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Earth The Almighty Buck United States Science

New Study Finds Incredibly High Carbon Pollution Costs -- Especially For the US and India (theguardian.com) 190

An anonymous reader quotes a report from The Guardian: A new study led by UC San Diego's Katharine Ricke published in Nature Climate Change found that not only is the global social cost of carbon dramatically higher than the federal estimate ($37 per ton) -- probably between $177 and $805 per ton, most likely $417 -- but that the cost to America is around $50 per ton. That's the second-highest in the world behind India's $90, and is also higher than the current federal estimate for the global social cost of carbon. That's a remarkable conclusion worth repeating. Ricke's team found that the cost of carbon pollution to just the United States is probably higher than its government's current estimate of costs to the entire world. And the actual global cost is more than 10 times higher than the federal estimate.

[The Guardian's Dana Nuccitelli] asked Ricke to describe her team's approach in this study: To calculate social cost of carbon, you need to answer four questions in sequence:
1. How would the economy change with no climate change (including GHG emissions)?
2. How does the Earth system respond to emissions of carbon dioxide?
3. How does the economy respond to changes in the Earth system?
4. How should we value losses today vs. in (for example) 100 years?

The team answered these questions using four "modules": a socio-economic module to answer the first question, a climate module to address the second, a damages module to investigate the third, and a discounting module to tackle the fourth.

That study detailed the relationship between a country's average temperature and its per capita GDP, finding a sweet spot around 13C (55F). That's the optimal temperature for human economic productivity. Economies in countries with lower average temperatures like Canada and Russia would benefit from additional warming, but it would slow economic growth for nations closer to the equator with hotter temperatures. The United States is currently right near the peak temperature, whereas many European countries like Germany, the UK, and France are 3-5C cooler, and a bit below the ideal economic temperature. So, continued global warming is worse for the US economy than Europe's.

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New Study Finds Incredibly High Carbon Pollution Costs -- Especially For the US and India

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  • by rsilvergun ( 571051 ) on Tuesday October 02, 2018 @11:07PM (#57415536)
    and I still need gas to get to work. Would I like a public transportation system? You bet. Am I going to get one with the level of corruption in my country? Hell no.

    What's frustrating is the folks demanding a "free market" solution to the problem. Maybe there will be one like there was for getting lead out of gas. After decades and decades of damage done to people's health and well being (and if crime statistics are to be believed our entire nation). What I'm saying is the free market is _slow_. I'll be dead before it fixes things. Probably from Lung cancer.
    • Re: (Score:1, Informative)

      by Anonymous Coward

      You live in a state where each and every one of the goofball things you believe in is voted into office.

      Yet they spend $100 billion to, um, not build a monorail or whatever that thing was.

      So, if every one of your goofball ideas is supported and voted on --- and it still ain't workin ...

      What have we learned today?

      • because it's going to be empty for about 10-20 years while people switch over. It's not an over night thing. People's lives are built around cars. It takes decades to change it. If you build it they will come, but they'll come _slowly_. You have to convince the American Taxpayer to spend billions on public transport that's going to be almost completely unused for a couple of decades. Good luck with that.
    • Would I like a public transportation system? You bet. Am I going to get one with the level of corruption in my country?

      If you can't beat 'em, join 'em -- can't you buy a few buses, grease a few palms, hire a few drivers, and start your own public transit system?

    • Re: (Score:3, Insightful)

      by El Cubano ( 631386 )

      ... with the level of corruption in my country? Hell no.

      What's frustrating is the folks demanding a "free market" solution to the problem.

      As you point out, there are times the free market can be slow. However, absent some external distortion (e.g., the tax code, monopoly, burdensome/unfair regulation, etc.) the free market is by far the most effective and efficient (from a utilization of capital perspective) way to achieve an optimal solution.

      In the same way that the scientific method is inherently unbiased, the free market is inherently free of corruption. Now, since people manage to bias the scientific method, you can bet that they also m

      • by religionofpeas ( 4511805 ) on Wednesday October 03, 2018 @01:44AM (#57415986)

        the free market is inherently free of corruption

        If you don't control the free market, you get concentration of power. If you do control the free market, you get corruption.

        • If you don't control the free market, you get concentration of power. If you do control the free market, you get corruption.

          If you don't control the market, you will get corruption. If you do control the market, you may get corruption.

      • because from where I'm sitting at it's not. The free market has nothing to do with our transportation system. Our roads were built with tax payer dollars, oil is secured with our military and it's production heavily subsidized. Even the suburbs are heavily subsidized (the expensive part of prepping the land, running gas, water & electric is all done by the gov't. That's the big reason housing isn't affordable anymore, we stopped doing that in the late 90s).

        The difference is that public transport isn
    • What's frustrating is the folks demanding a "free market" solution to the problem. Maybe there will be one like there was for getting lead out of gas.

      We don't call it a "free market" solution when it's driven by legislation and not by demand. The People demanded cheap gasoline, but The Government demanded removal of lead from gasoline.

  • Those Chinese hoaxers are thorough, aren't they?
  • So tax it! (Score:3, Insightful)

    by Gravis Zero ( 934156 ) on Tuesday October 02, 2018 @11:22PM (#57415590)

    Look, I know we've built our societies on CO2 belching cars and CO2 diarrhetic energy production but it's a real problem that we need to fix. We have the technology to build carbon capture systems remove CO2 from the air with 1000x the efficacy of trees (per square meter) [futurism.com] but it needs to be built and maintained. Therefore it seems only logical that there be a tax on all the things that produce CO2 so that money can be used to capture it. Obviously, this will make lower and non-polluting products far more attractive as they will be cheaper.

    The solution is known and it's extremely frustrating that there is a total lack of will to implement it.

    • Comment removed (Score:4, Insightful)

      by account_deleted ( 4530225 ) on Tuesday October 02, 2018 @11:44PM (#57415670)
      Comment removed based on user account deletion
      • by Anonymous Coward

        If you really wanted to tackle CO2, then dump every bit of R&D into Fusion Energy.

        There's this thing called a 'market.' And, almost magically, what this market will do in response to internalising the externalities of climate damage (i.e. "cap and trade / carbon tax") will be to dump R&D into those alternatives to fossil fuels the collective mass of market participants deems to have greatest potential (which may or may not lean towards Fusion Energy).

        The advantage of using a method such as cap

      • Re:So tax it! (Score:5, Interesting)

        by religionofpeas ( 4511805 ) on Wednesday October 03, 2018 @01:47AM (#57415994)

        It's a wealth distribution scheme from polluters to non-polluters.

        If you really wanted to tackle CO2, then dump every bit of R&D into Fusion Energy.

        Yes, let's bet on a single horse that's still far behind.

      • If you really wanted to tackle CO2, then dump every bit of R&D into Fusion Energy.

        Fusion energy has been 40 years away for the past 60 years. It's a very hard problem to solve and, while it might be great eventually (assuming the reactors are not too insanely expensive to build) it is not something we can rely on for solving our carbon emissions because, while I hope not, it may still be 40 years away a century from now.

      • Re:So tax it! (Score:4, Interesting)

        by drinkypoo ( 153816 ) <drink@hyperlogos.org> on Thursday October 04, 2018 @09:17AM (#57424406) Homepage Journal

        All schemes involving cap and trade / carbon tax, etc is nothing more than a wealth redistribution scheme

        Eh, kind of. Cap and trade is that. Cap and tax without trade, on the other hand, is an effective CO2 reduction scheme. The trading is the problem, not the cap, nor the tax. The tax is the most sensible part of the entire system, because it has been proven to be effective under capitalist systems. The trading is what breaks it.

      • All schemes involving cap and trade / carbon tax, etc is nothing more than a wealth redistribution scheme for the globalists to maintain a neo-feudalism form of global dominance, control, and oppression.

        If you really wanted to tackle CO2, then dump every bit of R&D into Fusion Energy. NEVER will happen though as it negates the the real purpose as I've just stated above.

        So how is that any different to what you just said you don't want? Giving lots of tax money to the globalist big energy firms.

  • Joel Salatin: "Nature's P&L statement day of reckoning..." http://bit.ly/1frMP4H [bit.ly]
  • In summary (Score:5, Informative)

    by DanDD ( 1857066 ) on Wednesday October 03, 2018 @01:34AM (#57415958)

    By now we should all be familiar with the Hockey Stick Controversy [wikipedia.org]

    Under the "Continuing research" section of the above link, emphasis mine:

    Marcott et al. 2013 used seafloor and lake bed sediment proxies to reconstruct global temperatures over the past 11,300 years, the last 1,000 years of which confirmed the original MBH99 hockey stick graph.

    In cartoon format:
    https://rationalwiki.org/w/ima... [rationalwiki.org]

    And a free-market reaction to the above, with other considerations [wikipedia.org]: an alternative energy consumption [insideevs.com] and production [wikipedia.org] paradigm seems to be gaining traction, which seems to be related in some way to recent discussions about melting glaciers and sea level rise [slashdot.org].

  • by bluegutang ( 2814641 ) on Wednesday October 03, 2018 @01:34AM (#57415960)

    Yes, warm countries are on average less economically successful. That doesn't imply that warming will make a country less successful.

    Singapore is right in the tropics, sweltering year round, and is extremely successful. So is Hong Kong, which has only a slightly more tolerable climate. So is Israel, which is in a desert region. In the US, ever since the invention of air conditioning it's been the warm areas, not the cool ones, which have the most economic growth. In both the US and China, the cold regions currently form a stagnating "rust belt".

    The reasons why, in other places, economic growth is inversely correlated with temperature, are probably due to history and culture, factors that won't suddenly change if a place warms up.

    • So in other words you can't explain it, but for some reason the correlation which seems to exist can in no case be any hint, that there might be a cause. Correlation is a first step in trying to find a cause, isn't it? Or would you go looking for a cause when it contradicts the correlation. Taking your examples, both Singapore and Hong Kong are basically cities, so not really comparable to most other countries. So those examples are straw men. Israel is a contrary example, but if it is so easy in that clim
    • Singapore is right in the tropics, sweltering year round, and is extremely successful.

      In what area? This same line of thinking turned the USA into an intellectual property and legal powerhouse, which didn't play well for their long term manufacturing prospects.

      Singapore may be successful, they aren't very good in farming, but damn are they successful at something. We can't all be successful at the same thing.

    • So is Israel, which is in a desert region.

      Israel would be a parking lot if not for the protection of the US.

      Alternately, Israel would be Palestine if not for the interference of the US.

      Either way, holding up Israel as an example of anything other than extreme interference by foreign governments is ridiculous.

    • by athmanb ( 100367 )

      The issue isn't the temperature being higher, it's that the temperature is _changing_ to a higher point.

      This way, areas that used to have an ok-ish average temperature for a certain activity will no longer have that. Every other property of that area - infrastructure, soil, population, etc - however will lag behind that change. Adjusting to that change will be what's going to be astronomically expensive.

      Imagine moving all the good 200 year old farming topsoil from California to Oregon. Retraining farmers fr

      • Imagine moving all the good 200 year old farming topsoil from California to Oregon. Retraining farmers from one crop to another while buying them all new tools.

        I grew up on a farm and I see no problem here. Farmers get "retraining" all the time. There's new seeds, new fertilizers, new pesticides, and even just new techniques on old stuff. Farmers buy new equipment all the time. They get bigger stuff, they get newer stuff, sometime they even trade down as they go into a semi-retirement. Equipment wears out and needs to be replaced. A single combine harvester might last 50 years but trade hands 10 times in that period, and be moved across several states. Also

    • In statistics class we were warned on correlation not meaning causation, as well as a related concept of confounding factors. A confounding factor, as I understand it, is something not considered in the data but shows up as something correlated to something as part of the data.

      There must be dozens or hundreds of factors that are major contributors to the economic output of a nation, above that of climate differences by a few degrees. I have my own theories on why warmer climates are less successful but I'

  • by captbollocks ( 779475 ) on Wednesday October 03, 2018 @07:22AM (#57416858)

    This is a poignant quote from WIndfall which is a book about how people are preparing to make money from climate change:

    “It’s a message that says, ‘Yes, forty years from now or a hundred years from now, in 2100, things will be really bad—that’s why you shouldn’t use your energy today.’ If people won’t get that if they have unprotected sex today and it’ll kill you in a few years, why should this other message get across any better? It’s morally bankrupt for the pope to say abstinence only for people to fight HIV—it kills people to say that—and I think that’s a worse sin than fucking."

    • And another that shows that nothing has changed in the last 6 years from the date of publication:

      Perhaps the most magical assumption of the moment is that our growing belief in climate change will lead to a real effort to stop it. But as I discovered in Canada and Greenland and Sudan and Seattle and all over the globe, that is not automatically true. We are noticing that in this new world, there is new oil to find. There is new cropland to farm. There are new machines to be built. From what I have seen in six years of reporting this book, the climate is changing faster than we are.

  • Nuclear Power (Score:4, Insightful)

    by blindseer ( 891256 ) <blindseer@noSPAm.earthlink.net> on Wednesday October 03, 2018 @08:33AM (#57417170)

    If global warming from CO2 production is a problem then we need to consider all solutions to reduce CO2 production. As it is right now, today, nuclear power produced the least CO2 for the most energy. As it is right now nuclear power is by far the safest energy source we have.
    Cite: http://cmo-ripu.blogspot.com/2... [blogspot.com]

    Anyone that both desires to reduce CO2 immediately and ban the future development of nuclear power is placing us all into an impossible situation. It's possible to both reduce CO2 and not use nuclear power but that means (as shown by the source I linked to above) much more mining of ores for the production of steel, concrete, glass, copper, aluminum, and so many more raw materials. This comes with costs, in money, lives, and standard of living.

    Any problems with nuclear power is local, very local, as in limited to the borders of the power plant and the mines. Releases of material beyond these borders are rare, minute, and can be addressed. Issues of CO2 spreading will be global in nature. Any costs of nuclear power must be balanced with the reduced costs of CO2 output it would produce in replacing coal and natural gas.

    Wind and solar involve considerable material costs, far more than nuclear. They also have costs in lives from industrial accidents, far less than any from nuclear power per energy produced. Wind and solar are also unreliable and expensive, which when addressing the unreliability means increasing the costs. There may be places where wind and solar are really cheap, and where pumped hydro storage is also cheap, but these places are rare. Suitable sites for nuclear power, especially fourth generation nuclear, are not rare.

    I do not believe global warming to be a problem but I will concede that point if it means we get cheap, reliable, and safe nuclear power.

    • What you're missing is that moving entirely to these new energy sources, the "game" can be restarted, and maybe this time the economic winners will be someone other than white guys, which means it will be fair. This isn't about protecting the environment or "stopping climate change" - this is about forcing a reset economically and changing who wins and who loses, because it's "not fair" how it currently is.
    • wow you seem to be ignoring the extend and harm of a few nuclear plant disasters in the past few decades. problems not local at all, cross many countries.

      while I'm not anti-nuclear let's not sugar coat the truth

      really solar and energy storage tech has become efficient enough we should go that route, we don't need nuclear any more

      • Re:Nuclear Power (Score:4, Insightful)

        by blindseer ( 891256 ) <blindseer@noSPAm.earthlink.net> on Wednesday October 03, 2018 @10:28AM (#57418024)

        wow you seem to be ignoring the extend and harm of a few nuclear plant disasters in the past few decades. problems not local at all, cross many countries.

        You appear to assume new nuclear reactors would be built the same as those that created these disasters. Estimates of the deaths from Chernobyl has been reduced considerably, to the point that even if we continued to build nuclear power like we did in the 1970s we'd still see nuclear power as safer than anything else by orders of magnitude. Fukushima was built before Chernobyl, and had design problems that were left uncorrected even though they were known about for decades. No one will build a nuclear power plant like either of those again, if only because new designs are cheaper while also being safer.

        I am not ignoring the extent of the harm, only recognizing that this harm was temporary and we keep these exclusion zones only out of an abundance of caution that many measures show are unnecessary. Again, such concerns are not relevant to modern nuclear power because no one is proposing to build nuclear reactors like those at Fukushima, Chernobyl, or Three Mile Island again. Those were all second generation designs, and all had problems of needing power to put in a safe condition. Third generation designs do not need power to be rendered safe. Fourth generation designs are being tested now and will likely be in demonstration prototypes in less than 10 years, and in production in 5 years after that.

        really solar and energy storage tech has become efficient enough we should go that route, we don't need nuclear any more

        You think storage will make solar power competitive? Batteries don't care where the energy comes from. We can charge them up with nuclear power. Those batteries would serve nuclear power well for load following, backup power, maintaining grid stability, and perhaps more.

        If we can agree that CO2 is a problem then we need nuclear power. That's because nuclear power provides power with a lower CO2 footprint than solar. It also means less environmental impact from mining, land covered, and lives lost. Solar power is also quite expensive compared to nuclear, even today and nuclear power keeps getting cheaper with each generation of development. Any complaints of nuclear power being expensive now are matters of politics, not technology. We can fix policy, and at a low cost. Solar power is inherently unreliable, because the sun goes down, and inherently expensive, because of the resources required. Technology might fix the problems with solar power in the future but today nuclear power is more reliable, lower cost, safer, and lower CO2.

        while I'm not anti-nuclear let's not sugar coat the truth

        If you continue to repeat such lies, as well as claim we don't need nuclear power, then you are demonstrably anti-nuclear power. How can you both say we don't need nuclear power and claim to be not anti-nuclear? Do you not see the contradiction here?

        Let's not "sugar coat the truth", nuclear power has a lower CO2 output per energy produced. If we agree that CO2 output is a problem then we need energy from the lowest CO2 energy source, and that's nuclear power.

        • Get off the nuclear obsession! How can there be so many unpaid trolls for nuclear power?? It is not the solution to all our problems! It is a SIDE SHOW that you debate along with all the other issues but in the USA, the moron masses are just now starting to slightly admit global warming exists and have moved on to the next phase in the P.R. playbook in saying "it's not our fault." It doesn't even make much sense in this context but they adapted it from the playbook; liability doesn't matter with physics

          • Get off the nuclear obsession!

            Stop with the global warming alarmism! I'll stop giving the obvious solution when people stop bringing up the problem.

            When I'm presented with a problem then I want to offer solutions. I've investigated this problem and given the data presented to me I see one solution coming up again and again, nuclear power. I also see other solutions, such as wind and solar power, but no one seems to be opposed to those but those solutions are going to be insufficient to solve the problem.

            By the time you build a new plant -- which takes a decade-- grid batteries will easily work to scale at a lower price

            Okay then, problem solved, rig

            • Now I know, some of the rest of us now do too.

              BTW, I am not against practical nuclear power and I'm heavily pro-research.

            • Get off the nuclear obsession!

              Stop with the global warming alarmism! [...] When I'm presented with a problem then I want to offer solutions.

              Global warming is a real problem, and you only want to offer fake solutions.

              Concerns on terrorism, the economy, jobs, and so many other problems that shows up in national polling can be, at least in part, be solved with nuclear power.

              It's funny you bring up the economy, since there are economic reasons why wind and solar are more desirable than nuclear. Even if there weren't other valid reasons to choose them over nuclear power, that would be enough since we live in the real world, and the real world is capitalistic.

              You want me to shut up about nuclear power? Then shut up about global warming.

              Yes, and no, respectively. Nuclear power makes sense on literally no level.

          • by e3m4n ( 947977 )

            if your goal is to stop buring oil, gas, and coal, then why oppose nuclear? Who said the solution had to be just one? We dont have enough wind/solar to provide power for the planet. Wind power cannot work everywhere. Its geographically limited to how much you can get out of wind. Solar works well in locations that get peak sun throughout the day (like arizona) but I am fairly certain that it isnt going to be worth a shit in Anchorage, AK. So why not use nuclear, instead of coal, while we work on other sourc

        • Re:Nuclear Power (Score:4, Interesting)

          by iggymanz ( 596061 ) on Wednesday October 03, 2018 @05:07PM (#57421100)

          okay, let's forget about reactors, the real danger is the spent fuel ponds. those are a more massive danger than the reactors.

          I'm not lying, I speak from reason. I've worked as engineer at nuke plant, have you?

          • okay, let's forget about reactors, the real danger is the spent fuel ponds. those are a more massive danger than the reactors.

            There's no point in engaging the nuclear playboys because they will either give up at this point, or start blathering about reprocessing that fuel even though it's a non-starter because it is expensive and hazardous. To them, no risk is too great to justify the technology that they are in love with.

        • Solar power is inherently unreliable, because the sun goes down, and inherently expensive, because of the resources required.

          There are more systems than solar panels, like concentrated solar power. They are built so when the sun does set the power is still flowing.

    • That link you posted contains horse shit claims, so I don't believe anything they say. For instance, they claim that wind farms take up a lot of space, which is nonsense. The space "used" by wind and solar farms can be shared with other purposes, so they effectively take up only the square footage covered by footings. It also handwaves away the problem of waste disposal.

      Meanwhile, you are handwaving away the problem of water contamination from nuclear tailings as if it didn't exist, but it does. In that reg

  • More news from Captain Obvious. Everyone knows by now that every time we burn a gallon of gas, we damage the environment. Is the damage worth it? Sometimes yes. Can the damage be mitigated? Sometimes yes.

    We don't inherit the earth, we borrow it from our descendants. We have no have right to incur a debt that our descendants must pay. People need to understand that environmental damage is stealing from our descendants.

    Unfortunately, humanity has not evolved yet a healthy form of government that the prote
  • You crazy Americans need to get over your love affair with coal.

    Dam your rivers. Build your nuclear plants. Supplement both with solar and wind arrays. Stop listening to your NIMBY's. Use modern technology for goodness sake.

    • Use modern technology for goodness sake.

      I prefer to use the best-fit technology, not the newest one simply for newness' sake. Wind power was invented centuries ago, and the wind's still blowing so it still works.

      • by Trogre ( 513942 )

        Yes, perhaps I should have said use modern technology where it makes sense to. Would that have made it more clear for you?

        Wind power may have been invented centuries ago, but it has only in the past few decades been used to generate electricity on a large scale. It's getting increasingly difficult for Americans to build anything like a wind farm or hydro dam, because they keep listening to the selfish NIMBY's, thus ensuring the idiotic status quo. The correct course of action is to ignore and marginalise

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