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Businesses The Almighty Buck

Seattle's $15 Minimum Wage May Be Hurting Workers, Report Finds (usatoday.com) 511

As companies look for ways to cut costs, Seattle's $15 minimum wage law may be hurting hourly workers instead of helping them, according to a new report. From a USA Today article: A report (PDF) from the University of Washington (UW), found that when wages increased to $13 in 2016, some companies may have responded by cutting low-wage workers' hours. The study, which was funded in part by the city of Seattle, found that workers clocked 9 percent fewer hours on average, and earned $125 less each month after the most recent increase. "If you're a low-skilled worker with one of those jobs, $125 a month is a sizable amount of money," Mark Long, a UW public-policy professor and an author of the report told the Seattle Times. "It can be the difference between being able to pay your rent and not being able to pay your rent."
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Seattle's $15 Minimum Wage May Be Hurting Workers, Report Finds

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  • Typical... (Score:2, Insightful)

    by Anonymous Coward

    If goes from "The science is settled!" to "may be doing something" when the results don't fit the popular narrative.

    and you wonder how people can be skeptical? Geesh.

    • Re: Typical... (Score:4, Insightful)

      by Anonymous Coward on Wednesday June 28, 2017 @03:15PM (#54707207)

      Thomas Sowell (based Harvard / Stanford economist and academic) has researched this to death using actual data, minimum wage creates fewer jobs. Listen to his explanation https://youtu.be/6TGkfjaxFWs. He started as a Marxist until he actually did some research.

      Please watch the video or even read his research, this isn't the answer.

      • Agreed. Lowering the minimum wage may help workers to secure longer hours and higher monthly wages. We really should be discussing a maximum wage for unskilled labor - for their own good, of course.
      • Re: (Score:2, Informative)

        by guises ( 2423402 )

        He started as a Marxist until he actually did some research.

        If you say so. The video is just an excerpt from an audiobook, so I went looking for something a little more substantial in video form... which I did not find. I did find a lot of articles though, and this guy is partisan as shit. If he "started as a Marxist," it was a very long time ago.

        • Re: Typical... (Score:5, Insightful)

          by Train0987 ( 1059246 ) on Wednesday June 28, 2017 @04:40PM (#54708029)
          Sowell isn't so much partisan as economic conservatives have adopted his theories. Before being brainwashed into dismissing anyone your betters have labeled for you, maybe read his work for yourself and make up your own mind? They label him because his theories are very difficult to dispute and they desperately don't want you researching it for yourself.
          • Re: Typical... (Score:5, Informative)

            by rahvin112 ( 446269 ) on Wednesday June 28, 2017 @06:57PM (#54708867)

            Absolutely conclusive evidence until you read the rebuttals. Like the fact that his data excluded all restaurants (almost 35% of minimum wage jobs), excluded any business with more than one location, etc, etc, etc. Just remember, figures never lie but liers can figure.

            The data set the researcher used was substandard at best, someone might even argue the data set was cooked to extract the desired result.On top of that he refuses to provide the data to outside users and reviewers making his "research" a fucking black box. But he was at least honest and listed all the problems with the data, just didn't include why excluding more than a 1/3rd of low wage jobs in the study area was a good idea.

            https://www.washingtonpost.com... [washingtonpost.com]

    • If you read the study its exclusion criteria is so bad it can't consider the results anything other than exploratory.

    • Who said the "science" was settled on the issue of minimum wage?

      If you're talking about people who aren't economists, yeah, this just in, sometimes people say things that are wrong. If you're looking at professional economists who aren't regarded as cranks, I'm skeptical you'd find many saying "FACT. MINIMUM WAGE ALWAYS GOOD."

      Slashdot, undergoing a fox news regression, likely prefers researchers who do their research and then politely refrain from making anything more than timid suggestions that are c
  • they're working less hours. They got a $5/hr raise. No $hi1 they're working less hours. Hours worked != Quality of Life. Who knew?
    • by Train0987 ( 1059246 ) on Wednesday June 28, 2017 @03:14PM (#54707199)
      They aren't just working more hours, many have been laid off altogether while many small employers just closed and moved outside the city limits. For the restaurant/service industry there's also been an increase in the number of illegals hired and paid even less than before under the table.
      • There's a part of me that wonders if one could actually do better "under the table", at least on the short term (lack of healthcare would eventually trip you up) due to the employer's lower overhead. (No payroll taxes, no insurance, etc.)

      • Making stuff up?

        "For the restaurant/service industry there's also been an increase in the number of illegals hired and paid even less than before under the table."

        The report says at least twice that the restaurant/service industry is seeing the exact same number of workers and the exact same number of hours worked.

        • There are fewer restaurants in Seattle today than there was before the min wage was increased. How can that stat be true? Are they only counting restaurants that haven't closed?
      • by WrongMonkey ( 1027334 ) on Wednesday June 28, 2017 @04:44PM (#54708055)
        [citation needed]
    • by TheSync ( 5291 )

      The paper states "we conclude that the second wage increase to $13 reduced hours worked in low-wage jobs by around 9 percent, while hourly wages in such jobs increased by around 3 percent."

      The paper's definition of "low-wage" is up to $19 per hour, so not all of the "low-wage" workers received a legally required raise due to the higher minimum wage.

    • by TheSync ( 5291 )

      To be clear, for those making $19 per hour or less "total payroll fell for such jobs, implying that the minimum wage ordinance lowered low-wage employeesâ(TM) earnings by an average of $125 per month in 2016."

  • by Uncle_Meataxe ( 702474 ) on Wednesday June 28, 2017 @03:11PM (#54707171)

    The University of Washington study comes to a very different conclusion than a UC Berkeley report.

    How a Rising Minimum Wage Affects Jobs in Seattle
    https://www.nytimes.com/2017/0... [nytimes.com]

    • by Train0987 ( 1059246 ) on Wednesday June 28, 2017 @03:17PM (#54707233)
      The Washington study considers MANY more data points.
    • by Anonymous Coward on Wednesday June 28, 2017 @03:25PM (#54707305)

      The UCB study was paid for by the Mayor after he saw an early draft of the UW post. Check the Seattle Weekly article on the topic. The UCB report is pure BS.

      http://www.seattleweekly.com/news/seattle-is-getting-an-object-lesson-in-weaponized-data/

      • by DRJlaw ( 946416 ) on Wednesday June 28, 2017 @03:42PM (#54707451)

        The UCB study was paid for by the Mayor after he saw an early draft of the UW post. Check the Seattle Weekly article on the topic. The UCB report is pure BS.

        I'd order another study myself if I was given UW's pure BS. From your own cited source:

        "Among other things, the UW study did not include multisite businesses in the study, which the UW researchers argued produced a cleaner data set but which Berkeley researchers said meant a huge portion of Seattleâ(TM)s low-wage work force was left out of the study. "

        "Cleaner" as in is necessary to show the purported effect?

      • by Uncle_Meataxe ( 702474 ) on Wednesday June 28, 2017 @03:46PM (#54707493)

        Interesting point, but the UCB report is not "pure BS." Actually, it's a pretty difficult problem to address and economists have been working on it for years. Like previous studies, it appears that the UW study has its own methodological problems. You probably quit reading before you got to this point in that seattleweekly.com post:

        "Berkeley’s Reich did not return a phone call seeking comment, but in a memo released Monday he blasted the UW report, saying it was full of red flags.

        Among other things, the UW study did not include multisite businesses in the study, which the UW researchers argued produced a cleaner data set but which Berkeley researchers said meant a huge portion of Seattle’s low-wage work force was left out of the study. Reich also notes that many of the UW team’s most dire conclusions fall outside what even highly critical research would suggest."

        “The unlikely UW estimate of large negative employment effects likely results from the problems noted above. Their findings are not credible and drawing inferences from the report are unwarranted,” Reich wrote."

        • by epine ( 68316 )

          Actually, it's a pretty difficult problem to address and economists have been working on it for years.

          It'll never be settled. Basically as soon as minimum wage is implemented, both sides mark a future date in their respective calendars to write up a victory lap (victory condition for the negative side is an employment mushroom cloud).

          All this supported by impeccable data, on both sides.

          I personally think that a UBI regime is far better than a livable minimum wage, but UBI hasn't got the miles on it yet to

  • by sgt_doom ( 655561 ) on Wednesday June 28, 2017 @03:15PM (#54707217)
    Negative --- Forbes just came out with the counter-argument that this study was invalid since they didn't research all the workers, just 60%. Must cover all the workers or at least 95%.
    • Re: (Score:3, Insightful)

      by Anonymous Coward
      and I disregard anything Forbes says since I can't read any of their articles without risking a malware infection
  • by AutodidactLabrat ( 3506801 ) on Wednesday June 28, 2017 @03:16PM (#54707219)
    Multi-national and nationwide chains are excluded from the study by NBER.
    Surprise!
    Those are the target audience of tax-supported employers
    Worthless "Study"
  • by DRJlaw ( 946416 ) on Wednesday June 28, 2017 @03:18PM (#54707239)

    If you exclude all the employees from businesses that have multiple locations, [fortune.com] then focus only on single-location businesses that are under pressure by the excluded businesses, you're pretty much guaranteed to get that result.

  • Only Temporary (Score:2, Insightful)

    by Sir Holo ( 531007 )

    This is only temporary.

    Lower management sought to bring costs "back to where they were before the wage increase." How? They cut hours, which means fewer person-hours per day to do the job. Quality or quantity will suffer.

    Middle management will see the drop in gross sales –due to lower quality. Upper management will breathe fire down upon them for the lost of brand prestige or drop in quarterly profits.

    Middle management will instruct lower management to staff-up in order to fix it. Workers will ha

    • Re:Only Temporary (Score:5, Insightful)

      by ageoffri ( 723674 ) on Wednesday June 28, 2017 @03:28PM (#54707339)
      Or as is more likely, any business that can will move outside of the city limits and pay the prevailing wage that is lower.
    • Re: (Score:3, Insightful)

      by Anonymous Coward

      It's humorous you think there's so many levels of disconnected management in small companies employing minimum wage workers.

    • You act as if these companies are huge conglomerates. In reality the vast majority of businesses this impacts are small businesses with a small number of employees and small margins. Paying everyone $15/hr eliminates those margins and puts the shop out of business.
  • by Cyberax ( 705495 ) on Wednesday June 28, 2017 @03:26PM (#54707311)
    The UW study is a BS. Instead of just looking into the actual data (it's not compatible with the aim of the study as it shows improvements in wages and jobs) they created a "fantasy Seattle". Then they compared the growth of wages and employments in this "fantasy Seattle" with the reality. Then they tweaked the model to produce the numbers they want - they omitted minimum-wage workers from chain franchises.

    And lo and behold! The model shows slightly more growth than the real Seattle.
  • by hawguy ( 1600213 ) on Wednesday June 28, 2017 @03:40PM (#54707433)

    If employees are given 9% fewer hours and getting less overall pay and are presumably doing the same jobs they were before the wage increase, then they must be 9% more efficient and saving businesses money.

    I bet businesses around the country are going to push for higher minimum wages now -- they'll save money and get more efficient workers.

    • by Solandri ( 704621 ) on Wednesday June 28, 2017 @05:09PM (#54708287)
      For service employers who interact with customers (e.g. fast food register operators), this basically means customers have to wait in longer lines. Having more employees working the registers means customers get faster service, but it also means you have more employees sitting idle when there aren't enough customers. Having fewer employees working the registers means customers have to wait longer, pushing some of those customers into time the employees would otherwise be sitting idle. Thus efficiency (in terms of reduced time employees spend idle) is increased.

      For service employers who don't interact with customers (e.g. maids), it just means their hours were reduced. The office decides to have cleaning services come in every other day instead of every day. The floors are a bit dirtier, but it's considered preferable to the higher price of cleaning service. Thus efficiency is increased.

      For production employees, they simply moved production out to someplace with a lower minimum wage. Thus efficiency is increased.
  • The subjects are from a small range of people, and the statistical analysis is dubious.

    Someone bent this data until it gave a result, perhaps even the result they wanted.

    Don't trust this study.

  • https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/posteverything/wp/2017/06/27/seattles-higher-minimum-wage-is-actually-working-just-fine

    According to the stuff they quote, Seattle's doing just fine, thank you very much. With an unemployment rate of only 2.6 percent, I'm inclined to believe them. As mentioned by others, the study excludes workers at businesses that have more than one location, making it pretty damn meaningless in this age of the multi-national corporation and a Starbucks on every corner.

  • No wonder these morons are working minimum wage jobs. They sure as hell can't do math and don't know how economics or business math works.
  • I've always been in favor of ratio based minimums. E.g. The CEO can't earn more than 10x the lowest paid employee or contractor. That's an illustration, yes it has to be a bit more complex. I feel like no one ever talks about it though. It's just minimum wage this and that, and even then not discussed in the context of being pegged to inflation. Wouldn't it be nice for the boss's success to be everyone's success, just as the myth of the job creator dictates? "The boss doubled his paycheck! We all get a rais
  • Statistics are hard (Score:5, Interesting)

    by Daetrin ( 576516 ) on Wednesday June 28, 2017 @04:03PM (#54707655)
    The math on this wasn't making any sense to me, an 18% or 32% wage increase (depending on whether you count one or both increases) ought to more than compensate for a 9% decrease in hours. So i dug through TFA a little and eventually found this:

    "Seattle data show - even in simple first differences - that payroll expenses on workers earning under $19 per hour either rose minimally or fell as the minimum wage increased from $9.47 to $13 in just over nine months."

    So they're including people making more than the new minimum wage, up to 46% more, in their calculations. Given the discrepancy noted above it seems likely that the higher wage employees are bearing the brunt of the reduction in hours

    Most likely the wage increase helped the people it was directly targeted at but had a negative impact on others who were making above minimum wage but not enough above the minimum to escape the "low-wage" classification.
  • making ends meet (Score:4, Interesting)

    by PopeRatzo ( 965947 ) on Wednesday June 28, 2017 @04:12PM (#54707727) Journal

    These are illuminating in regard to any discussion of the economic impact of the minimum wage:

    http://thehill.com/homenews/ho... [thehill.com]

    "Rep. Jason Chaffetz (R-Utah) said Monday that House and Senate lawmakers should receive a $2,500 per month housing allowance — something he explained would help ease housing costs for members who can’t afford two mortgages or rents."

    And this:

    https://boingboing.net/2017/06... [boingboing.net]

    "Rep Jeb Hensarling [R-TX/+1 202 225-3484/@RepHensarling] is the sponsor of HR 10, the Financial CHOICE Act of 2017, which will ban investors from putting petitions to the shareholders and board of publicly traded companies, except when investors own more than 1% of the company for at least three years."

  • Perfect! (Score:4, Insightful)

    by Seth Morabito ( 2273 ) on Wednesday June 28, 2017 @04:12PM (#54707731)

    Oh cool! Now we have two reports that draw opposite conclusions, so we can just pick whichever one we already agree with and ignore the other. Sweet!

  • Everyone be complacent to the ruling elite and things will be ok.
  • Ontario is also going to a $15 / min wage and it will cause nothing but problems. If people already can't get a full week of hours at $11, do they think they'll get more when the employeer is forced to pay them more? This will only cause wages to fall as hours get cut, to keep up with the fact that employeers are being forced to pay low / no skilled workers high wages, at least for what they do.
  • If there is work to be done, you will have to pay someone to do it, and that minimum will be $15/hr. If your business cannot afford that, then you will adapt and find some way to eliminate the need for such work. It's pretty simple, businesses trim up when payroll costs rise.

    If you needed to guarantee that every person has a basic income, then you have to work out a social program to provide that because minimum wage never promised to do that. Minimum wage only increases the bottom end of the amount of money labor gets per unit of work, it does not promise a chicken in every pot.

    Free market and businesses are incapable of feeding and clothing every person. If that's your only goal here, then minimum wage was the wrong tool. That people get their hours cut doesn't negate the fact that thousands of people have earned more money for a unit of work.

    There are only so many hours in a day. If you make more per hour, even if you can't fill every one of those hours with work currently you at least have those hours available to look for work or try to arrange for ways to save money. Working 10-15 hours a week at $15/hr and not having to spend money on childcare is probably better than working 20-30 hours a week at $7.25/hr and almost certainly needing to work out some arrangements for childcare.

  • by Gavagai80 ( 1275204 ) on Wednesday June 28, 2017 @05:22PM (#54708381) Homepage

    The bottom line is that the unemployment rate in Seattle is 3.1% (compared to 5.2% in Washington as a whole), and has actually been going down as the minimum wage increases have taken effect. Clearly the high minimum wage is not leading to massive unemployment as the service industry shutters all businesses and people beg for jobs on the street.

  • Minimum wage is not supposed to be a "living wage." McDonald's and the like are supposed to be the first job a person gets, not a lifetime career. You're supposed to learn a work ethic in a minimum wage job so you can move on and get a better job. $15 / hour prevents people from getting that first job because they have no skills and have to be taught everything. I might be able to support a minimum wage if there was a lower "training wage" for people with no skills in their first job.

As you will see, I told them, in no uncertain terms, to see Figure one. -- Dave "First Strike" Pare

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