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Earth Science

Earth Overshoot Day Came Early This Year. That's a Bad Thing. (popsci.com) 341

An anonymous reader shares a report: Earth's resources are limited. We only have so much water and food, let alone oil and gold. But humans are using more than Earth has to offer, and have been since 1970. In 2018, it's predicted we will use the equivalent of 1.7 Earths worth of resources -- which is, oh, almost a whole Earth more than we have. And the date at which we've consumed more than one Earth in a given year is called... Earth Overshoot Day.

In the 1960s, our consumption was almost perfectly synched to the Earth's resources, with humanity consuming one year's worth of Earth's resources in one year. But by 1971, that number slid backward, and has been sliding ever since. This year, 2018, saw the earliest Earth Overshoot Day yet: one Earth's worth of resources gobbled up by Aug. 1. (Last year, it happened on Aug. 2.) This doesn't mean that we've run out of clean water or timber today, and will have to live on scraps until New Year; it's that by exceeding the Earth's resources in August, we're bankrupting our future by consuming materials that are better off preserved for days to come.

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Earth Overshoot Day Came Early This Year. That's a Bad Thing.

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  • by Nick ( 109 )
    where is the link?
    • by AvitarX ( 172628 )

      There's a link that is to the right of the title, is that the one you're looking for?

      • That one leads to some "Update to privacy policy and how we use cookies." without any apparent means to continue. Both with and without javascript on, and no element of the page is blocked.

        • by msauve ( 701917 )
          There's a link immediately to the right of the headline (popsci.com). There's also a link in the body of the summary. Perhaps you need to try a different browser.
        • by AvitarX ( 172628 )

          Interesting, it leads straight to the article without a cookie warning for me.

  • by SuperKendall ( 25149 ) on Wednesday August 01, 2018 @03:49PM (#57051766)

    What are we really using more of that the Earth produces?

    The one thing MAY be oil, but we have hundreds of years worth (thanks to technical advancements) even if we were not converting to solar at a rapid clip.

    Speaking of technical advancements, we can easily produce food for the estimated 10 billion or so that is the steady state for the Earth's population - as long as we don't listen to anti-GMO activist luddites.

    Even if were were using "1.7 Earths" worth of any one resource, we could simply switch to mining them off-planet eventually as needed.

    Extraordinary claims demand extraordinary evidence, which this seems to have none of.

    • Re: (Score:3, Informative)

      by _Sharp'r_ ( 649297 )

      Here's the understatement of the year from the article:

      But it’s clear this holiday is about prompting reflection, not impeachable precision.

      Basically this "news" is that an environmental lobbying group wanted to declare that people use too many resources in their opinion.

      • Re: (Score:3, Insightful)

        by AmiMoJo ( 196126 )

        Basically this "comment" is that an denialist wants to stick their head in the sand for a few more years.

        • Re: (Score:3, Insightful)

          And this "comment" is that a doomsayer/Gaia worshiper claims that "THIS time we have it right!"... If you go by the doomsayer predictions of the last 40 years, we are 100% out of oil, most of us are dead, we cannot feed ourselves, we are either dying from the next ice age or boiling from runaway thermal, half our cities are underwater, and nuclear war has caused us all to die.

          But this time, it's different, right?

          • I got some numbers for you to chew on.

            2015-2017 are the hottest years on record on Earth. Citation: https://public.wmo.int/en/medi... [wmo.int]

            2018 is looking to be #4, but we can't actually say that without actually going through the whole year obviously; but last April was the third warmest on record: https://climate.nasa.gov/news/... [nasa.gov]

            The higher temperatures are affecting all crops, but their effects are most pronounced under Middle East and African Desert countries currently, but their effects should be closely ex

          • by AmiMoJo ( 196126 )

            This is a common denier tactic - exaggerate all the arguments made by the scientific community, the peer reviewed science. Then claim that it was all proven wrong.

    • Re: (Score:3, Interesting)

      by lgw ( 121541 )

      But Malthus!

      "There's not enough resources and we're all going to die!!!eleventy!!" has been wrong for 120 years and counting. Oddly enough, it's never overpopulation in predominately White nations that people seems to fret about. Just a coincidence, I'm sure.

      The only real challenge for 10B on Earth (as first-world nations) is power generation, as only solar and fusion can scale to that level, and fusion will always be "just 20 years away". Still, if there's too much NIMBYism, we can just build the solar

      • Claiming that Malthus "has been wrong for 120 years" shows you have no idea what you are talking about (for one thing I believe you want to say "220 years" since "An Essay on the Principle of Population" was written in 1798).

        Malthus was describing the actual state of affairs of the world in which he lived, and which included all of human history up to that time, and remained correct for the next 140 years everywhere, and then was still correct for another 15 years for most of the world.

        Agricultural producti

    • by angel'o'sphere ( 80593 ) <<angelo.schneider> <at> <oomentor.de>> on Wednesday August 01, 2018 @04:46PM (#57052288) Journal

      we can easily produce food for the estimated 10 billion or so that is the steady state for the Earth's population - as long as we don't listen to anti-GMO activist luddites.
      There is no point in converting the earth into a desert and then planting "desert proof" GMO food there ...

      The planet easily can harbour 30, perhaps 50 billion people, and we only need sustainable agriculture and fishing to feed them. But no worries, population will probably plateau around 9 - 10 billion and then drop and stabilize around perhaps 6 billion.

      For all that we don't need GMO ... we only have to stop greed.

      • The planet easily can harbour 30, perhaps 50 billion people

        {Citation needed}

      • Greed is a defining characteristic of our species. It's what drove us out of the trees, it's what spurred us forward technologically. Greed is why we plant crops, far more than we could ever eat, or that our family could consume. Greed is what what drives us to make sure the water is clean and the wastes are properly organized. It's why you can sit on a computer/phone somewhere and imply that greed is the problem.

        Greed isn't the problem. Indeed, it could be said to the only good thing about our speci

    • Extraordinary claims demand extraordinary evidence, which this seems to have none of.
      No it does not. Evidence is evidence!

    • by Ichijo ( 607641 )

      We are also using groundwater faster than nature can replace it. Wells are running dry, so we've been digging them deeper and deeper.

      Saying that technological advancements will fix the problem places the burden on our children and grandchildren to solve it. That's an astonishingly selfish thing to do.

      • Water is water (Score:3, Insightful)

        by SuperKendall ( 25149 )

        "Using up groundwater" is meaningless long term, since in the end it can easily be piped inland from the oceans. Once you have enough solar power why not desalination plants all along the coast? Or are you worried about dropping the sea level HA HA HA.

        If water overuse were actually a problem anywhere in a first world country it would cost 10x what it does today and laws would be frowned upon. Until ANYONE acts like there is actually a problem there is obviously not a real problem, just made up scenarios f

        • by Ichijo ( 607641 )

          in the end [freshwater] can easily be piped inland from the oceans

          If it were so easy, everyone would be doing it!

          it recognizes a simple truth that technology advances improve life

          False [fortune.com].

          • We don't desalinate in California because we're worried about putting salt into the oceans [pacinst.org]. Yes, brine releases in the ocean is the big concern. So rather than deal with concept that salinity may increase a percent or two over a tiny area, we'd rather pump all the ground dry, route rivers everywhere, and ration the crap out of water - while simultaneously halting farming in some of the most productive land in the US.
        • Capetown [wikipedia.org], Brisbane [wikipedia.org]....

          Running low on water sucks. But it isn't over-use that causes the worst problems, but a sudden reduction in supply.

  • by Rick Schumann ( 4662797 ) on Wednesday August 01, 2018 @03:51PM (#57051780) Journal
    Note I said "as it continues", and not 'if it continues' -- because 7,000,000,000 people aren't going to do anything any different tomorrow than they're doing today, not at least until it's impossible for them to do so.

    There will be an extinction-level event -- in the form of WARS. Wars have very often been waged over resources. Over time, as there are more and more humans alive at the same time (see above: "people aren't going to do anything any different tomorrow.."; they'll keep breeding), available resources dwindle, and effects from global warming puts more environmental stress on all life, countries with a standing military won't just sit still and wait to starve to death or die of dehydration, they'll attack their neighbors to secure their resources. When will this happen? Could start tomorrow, could be anytime within the next, say, 50 to 100 years. But it'll happen unless something else happens to stop it.
    • It seems more effective to simply have a corporation move into the neighboring country and mine the resources and ship them back. Because that is what happens now.
      • I don't think you're understanding me. When your country and the neighboring countries are all short on resources, people are going hungry and/or don't have enough potable water to go around, there are no 'business deals' to be made. You're thinking like it's 2018, and I'm talking about 2118 or 2218.
    • by jeff4747 ( 256583 ) on Wednesday August 01, 2018 @04:45PM (#57052272)

      The thing is, people aren't breeding. Or more precisely, we are doing a lot less breeding than we used to.

      The developed world, except for the US, is below replacement rate. Replacement rate is about 2.1 children per woman (1 to replace the woman, 1 to replace the man, 0.1 to replace the people who die before having children or are infertile). The US is at about 2.3. Much of Europe is at 1.8-2.0. Populations in these countries are only stable or climbing due to immigration from the developing world.

      In the developing world, birth rate is plummeting as women get better education and access to birth control. It's still above replacement rate, but it's way down from what it used to be and is still trending downward.

      "Number of humans on the planet" is not yet a solved problem, but it's in the process of getting solved.

  • by Lije Baley ( 88936 ) on Wednesday August 01, 2018 @03:53PM (#57051806)

    This article set my BS detector on fire and they don't seem to care about all of that smoke.

  • by NEDHead ( 1651195 ) on Wednesday August 01, 2018 @03:55PM (#57051832)

    What did they ever do for us?

    • Re: (Score:2, Insightful)

      by Archtech ( 159117 )

      What did they ever do for us?

      And there you have it. Homo Sapiens does not deserve to survive. Not ethically, and certainly not because of their "intelligence".

    • by MrKaos ( 858439 )

      What did they ever do for us?

      We could eat them.

  • Everything you need to know about this calculation is summed up in the infographic. To maximize the time until Earth Overshoot day, we should all live like people in Cuba, Columbia, Jamaica, and Vietnam.

    Jokes about the US population voting to live more like Jamaicans aside, resource shortages are irrelevant in an economically free society [juliansimon.com] because free people solve issues faster than they become serious, leading to ever-cheaper resources. Even of limited ones and "low hanging fruit", thanks to substitution

  • by Applehu Akbar ( 2968043 ) on Wednesday August 01, 2018 @04:43PM (#57052264)

    The "overshoot day" calculation is rather fuzzy, but the general idea is to determine the date at which each country uses up a year's worth of the planet's resources. According to the breakdown by country, the countries that do the best job of living within their ecological means are Vietnam (Dec 21), Jamaica (Dec 13), Cuba (Nov 19) and Colombia (Nov 17). Feel like moving to any of those paradises?

    The US and Canada both poop out, resource-wise in mid-March, while Australia and most Scandinavian countries hold out until late March to early April. The rest of Europe goes resource-negative in May (May 2 for Germany, which has plowed most of its national budget into running on renewables). And what is it that makes little Luxembourg go negative on Feb 19?

    • The actual problem is we have no clue how to calculate that.
    • I was wondering the same thing. How the hell do you go negative in the first month?
    • Fuzzy?? It's completely undefined! What did US run out of in March? Food? No, there's plenty more. Water? Land? Lithium salts? The article mentions electricity, but since the Earth produces approximately zero usable electricity, that's just silly.

      Not to say the concept is completely silly -- We've always known that humans use engineering to shore up where mother earth falls short; that's not news. But if you're gonna put numbers and dates to those things, you need to define what exactly you're measuring.

  • Comment removed (Score:5, Insightful)

    by account_deleted ( 4530225 ) on Wednesday August 01, 2018 @04:55PM (#57052346)
    Comment removed based on user account deletion
  • worlds population was 3.762 billion in 1971 and is now 7.442 billion, that half calculation might not be far off
  • Or maybe there is a bug in their calculations which directly equates the Unix timestamp to world resource consumption!

    (negative values prior to 1970, positive values after... bad joke, i'll see myself out)

  • by Zorro ( 15797 ) on Wednesday August 01, 2018 @05:48PM (#57052714)

    We just have to kill 1/2 the population of the Earth.

    That should fix it!

  • by LynnwoodRooster ( 966895 ) on Wednesday August 01, 2018 @06:55PM (#57053104) Journal
    All the paper and water needed for toilets, all the mining, iron, steel plastics, and asphalt for the pipes and infrastructure, and we're missing the big die-offs from the regular cholera and typhoid outbreaks. It's all the toilet's fault!
  • We have real issues such as AGW, or hastened Extinction of species but then we have groups like this that turn minor issues into disasters. Running out of gold? Ah nope. Likewise , we have plenty of timber, water, air, etc.

They are called computers simply because computation is the only significant job that has so far been given to them.

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