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Media Technology

NPD Group Says "Wait! HD-DVD Isn't Dead Yet" 279

Posted by ScuttleMonkey from the get-on-the-cart dept.
The NPD group, owners of the not-quite-as-popular-as-they-had-hoped HD-DVD format, attempted to battle back against the tide of "naysayers" who claim that the format war is over and have declared Blu-Ray Disc the winner. "While select articles have implied that HD-DVD as a format is doomed and the sky is falling for the format's supporters, the NPD Group this afternoon reinforced that sales results from a single week do not necessarily indicate a trend, and that the week in question had several intriguing variables that have gone unreported."
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NPD Group Says "Wait! HD-DVD Isn't Dead Yet" More

NPD Group Says "Wait! HD-DVD Isn't Dead Yet"

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  • A Modest Proposal (Score:3, Insightful)

    by divide overflow ( 599608 ) on Saturday January 26, 2008 @05:28AM (#22191810)
    If the NPD Group really wants to shake things up they ought to offer free HD-DVD licenses.

    • Re:A Modest Proposal (Score:5, Interesting)

      by BosstonesOwn ( 794949 ) on Saturday January 26, 2008 @05:56AM (#22191912)
      They need to get burners to market in mass quantity as well as offer those licenses for free or very very small royalties.

      Like pennies per unit. Plus they need to get the consumer on their side. The more hd-dvd players out there the more the industry has to listen. Unfortunately with the economy tanking this is hard. Right now I personally would put money making on the back burner and just look to break even. Make hd-dvd discs cheaper to buy then a normal dvd and make the players cheaper. At that point this whole thing can turn around , with consumer demand the studios have to listen. If smaller studios stick to the format then there really can be a price market , smaller studios usually make lower cost films and don't need to recoup so much back.

      The reason I say they need burners in high volume asap, is that whether they like it or not piracy is often times a real boost to sales. It's been proven that it helps.( http://www.stargeek.com/item/41324.html [stargeek.com] ) ( http://techrepublic.com.com/5208-6230-0.html?forumID=102&threadID=243454 [com.com] )

      The american and canadian dbs providers , even cable can thank piracy for large subscriber growth. They really should get those burners out in high volumes fast.

      • Re: (Score:2)

        by Z00L00K ( 682162 )

        The reason I say they need burners in high volume asap, is that whether they like it or not piracy is often times a real boost to sales.

        And don't forget about "nature films" and the purpose of using the media/format for computer data backup, even if it is insufficient for larger volumes today.

      • The reason I say they need burners in high volume asap, is that whether they like it or not piracy is often times a real boost to sales
        Forget volume, they need to make a decent burner, period. [engadget.com]

      • Comment removed (Score:4, Interesting)

        by account_deleted ( 4530225 ) on Saturday January 26, 2008 @07:38AM (#22192298)
        Comment removed based on user account deletion

        • Re: (Score:3, Interesting)

          by ZorinLynx ( 31751 )
          >Blu-Ray at this point is simply too expensive to be any good for backups

          Just wait a little longer. If history teaches us anything, it's that tech never stays expensive for long.

          And consider hard drives for backups. Less expensive per gig, faster, and more versatile.

        • Re: (Score:2)

          by LWATCDR ( 28044 )

          I would say it isn't piracy at all.
          There are more and more HD DVD camcorders coming on the market.
          A lot of people don't want to watch them on a computer.
          Actually HD-DVD needs only one thing to beat BlueRay.
          An HD-DVD player for under $100.
          I don't know anybody that has a BlueRay player that isn't in a PS3. I only know one person that has a PS3. I am the only person I know that has an HD-DVD player.

          Well the real way that HD-DVD can win would be to get Nintendo to put one in the Wii and keep the cost at where i

        • Re: (Score:3, Insightful)

          by ColdWetDog ( 752185 )

          Blu-Ray at this point is simply too expensive to be any good for backups,at least for me. And I care more about burning my own media than I do about formats, which is why I and a LOT of people I know are sticking with DVD.And let us not forget that the cheapness of digicams and other forms of user content creation.

          I'm genuinely curious - why are you (and just about every other geek who just doesn't want to back up his porn collection) so interested in an untested format for archival purposes? DVDs and CD

      • Make hd-dvd discs cheaper to buy then a normal dvd and make the players cheaper. At that point this whole thing can turn around , with consumer demand the studios have to listen.

        I would settle for HD-DVD disc being the same price as DVD. I think that would help give the industry the shot in the arm it needs. But right now I have to pay $25 for Top Gun on HD-DVD. That's too much for my Maverick fix.

      • Re: (Score:3, Funny)

        by morari ( 1080535 )
        Well, I can assure you that without a solid method of piracy I won't be switching over from DVD films any time soon. NetFlix, a spindle of blank discs, and a few mouse clicks per film has increased my collection exponentially. :P

    • Comment removed (Score:5, Informative)

      by account_deleted ( 4530225 ) on Saturday January 26, 2008 @06:52AM (#22192138)
      Comment removed based on user account deletion

    • Re: (Score:2)

      by Lumpy ( 12016 )
      And convince the consumers that paying 2X the price of a normal DVD is worth it.

  • Why the hate? (Score:2, Insightful)

    by Berkyjay ( 1225604 )
    So does everyone here hate HD DVD because of some orrational hatred of Microsoft? I personally like HD DVD for it's cheaper price and the lack of heavy handed tactics used to try and force us all to convert. One of us. One of us. One of us.

    • Might as well ask the same in reverse (Score:5, Insightful)

      by SmallFurryCreature ( 593017 ) on Saturday January 26, 2008 @05:49AM (#22191882) Journal

      So do you hate BluRay because of some irrational hatred of Sony? I personally like BluRay because it comes free with a PS3 and the lack of have handed tactics by MS (such as buying support) used to try and force us all to convert. One of us. One of us. One of us.

      Frankly if you want to look at the sides involved you could at most choose the lesser of two evils, lets see who is the convicted monopolist again? Who is the rootkit company again? Who insist on ignoring standards and enforcing their own inferior solutions on the public?

      Sorry, this format war was about the difference between Jack Johnson and John Jackson. If the parties involved had been smart they would simply have merged their products and saved everyone a lot of trouble.

      Oh and I don't hate MS, I just don't trust them, they got a very long history of lying to serve their own goals. Sony does the same, but I have never ever been forced to use a Sony product that was riddled with bugs. Can you say the same for MS?

      • I do hate Microsoft, and rejoice when ever that slimy company fails at anything. I I said in my previous post to the earlier article that was modded down to ( -1 Flaimbait ) by the M$ faithful zombies, "Good (it's dead), Fuck Microsoft".

        Ahhh, I feel better now.

         
    • first, it seems like there were extremely heavy handed tactics used by MS to, once again, damage a market and exploit it.

      I don't think there is anything irrational in resisting Microsoft doing for the umpteenth time what they have done over and over before. They don't want HD-DVD to succeed, they want the consumers to be confused and screwed until their internet distro takes off.

      And cheaper for early adopters is a piss poor reason to pick a standard. It's pretty obvious that both blu-ray and hd-dvd are pl
      • I think it will be quite a while before internet distribution of HD movies will take off. The infrastructure won't be able to support everybody downloading Shrek IV on release day. Having a physical product has some advantages. You can stockpile them, and then when they are ready for release, they can be distributed extremely quickly. With bandwidth, you can't stock pile it for later. If 1,000,000 people go to download Shrek IV on release day, the server will be fried. Just look at how well Wii Shop c

    • So does everyone here hate HD DVD because of some orrational hatred of Microsoft? I
      I "hate" it because it's dead. If it would have been successful I would have been behind it. I almost thought it was last August when Paramount went exclusive... but it's over now and any foot-dragging on Toshiba/Microsoft's part just delays the production of quality content being distributed to the masses.

    • Re: (Score:2)

      by Ilgaz ( 86384 ) *

      So does everyone here hate HD DVD because of some orrational hatred of Microsoft? I personally like HD DVD for it's cheaper price and the lack of heavy handed tactics used to try and force us all to convert.

      One of us.
      One of us.
      One of us.

      OS X, the de facto standard on Movie production doesn't have any kind of HD-DVD support. Nothing. XCode is there, driverkit, quicktime SDK, extensive documentation, top class developer accounts, the fact of being number 1 mac software vendor.

      Where is HDVD support for OS X?

      Why a rich consumer (not pro) can write BluRay discs via Toast+BluRay firewire recorder but professionals can't? Because there is Microsoft involved. Basic. If you start a new system, format, go with a real professional company who actual

      • Re: (Score:2)

        by antek9 ( 305362 )
        And, because Apple is part of the BluRay group.
      • OS X, the de facto standard on Movie production doesn't have any kind of HD-DVD support.

        O RLY? [apple.com]:

        Versatile DVD Mastering

        Whether you burn a one-off disc on your Mac Pro or send a title out for commercial replication, you can have confidence that your DVDs will play back on a wide range of set-top players and computers. Burn your own discs in a wide variety of formats, including double-layer DVDs. For commercial replication, choose one of the traditional red laser formats or double the capacity on your HD DVD d
    • I pretty much like it less because it's a lossy HD format that has a lower video bitrate. If we're going lossy here, I want the highest bitrate possible. This is HD, we're not supposed to see artifacts anymore. I want to see the least amount possible. I really don't care that it doesn't have a DVD side, I don't care about any interactive features, I just want a really good looking movie.
    • Comment removed based on user account deletion

      • Re: (Score:2)

        by Malc ( 1751 )
        To most movie watchers, HD DVD offers no more than BD. At this point it is really no more capable than BD. In the past it could do secondary video. So what? I guess right now they can AACS protect more things on the disc besides the video streams, and they can AACS protect downloads (coming to BD anyway)... but I know how supportive you are of that.
    • I hate HD DVD + Blu-Ray. That is I hate the format war aspect of hidef movie playback. The sooner one of these dies, the better. I don't give a rat's ass which. Since it looks like HD-DVD is on life support I am all in favor of pulling the plug as soon as possible.

      People trying to keep a dying format going are supporting a destructive format war and should rethink their lives.

      Seriously, why bother? Few studios are going to make HD-DVD releases any more. Why feed a dead horse?

       

    • Re: (Score:2)

      by DrXym ( 126579 )
      It's cheaper because Toshiba are using about the only weapon they can muster against Blu Ray - subsidizing the cost of the player. They have that luxury since they monopolize the format and the players.

      Blu Ray might be predominantly a Sony standard, but the BDA represents virtually the entire electronics industry. Blu Ray players have been selling at their real prices because members of the BDA want to make money. There is no reason Samnsung, Philips etc. is going to sell a player below cost. I suspect ev

  • A customer enters a multimedia shop.

    Customer: 'Ello, I wish to register a complaint.

    (The owner does not respond.)

    C: 'Ello, Miss?

    Owner: What do you mean "miss"?

    C: I'm sorry, I have a cold. I wish to make a complaint!

    O: We're closin' for lunch.

    C: Never mind that, my lad. I wish to complain about this hd-dvd what I purchased not half an hour ago from this very boutique.

    O: Oh yes, the, uh, the format...What's,uh...What's wrong with it?

    C: I'll tell you what's wrong with it, my lad. 'E's dead, that's wh

    • Re: (Score:3, Insightful)

      by stormguard2099 ( 1177733 )
      I think the correct answer is a shorter quote...
    • Actually, this calls for...

      HD-DVD:
      I'm not dead!
      CART MASTER:
      'Ere. He says he's not dead!
      CUSTOMER:
      Yes, he is.
      HD-DVD:
      I'm not!
      CART MASTER:
      He isn't?
      CUSTOMER:
      Well, he will be soon. He's very ill.
      HD-DVD:
      I'm getting better!
      CUSTOMER:
      No, you're not. You'll be stone dead in a moment.

  • Bad Summary, NPD Doesn't Own HD-DVD (Score:5, Informative)

    by rsmith-mac ( 639075 ) on Saturday January 26, 2008 @05:41AM (#22191854)
    The summary is partially incorrect. The NPD Group [wikipedia.org] is a research firm, they do not own the HD-DVD format or anything close to it. The closest thing to HD-DVD's owners would be the DVD Forum [wikipedia.org], which is a consortium of companies.

    The reason NPD is involved in this is because they are one of the big research firms for tracking sales data. NPD is the firm that released the earlier reporting talking about HD-DVD hardware sales slowing [slashdot.org] and this is a clarification of that. They are pointing out that one week's results can not be extrapolated to argue that HD-DVD is dying/dead like many people did, it's too short of a time period in a week with several unusual variables.
  • The NPD group are not the owners of the HD-DVD format, they are a market research company. Toshiba is a major client so statements from NPD in regard to HD-DVD should be taken with a grain of salt.
  • NPD group is not an owner of the HD-DVD format. They are just a bunch of market analysts who provide information to retailers. See their website : http://www.npd.com/corpServlet?nextpage=profile_s.html [npd.com]

  • Not dead yet! (Score:4, Funny)

    by Darkman, Walkin Dude ( 707389 ) on Saturday January 26, 2008 @06:00AM (#22191924) Homepage

    It wants to go for a walk!

  • Not so fast... (Score:5, Interesting)

    by Anonymous Coward on Saturday January 26, 2008 @06:02AM (#22191932)
    As an insider I can attest to the fact that the online world has been nailed by one of the most successful viral marketing campaigns ever waged in a digital format war. An unnamed company (or three) got together before the recent announcement by Warner Bros in the weeks before CES to orchestrate this domino effect. The game plan was, in a nutshell, that Warner Bros would announce their support for Blu-Ray (even though they will continue to make HD-DVD for some time) and their subsidiaries would follow closely with announcements. Then it was revealed that Walt Disney Studios Home Entertainment and Twentieth Century-Fox Home Entertainment would reaffirm their commitment to the format. This information was fed into the biggest gadget blogs with the underlying message that the war is over. This was parroted near verbatim by submissions to all of the major technology and social bookmarking sites. Major audio video forums had been primed with posters working for the viral marketing firms employed to pull this off. Overnight every major site on the internet along with mainstream media was singing the Blu-Ray song. To make sure the statistics following CES would confirm the "Blu-Ray has won" story manufacturers were heavily discounting Blu-Ray players. This week, much to no ones surprise, this came true.

    So why am I sharing this? I am firmly in the Blu-Ray camp but the techniques employed in this war have been rather unethical. Which blog or news agency will be the first to hunt down the facts in this story to confirm my story?

    Don't buy it? Then read this article on TechChrunch [techcrunch.com] which describes the same techniques used to market viral videos.

    • Re:Not so fast... (Score:4, Insightful)

      by feepness ( 543479 ) on Saturday January 26, 2008 @06:20AM (#22192000)

      As an insider I can attest to the fact that the online world has been nailed by one of the most successful viral marketing campaigns ever waged in a digital format war. An unnamed company (or three) got together before the recent announcement by Warner Bros in the weeks before CES to orchestrate this domino effect.
      I heard they also flew a missile into the Pentagon. Did you know that a real airliner couldn't have made that hole and that they stole all the tapes of the event?
    • How in the world is this unethical?

      Are you insane? Warner moving over was a big deal, so why not maximize the news?

      HD-DVD players are absurdly discounted, and the sales figures are cited with as much attention as the DVD forum can muster. But when blu-ray players do the same this is somehow wrong? Why?

      Blu-ray won. Better business plan. They got the right partners, had their discounts at the right time, and the customer clearly prefers it. They masterfully communicated the truth: that the war is over.

      S

    • Re:Not so fast... (Score:5, Insightful)

      by RedWizzard ( 192002 ) on Saturday January 26, 2008 @06:42AM (#22192108)
      Whether all the press has been orchestrated or not is largely irrelevant. What is relevant is that Blu-ray has the majority of the studio support and has the higher market share. An undecided buyer would have to be pretty brave to bet on HD-DVD at this point.

      • Re: (Score:3, Informative)

        by olman ( 127310 )
        Except that by buying HD-DVD player you get cheap upscaling DVD player that can play HD discs as a bonus.

        Not much bravery required. It's not like the player stops working if some studio stops supporting it.

        • Wow I can pay triple the cost for an upscaling DVD player that also plays disks I'll not be able to find in a year? Where do I sign up?

        • Re: (Score:2)

          by samkass ( 174571 )
          Except that by buying HD-DVD player you get cheap upscaling DVD player that can play HD discs as a bonus. ... just like you get with a Blu-Ray player, except that you get more choice for your HD discs and you'll still be able to buy them in 2 years. There are no players of either format I know of that don't do DVD upscaling.

      • "An undecided buyer would have to be pretty brave to bet on HD-DVD at this point."

        Why is that? You can get an HD-DVD player now with 7 films for the same price as 7 bluray films without a player here in the UK. The Bluray player costs an extra £250 on top so that's a pretty big difference for now. Even if HD-DVDs stop being produced you've still got 7 high def films and a nice upscaling DVD player.

        Even if HD-DVD is dead, the current deal on Toshiba's low end player is hard to argue against because you

    • Re: (Score:2)

      by Z00L00K ( 682162 )
      As the statement goes "All's fair in love and war.".

      Just go figure what this is about...

    • Comment removed based on user account deletion

    • Re: (Score:2)

      by Sleepy ( 4551 )
      Yes, you are from BlueRay and you're giving us the "inside scoop" how unethical they are.

      Suuuuurre. Here's why I think you are full of shit:

      In CHRONOLOGICAL order:

      1) HD-DVD breaks away from BluRay group. Attempts to reconcile were almost successful but one of the large breakaway companies refused. Some say that this company was Microsoft..

      2) HD-DVD group skewed statistics and manipulated the media in ways BluRay did not.

      A typical pro-HD-DVD story would:
      * tout HD-DVD players as selling MORE UNITS and with fa

    • I thought you'd get modded down - I'm glad it's not so. The overwhelming reaction of the online community over the Warner announcement made me very angry as it was clear it was the phraseology of the news titles, fueling the fanboys, that was causing significantly more damage than the announcement itself.

      This alone gave the fanboys more reason to troll 'the war is over' in such force and with such conviction as never before.

      Why was this so out of place with fanboys, nearly the ultimate of online extremi

      • HD DVD and Blu ray are media formats:

        2007 Overall MEdia Sales Ratio

        US 2 BD : 1 HD DVD (peaking for hd dvd at about 5:3)
        JP 9 BD : 1 HD DVD
        UK 4 BD : 1 HD DVD

        Unfortunately for your rant, It does not seem that the support for bluray is engineered hype. There was never a close race except sort of in the US. The gambit for the next format was decided very early and all the rest was just the elaborate death throes of one format.
  • HD-DVD can make a comeback. How, you ask? Make it a DRM-free format :)
     
    While I'm dreaming, I'd like an F-15.
  • Both formats are dead. Neither will come up to the level of success that DVD has had.

    Several reasons:

    • Pricing is a lot higher - higher than what the provided quality actually provides. (OK, DVD:s suffered from the same in the beginning)
    • They have competition from the classic DVD:s and need a real smash hit on blue-ray/HD-DVD only to really get going.
    • The competition from the net is a factor to count on. Today you can download and play on your PC and monitors are available at 1920/1200 for a reasonable pr

    • Comment removed (Score:4, Informative)

      by account_deleted ( 4530225 ) on Saturday January 26, 2008 @07:16AM (#22192222)
      Comment removed based on user account deletion
      • Your last point is just untrue. An 8Gb SD card costs a minimum of $50 at the moment, compared to a dual layer DVD-R which is generally much lower than a dollar

        Actually, 8GB SD cards are commonly available for $30-35 these days.

        In terms of backup, though, it's not SD cards that optical media has to contend with. Hard drives are cheaper per megabyte than either HD formats currently and even if that changes optical still sucks as a backup medium. Write speed on current burners is 9MB/s (hour and a half to wr

      • Re: (Score:2)

        by Malc ( 1751 )
        Ethernet is only a requirement for BDLive capable players. It's not a spec requirement for all players though. And it's nothing new - that item has been in the spec for profile 2.0 players for a long time (my copy of the BD spec from nearly two years ago has it).

  • Just dreaming of Norway (Score:3, Funny)

    by Cannelloni ( 969195 ) on Saturday January 26, 2008 @06:38AM (#22192096)
    It not dead yet, just resting and dreaming of Norway.

  • Black Knight (Score:4, Funny)

    by zepo1a ( 958353 ) on Saturday January 26, 2008 @07:44AM (#22192320)
    Blu-Ray: You fight with the strength of many men, HD-DVD. [Slashes HD-DVD's arm off]
    HD-DVD: 'Tis but a scratch.
    Blu-Ray: A scratch? Your arm's off!
    HD-DVD: No, it isn't.
    BLU-RAY: Victory is mine! We thank Thee Lord, that in Thy mer--
    HD-DVD: Hah! [kick] Come on, then. Have at you!

  • The war is over. (Score:4, Funny)

    by foxtrot ( 14140 ) on Saturday January 26, 2008 @09:30AM (#22192720)
    You can talk about sales rates or attach rates or how much shelf space is dedicated to blue boxes as opposed to red boxes, you can talk about technical merit or political merit, you can talk about studios committing to or being bought out by one side or another. You can talk about all number of things, but I know the war is over.

    Blu-ray wins. I know this to be true.

    I know this because sitting on the shelf underneath my teevee is a Toshiba HD-A3.

  • I am a Blu-Ray supporter, but it isn't just last week's hardware sales that where down -- HD-DVD disc sales have plummeted as well for the last two weeks, loosing by more than 5:1 for both weeks. You might get a bump in hardware sales as players are slashed to ridiculously low closeout prices, but the war is over. Lots of people will pick them up as upconverting dvd players and then buy dirt cheep discs on Ebay as some people try to unload their HD-DVD collections, but you will never see HD-DVD get past

  • Futureproof the discs (Score:3, Interesting)

    by Xian97 ( 714198 ) on Saturday January 26, 2008 @02:09PM (#22194580)
    HD DVD has the ability to press a DVD and HD DVD on a disc. I would start including the HD DVD version on every standard DVD. Anyone that doesn't have an HDTV but is planning on getting one sometime in the future can still continue to build their DVD collection, and then enjoy them in HD when they upgrade. That will also provide an incentive to upgrade.

    There are still a lot of people out there that do not have the equipment to play either Blu-Ray or HD DVD. Since I work in the tech field, most of my coworkers do, but there are only two of us in my neighborhood that have HDTV. I am the only one in my immediate family that has HDTV as well. Not having to worry about your DVD collection being obsolete by having the HD DVD version as well would be a good selling point.

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