso
Re:Smart Move? Maybe... (Score:5, Funny)
Balmer: $750 million dollars?? ****Agrrrrahhahahhahahah***** (throws chair)
Facebook: Ok $240 million could do nicely as well.
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Ballmer's, "we sold at a loss yesterday, were selling at a loss today, we will continue to sell at a loss in the future, because we are rich and can afford to do so", is starting to were pretty thin
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then Microsoft wins because Facebook can never find other investors at that valuation. That creates a cascade effect of investor avoidance, forcing Facebook's actual value down to where it's reasonable and Microsoft can snatch it up at a bargain.
This is such a lame theory, it's not even wrong. Explain to me why these other investors -- who you say are turned off by FB's high valuation -- won't become interested again when the valuation falls?
And exactly what do you mean when you say "forcing Facebook
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If people say "Facebook's the flavor of the month and it's never going to warrant a $15 billion value because the next flavor of the month will come along and steal its thunder," then Microsoft wins because Facebook can never find other investors at that valuation. That creates a cascade effect of investor avoidance, forcing Facebook's actual value down to where it's reasonable and Microsoft can snatch it up at a bargain.
Actually if I could I'd be tempted to invest in Facebook. MS only got a 1.6% stak
Re:Smart Move? Maybe... (Score:4, Insightful)
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Would that even be legally enforceable? A 1.6% stake in Facebook hardly gives them the right to control how Facebook sells off the remaining 98.4%.
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As long as FaceBook signed the contract with that provision, it would be enforceable, even if Microsoft was buying a 0.0001% stake. The size of the stake doesn't matter. The terms of the contract do. And when there's $240 million on the table, making your company worth $15 billion, feeding your self-confidence and giving you delisions of invulnerability an
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Oops, that makes sense. I was thinking of it as though it were a publicly traded company, in which case there wouldn't be a contract of sale of that kind and you couldn't make such restrictions. Although, if it were publicly traded, Facebook couldn't then dictate the share price!
Buy low... (Score:2)
Simple really.
Re:Buy low... (Score:5, Funny)
$240,000,000 and you folks say that's a bargain? If I had $240,000,000 I sure wouldn't blow it on a website! I'd blow it on fast cars and expensive booze and hookers. Hell, I'd stick it in the bank at 5% interest and blow the $12,000,000 interest on fast cars and expensive booze and hookers every single year and leave the whole $240,000,000 to my kids. Come to think of it, if I had that kind of money I wouldn't NEED hookers!
I might even buy an iPhone, too.
-mcgrew
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http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=95fNgx8aCS8 [youtube.com]
-Stor
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The most expensive piece of ass I ever had cost me a house, a car, and part of my pension.
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-Bateman
p.s. At least I got a reservation at Dorsia.
Facebook has already "jumped the shark" (Score:1, Insightful)
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Re:Facebook has already "jumped the shark" (Score:5, Insightful)
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From a business perspective, the company I consult/work for has over 500 employees. Almost all have AIM (some have Microsoft messenger, some have Yahoo) and most of us use Trillian (as it's lightweight and integrates with several different IM networks).
Don't tr
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That's right, blame the users.
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???
Social networking sites are pretty much the perfect example of stickiness...
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Social networking sites are easy. Let people join, let them interconnect with each other, and then let them interact with each other. The rest is just code.
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Title is misleading (Score:5, Informative)
Re:Title is misleading (Score:4, Informative)
Plans... (Score:4, Interesting)
What kind of a plan is that? No wonder Microsoft is losing its way.
Compare and contrast with the business plan of Steve Jobs, which I think can be summed up as "make great products"...
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Look, Microsoft seems to be focusing on branching out, trying to reclaim more of the search market and pushing silverlight hard. While this is definitely a good thing, what isn't a good thing is when said company neglects their core business. Windows IS that core
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A bigger threat to their revenues is the competition around Microsoft Office. If there is no incompatible format such as
I do think that the competition isn't ready yet to win over Ms Word, Excel or Powerpoint (and I do use OpenOffice because my latop has only MS word installed and I don't need to buy the whole MS office suite). Whatever yo
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Re:Plans... (Score:4, Informative)
Since when? I was always under the impression it was "sell over priced gadgets to trend whores", or "hire a great marketing dept".
It's premature to claim Apple's strategy superior (Score:2)
What kind of a plan is that? No wonder Microsoft is losing its way. Compare and contrast with the business plan of Steve Jobs, which I think can be summed up as "make great products"...
Microsoft has been buying things for decades and has about 90% marketshare. Apple has made great products for decades and has around 5% marketshare. Apple has had great success with new products in the past (Apple II, Mac) only to eventually lose the
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Profits are good, don't get me wrong, but what investors want is growth. Over the last year AAPL has been a very good investment. MSFT, not so much.
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Yes, the past few years have not been that good to be an investor in Microsoft stock, but for the long term investor Apple has a long way to go to catch up.
Re:Plans... (Score:4, Informative)
But over the last five years, Apple stock has been +2270%, vs Microsoft +21%.
An in the last ten years, Apple stock has been +4314%, vs Microsoft +89%.
What "long term investors" would prefer to have been sitting on MSFT?
Microsoft has 80,000 employees, +95% market share, and competes in businesses outside of Apple, which only has 18,000 employees and ~3% worldwide market share. However, Apple is bringing in more than a third of Microsoft's revenues and making more than a quarter of Microsoft's profits, and is selling new Macs--which eat up direct sales of Windows PCs--four times faster than the industry.
So Apple is doing good.
Microsoft exploded in the 90s, reached supernova in 2000, and has been flat as a pancake ever since. Apple exploded in the early 80s and ran into problems in the mid 90s, but recovered during the dotcom years and has been among few tech companies to wildly outperform its 2000-era peak. Microsoft certainly hasn't.
Apple doesn't have any catching up to do; it was already a high flying major company when Microsoft went public in 1986. Seriously, what "long term investors" have been holding Microsoft stock since 1986 apart from Bill Gates?
What has Microsoft done for you lately?
How Microsoft Got Its Office Monopoly [roughlydrafted.com]
What You Expected, What You Got: Windows Vista Vs Mac OS X Leopard [roughlydrafted.com]
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Me, for one. I invest for life. I'm looking ahead to retirement, not a 1 year or 5 year return. That's short term in most investor's eyes. So far MSFT has given me a far better RoR than Apple has. (yes, I have both stocks in my portfolio).
Seriously, what "long term investors" have been holding Microsoft stock since 1986 apart from Bill Gates?
Had it in my portfolio since the early 90's. It has made a great many people rich, not just
Longer Term (Score:2)
Ten years ago Apple was in the extreme doldrums. Why not take a longer view [yahoo.com]?
For most of its public lifetime, Apple has underperformed S&P500 *and* NASDAQ. In fact, relative to the broad stock market averages, Aaple has regained the outperform level that it held back in 1992. That's progress, of a sort.
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We could do this all day, but the fact of the matter is that Microsoft hasn't grown in five years, nor is it likely to grow any time soon. If you want to keep your money in MSFT, that's fine, but the glory days are long gone.
Plan to acquire 100 start ups (Score:1)
I'm reminded of an editorial comic where someone creates a personal website for his cat and gets 10 million dollars in investment because he's visionary -- in effect, it's a parody of the .com bubble -- which Microsoft will fund.
I need to get cracking if I'm to get my $240 million...
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Damn, I need to update my blagh! [mcgrew.info]
-mcgrew
facebook my ass (Score:1, Interesting)
Frankly, if you're not a moron, or some attention whoring pre-schooler, I don't s
Re:facebook my ass (Score:5, Funny)
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So you came back to
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No, it's not less creepy.
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Example: My wife signed up a few weeks ago because she saw that I had been talking to old high school friends. Within days
Re:facebook my ass (Score:5, Insightful)
Why is any of that desirable? Honestly. I graduated from high-school in 1993, and I have a current e-mail address and phone number for the dozen-or-so people who still matter to me from those days. When we move, change contact information, or whatever, we send our little group a quick notification, and life moves on. Why on Earth would I want to be contacted out of the blue fifteen years later by someone who probably hasn't crossed my mind since graduation night (or insert whatever non-school equivalent event suits your purpose)?
An example: my sister is a member. Perhaps six months ago, one of my first real girlfriends from the ninth grade in 1989 sent her a message asking how to find me on Facebook, so that we could catch up. Catch up with what? We haven't spoken in *at least* ten years, and she's apparently churned out a few kids in her mining-town trailer park about a thousand miles from here. We're total strangers by this point with utterly nothing in common, and yet people find it scintillating to imagine this kind of scenario through the magic of Facebook? "So, how have the last ten years of your life been? Oh, fifty pounds you've put on... isn't that something? Four kids? Fantastic." Is that what they call a "reconnection?" No thanks.
Maybe I'm just not much of a sentimental, but if a friendship hasn't stood the tests of time organically, why should I suddenly be excited to drag the corpse up out of its well-deserved grave with Facebook? Some of my closest friends live hundreds of miles away, yet we stay close because of things in common and, you know, other friendship qualities. The most important of these is a willingness to put a little, tiny bit of work into actually being a friend. Maybe that means visiting every couple years, or maybe it's even something as small as keeping my phone number and e-mail information written down somewhere and using either or both from time to time. I do those things for them. Relationships that don't have those qualities are about the last things I want to pursue, and Facebook seems to make it way too easy to be a "friend" without being a friend.
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I've "met" a half dozen people from my high school days. And beyond the initial "hey!" messages on Facebook we haven't spoken or written a word since. We weren't really friends then, and we're not now. Just because we went through the same schools and happen to know each others names and faces, doesn't make us "friends."
And the couple of friends I did make in college and since, I'm in touch with outside of "the net." If I want to know what my friends are up to I just call them and drop by.
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There was no post-secondary school anywhere near my hometown. We all scattered and we all moved and so we all fell out of touch at once. Our old phone numbers were no longer valid (those few with cellphones got a number local to their new locale). Too many of them had their ema
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Only when you go beyond the cognitive dissonance involved in equating "Why should I keep up with my high-school friends?" with "Why should I contact
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We don't know each other very well yet, so I'll start at the beginning. In early 1962 an egg was fertilized and later that same year some masked guy in a white uniform slapped me in the face (I can't remember if I came out backwards or if that was the origin of the Dangerfield joke).
[...]
I joined Slashdot.
What's new with you these days?
Paul
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So because you can think of one person who you don't want to get in contact with, therefore you cannot understand that other people might have known someone they would like to get in contact with? Are you really that stupid. I myself have a load of friends who I don't contact very much anym
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I don't know you, and I really couldn't care less what you do, but I do feel some strange camaraderie based upon our shared gender alone. So, I'll leave you with thi
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There is no answer that could be of any value to you. Your mind is made up based on your own view that if a relationship hasn't stood the test of time its no longer of any value to go there again.
But, I'll bite. There are millions of reasons that people get separated and I certainly will not get into this specific example. Not all past relationships have ended do to boredom or differences of personality or other negative things like breakups with past girlfriends. Some
Its not for you, laddie (Score:2)
Re:facebook my ass (Score:5, Insightful)
As for Facebook, if you join it, to socialize with your friends, it's completely different. Make an account, find people you actually know on it, add them as friends and login maybe once a week or so. Suddenly your actually able to keep up to date on those 10-15 people without having to call them weekly to find out whats going on. Sure some people freak out about this vast amount of stuff I can find out that your doing, but I only know about it because you posted it on there for the world to see.
I rarely join the groups on facebook, and when I do, I do so with a grain of salt realizing a digital group like that that is rather pointless in the first place. However the ability to add a study group or other real life type groups and post discussions, share meeting times and plans, as well as see everyones class schedule on there. That's what makes facebook useful.
This is why we need to stop putting myspace and facebook into the same group. They really aren't as similar as people keep saying they are. Facebook is for people already with friends that want to keep in touch easier, MySpace is a network for meeting new people and getting new connections.
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The demographics of Facebook has changed quite dramatically in the past few months. I have met a large number of people with whom I have lost touch over the years, people I wouldn't drive many hours to go visit with for a 3 hours "reunion", but I'd gladly swap 30 second synopses of the 20 years since our last conversation. Facebook is pretty cool for that. The fact that you didn't find groups that you can associate with either means that you were there a lo
It's not called ANTIsocial networking! (Score:2)
Yeah I know. It's terrible isn't it? MySpace and Slashdot are so much better...oh, wait...
Nobody takes any of the serious chatter serious, and the fun chatter is just asinine
Thanks for the chuckle. I always get a kick out of people who criticise the grammar of posts in an online forum and make mistakes themselves, especially when they're given ample opportunity to proofread their postings as can be done
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I mean Nobody takes any of the serious chatter serious, and the fun chatter is just asinine
Seriously folks I'm not a grammar-nazi. I am a grammar-nazi nazi, so don't go criticising my grammar now m'kay?
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But given you know jack all about my life, I won't take your "pity" at any value other than a passing sentiment no more important than a smile at a cute girl at the cinema. (i.e., after this post I won't think abo
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If you're going to associate things, make sure they're at least comparable.
And slashdot isn't full of little kids, it's full of angry depressed A-type personalities who think the "Internet Meanie/Tough Guy (tm)" routine is original. That they have to be pricks to feel good about themselves... On facebook they're not overtly mean, just really st
240 mil is not a serious ownership (Score:2)
Microsoft (Score:5, Funny)
Microsoft corollary: Unless it's Microsoft then never ascribed to incompetence or bad management what can adequately explained by pure unrelenting evil.
Re:Microsoft (Score:5, Insightful)
The man on the street says.... (Score:5, Funny)
Man #2 - Redacted, turned out to actually be a woman
Man #3 - Wasn't this the MS business plan since way back in the early 90s? This is news?
Man #4 - (claiming to be spouse of man #2) Is there really 100 startups worth buying? I thought the venture capitalists were becoming a bit put off on the whole tech thing?
Man #5 - (throws a chair) MS will buy 100 startups if they have to secretly pay those companies to start up... MS will kill the competition in the buying startups sector!!
Man #6 - Will they support iTunes?
Man #7 - (dubiously wearing a
Man #8 - Shouts "Sorry, have to run and go start a company......"
Seriously, 100 startups? Why not 49? Why not 'as many as it takes'... what is the deal with 100? Microsoft begins with an M, why not 1000 startups?
wise investment (Score:1)
Math issues?? (Score:2)
But, that's exactly what they did do. They paid $250Million for a 1.6% stake in the company. That means it values the whole company at $15.6Billion.
If they had negotiated it down, and got maybe 20% of the company for $500M. Then, they wouldn't have bought into the valuation.. that would have said it's worth $2.5B.
But, the math says MS thinks Facebook is worth $15Billion. I thi
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What does 1.6% get MS? (Score:2)
To me 1.6% does not signify any 'controlling' percentage, maybe gadfly status...
MS want to buy 100 startups? (Score:2)
Enter M$, Let The Suckiness Commence (Score:2, Funny)
Microsoft's 'Innovation' at work (Score:3, Insightful)
I think a perfect settlement would have been for Microsoft to continue business as normal and innovate all they want, the only restriction being that they not be allowed to buy any more companies. If they are this magnificent well of innovation and ideas, go ahead, show us. 8 years later, with effectively no penalties actually imposed on this company, the best they come up with is a plan to buy 100 web companies in the next 5 years.
What innovations have we had from Microsoft in the last 8 years?
Prior to that we have web based email (HotMail), web browsers,
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Its a fad thats going to go over. (Score:2)
That's a funny take on the sale... (Score:3, Interesting)
Surely ... (Score:3, Funny)
what if google goes and buys the whole thing (Score:2)
I wish Facebook and MySpace would join..... (Score:3, Funny)
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