Weather Promising for Sunday Morning SpaceX Launch 49
USA Today reports that the weather looks good for Sunday morning's planned launch at 10:21, Florida time (14:21 GMT) of SpaceX's Dragon cargo capsule, loaded with a docking adapter intended for future manned-crew access to the International Space Station. An excerpt:
"The forecast calls for a 90% chance of weather good enough to permit SpaceX's 208-foot Falcon 9 rocket to blast off from Cape Canaveral Air Force Station during an instantaneous launch window.
... "This is actually pretty cool, because it does play right into our next Crew Dragon program," [Hans] Koenigsmann, SpaceX's vice president for mission assurance, said of the docking adapter in a separate news briefing. "It's something that we bring up for our own future, and so we're really motivated to bring this up."
Related: astroengine points out that as part of this launch, SpaceX will make another attempt at landing the first stage of its Falcon 9 rocket on a floating platform off the coast of Florida after sending the Dragon cargo vehicle to the International Space Station. Although SpaceX is hoping to achieve something the rocket industry has never done before (true usability of rocket engines, cutting costs), it's not the only game in town — Blue Origin, ULA and Airbus all have rocket return desires.
Not the only game in town? (Score:5, Insightful)
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AND the only reason they are making these promises is because of the real threat SpaceX is presenting as competition.
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SpaceX has more paper competitors then any aerospace company in history.
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Jeff Bezos/Blue Origin had a successful launch to near-space on 4/29/15. It's a space tourism company. It failed to land its launcher, just as SpaceX has failed twice. Blue Origin was founded in 2000, two years before SpaceX. Apparently, Bezo has cut deals with ULA for joint development of new rocket engine designs.
http://www.wired.com/2015/04/jeff-bezos-blue-origin-just-launched-flagship-rocket/
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That flying dildo is nowhere near as capable as the Falcon 9 or Falcon Heavy.
Space X has a good decade headstart on any competition.
Crew Vehicle: Check, awaiting final approval for maned test flight
Crew Abort System: Check, tested and approved
Falcon 9: zero failure on all commercial flights
Dragon rendez-vous with ISS: check
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Falcon 9: zero failure on all commercial flights
I don't really know how to break this to you, but...
A useful site for tracking SpaceX launch dates (Score:5, Informative)
For anybody who doesn't know about it, http://spacexstats.com/index.p... [spacexstats.com] is a neat site that lists upcoming SpaceX missions with countdowns to expected launch times, or estimates where the exact time isn't yet determined. It also has some statistics (though, sadly, they're almost always out of date) about things like launch records, flight times, payload mass, and so on. Obviously not as useful as SpaceX.com itself on launch day, but handy for checking when launch day will come (or when, for example, the first flight of a new vehicle is expected). It also has links to info about past launches.
I'm not affiliated with the site in any way (if I were, it'd keep those statistics better up to date) but I thought it might interest some other folks who like to follow SpaceX. Oh, and for the record, the link to tomorrow/today's launch is http://spacexstats.com/mission... [spacexstats.com]
Why is the weather REALLY promising for SpaceX? (Score:2, Funny)
We deserve the truth, and more clickbait headlines. I won't even look at the summary unless the title is phrased as a "controversial" question.
Insufficient control authority (Score:1)
SpaceX are trying to do this with a barely throttlable ascent engine pushing a very light first stage. It can't hover before landing because thrust is too high. It has to steer by rotating the entire vehicle, which puts tight constraints on the landing timeline. I doubt that reliable landings can be achieved with this configuration. They may get one in 4. Something like that.
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which puts tight constraints on the landing timeline
Damn... if only we had some sort of device that could perform tremendously complex real-time calculations - thousands, or maybe even millions of them per second. Then they might... just might... have a shot at pulling this off.
Re:Insufficient control authority (Score:5, Insightful)
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Not enough caps and too much punctuation. D-
Promising what? (Score:2)
What is the weather promising? A hurricane?
Well that was sad (Score:1)
:(
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I thought it was separating a stage, though it looked a little "big", but the announcer wasn't announcing it. Then a "second stage" separation seemed to occur, and that was wrong because there was only supposed to be one. Then a thousand shards started falling.
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Yes it was, and it's especially sad since that's two resupply missions to ISS in a row that have failed, with two launch platform failures they faces some very tough choices since the solid waste module fills up to reserve levels on July 20th and will be completely full by September 5th.
Oh, and on a personal note it reminded me a lot of the loss of Challenger, when I saw the white shooting stars it brought back that day from my childhood in vivid detail.
Exploded (Score:2)
It blew up ðY
Dang. (Score:2)
Didn't even make a big explosion that I saw. Just pieces flying apart.
At first I thought all that vapor coming off was atmospheric.
Apparently it was not.
Launch failed (Score:2)
Watching the launch - a bit after 2 minutes, something ruptured, and a couple seconds later it was gone :(
How I saw it (Score:2)
Several minutes into flight, something that looked possibly like the Dragon capsule detached from the rocket and fell behind it. A few seconds later, the rocket disintegrated into fragments. The commentator on the SpaceX stream wasn't very informative (although their coverage was great up to that point, better than NASA's.)
NASA commentary has just confirmed that the vehicle has failed. (SpaceX have stopped streaming.)
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Elon Musk's twitter says "Falcon 9 experienced a problem shortly before first stage shutdown. Will provide more info as soon as we review the data."
NASA says aircraft will soon be allowed into the area where debris will have fallen.
Overpressure in upper stage oxygen tank (Score:2)
Now he says "There was an overpressure event in the upper stage liquid oxygen tank. Data suggests counterintuitive cause."
"That's all we can say with confidence right now. Will have more to say following a thorough fault tree analysis."
https://twitter.com/elonmusk [twitter.com]
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Looked to me like the second stage burst into pieces and the first stage was destroyed seconds after. I think that white stuff that seemed to come off before the first stage blew up was probably a cloud of cold oxygen from the second stage oxygen tank.
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He also posted a gif: http://imgur.com/SYwUIbI [imgur.com]
Looks like the Dragon did "fall off" too. Of course, it would always do that if the second stage was destroyed.
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OK, on reviewing, the possibly-dragon I saw detached was not the first sign of trouble (which was how I saw it at the time) but actually happened several seconds into the event. I hadn't realized those clouds of vapour were Not Good.
Thanks for the link.
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NASA stream says no information will be forthcoming until a press conference at 12:30 at the earliest.
damn shame (Score:1)
Shoot, it would've been nice to see the barge landing attempt. Don't stop believin'
Well shit. (Score:2)
Shit shit shit shit shit.
https://twitter.com/NASASpacef... [twitter.com]
Dragon separation? (Score:1)
As I watched, it looked like the SuperDraco engines fired momentarily (which I thought was very weird), followed by the first & second stages disintegrating. I hoped it was just a strange camera angle and I was actually just seeing first-stage separation, but alas, no.
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Ah, that would also explain it.
Did it hit something? (Score:2)
Final Tally (Score:3)
Ariane 1 - second and fifth launches failed
Ariane 2 - only 6 launches, first failed
Ariane 3 - fifth launch failed
Ariane 4 - eighth launch failed
Ariane 5 - first launch failed, two partial failures in first 11
Atlas A - only 8 launches, 5 failed
Atlas B - only 10 launches, 3 failed
Atlas C - only 6 launches, 2 failed
Delta - first launch failed
Delta II - first eighteen successful, partial failure on the 42nd launch which substantially reduced the satellite's operational lifespan (55th was first total failure)
Falcon 1 - only five launches, first three failed
Falcon 9 - first eighteen launches successful (Secondary payload on the 4th launch aborted as a precaution, 19th was first total failure)
Long March 1 - only 2 launches, both successful
Long March 2 - first launch failed
Long March 3 - no complete failures in first 11, but 1 and 8 were partial failures
N-1 - only four launches, all failed horribly
Proton - third launch failed
Proton-K - second, third, fourth and sixth launches failed
Proton-M - eleventh launch failed
Saturn I - only ten launches, all successful
Saturn IB - only nine launches, all successful (unless you count Apollo 1 - it didn't launch but still killed three astronauts)
Saturn V - second launch (Apollo 6) failed, Apollo 13 doesn't count because it was a payload, not launcher, failure
Soyuz - third launch failed, with fatalities
Soyuz-U - seventh launch failed
Soyuz-FG - first eighteen launches successful (all 46 to date completely successful, including lots and lots of astronauts delivered to ISS)
Space Shuttle - first eighteen successful (19th was first partial failure (ATO), 25th was first full failure)
Titan I - fifth, sixth, eighth, ninth and tenth launches failed
Titan II - ninth and eleventh launches failed
Titan III - first and sixth launches failed
Titan IV - seventh launch failed
Zenit-2 - first and second launches failed
It was a good run, but the game is over. Falcon 9 slots in to the rankings as fourth in the history of rocket development, with a success record exceeded only by Shuttle, Soyuz-FG, and Delta II.
Maybe Falcon 9 Heavy will have better luck.
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One nitpick, you weren't clear that Apollo 1 was totally a payload failure (Apollo Command Module). Nothing to do with the Saturn 1B. Same situation as Apollo 13.
But how promising is the rocket? (Score:2)
At lest the weather looks promising.