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The Almighty Buck Robotics Transportation Technology

Kiva Systems Co-Founder: Drone Delivery Could Be As Low As 20 Cents Per Package 92

Posted by samzenpus from the air-delivery dept.
Hallie Siegel writes A year ago, Amazon announced its plans for Prime Air — a drone delivery service. Recently Amazon has been posting job ads, saying they are looking for drone pilots. Whatever the regulatory issues, is drone delivery financially feasible? ETH Zurich professor Raffaello D'Andrea thinks it is economically feasible to deliver small packages by drone. D'Andrea is responsible for the Flying Machine Arena ("a space where flying robots live and learn") and is co-founder of Kiva Systems, the company acquired by Amazon for $775 million in cash that innovated the robotic fulfillment system that Amazon is now implementing in many of its warehouse facilities.
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Kiva Systems Co-Founder: Drone Delivery Could Be As Low As 20 Cents Per Package More

Kiva Systems Co-Founder: Drone Delivery Could Be As Low As 20 Cents Per Package

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  • Can't imagine anything going wrong (Score:3)

    by The Real Dr John ( 716876 ) on Wednesday December 03, 2014 @08:31PM (#48519307) Homepage
    with millions of small delivery drones flying in the same urban/suburban airspace at the same time delivering packages

    • No need to buy your own drone anymore. Maybe they can send me a drone soon. I like drones.

    • You could also have self-driving delivery cars with package dispensers. Just an idea...

      • The truck drives to the address or general area, and a drone lifts the package and deposits it on the doorstep. Then flies back to the truck to fast-charge for the next delivery. Short hops, with added intelligence / visualization provided by the truck.

        • I thought the buyer would be notified, perhaps through a cell phone app, with an exact ETA for the package. He could then pick the package from a dispenser on the vehicle. Depositing packages at the doorstep wouldn't fly where I live, if you pardon the pun.

          • Depositing packages at the doorstep wouldn't fly where I live, if you pardon the pun.

            No, but many of us could have them left in our back yards. I have a chain across my driveway, my front yard would also be fine.

    • crashes in a plane and the lawsuits will take a big out of shipper and the owners of the drone

    • A system that can deliver Molotov Cocktails for less than the cost of a soft drink? What could possibly go wrong? This concept is almost as inherently safe and harmless as hooking every traffic light in the country to the internet.

      And furthermore we're going to need it to deliver food and medicine when some bored teenager in Budapest switches every traffic light in Western Europe, Australia, and North America to a permanent red.

      • And furthermore we're going to need it to deliver food and medicine when some bored teenager in Budapest switches every traffic light in Western Europe, Australia, and North America to a permanent red.

        Well, if you're going to pull a prank like that yellow in both directions would be funnier. (for teenage values of funny)

  • Practical jokes (Score:5, Funny)

    by Beardo the Bearded ( 321478 ) on Wednesday December 03, 2014 @08:35PM (#48519323)

    A buddy and I were talking about how you could prank someone with this.

    Find a couple out on a date, wait for the guy to check his phone, then order drone-delivered condoms.

  • Most of the 'small' packages I get from Amazon have 3 week lead time from China. What kind of weight are we really talking about?

  • Still not legal, right? (Score:3)

    by __aaltlg1547 ( 2541114 ) on Wednesday December 03, 2014 @08:49PM (#48519373)

    The FAA's still not allowing commercial use of drones. So what's this about?

    • It's really only a matter of time. They'll be some delays (mostly with UPS/FedEx trying to prevent it until their ready with their own drone fleets). But it's coming.

      The bigger concern is what are we doing to do with all the people this puts out of work. This will basically make retail and delivery jobs obsolete. That's several million people suddenly without work and with no prospects for getting work. I guess there's always tent cities...

      • Re:Still not legal, right? (Score:4, Insightful)

        by Dutch Gun ( 899105 ) on Wednesday December 03, 2014 @09:40PM (#48519549)

        These things only go the last part of the journey, and only with small, lightweight objects (about 5lbs or so). You're still going to need a massive delivery fleet to move everything to local warehouses from other states or countries, and for heavier or bulky items you'll still need traditional delivery vehicles. There are also going to be many areas or sites for which drone delivery simply isn't practical.

        Moreover, I think this is not going to be a rapid transition either. It's likely to be something that's phased in over a few decades, not a few years, so you won't see a sudden effect on the economy.

        • Term Drone encompasses so many things. I would think stage one is a glider drone: So a cargo plane takes off with a series of pallets with fold out auto-gyro style blades built into each palette. The plane flies over the small warehouse, and instead of landing and taking off, it unfolds and shoves out the pallet and it lands in the truck hub, and is loaded on a truck and away it goes to the destination.
          Stage 2 is you order something light weight and small but time sensitive, DVD's, repair parts (auto/home

        • These things only go the last part of the journey, and only with small, lightweight objects (about 5lbs or so). You're still going to need a massive delivery fleet to move everything to local warehouses from other states or countries

          If you ask me, interstate trucking will be automated before doorstop delivery will. Think about it, freeway driving is pretty easy.

          • Auto-navigating in the air seems to be vastly easier than on the ground. It's not the simple case of freeway driving you have to worry about - it's all the crazy edge cases that likely make it so damnably difficult. Commercial airliners can already pretty much fly themselves if they had to, and the military has had fully automated drones for quite some time now.

            I'd take that bet, and would even spot you a decade.

        • These things only go the last part of the journey, and only with small, lightweight objects (about 5lbs or so). You're still going to need a massive delivery fleet to move everything to local warehouses from other states or countries,

          Perhaps you could explain to us which part of this is not going to be automated away soon. They've already got automated picking and stuffing, which will only improve. It's only a matter of time before the receiving department is handled by robots, too. Trucking? It's going away.

          • Trucking is going away soon? I think self-driving vehicles are farther away than most people think, and mass deployment is even further away. Hand delivery will be required for packages larger than 5 lbs for a while. Don't tell me a robot is going to climb out of the truck and carry that package to my doorstep too? And you think all the smaller warehouses and distribution centers in the US (or world) will suddenly find the collective billions of free dollars needed to convert all their operations to com

            • Trucking is going away soon? I think self-driving vehicles are farther away than most people think,

              What? We have them already.

              and mass deployment is even further away

              It's obviously further away than self-driving vehicles, which are here already.

              Hand delivery will be required for packages larger than 5 lbs for a while. Don't tell me a robot is going to climb out of the truck and carry that package to my doorstep too?

              It's certainly within the realm of possibility. Even before that happens, the driver will be reduced to a package thrower.

      • Re: (Score:2)

        by gl4ss ( 559668 )

        there's plenty of other commercial uses for drones apart from delivery.

        mapping etc. a whole lot more feasible commercial uses than delivery.

        and maybe the electricity for the drone delivery is 20 cents - but they still haven't figured out how they could make them fly in an environment they don't control.

      • This will basically make retail and delivery jobs obsolete. That's several million people suddenly without work and with no prospects for getting work. I guess there's always tent cities...

        Yes, I'm sure all those career delivery men will be heartbroken.

        Both of them.

    • This is about raising awareness of the potential good things that can happen if the FAA gets their act together and allows commercial use of drones. The more good stuff we know about, the more likely they are to do something... theoretically.

    • Re:Still not legal, right? (Score:4, Interesting)

      by AgNO3 ( 878843 ) on Wednesday December 03, 2014 @09:15PM (#48519465) Homepage
      People often forget that the air space over your property to like 300 feet is the property owners and they can and have had people arrested for trespassing for their drones being in their airspace. This has already been to many a court case over air rights. The FAA doesn't even if made legal to fly have the right to say you can fly in a private properties airspace. It would be interesting to see how many nets people put up to their max air space if people start flying drones with valuable stuff over their property. The FAA has ZERO say over your air rights and it varies by state as to how high they go. So they would pretty much be limited to following the roads.

      • People often forget that the air space over your property to like 300 feet is the property owners ...

        I have looked into this extensively and have found no actual height that is considered the property of the land owner. If you have references I would love to see them. All I can find are references to the statement that "a landowner owns only so much of the airspace above their property as they may reasonably use in connection with their enjoyment of the underlying land".

        It would be interesting to see how many nets people put up to their max air space

        There actually has been a SCOTUS ruling [wikipedia.org] in this issue.

        A landowner can't arbitrarily try to prevent aircraft from overflying their land by erecting "spite poles," for example.

        • Re: (Score:2)

          by AgNO3 ( 878843 )
          You might want to check on the height of those poles because the SCOTUS rulling quite clearly says. "But, a landowner may make any legitimate use of their property that they want, even if it interferes with aircraft overflying the land." that also means Air craft aren't allowed to interfere with your peaceful enjoyment of your land. IE I like to fly chinese kits and can legally leave them airborne over my property.

          • Yes, but what REALLY happens is the FAA comes in and tells the local city/town/whatever "if you want this airport to remain open, you'll pass a local ordinance that restricts whatever we want".

            And it generally happens that way.

            I speak from experience, many years of working with the FAA, and they do generally get their way.

            People love to sit in front of their keyboards and Goggle search this and that, then you have the real world.

            • Re: (Score:2)

              by AgNO3 ( 878843 )
              Oh your right. Just like how Santa monica was forced by the FAA to limit flights into Santa monica Air port. OH WAIT. No one wants a new air port anywhere near them so I can't imagine that say West Hollywood, or Chesterfield Mo, or King of Prussia PA or Englewood CO or a zillion other Suburbs that don't want airports give a rats ass what the FAA wants. http://www.latimes.com/opinion... [latimes.com] Lets see how this works out for the FAA.

              • I always find situations like Santa Monica almost laughable. The airport has been there since before WW2. People moved there after the airport was built and now they want to close the airport. If you don't want to live near an airport don't move near an airport.

          • I like to fly chinese kits and can legally leave them airborne over my property.

            That could easily be found a not legitimate. How would you keep them up 24/7? It could be easily shown to be done solely to restrict flight rather than enjoy the land. Finally, drones could avoid the strings with no problem.

      • Re: (Score:2)

        by Fwipp ( 1473271 )

        It would be interesting to see how many nets people put up to their max air space if people start flying drones with valuable stuff over their property.

        I dunno, zero isn't a particularly interesting number in this context.

      • So they would pretty much be limited to following the roads.

        For which Google already has a great application developed!

        • Re: (Score:2)

          by AgNO3 ( 878843 )
          uh huh you think DOT or FAA is going to allow drones to fly over traffic? at any altitude? as for the other stuff I'm not talking about main transit. I'm talking last mile. Last mile where the drone is dealing with say this https://www.google.com/maps/pl... [google.com] Or waiting at the security door at one of these zillion places in culver city (or the rest of LA.) or flying lower over house. Or how does it deliver to an apartment building? Block the door or just land and wait? (and be crushed by people p

    • The FAA's still not allowing commercial use of drones. So what's this about?

      It's about free advertising for Amazon, and now for Kiva, whoever they are.

    • Re: (Score:2)

      by mcrbids ( 148650 )

      The FAA is all about protecting the commercial use of the air.

      It's so one-sided that pilots don't even have a consistent right to appeal punitive actions, and the rules around "non commercial" (private) flight are so ridiculous that merely sharing the cost of a ride in a small plane with a buddy can be considered a commercial flight, if your buddy does anything work related at all. It is truly just silly.

      As soon as the drones have progressed technologically to the point where they are reasonably safe *and*

  • drones (Score:3)

    by phantomfive ( 622387 ) on Wednesday December 03, 2014 @09:56PM (#48519631) Journal
    Solve the problem of falling drones + shot-down drones, and then we'll see.

    In comparison, route-finding and range of the drones are already solved theoretically. It's just a matter of cost/benefit.

    • Solve the problem of falling drones + shot-down drones, and then we'll see. In comparison, route-finding and range of the drones are already solved theoretically. It's just a matter of cost/benefit.

      So the air traffic control issues have all been solved?

    • You mean like all the falling and shot-down airplanes we have? Why do people insist on solving problems that don't exist?

  • Sign me up for some!

    Hey Raffaello. Your drone never did deliver that stuff to me. You better send another drones worth.

  • To assess the costs, D'Andrea initially uses two assumptions:

    Payload of up to 2 kg.
    Range of 10 km with headwinds of up to 30 km/h.

    Is package delivery using drones feasible? [robohub.org]

    I don't know the situation where you live.

    But I don't see many warehouses here within 6 miles/10 km of a middle class residential district. 30 to 60 km would be closer to the truth. The central warehouse of our largest regional supermarket chain is 150 miles/240 km east.

  • I have seen raffaello d'andrea's youtube stuff, those drones don't look like they need much of a human to drive them. The pilot is probably gonna become a mere supervisor before this drone delivery business... ehm... takes off.

  • The only world that 20 cent deliveries can work is the same one where "Lucy in the Sky with Diamonds...

  • If I order a drone through Amazon, will it deliver itself?

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