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Businesses Microsoft The Almighty Buck

Ballmer Says Amazon Isn't a "Real Business" 283

theodp writes According to Steve Ballmer, Amazon.com is not a real business. "They make no money," Ballmer said on the Charlie Rose Show. "In my world, you're not a real business until you make some money. I have a hard time with businesses that don't make money at some point." Ballmer's comments come as Amazon posted a $437 million loss for the third quarter, disappointing Wall Street. "If you are worth $150 billion," Ballmer added, "eventually somebody thinks you're going to make $15 billion pre-tax. They make about zero, and there's a big gap between zero and 15." Fired-up as ever, LA Clippers owner Ballmer's diss comes after fellow NBA owner Mark Cuban similarly slammed IBM, saying Big Blue is no longer a tech company (Robert X. Cringely seems to concur). "Today, they [IBM] specialize in financial engineering," Cuban told CNBC after IBM posted another disappointing quarter. "They're no longer a tech company, they are an amalgamation of different companies that they are trying to arb[itrage] on Wall Street, and I'm not a fan of that at all."
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Ballmer Says Amazon Isn't a "Real Business"

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  • by drinkypoo ( 153816 ) <drink@hyperlogos.org> on Saturday October 25, 2014 @07:27AM (#48228445) Homepage Journal

    The only computer-related business I can think of with more R&D budget is Microsoft, IBM isn't a tech company? Shut your mouth. Then again, if Cringely says it, it's probably wrong.

    Amazon is clearly a business. But its model is Microsoftian EEE. Sure, you can sell through Amazon, but they keep stats and if it becomes worth it to stock what you're selling, they're going to do that. Of course, on eBay, if the Chinese see you sell a lot of what they've got, they'll start selling it directly. Then you only get to sell to people who care about shipping time and support.

    Amazon is a real business, but their business model basically requires that they shut everyone else down, and not everyone wants to shop with Amazon. So they'll eventually fail if they don't find a new model.

    • You might be missing the side of Amazon's business that is one of the biggest (if not the biggest) cloud providers.

      • The reports are that the cloud provider part of the business is losing stunning amounts of money.

        • Comment removed (Score:5, Insightful)

          by account_deleted ( 4530225 ) on Saturday October 25, 2014 @07:52AM (#48228531)
          Comment removed based on user account deletion
          • by drinkypoo ( 153816 ) <drink@hyperlogos.org> on Saturday October 25, 2014 @08:10AM (#48228593) Homepage Journal

            The reports are that the cloud provider part of the business is losing stunning amounts of money.

            Only because they're trying to corner the market

            right, but just like retail, it's not clear that this is possible,

            overall the company seems sustainable, it can afford to make losses like the one last quarter in part because it can easily reverse those losses if it ever becomes a serious problem

            It's not clear that it can. Amazon's model depends on endless growth, but you can't grow forever.

            • That presumes the model they're using this year will be the one they use two years from now.

              • Re: (Score:3, Insightful)

                No, we can be pretty sure that this will be the model for the next 2 years. Probably for the next 5 to 10.

                Amazon has one of the lowest Return of Investments (ROI) in the S&P 500.
                It has one of the highest Price to Earnings ratio (P/E) in the S&P.

                The only way this makes sense is if Amazon is trading growth for profits today for bigger profits tomorrow. Depending on what model you use, you get 5 to 10 years. Combine that with the public statements of Bezos, and I doubt it is 2 years.

                • Ballmer's grandstanding. I'm pretty sure he understands the numbers in Amazon's 10-K filings.

                  Amazon made $745 million in income from $74 billion in sales last year, for a net income of $274 million.

                  That even seems understated, because they're obviously spending way more to expand their capacity than they need for just supporting their current operations. Last year, they have a net cash flow of $5.5 billion from operations, then spent $ 3.4 billion on purchases of property, equipment and software. Even after spending that much geared towards growth, that still leaves $2 billion in free cash flow to spend.

                  Let me put it another way, Amazon's net worth (assets minus liabilities) has gone from $17 Billion in 2010, to $23 Billion, then $27 Billion, now $33 Billion end of 2013. You don't do that without being profitable each year along the way, regardless of what they decide to do with the profit, which is clearly currently to reinvest the cash in order to expand quickly and grab as much market share as they can.

                  Ballmer's just jealous that no matter what Microsoft does or who they purchase, they can't convert their windows/office cash cows into a worthy reinvestment, because they're essentially out of new ideas, having mostly missed the ground floor of the Internet revolutions. So Microsoft's best bet is to act like a mature company and pay dividends so their stockholders can use that money to invest in something like Amazon.

          • by Shados ( 741919 ) on Saturday October 25, 2014 @09:52AM (#48228999)

            Since most of the loss comes from reinvesting revenue, at any point they could theoritically stop investing so much and turn a profit. They just choose not to.

            So in theory at least, they should be fine.

          • by Rob Y. ( 110975 )

            Perhaps - but that's exactly why Ballmer's trying to dis them. The only business Amazon is in that Microsoft wants to be in is cloud hosting services. And for now, Amazon's beating them. I don't know whether Amazon makes any money off of their cloud or not. They're spending everything they take in on expansion (and perks like free shipping) - but is that expansion of warehousing facilities, or is it the build-out of their data centers? Either way, Amazon cloud hosting could be a moneymaker. Their onli

        • by TheRaven64 ( 641858 ) on Saturday October 25, 2014 @07:53AM (#48228535) Journal

          That's generally how Amazon operates. Lose money to establish a dominant market position, then start working out how to make that profitable. People used to comment that their business was to lose money on each sale, but make up for it in volume. It was a facetious comment, but with a grain of truth: Amazon couldn't afford to sell books the way that they did until they were selling enough that they could own a lot of distribution infrastructure and amortise the costs.

          Ballmer isn't in any place to complain. The XBox and Zune followed the same model when he was MS CEO. It didn't work so well for the Zune, but the XBox spent years losing money before it had a sufficiently large market share to be profitable.

          • by MoogMan ( 442253 ) on Saturday October 25, 2014 @08:57AM (#48228779)

            Amazon isn't 'losing money' - Just take a look at it's top-line growth vs capital expenditure.

            Amazon is re-invest revenue instead of distributing back to stakeholders, or keeping cash in the bank. Cash in the bank is seen as waste. Instead, cash re-invested is being leveraged to create accelerated future growth.

            • by Alomex ( 148003 )

              It is easy to post growing sales if your profits are zero. The hard part is to have a growing business that actually makes money on each sales. Every time they seem to have gained traction on a market (like books) they seem to negate it by offering incentives such as Amazon prime. T

              hey have yet to prove that they can sell products at operating costs+3% on an ongoing basis.

              • by Luckyo ( 1726890 ) on Saturday October 25, 2014 @10:57AM (#48229281)

                You're missing the point. Amazon is making a profit, but it's not distributing it to investors, which is what gets flagged as "profit" by finance. Instead they are re-investing profit into more and more expansion.

                If they were to stop the aggressive expansion, they could likely post a decent profit. But they choose not to.

                • by alexander_686 ( 957440 ) on Saturday October 25, 2014 @12:12PM (#48229737)

                  Let me be the Devil's advocate.

                  First, Amazon is not "re-investing profit into more and more expansion." Amazon has one of the worse Return on Investment (ROI) in the S&P. That is, it has below average profits on its investments. What it is doing is exchanging profits for growth. It is a subtle but importance difference.

                  You are right, Amazon could be today's profits for bigger future profits. That is the general consensus among stock analyst. Which is why Amazon's stock price tends to flop around so much. Stock analyst have to guess what Amazon's profits will be in 10 years, which is shrouded in risk and uncertainty.

                  However there is a contra view. That Amazon is stuck in low margin business that will never generate large profits. That the only way to expand is to offer lower prices than anybody else, resulting in a "Red Queen's Race", where everybody has to run faster just to stay where they are. If that is true, Amazon will never be able to generate "normal" profits, so future profits will be small, not large.

                  Only time will tell on who is right.

                  • by Luckyo ( 1726890 )

                    But amazon's entire point is to have small profits from tremendously huge turnover.

                    Because there are two way to make a lot of money. Sell a few products with huge profit on each, or sell a huge amount of products with little profit on each.

            • by timeOday ( 582209 ) on Saturday October 25, 2014 @11:17AM (#48229419)
              That has long been Amazon's strategy, and it was working - solid growth that was essentially self-funding. But look at this graph [theaustralian.com.au]. In the past the "loss" was always negligible - they would run a small profit or loss each quarter while investing heavily and posting solid growth, indicating they could choose to start taking profits at any moment even without raising prices.

              But last quarter's loss was big, too big. That is why the stock suddenly took a hit.

        • Don't worry, they'll make it up in volume.

        • by jbolden ( 176878 )

          Hard to know. Amazon is hitting $1b / quarter. They are spending about $4.59 billion / yr in infrastructure costs. They have some OpEx. They are obviously pricing their service way too low if they have to maintain that level of CapEx. But it is unclear that when the market calms down they will.

          Amazon is simply too opaque about everything. As long as they can easily raise money based on sales growth we'll never know how profitable any of that is.

      • so?

        S3 - competes with akamai, and azure - cloud services
        fire/kindle- compete with sammy, goog, apple - hardware (nevermind all the amazon basics branded accessories)
        amazon locker, next day delivery - distribution/logistics- FedEx/UPS
        the dome - major studios, netflix - content
        amazon fresh - safeway, albertsons - food
        music/video streaming - apple, netflix, google, MS - digital distribution (and don't forget the game studio they bought)
        and with a "store" coming to Manhattan - retail.
        what's next, cars? oh, wait

    • by __aajwxe560 ( 779189 ) on Saturday October 25, 2014 @09:06AM (#48228815)
      Actually, as a former short time IBMer, I think you're both right. IBM core has lifers that have been sucked in and have worked there for years, most without skulls that ate actually marketable outside of IBM (yes, really). This self feeds where the vast majority internally still are riding on skills from 20yrs ago, and so the company competes over the past several years by bleeding out acquisitions it makes as it tries to buy its way into new markets without a real coherent strategy (see everything from storage platforms to their analytics acquisitions over past several years). Its a sales company where they try and compete on their long, slow, stodgy, established contracts, every once in awhile buying a new company and then rolling the capabilities under existing software contracts and agreements, adjusting the margin charge yearly to justify. This hasn't been working for several years at this point, anyone who understands basic financials can see the company has been playing financial games for about the last 4yrs (Money Mag gets credit for being one of the first mainstream places to call this out about a yr ago, even questuoning Buffets inVestment). So yes, they are tech in the sense they invest quite a bit into r&d to establish a patent hold, if someone else comes up with a remotely competent product that sells, IBM goes through this portfolio to attain a royalty stake while divesting itself of the risk. Does that sound like a tech company?
      • by Antique Geekmeister ( 740220 ) on Saturday October 25, 2014 @09:21AM (#48228883)

        > This self feeds where the vast majority internally still are riding on skills from 20yrs ago

        Like UNIX, lightweight code, C, consistent API's, and documentation? I'm afraid that while you may run into stodginess problems, a large part of my income right now comes from cleaning up after entrepreneurial spirits who ignore some of our hard-won lessons. And I'm afraid I've now seen several generations of newer developers take on new fads and be forced to re-learn, and re-invent from scratch, the procedures we learned 20 years ago.

        I'm not insisting that IBM engineers are currently doing this, but don't underestimate the usefulness of these old skills.

    • by DogDude ( 805747 )
      Amazon is clearly a business.

      No, it isn't. Anybody can create an organization that sells a dollar for $0.99. That's not sustainable, and that's not a business.
  • by Anonymous Coward on Saturday October 25, 2014 @07:30AM (#48228457)

    Ecommerce is a fast changing world and I know Balmer left Microsoft to go sow his oats in the basketball world, but I think we'd benefit from some insight from Bennett Haselton on the matter, someone outside many industries who has a proven track record for out of the box thinking. I'd like get some insight from him before I draw any conclusions. He's a frequent contributor.

    • by flyneye ( 84093 )

      IT is a fast changing world and I know Balmer got kicked to the curb by Microsoft because he was sowing oats and making poor decisions. Uhm, not making a profit, which is why he probably has an opinion on the subject. What a scrub.

    • by frank_adrian314159 ( 469671 ) on Saturday October 25, 2014 @04:39PM (#48231127) Homepage

      I know that comes as a shock to many of you, but it's true - I will miss him. Motherfucker was comedy gold. Where else do you go for that these days? Schmidt? Fucking gray man in a fucking gray suit. Same with Tim Cook - you can put him in jeans, but he just is a guy hat would rather be in a boardroom than on a stage. Larry Ellison? Scary (appropriate for the season), but not funny. The new guy? Nadella? Has the whole exotic foreigner befuddlement thing down (and that's just with respect to HR practice vs. tech culture), but I figure he's not going to be the full-on Olympic chair-throwing, "developers, developers, developers", "I'm going to squirt you with my Zune", "fucking kill Google" sort of guy that Balmer was.

      I'm just saying an age has passed. Nothing but gray men, as far as the eye can see. I love my new oligarchs.

  • Cuban is right (Score:5, Insightful)

    by tomhath ( 637240 ) on Saturday October 25, 2014 @07:46AM (#48228509)
    IBM is a marketing company. Their product line is a hodge podge of mismatched technology from companies they bought that doesn't work together, so they also sell consulting too.
  • by Severus Snape ( 2376318 ) on Saturday October 25, 2014 @07:57AM (#48228547)

    He knows fine well Amazon could start generating profits whenever they want. It is a crazy business model they have but it continues to work well for them. Every year they have more fingers in a plethora of interconnected pies.

    • Agreed. Every time you turn around, Amazon seems to be announcing some new feature, product, or service. I mean, off the top of my head, Amazon is:

      The Internet Mall of Everything (which is nice, because you can buy everything from breakfast cereal to plasma TV's without having to re-register for ANOTHER website and feed yet another vendor your CC info).
      A cloud service provider
      A streaming video service
      A music service
      A mechanical turk service
      A eBook service
      A cell phone maker(sure, this one is still s
  • by Hellburner ( 127182 ) on Saturday October 25, 2014 @08:07AM (#48228585)

    $2 billion. For the Clippers.

    Bezos wants to suck the entire market into the Amazon central economy.

    But let us reason together: the distinguishing qualities of both Ballmer and Cuban are that they were both at the right place at the right time. And both are complete pricks.

    Bezos is a menace. But Ballmer strikes me as clown and a lackwit.

    Is he planning on making back the $2B from the Clippers? Or did he just need his own shiny like Cuban?

    • Is he planning on making back the $2B from the Clippers? Or did he just need his own shiny like Cuban?

      Only after he sells 200 Million Beers at $10 each....

    • I don't think he expects to make his money back on the Clippers. He wanted a basketball team, he had enough money to buy a basketball team for a price nobody would match without making a outsized hole in his bank account, so he bought a basketball team. If you say, according to his definition, that's not a business, he would probably cheerfully agree with you.

    • Is he planning on making back the $2B from the Clippers?

      He probably will when he sells it. The price of NBA teams is not going down. That said......

      Or did he just need his own shiny like Cuban?

      .....shiny is the reason he bought it. He's not running out of money.

    • by brunes69 ( 86786 )

      Cuban is a bit of a prick, but he is a very smart prick. I too used to think he was just a guy who got lucky, but watching him on Shark Tank has changed my mind.

  • Ballmer said on the Charlie Rose Show. "In my world

    That fires an NMI for me right there. I'm not particularly fond of "Ballmer's World".

    I would be quite pleased if he would do us all a favor, and keep his world to himself.

    • by Bob_Who ( 926234 )

      Ballmer said on the Charlie Rose Show....

      Yeah, too bad he didn't' do the "Geraldo" show instead ...they would've angrily tossed chairs at each other.

  • ... as opposed to ripping your customers off, of course you're not a real business. Ballmer is the best person to attest to that. Not that Amazon doesn't ocasionally rip people off, then again they invest a lot in new stuff, which is quite nice.
  • by Alan Kennington ( 33546 ) on Saturday October 25, 2014 @08:29AM (#48228645) Homepage
    If Steve Ballmer said something complimentary about me, I would take that as a slanderous insult. Amazon should feel happy to be insulted by Ballmer. Amazon is the only big internet-based business that I like.

    It should be kept in mind that the theory of perfect markets says that competition drives all profits to zero. So making an extremely slim margin is a sign of a healthily functioning market, whereas the absurdly high profits that MS have made in the last 20 years are proof that free markets did not do their job in the case of MS software. So I would say that MicroSoft was not a "real business". It was, as we all know, a de-facto monopoly. And a monopoly is not a "real business". Real businesses compete against other businesses.
  • by Opportunist ( 166417 ) on Saturday October 25, 2014 @08:48AM (#48228739)

    Quite seriously, first he steered MS from having the muscle in any negotiation with whomever (from retailer to customer, they could say "my way or the highway" and their "partners" could only grin and bear it) to a mediocre company that has to accept setback after setback, only to blow the money he swindled our of piledriving MS on a mediocre (if that) sports team.

    He'd probably be a great manager for GM, a bank or anything else that we have to prop up now because their managers are about as useful as monkey boy, but just like a company that makes no profit is no business, an idiot that drives companies into a freefall tailspin is no manager.

  • by Tasha26 ( 1613349 ) on Saturday October 25, 2014 @08:59AM (#48228789) Homepage
    To me Amazon is not a normal company at all because the philosophy of its investors is "Do whatever you have to do, don't worry about profits/losses, we'll be right behind you." How can one compete against a company like that? It's as if a bank (hell, maybe Treasury!) opened an infinite credit line just for Amazon! No wonder our high-street shops (and online shops) are falling like flies!

    From a BBC documentary on Amazon (Business Boomers) someone said "Amazon was designed to be a shark right from the start." It's true in a way. Since spending money is no issue, it can do whatever it wants with its prices while growing its business areas. However its brick & mortar (or online) rivals cannot. They don't have an infinite credit line with their banks or investors, and depend on their profit margins. I'm wondering why European governments have not cracked down on this unfair "business" that is Amazon?
    • You are confused, if Amazon continues to spend more money than it makes, it will not be able to pay its creditors' loans and it will fail. Problem if any is self-solving.

    • by Shados ( 741919 )

      Because Amazon isn't nearly as big outside of the US. Amazon's revenue from all other countries combined add up to something like 2/3rd of what they make in the US alone. Its significant, but when you split it between all the major foreign markets, its not that big of a threat.

      As most US based e-retailers have to deal with, europe and asia tends to favor local companies, even for e-commerce, and regardless of if the foreign company has a local presence or not (so shipping isn't an issue). So they're not see

    • by u38cg ( 607297 )
      Well, not exactly. They've simply said explicitly they intend to go on investing their profits in the long term in pursuit of growth. They're free to do so and their investors are free to agree or disagree. Their competitors can do the same thing (and have access to the same sources of finance), but they simply wish to keep repaying profits to investors than invest, which is a legitimate choice.
    • I'm not sure if I see the reason to crack down on a business not being driven by short term profits. That would seem to be a desirable quality.
  • by akaina ( 472254 ) on Saturday October 25, 2014 @09:51AM (#48228993) Journal

    Amazon created and dominated the cloud as we know it before Microsoft even knew it existed. To this day, Microsoft's prices on Azure are about twice that of AWS, and Microsoft doesn't have a prayer in taking that market. All Microsoft has ever done is a half-assed attempt to buy their way into yet-another-market. If Amazon wasn't so laser focused on defining what the cloud means and pouring in R&D dollars, sure they could make a little more money. If Amazon wasn't pushing boundaries like same-day delivery, sure they could make a little more money. Put another way, if Ballmer wasn't so focused on making a little more money, and could be laser focused on R&D and pushing boundaries, maybe he could dominate a market like Amazon - but he left that post years ago.

    • by afgam28 ( 48611 )

      Yeah, I was thinking the same thing. It's interesting that Ballmer would say this, given that Microsoft made a big effort to carbon copy AWS during his leadership.

  • IBM's demise has been coming for a long time. It started when they didn't see the PCs potential. It continued when they stuck with proprietary (Micro channel), or unpopular (802.3) technologies. The 90s reorganization and switch to services helped but they were one of the first solutions companies. Now IBM is one of many competitors, and apparently they aren't the best. IBM isn't the only company to fall from grace. Compaq and HP merged to avoid oblivion. Microsoft lost ground in mobile and has yet t
  • by jtownatpunk.net ( 245670 ) on Saturday October 25, 2014 @12:19PM (#48229789)

    These days, the measure of being a success is being able to lose staggering amounts of money while continuing to exist. The bonus round is where the government bails it out because it's too big to fail and the whole cycle repeats on a larger scale.

  • by Solandri ( 704621 ) on Saturday October 25, 2014 @12:45PM (#48229967)

    According to Steve Ballmer, Amazon.com is not a real business. "They make no money," Ballmer said on the Charlie Rose Show.

    Er, yeah. You know what else originally made no money? Surface, Xbox, Bing, Zune, Windows Mobile/Phone, Internet Explorer, Office, Windows.

  • by chipschap ( 1444407 ) on Saturday October 25, 2014 @01:21PM (#48230155)

    I guess this article is here because I'm supposed to care what Ballmer thinks, or that his ravings are somehow important or influential.

    Sorry, but I don't, and they're not.

  • Xbox, Xbox360, Zune, Surface, all were sold below cost to penetrate (or try to) the market.

    Yes they're making money on Windows and Office, but if it weren't for

    a) the fact Windows comes with PCs (and they strongarmed OEMs to pay for licenses and/or stop installing other OSes (IBM and OS/2 come to mind), the fact that they hid APIs from competitors, and other tactics,

    b) the fact businesses are stuck with Office for compatibility reasons

    They probably wouldn't be in business (or at least not that big)

  • by melted ( 227442 ) on Sunday October 26, 2014 @01:00AM (#48232753) Homepage

    His words about Google in early 00's: "They're commies without a business model." And look at him now.

The computer is to the information industry roughly what the central power station is to the electrical industry. -- Peter Drucker

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