Cryptocurrency's 80 Percent Plunge Is Now Worse Than the Dot-Com Crash (bloombergquint.com) 178
Zorro shares a report from BloombergQuint: The Great Crypto Crash of 2018 looks more and more like one for the record books. As virtual currencies plumbed new depths on Wednesday, the MVIS CryptoCompare Digital Assets 10 Index extended its collapse from a January high to 80 percent. The tumble has now surpassed the Nasdaq Composite Index's 78 percent peak-to-trough decline after the dot-com bubble burst in 2000. Like their predecessors during the Internet-stock boom almost two decades ago, cryptocurrency investors who bet big on a seemingly revolutionary technology are suffering a painful reality check, particularly those in many secondary tokens, so-called alt-coins.
"It just shows what a massive, speculative bubble the whole crypto thing was -- as many of us at the time warned," said Neil Wilson, chief market analyst in London for Markets.com, a foreign-exchange trading platform. "It's a very likely a winner takes all market -- Bitcoin currently most likely." Wednesday's losses were led by Ether, the second-largest virtual currency. It fell 6 percent to $171.15 at 7:50 a.m. in New York, extending this month's retreat to 40 percent. Bitcoin was little changed, while the MVIS CryptoCompare index fell 3.8 percent. The value of all virtual currencies tracked by CoinMarketCap.com sank to $187 billion, a 10-month low. "Crypto bulls dismiss negative comparisons to the dot-com era by pointing to the Nasdaq Composite's recovery to fresh highs 15 years later, and to the internet's enormous impact on society," reports BloombergQuint. "They also note that Bitcoin has rebounded from past crashes of similar magnitude. But even if the optimists prove right and cryptocurrencies eventually transform the world, this year's selloff has underscored that progress is unlikely to be smooth."
"It just shows what a massive, speculative bubble the whole crypto thing was -- as many of us at the time warned," said Neil Wilson, chief market analyst in London for Markets.com, a foreign-exchange trading platform. "It's a very likely a winner takes all market -- Bitcoin currently most likely." Wednesday's losses were led by Ether, the second-largest virtual currency. It fell 6 percent to $171.15 at 7:50 a.m. in New York, extending this month's retreat to 40 percent. Bitcoin was little changed, while the MVIS CryptoCompare index fell 3.8 percent. The value of all virtual currencies tracked by CoinMarketCap.com sank to $187 billion, a 10-month low. "Crypto bulls dismiss negative comparisons to the dot-com era by pointing to the Nasdaq Composite's recovery to fresh highs 15 years later, and to the internet's enormous impact on society," reports BloombergQuint. "They also note that Bitcoin has rebounded from past crashes of similar magnitude. But even if the optimists prove right and cryptocurrencies eventually transform the world, this year's selloff has underscored that progress is unlikely to be smooth."
There is an upside (Score:3)
All of those people stealing bitcoins just got shafted a lot harder than the average small-scale owner. And it makes payout for all that ransomware WAY cheaper!
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Duh. It was all tulip-bulb mania and we all knew about it. Well, WORSE, than tulip-bulb mania since tulips at least look nice. Well I guess some people can also be fascinated by crypto hash numbers. Maybe they can print and frame theirs and put it on the wall.
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You don't make money by buying crypto and holding it. That time has passed and you basically won the lottery if that happened. Now you buy and sell just like the stock market. It is absolutely no different. Of all the sites on the internet the amount of people shitting on crypto here is astounding. There are people here who refuse to have a bank account and want their employer to pay them in cash. You'd think they would be all for anonymous ways to transfer funds. And no Bitcoin is not anonymous and was nev
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The ongoing trend is certainly not upwards.
I do not see the point (Score:4, Insightful)
Re:I do not see the point (Score:5, Insightful)
It's not the possible recovery or lack thereof that is the take-away from this. There's absolutely no way any cryptocurrency will ever gain a foothold as a currency used for every day transactions if the best it can offer is, as you said, 80% price plunges every two or three years. It's all speculative and highly volatile. Other than suckers continually and cyclically losing their shirts by believing the unregulated pump-n-dump schemes occurring around cryptocurrencies everyone is going to quickly lose interest and move their investment capital over to more secure financial products.
Volatility? (Score:2)
There's absolutely no way any cryptocurrency will ever gain a foothold as a currency used for every day transactions if the best it can offer is, as you said, 80% price plunges every two or three years.
That still wouldn't be a problem if transactions were quick, cheap, and you'd have some intermediate store of value.
Say I receive X Bitcoin as payment for a job, and buy X Bitcoin worth of coffee beans for that. Then I sit on that for a year (Bitcoin goes up to 15x what it was when I bought the coffee beans), I sell the coffee beans for 1/15X worth of Bitcoin, and exchange that into whatever 1/15X Bitcoin is worth then. Most likely, somewhere near the price of that stack of coffee beans I started with.
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There's absolutely no way any cryptocurrency will ever gain a foothold as a currency used for every day transactions if the best it can offer is, as you said, 80% price plunges every two or three years.
That still wouldn't be a problem if transactions were quick, cheap, and you'd have some intermediate store of value.
Say I receive X Bitcoin as payment for a job, and buy X Bitcoin worth of coffee beans for that. Then I sit on that for a year (Bitcoin goes up to 15x what it was when I bought the coffee beans), I sell the coffee beans for 1/15X worth of Bitcoin, and exchange that into whatever 1/15X Bitcoin is worth then. Most likely, somewhere near the price of that stack of coffee beans I started with.
That would be entirely feasible if transaction costs were low, transactions quick, with enough intermediate stores of value to choose from. But from what I've read transactions are slow and/or costly. Meaning the exchange rate may go up or down 10-20% or more while I'm waiting for a transaction to go through. And for small exchanges, transaction costs may be a significant part of the total. Not to mention the limit # of places that will take Bitcoin as payment. That is why it's no use for every day transactions.
That is not what Bitcoin is supposed to be though. Bitcoin is a medium of exchange, its value pegged to something like the USD is irrelevant. Everyone trying to speculatively make it an investment, or valuable on its own....fuck 'em.
Online gambling isn't legal in most US states. For those of us who live 18 hours away from somewhere with a casino and want to do some gambling, we have grey market casinos with licenses in Curacao, or Malta, or Costa Rica, who then serve American customers. Many of these us
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So what you're saying is that bitcoin is good for fuckwits who think that gambling isn't a cretinous fucking thing to do?
That's pretty much what I thought about bitcoin anyway.
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How about applications where some of the advantages of Cryptocurrencies matter more than the disadvantage of volatility?
I'm thinking of anonymity provided by coins such as Monero or Zcash. Could those applications maybe reach a volume sufficient to stabilize the respective currencies value against other goods, especially good often traded against those currencies?
I am not familiar with the current darknet market situation. Maybe someone who knows can tell use if goods there are traded against fixed cryptocu
Re: I do not see the point (Score:2)
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No. It has to be overall more practical than paying the blackmarket price for dollars or euros from your friendly neighborhood mafia guy. The proliferation of cell phones makes this seem plausible. But ultimately, most regular citizens will have to find someone who can exchange fistfuls of the crappy national currency into crypto and back again some day down the road, which is probably the very same friendly neighborhood mafia guy.
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This is the 4th or 5th time it's plunged like this(percentage basis) since 2010. Why is the outcome this time different? more participants? more awareness? higher market caps? all of those things also bring along new players, lobbyists, proponents and capability to ensure the cycle repeats at some point.
It's the number of trades and the number of ask/bid offers (what the "market" calls liquidity) that's diffrent. Increased liquidity should lead to more stable prices as the gap between ask/bid should decrease and a single trade affects the price less. The decreased risk of getting stuck should lead to a premium compared to other less liquid assets. The prime example of a liquid asset is the usd, it's traded all the time and can practically be exchanged to any other asset all over the world. That's why when
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Higher market caps, and more maturity. With more people involved, more transactions, and more history, there should be less volatility. The market cap means it's more important. Look at it this way, it went from having the market cap and trades per day of a penny stock, to the market cap and trades per day of a major corporation. Those two trade pretty differently.
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While that's true from a currency point of view, I actually was talking about transactions that treated bitcoin as a commodity worth of trading. After all, there are a lot of transactions in hyperinflationary areas too, but very few transactions to and from hard currencies.
Re:I do not see the point (Score:5, Insightful)
This is the 4th or 5th time it's plunged like this(percentage basis) since 2010. Why is the outcome this time different?
What's different this time is the money supply in crypto has exploded. This was totally not supposed to happen, because each brand of crypto is designed to max out at a mathematically limited number of coins.
At first, this worked, and actually too well. While fiat money can be used as for transactions because the money supply expands as the economy it's based on expands, the most popular cryptos, being in limited supply, began to rise in price (fewer coins to buy the same good). This caused crypto to change from currency to digital investment. As the speculative fever bubbled, entrepreneurs began to offer more new currencies. Crypto "investors" began to treat each one as though it were a new penny stock on the Utah Mining Exchange. Each currency remains in limited supply, but traders kept moving into new currencies, not realizing that this process is like printing Venezuelan fiat banknotes.
Suddenly, people are waking up to what has happened.
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You do realise that crypto-"currencies" are the ultimate in fiat currency, right? created from nothing, worth nothing, and not even useful as any kind of currency.
only moron gold-bugs use the term "fiat currency" in any non-sarcastic or non-ironic way.
From the Book of Cryptogenesis:
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A fiat currency is one whose value in trade for goods is specified by some nation's central bank, which is supposed to manage the supply of that currency so that the ratio of coins to goods changes as little as possible in everyday life. Some countries do really well at this (Switzerland), most of them various degrees of less well, while a few (Zimbabwe, Venezuela) allow the money supply to explode as a politically easy way of raising government revenue.
The opposite of fiat currency is pegging the supply of
Difference - natural sellers - electric bills (Score:4, Insightful)
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Eventually people might furnish themselves with a clue that cryptocurrencies are hyped as an "investment" when in actuality they're just crowd-sourced ponzi / pyramid schemes or in some instances outright scams (many ICOs).
Good (Score:1)
Money printing machine (Score:1)
Why don't governments allow people to print real money? Just make printing each note a unique and a complicated process that lower intellect folks could barely print off minimum wages/well fare, and creative minds can prosper.
Re: Money printing machine (Score:2)
Here's the thing though (Score:5, Insightful)
NASDAQ companies - those that survived - actually produce goods and services; things of value that people want. Recovery is *almost* guaranteed as those businesses recover.
Cryptocurrencies offer nothing but themselves as the product, and once the public loses faith in their value and ability to exchange them, they have nothing to base a recovery on. All they can hope for is more speculation from people too dumb to learn the lesson the first time.
=Smidge=
Goods and services? (Score:1)
Like being able to transfer value across the Internet without a centralized authority? That kind of good or service?
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Well (a) most people don't have a real need to cut the "central authority" out of the picture. People who trade in contraband and the illegal activities, sure. But the vast majority of the economy doesn't need it.
(b) There are real downsides to cutting out the central authority. One of them is volatility, which I've been saying all along but during the speculative bubble people saw that as an upside.
Actually there would be some real advantages to a government-backed cryptocurrency, although it would lac
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Nobody would trust such a currency. That's why blockchains were invented.
Fuck lawyers, fuck courts.
Cryptocurrencies need debugging, but eventually they will take away government's ability to print money. Which has long been needed.
Governments pretty much have to run national militaries and police. The only reason they control currency is history and inertia. Think of cryptocurrency as a much needed check on government power.
It's a long term hope though. Not this decade, nore the next. Might be the
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Said everyone when Bitcoin was worth pennies, then $10, $100, $1000, $5000, etc. The market is correcting after an unsustainable bubble. As long as crypto exchanges exist then crypto will be worth something.
um, that's called "gambling" (Score:1)
When a bunch of people decide to play musical chairs, they are gambling on whose gonna get cast aside and whose going to get a chair. That's cryptocurrency, except that people used real money to buy their spot in the game.
As long as such a game goes on, people who've already "invested" (bought-in to the poker game) imagine that they are "investing" rather than gambling, and they will happily encourage more people to buy-in (which drives up the value of the crypto tokens of those who already own them). Unlik
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Cryptocurrencies offer nothing but themselves as the product,
Isn't that literally the definition of a Ponzi scam?
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So it would be more like Mt. Gox which lost a ton of bitcoins and tried to ponzi their way through by accepting more deposits to pay out the people that wanted to cash out.
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The same can be said for any fiat currency. The main difference between crypto currencies and fiat currencies is the crypto currencies are infinitively more useful. It doesn't really matter what the price of a Bitcoin is to be useful for those actually utilizing it for what was intended. Yes- crypto currencies are over-hyped by investors, but it doesn't change the fact they are extremely useful in reducing transactional costs of doing business. This is why despite the hype and crash we continue to see new b
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IIRC, most dotcoms didn't produce anything that people wanted to pay for.
Tulips.... (Score:2, Funny)
...get yer tulips....cheap!
Dont be ridiculous. (Score:4, Insightful)
Tulips have at least some base value, and dont consume continuous and massive amounts of energy just to allow their sale to be recorded. ;)
Tulips are a WAY more sensible investment than Cryptocurrencies
BTW, the story is also BS. The .com crash wiped many many more investors (well, wiped out in a way, because money is only transferred, there were just as many winners - this is often forgotten). A lot of this 'lost value' in cryptocurrencies was never traded, it was just huge percentages of the total coins held by a few whales.
ie: those static amounts went up, went down, but were never realized. This makes a big difference.
Then again, boom bust cycles are a great tool for those in control to extract money from the middle classes - who are always the investors who lose out (and dont get bailed out, ever..) - which is why you will never see effective regulation of such things.
Re:Dont be ridiculous. (Score:4, Insightful)
I could make up a billion digital tokens, sell 10 of them for $100 each. Then my "market cap" is $100 Billion....then when my tokens fall to 0, that's $100 Billion in value wiped out. At least the way these people are pretending things work.
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No. $100bn in value is not wiped out. $100bn of value was wiped out of your digital tokens. The net value stays in your pocket because you were smart enough to peg that value against something other than what is being talked about.
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No. The total dollars were the same. The number of sellers was much smaller than the number of buyers. Cause most people weren't buying a billion dollars in stock, but some people were certainly selling it.
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because money is only transferred
No. Money can be created and destroyed, it happens every day. A bank issues you a loan, which you hand over to a vendor, who deposits that money in their account. And that process can run in reverse too. This process creates both an Asset and a Liability in the banking sectors chart of accounts at the same time.
If you then repay or default on your loan, this really does destroy money.
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The negative and positive cancel out, so nothing has been created or destroyed in your example, only converted.
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That's the equivalent of saying that energy is created when you raise an object in the air because you can do useful work when it falls. In reality, the conservation of energy hasn't been breached at all.
Fractional banking (Score:2)
You forget the effect of fractional banking. To make a 100 dollar loan the bank doesnt hae to have 100 dollars, they can hold 15 dollars in reserve and make a 100 dollar loan. So say a bank A started with 60 dollars, they make loans of 400 dollars, the folks who took the loans deposited it in Bank B. Bank B now has 400 dolars of reserves, they can now make 2400 dollars of loans to customers who deposit in Bank A. Bank A now has 2400 dollars in reserves and can make 14400 dollars of loans and so on.
To paraph
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Which is why fractional banking exists. Instead of lending their reserves, they create money based on amount of reserves they hold.
Which means that reserves they hold have to be a certain fraction of total amount lent out. Hence the name.
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Hair splitting. One is part of the other.
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Basic lesson in Currency (Score:3, Informative)
"Everything is worth what its purchaser will pay for it." - Publius Syrus
When many want to buy crypto-currency, and few are willing to sell, price goes up. We saw that.
When few want to buy crypto-currency, while many are looking to sell, price goes down. Now, we're seeing this.
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Your ability to refute with a comment containing interesting information is just... amazing!
Blockchain is a fascinating tech (Score:2)
It appears to have great possibilities to solve some problems
Unfortunately, today's crypto currencies seem to only be used for speculation, or to buy drugs or other black market stuff
One of my good friends is a glassworker. He's trying to create an alternative currency based on tokens that are collectable, handmade pieces of art http://www.astarshipineverygar... [astarshipi...garage.com]
In theory, I like alternative currencies
In practice, I'm well aware of the difficulties
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I mean, Beanie Babies and Magic cards aren't handmade, but they've both fit a similar role before.
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The key problem is the assumption that blockchain and currency are linked.
Blockchain is a revision control system with support for branches and merging. It can be used anywhere a revision control system can be used.
It is also a logging system and can be used anywhere you create logs
That basically covers incremental backups, version control in documents and software, profiling of non-uniform resources and probably many other things, all of which are more interesting than money. Money is a means to an end, it
Cool tech with criminal rep also BitTorrent's prob (Score:2)
Likewise, BitTorrent is cool for downloads not requiring a central server, doing large downloads in pieces, etc - but catches hell for association with copyright infringement
Magic card analogy (Score:2)
A sibling post mentioned Beanie Babies and Magic cards.
The volatility there is in extremely powerful old cards printed in very small quantities (at least tiny amounts compared to the current playerbase)
WotC won't reprint those because of a promise not to after an old wave of reprints crashed prices but this causes its own problems.
The last several years of new cards hasn't been so crazy.
Playing the game isn't exactly intrinsic value but it's more than crypto or Beanie Babies have
Doesn't look that apocolyptic to me... (Score:5, Interesting)
I just looked and the "currency" bitcoin is still worth $6355 per coin.
I mean i threw them in the garbage back in the day when they were worth only a few cents per coin, so i would think that its still MASSIVELY over valued and can fall much, much further.
I don't think they'll drop too far (Score:3)
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they're still used to buy drugs, which keeps the value up. Also money laundering. Now, if the gov't cracks down on the laundering plus legalizes drugs...
The risk for cryptos isn't the government cutting down on laundering and/or drug legalization.
It's the handful of legit merchants going away.
Once the only uses of bitcoin are speculation and illegal activity governments start looking at shutting down the exchanges.
When the exchanges go away even the criminals stop using it because they can't turn their bitcoin into fiat currency.
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everyone should be forced to use honest to goodness U.S. dollars which can't be used to buy such things.
Oh wait, the global black market moves 2 trillion dollars a year, more than TEN times the value of all crypto currencies combined.
I think cc are stupid, but the argument of empowering crime pales next to what "real money" is doing.
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Only if you can find someone willing to buy it off you. Think about why [wikipedia.org] someone would buy your bitcoin at that pricetag.
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Nah (Score:2)
Bitcoin is up almost 55% year-on-year.
Yes, it's volatile. No, it hasn't crashed.
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The market value of flint today is considerably higher than it was in the Neolithic. And?
No its not (Score:2)
In the Neolithic Age with handtools a person might spend an entire week creating a stone knife. Now it can be made on a CNC machine in 5 minutes and you can order it on Amazon in 30 secs and lets add in another 5 minutes of work done by your USPS delivery guy to get it into your hand. A flint knife is now worth 15 minutes of time instead of a week. Things are way cheaper. We all live pretty much like kings of a bygone era
WinkleVi brothers Cause Crash (Score:2)
It was all going so well until the WikleVI decided to open Gemini and have funds which they claim are pegged to the dollar.
You CAN'T HAVE an alt.coin or digital fund pegged to the dollar without being... the US Government!!! I know, it seems silly to have to say it, but if all you had to do was invent a name... maybe something stupid... like "twoface" or "the joker" or "the riddler" or "gemini" or "Winklevii" and then issue coinage and claim it's worth EXACTLY a dollar because "we're storing dollars"... ..
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In fact, that has happened and was the plan, called a "currency board". It tends to work for a while, until it doesn't, because they don't really have as much as they wanted or are supposed to.
http://cepr.net/documents/publications/exchange-rates-latin-america-2010-04.pdf
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You can peg whatever you like to the dollar. It means you exchange X tokens for 1 dollar.
Zimbabwe and China peg their currency to the dollar. The gold standard worked by pegging one ounce of gold to some number of dollars and then having everyone peg their currency to the dollar.
So in 1920, almost every currency on Earth was pegged to the dollar and none of them were the U.S. government.
Come on, exchange rate mechanisms aren't that hard.
What you do is you buy/sell tokens to artificially regulate demand to s
Alternate headline: US dollar soars against crypto (Score:3, Interesting)
It's equally valid to say that cash has increased in value by 400% against cryptocurrency. You should buy dollars now! Disclaimer: some cryptocurrency people are saying that the current value of cash is just a bubble.
In other news, cash held fairly steady against other easily tradable commodities, with no major movement.
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For certain definition of worse (Score:2)
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Every 10 yrs or so a large cohort of folks hit retirement, take their 401Ks out of the safe investments and hand it over to hedge funds to get better returns. The hedge funds need to chase returns so they go after the speculative stuff and fuel a boom - 1999, 2008, 2017. Tech, real estate,crypto. The eventual bust is natural when something blows up so quickly overshoot will happen.
The next bubble is in 2026-27.
Now whether a bubble is constructive or destructive depends on whether the hedge funds ran after t
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Don't quit your day job and try to become an investment advisor. You understand fuckall.
Nothing of value lost (Score:3)
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money is not lost in the stock market either, for every winner there is a loser. crypto currencies are no different
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I'm sure pets.com burned some real world resources, electricity for some servers if nothing else, but not like bitcoin does.
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yes it is, you're not thinking of everything if you believe that. For every dollar given, someone gets a dollar, without exception. back to economics class, kid
Boo focking hoo (Score:1)
Cry me some crypto-tears. Buy more AI stock to take your mind off it.
More interesting than the data suggests (Score:2)
But I have not seen anything suggesting that much of the crypto market is leveraged. This suggests two things. One that this plummet is actually more fundamental. But, that false recoveries are going to distinguish this crash mor
Yep (Score:2, Insightful)
This article is sponsored by central banks.
Also, it's not factually correct: Bitcoin has lost 67% of its value (which was primarily pumped by an unnatural spike in interest) and I couldn't care less about altcoins which are colloquially called shitcoins - most of shitcoins serve exactly zero purpose and were created as a means of raising capital and running away with it.
Full-time crypto trader? (Score:2)
This is part of the reason when a guy who wanted to be my housemate said his job was a "full-time crypto trader" I passed him over. I wasn't interested in someone who's primary source of income was a ephemeral fad which would inevitably leave me with a housemate who's not able to pay his share.
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It's a bad idea to talk publicly about how much crypto you hold; you become a target.
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Use fiat or go to jail. That's one difference (Score:4, Insightful)
> no different than gold or any fiat currency.
If you have any income, you have to pay taxes in fiat currency.
If you keep refusing to pay, eventually they'll put you in jail (after they first seize your assets). Almost everyone NEEDS fiat currency, so that's one big difference. There will always be someone who needs to pay taxes, so there will always be someone who needs dollars. They'll give me something of value in exchange for my dollars in order to pay their taxes.
Pop the battery out of your phone for a second. See those shiny things where the battery connects to the phone? That's gold, it's not Buttcoin. Have any computer motherboard or PC card laying around? See that shiny yellow stuff? That's gold. Gold is needed for real, actually valuable uses.
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Disingenuous. Gold has some minor industrial uses, but obviously that's not what drives the price.
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Depends whether you define Jewellery as industrial use or investments. Traditionally women could not own property but could own Jewellery. Gold was their 401K, homestead and Savings plan. Now women in the west own real property so they may not care about Gold as an investment but then again most of the worlds gold jewelery is owned in India and in India gold is still an investment.
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I don't understand it either. But then again everyone on here was saying how badly the iPod was going to flop when it was released. I think a lot of the posters here couldn't even fit in over at 4chan.
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https://slashdot.org/story/01/... [slashdot.org]
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Keep shaking your fist at the clouds old man.