The Cryptocurrency Industry is 'On the Brink of an Implosion', Research Says (bloomberg.com) 187
Echoing sentiments of mainstream economists, Juniper Research is warning that many of the metrics in the cryptocurrency world are pointing to a market implosion. From a report: Industry bellwether Bitcoin had seen its daily transaction volumes fall from an average of around 360,000 a day in late 2017 to just 230,000 in September 2018. Meanwhile, daily transaction values were down from more than $3.7 billion to less than $670 million in the same period, Juniper said in the study, The Future of Cryptocurrency: Bitcoin & Altcoin Trends & Challenges 2018-2023. The market as a whole has contracted quickly as well. In the first quarter, cryptocurrency transactions totaled just over $1.4 trillion, compared with less than $1.7 trillion for 2017 as a whole, Juniper said. However, by the second quarter, transaction values had plummeted by 75 percent, with total market capitalization falling to just under $355 billion. "Based on activity during the first half of Q3, Juniper estimates a further 47 percent quarter-on-quarter drop in transaction values in that quarter," the researcher said in an accompanying white paper.
It's about time ... (Score:5, Funny)
Let me start playing the worlds smallest violin.
Re:It's about time ... (Score:4, Funny)
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Let me start playing the worlds smallest violin.
The real implosion comes 2022-2025, when quantum computers reach the point they can crack Shor's algorithm and hapless Bitcoin shills realize en mass that it's too late to make the cutover to post-quantum protocols. You can tell the whole thing is a scam because the post-quantum cutover needs to happen years in advance, must be initiated individually by each wallet owner, and the protocols which would allow for it are on the order of 30+kB PER transaction signature (as in, not just per block, per every ind
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There is not enough information on the blockchain to crack a bitcoin wallet using Quantum methods until after funds have *already been spent*.
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There is not enough information on the blockchain to crack a bitcoin wallet using Quantum methods until after funds have *already been spent*.
This is just flat out wrong. The security of blockchain transactions comes from the published signatures. No signatures and it's no longer a blockchain. All you have to do is crack the key behind the signature for a given wallet to "own" that wallet and be able to spend it as desired. This is why quantum computers put a hard limit of 2022-2025 (given current growth rates) before Bitcoin is worthless, AND it's why you need to initiate the cutover years before that (it doesn't work as just "upgrading" eve
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The public key isn't published until an address spends the money; the Quantum Computer would have to break it in under 10-20 minutes, and get it into a block first.
That's not gonna be possible for a VERY long time.
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There is more than enough information on the blockchain, things like tracking down IP addresses, to find the owner of the wallet and well, basically crack their bones until they crack their crypto wallet for you.
The collapse of unbacked crypto will not follow normal economic patterns because it is tightly tied to organised crime, money laundering and other criminal activities. In the normal market it will slowly die off and the authorities will become involved and seek to ban it, as it's users start dying
Re: It's about time ... (Score:2)
There are already solutions to that problem, but Bitcoin tends towards protocol stability. There is little reason to doubt this issue will be completely resolved by the time quantum comuters become powerful enough to "break" the protocol.
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Constantly hard-forking as you are suggesting here is a lot harder to do than you make it sound - haven't you been paying attention? You're basically suggesting centralization which undermines the value that bitcoin inherently has.
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Assume the current algorithm was broken and all funds were stolen. The chain itself is the public ledger, rewind to the point of failure, implement to the new stronger (resistant) algorithm, and press the play button.
You have no idea of how economics work, do you? There is no easy-peasy unwinding of transactions in the real world. It won't be a case of , "And here, right here is where everyone lost their money, we'll wind it back to then." There will be legitimate transactions amongst the fraudulent ones, a
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You all talk as if the laws of mathematics are going to be rewritten
No, they talk as though the current level of computer cryptography and its reliance on the computational difficult of factoring arbitrary large primes is going to break when that factoring ceases to be 'difficult'.
it's a bummer to know that I'm surrounded by so many dummies on this site
Ah, that old classic. The age-old riposte: Look in a mirror.
Re:It's about time ... (Score:4, Insightful)
Unfortunately, it's not just people who should know better who get sucked into something like this. You also get people who are just trying to do what they ought to, which is to put some of their surplus income into savings.
Saving isn't rocket science, but most people don't learn how to do it in schools. Nor do schools equipment them with a functioning understanding of economics, or technology. So in the absence of any educational foundation that would enable them to evaluate speculation in cryptocurrency critically, they turn to the information sources at hand, and that's actually worse than just being completely ignorant.
The Internet has infected civilization with what may be a fatal bug: engagement metrics equal profit. The system that delivers the bulk of everyone's awareness of the world is not focused on delivering information that they need, but on provoking measurable reactions. Pushing people's emotional buttons, in other words.
Apply this principle to creating content on something like cryptocurrencies, and you'll quickly see that informing people of the downsides of speculation isn't going to generate profit. Since most people aren't speculating in cryptocurrencies yet, you can't engage them with information about the risks. You can, however, engage those people with this message: you are missing out. Media coverage of cryptocurrencies did a poor or non-existent job of explaining the risks of speculation, and played up stories of people just like you getting rich overnight.
To an informed point of view the idea of putting money you will actually need into cryptocurrency was extremely stupid; but to a mind pickled in clickbait that actually looks economically rational, because of opportunity costs. If, hypothetically speaking, you could be getting rich quick in an investment which was perfectly safe, then dollar cost averaging into a mutual fund with low risk and moderate return would be the stupid thing to do.
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Yep. Posting on a phone is a bad habit.
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Yup, And nothing of value was lost.
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Real currencies have the backing of material goods and the agreement of the entire world that these are real currencies with THIS value.
Cryptocurrencies were never much more than Monopoly money in a really big game of Monopoly.
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I'd say it a bit differently: cryptocurrencies have the potential to be accepted for good and services, just like (some) traditional currencies. If they ever do, they'll be a currency like any other, but they have yet to make much progress in that regard. They remain "almost, but not completely, unlike currency".
Canadian Tire Money remains more well accepted than BTC, but there's nothing inherent in BTC that makes this so.
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10-12 minute (at best) transaction confirmation times ensures that BTC will NEVER be adopted as a form of electronic money that could replace Visa et al.
Of course Visa isn't a currency, and if BTC were a currency you'd have BTC-denominated Visa cards. Banks would likely still do ACH transactions, and only move BTC between banks to the same extent that they move cash between banks today.
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You haven't been keeping up with the latest developments: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/... [wikipedia.org]
Re: It's about time ... (Score:2)
And your credit card takes a full day to clear at least. What's your point? Ten minutes sounds better than 24 hours, unless you have an unjustified hatred/jealousy of crypto-holders.
Go learn how Bitcoin works before making such ignorant statements.
Re: It's about time ... (Score:2)
Real currencies have the backing of material goods
That doesn't even make sense; if it did, there'd be government warehouses full of material goods 'backing the dollar' (in fact nothing physical - except force -has backed the dollar since '72).
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Cryptocurrencies are not going anywhere (Score:1)
Lets compare a real currency, with a cryptocurrency:
1: A government can print all they want for a real currency. A cryptocurrency like Bitcoin only has "x" amount of currency, and only will get less. This makes your stake in the currency more valuable as time progresses, no matter how much is mined.
2: Cryptocurrencies are a secure means of exchange. Once the transaction hits the blockchain and is verified, it is done. No chargebacks, no counterfeit paper money, no bounced checks. You get paid and sta
Comment removed (Score:5, Informative)
Re: Cryptocurrencies are not going anywhere (Score:2)
That's not true. If the Chinese government and the NSA decided they wanted to kill it, they could probably still do it. But it would be expensive af.
Re: Cryptocurrencies are not going anywhere (Score:2)
Plenty of currencies are volatile. But if the volatility of Bitcoin - for example - is part of a long-term upward trend, then it serves as a much better currency than many national currencies.
Bitcoin isn't going to compete with the USD; it competes with all the flaky currencies of the third world, and in that competition, it does pretty well as a currency.
Bubbles and Fads. (Score:5, Funny)
Good thing Tulips and Beanie Babys are safe investments....
It won't go away completely (Score:2)
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A drug seller doesn't value Bitcoins, they can't pay their rent with it and someone down the line needs to pay taxes with boring old fiat currency. Someone has to facilitate the transaction between fiat to bitcoin and back to fiat. That person is your weak point which can be targeted by governments.
If cryptocurrency's entire utility is reduced to money laundering, tax evasion, and similar illegal activities, it is in the governments' interest to eliminate it. Any business operating or transferring financial
Re: Bubbles and Fads. (Score:3)
Yeah, because 17th century futures contracts that bubbled for a season before complete collapse is exactly like a 21st century distributed payment network which has been growing for a decade.
Re: Bubbles and Fads. (Score:2)
The fact that you can't see that also applies to the stock market is pretty telling.
A fool and his money... (Score:5, Insightful)
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Ha, that's what you think! The $20 in Doge I bought is finally going to be at the same level as the big boys! Champagne wishes and caviar dreams, suckers!
Miners need to be seized (Score:3, Insightful)
Re: Miners need to be seized (Score:2, Insightful)
Satoshi was really a consortium of power companies.
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*gasp* It all makes sense now...
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That is now my favourite quote of the year.
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Why don't we crack down on people watching sports on TV ?
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Why don't we crack down on people watching sports on TV ?
That's what mother-in-laws are for.
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In any other industry, wasting resources for no reason but to print electronic tokens would be cracked down on.
We could require that they shoot other people in a "battle royale" of sorts in order to earn those tokens, at which point their activity would be indistinguishable from the way that tens of millions of other people are already wasting time and electricity in a socially acceptable manner.
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You just outlawed computer games.
Well done.
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> Seriously, governments should make it illegal to blatantly waste electricity.
Are you referring to slashdot servers?
This needs to be put in terms we can understand (Score:2)
How many delicious 16 oz. steaks have been wasted on crypto-mining?
I'm paying for (Score:2)
I'm paying for the electricity. Who are you to tell me what I can do with it?
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Seriously, governments should make it illegal to blatantly waste electricity.
Once that train starts, you can't stop it anymore. As a matter of fact, it is not just a train, but a huge railway station.
First, define "waste electricity". For you, it's cryptominers. For me, it's public street lighting. For others, it would be computers in general. Or TVs. Or pool pumps. Or CERN.
Then, it expands to "waste". Did you water your lawn? Oh my, you wasted a lot of perfectly good water. To the gallows with you!
Does your car guzzle more than one gallon per 50 miles? We are providing you with a p
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Then, it expands to "waste". Did you water your lawn? Oh my, you wasted a lot of perfectly good water. To the gallows with you!
Already illegal in many jurisdictions during droughts (and why would you water it if there was no drought?)
Does your car guzzle more than one gallon per 50 miles? We are providing you with a perfectly fitting dungeon chamber where you'll spend large amounts of time thinking about how you wasted resources.
Car taxes (or "fines" if you prefer that word to make it more like a punishment) based on fuel use exist in multiple countries.
Are you heating your house to temperatures more than 10 degrees Celsius above freezing?
Insulation standards are common in countries with cold climates.
Waste is already illegal in many places. The gulags are nowhere to be seen. I think we'll be OK on that train.
Re: Miners need to be seized (Score:2)
You are ignorant of how the electricity consumption of the Bitcoin network works. Feel free to search my old comments for an education, but I've given up trying to explain this to people who are willfully ignorant.
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What about all the doorless fridges and freezers in grocery stores stores?
Always thought about getting in (Score:2)
Now I am with the get your popcorn ready crowd. And how about yesterdays regular market drop! Not even talking about bitcoin
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Now I am with the get your popcorn ready crowd. And how about yesterdays regular market drop! Not even talking about bitcoin ;) Lets see how all this works out.
Just my 2 cents ;)
It's almost like people are starting to realize that exponential growth quarter after quarter isn't realistic or sustainable and that these valuations built on the expectation of constant growth might as well be built on sand.
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You mean like the stock market as a whole, while the overall economy has been stagnant? Growth of the stock market while the economy remains in the toilet should result in a crash at some point.
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It really is too bad (Score:5, Insightful)
Look, I'm not looking to do anything illegal or illicit but the situation of today where Visa could conceivably sell my purchase history to Google who would then target advertising to me or be able to provide the number of Snickers bars I ate this past year to health care or insurance providers doesn't sit particularly well with me either. So being able to purchase some groceries, clothes, etc through electronic means but in an anonymous fashion has a certain draw for me.
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Buy a giftcard or prepaid visa at a physical store with cash.
Re: It really is too bad (Score:2)
And pay a 3% premium on everything? No thanks.
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It's more than conceivable. This and a lot more is happening today.
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The connection to real currencies exist at the mercy of government, they treated crypto with kid gloves for a while but it was never going to last. Once all the billionaires are out and there's no one lobbying for cryptocurrency it will go the way of e-gold.
People who pretend cryptocurrency can somehow route around government are deluding themselves. If the EU and the US don't allow banks to cooperate with conversion or transact with any foreign bank which does, cryptocurrency is dead.
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Visa could conceivably sell my purchase history to Google
Worse, it can be sold to insurance companies and credit score companies who use predictive algorithms based upon crackpot theories to evaluate you as a risk. i
If it makes you feel better they can't do that (Score:2)
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Why not simply use cash? Safe, simple, private, secure.
Re: It really is too bad (Score:2)
How do I submit my dollar bills through a web form?
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I am wondering if the EU GPDR data law could help to force Mastercard to reveal what data they have and how they have shared it.
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It would be nice to have a replacement for cash that has a similar anonymity to cash.
Define anonymous. Anonymous in the sense that no one can see what you spend your money on? Or Anonymous in the sense that no one can identify you?
Cryptocurrencies can't achieve the former.
Any financial transactions that aren't done in person where all parties are blind folded can't achieve the latter.
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Use Tether or Gemini ... it won't last though, they are essentially e-gold v2.0 and they will go the same route.
Re: It really is too bad (Score:2)
The anonymity is available, but costs some extra money and time (and may be illegal if you are using it to hide fraud; not sure on that). But the real selling point isn't anonymity as much as it is control. No one can really stop you from using it, even if - for example - you want to send money back home to Iran.
Re: It really is too bad (Score:2)
Yeah, it's frustrating when the power goes out and the whole Internet gets deleted and we have to re-create it every time...
"Brink" (Score:2)
About time. (Score:3)
Maybe all those obnoxious "Youtube economists" will crawl back to their mom's basements...
Short Sighted (Score:2, Interesting)
So the banking industry and governemnts (Score:2)
would have you believe. When it proved to be beyond big businesses ability to control the only thought that occurred to them was that they be destroyed. They can't have a means of monetary movement or compensation beyond their grasp and control. Crypto currency will be valuable for brief quick transfers and compensation, but probably never stable enough for big business to feel comfortable dumping funds into and wholesale raping, but it could always be a quick and dirty way to transfer/launder money with bi
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That's cute. IBM and Goldman are the big winners (directly) on cryptocurrenicies, with nVidia and other hardware providers making bank as well. It wasn't a big "fuck you" to business, it was an opportunity for them. I mean, the original people were outsiders, but in the past 5 years...?
who actually uses Crypto??? (Score:2)
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There are several ways to do it. But with the volatility of bitcoin at any given moment, I wouldn't advise using any of them.
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Who actually uses stocks to make everyday purchases such as toilet paper, food, gasoline, etc., not just for impulse buying Lamborghinis or South Bay real estate? Same argument.
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Who actually uses stocks to make everyday purchases such as toilet paper, food, gasoline, etc., not just for impulse buying Lamborghinis or South Bay real estate? Same argument.
You appear to be in violent agreement that BTC isn't a currency. I'm not sure that that is waht you intended.
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Yes it's a currency but the "nerds" around here don't see that money is made by treating them as stocks. The buy and hold days are long gone.
Re: who actually uses Crypto??? (Score:2)
Who knows? Maybe lots. You can get a debit card that spends Bitcoin, but works over any standard credit/debit network. It's a solid stratey for Bitcoin belivers to put most of their money into Bitcoin until they need it. So, it's hard to say how much is used for everyday transaction, as these transactions are generally off-chain.
FINALLY!!!! (Score:2)
Nothing to see here. (Score:3)
They talk about the market imploding and correcting itself as though that's a bad thing. This happens with Bitcoin every couple of years. The system and the market always comes out stronger at the end of the cycle. This isn't news.
Re: Nothing to see here. (Score:2)
There's no such thing as a gold market?
Bitcoin is dying (Score:2)
It is official; Netcraft now confirms: *BTC is dying
One more crippling bombshell hit the already beleaguered *BTC community when IDC confirmed that *BTC market share has dropped yet again, now down to less than a fraction of 1 percent of all servers. Coming close on the heels of a recent Netcraft survey which plainly states that *BTC has lost more market share, this news serves to reinforce what we've known all along. *BTC is collapsing in complete disarray, as fittingly exemplified by failing dead last in
Again? (Score:2)
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> Yeah, that's what happens when the base value drops, but does that mean 10k less bitcoin were moved, or the USD value just dropped?
Well considering I can go out and spend my USD to buy products and services at roughly the same price as they were last year (not counting typical fluctuations and the impacts of cheeto-brained tariffs), I'm going to say that the value of the US dollar has not changed significantly over this timeframe.
Your concern is noted, though.
=Smidge=
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I got myself a 6-months-old Sapphire RX580 Nitro+ Special Edition for 180€ on eBay a month ago. Some French dude was selling like 50 of them.
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You laugh, but I bought a pair of nice GeForce 1080 Ti's from a day trader who thought he was going to mine bitcoin and then decided that there was no such thing as free money. I see him sitting at the Starbucks with his Macbook, wheeling and dealing. Meanwhile, I've got a nice gaming card in my rig and a second one sitting here in case the other one blows up.
I wonder how his move back to the stock market is going.
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Your Dogecoins will always be okay. The trade ratio of one Dogecoin to one Dogecoin is rock-solid.
Re: Market overvalued currently, few real transact (Score:2)
There's little in the way of gold-denominated transaction either, outside of selling back and forth. Not sure if your intention was to liken Bitcoin to the best solid investment of the last 2,000 years...
Re: Yeah, OK... (Score:2)
Funny. Everyone I know who bought Bitcoin has made a profit.
Re: It's not a fiat currency (Score:2)
Your knowledge of Bitcoin might only be three years old, but Bitcoin has already cruised by its tenth anniversary.
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We are 3 years into his 10 year window.
You sir are either an idiot or a pedantic shrill, care to weigh in?
Re: It's not a fiat currency (Score:2)
Maybe you should be more pedantic so you'd understand what the word "might" means.
And try to acquire some critical thinking skills while you're at it to realize I was pointing out a decade of longevity to counter the baseless prognostication in the GP.
Re: Bitcoin != Cryptocurrency (Score:2)
LOL! So, you're holding lots of losing BCH and hope it someday recovers?
Re: It was an all time high (Score:2)
+7 Insightful.