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Earth Space Science Technology

Magnetic Field Reversals Unlikely To Be a Problem For Life, Says Astronomer (arxiv.org) 115

Posted by BeauHD from the unwarranted-hysteria dept.
RockDoctor writes: A common trope in "the world is going to end, maybe tomorrow" alarmism is the prospect of the earth undergoing one of its frequent (but aperiodic) magnetic field reversals. Popular conceptions have migrating birds falling out of the sky, satellites and GPS systems no longer working, and much other such silliness. Of course, geologists point out that it has literally all happened before, that there is no significant association of extinction with reversals, and that what evidence there is points to a reversal taking a number of centuries to millennia to achieve. And then the next story comes out and the same old "sky is falling" garbage comes out again.

Just for a change, an astronomer has thrown in his few cents worth. In a letter to The Astrophysical Journal (Warning: source paywalled; alternative source), Manasvi Lingam of Harvard University looks at the implications of a magnetic reversal, or of the "switching on" of the Earth's "dynamo" on the flux of radiation experienced by an organism living near the surface. Lingam deduces that during a reversal (or before the dynamo started) "neither the biological radiation dose rates [...] would vary by more than a factor of 2." Behind the "..." is a prospect which will appeal to those looking for ways to die, as "the atmospheric escape rate" is also somewhat affected by the strength of the magnetic field. As a theoretical astronomer, Lingam agrees with the geological record (yay!) that field reversals are unlikely to have major effects on life, or on the atmosphere, or really, on anything other than astronomers' and geophysicists' gauges and dials. None of this will even slightly slow down the overblown hysteria that accompanies the next twitch of the magnetic field.
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Magnetic Field Reversals Unlikely To Be a Problem For Life, Says Astronomer More

Magnetic Field Reversals Unlikely To Be a Problem For Life, Says Astronomer

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  • Here we go again (Score:1)

    by Anonymous Coward

    Raining on a good panic parade with your "facts" and your "science".

    Won't anybody think of the poor panickers bereft of a good panic?

    • Comment removed (Score:5, Funny)

      by account_deleted ( 4530225 ) on Thursday April 11, 2019 @05:57AM (#58420048)
      Comment removed based on user account deletion

    • Awwwww... At least the axis flip scare has plenty of built in hilarity to entertain those who like t harmlessly watch these dipshits in action. :)

  • Makes no sense (Score:5, Funny)

    by religionofpeas ( 4511805 ) on Thursday April 11, 2019 @05:34AM (#58419966)

    I was taught by slashdot commenters that scientists always like to create alarm and panic in order to raise taxes. What happened here ?

    • Re: (Score:1)

      by Anonymous Coward

      Due to Y2K the tax raising alarm button didn't fire and cause an instant peak oil. This is turn prevented all bridges and dams from collapsing simultaneously and the Yellowstone from eruption. The neutron star fragment is also late from our solar system so there could be still time do some wealth redistribution. But that's would be like going all Soviet Union at once.

    • OK - here's your panic (Score:1)

      by Anonymous Coward

      Panic here:
      https://phys.org/news/2018-12-earth-magnetic-poles-flip.html

      And EU funded agency to study the "problem":
      https://cordis.europa.eu/project/rcn/213916/factsheet/en

      There is always money to be made by scaring the public with stuff they don't understand.

    • Slashdot commentators lied to you. Simples. (Incidentally, this is one scientist, doing a desktop study. You can buy an awful lot of those for the price of a war plane falling out of the sky.)
    • When you say 'slashdot commenters' that's just code for 'religious nutjobs', right? They're the ones who are trying to convince everyone that all science is of The Devil and therefore should be rejected. Except science that benefits them, of course, that's perfectly okay. Science they don't understand or don't agree with is Satanic and intended to tempt the Faithful to stray from the True Path; things like human-caused climate change, or that the Earth is older than 6000 years.

    • Re: (Score:3)

      by shess ( 31691 )

      I was taught by slashdot commenters that scientists always like to create alarm and panic in order to raise taxes. What happened here ?

      It's a trick. The reversal actually will have severe consequences to our civilization, requiring a single world government response.

    • I think you mean "raise more budget money"; which may or may not affect taxes.

      I replied here as such so as to cause another type of alarm.
      Yet, you have to figure that alarm out for yourself! ;-)

  • How long before the first... (Score:3)

    by sheramil ( 921315 ) on Thursday April 11, 2019 @05:42AM (#58419998)

    ... hiker who gets lost and starves to death because of a compass that isn't pointing north any more?

    ... where will it be pointing? will there be a mass recall of compasses?

    • Comment removed based on user account deletion

      • Re:How long before the first... (Score:5, Funny)

        by religionofpeas ( 4511805 ) on Thursday April 11, 2019 @05:51AM (#58420028)

        How did humans find their way around before compasses were invented?

        Using GPS obviously.

      • How did humans find their way around before compasses were invented?

         
        Apple Maps. Be afraid.

      • Re:How long before the first... (Score:4, Interesting)

        by oobayly ( 1056050 ) on Thursday April 11, 2019 @06:55AM (#58420274)

        I have had to use a compass, in the Lake District, in the snow, on my own. Not the cleverest thing to do. There were five paths going away from a cairn so I too a compass bearing from the map. Unfortunately 72 deg leaves a lot of ambiguity and I ended up walking into the wrong corrie (cirque) as tarns can look very similar in the snow. It was only when I got half way down that I realised that "those peaks shouldn't be visible from here".

        • There were five paths going away from a cairn

          Sounds sufficiently low-rez enough to be interesting; what's the telnet address??

        • There were five paths going away from a cairn...

          They are all alike. A wight eyes you and sings in an ancient language, possibly about lunch.

        • I have had to use a compass, in the Lake District, in the snow, on my own.

          There are grues in the wild up there. They look white and fluffy until they get close enough to leap and "game over".

          There were five paths going away from a cairn so I too a compass bearing from the map.

          Which is, of course, why you dig the compass out, select your exit path from your known point, then continue to monitor if what you're seeing underfoot is what the map says you should see.

          We've all learned, one way or another. Well, a

      • ...and never had to rely on a compass.

        I'm going to go out on a limb and guess that you didn't have any topos to use a compass with.

        Hell, I have to regularly refer to the compass built into my Chevy just to prevent Waze from sending me in the wrong direction...

        • Comment removed based on user account deletion

        • Hell, I have to regularly refer to the compass built into my Chevy just to prevent Waze from sending me in the wrong direction...

          Adjusting the counter-magnets in the binnacle to correct for the car's (is a Chevy a car?) own magnetic field must take a time every time you've had any welding done on it.

    • Re: (Score:2)

      by fazig ( 2909523 )
      I'd call it natural selection for the few that get lost because they can't verify directions by other means, like the apparent position of the sun or stars.

      • Actually, many parts of the world were settled by people who got lost. You don't think anyone would move to Minnesota on purpose, do you?

        • Re: (Score:2)

          by fazig ( 2909523 )
          Never been there, but I've heard terrible things about Wisconsin.

          Well, I suppose those settlers had good enough survival skills to not starve to death when they got lost.

        • Actually, many parts of the world were settled by people who got lost.

          They may have been discovered by people who got lost. But the rest of the world got to hear about it the new discovery from the discoverer who found the new place, then fixed their navigation well enough to get back home. The ones who didn't get back home ... nobody knew about their discovery.

          For example, the thread of reporting that got news of the Viking's discovery of the North American continent was so slender that for centuries, nob

    • Re: How long before the first... (Score:1)

      by Anonymous Coward

      Unless you are completely in wildernesses a compas is rarely needed while hiking. I have a good deal of experience here. Remember the sun is always up there at least during the day if you know at least if itâ(TM)s before or afternoon you have a rough east west pointer. So as long as you are sticking to some sort of trials / roads etc you can determine which way to go when you arrive at a fork or crossing. In other situations a compas isnâ(TM)t very helpful anyway unless you can otherwise very p

      • Re: (Score:3)

        by sconeu ( 64226 )

        Don't even need to know if it's before or after noon.

        Put a stick in the ground, mark the tip of its shadow. Wait ten minutes. Mark the new tip of it's shadow. The direction from the original mark to the new mark is east.

        Boy Scout Handbook strikes gain!

    • He could use a watch instead: https://www.wikihow.com/Use-an... [wikihow.com]

    • will there be a mass recall of compasses?

      No. The compasses will still be working as well as ever. They'll be indicating the direction of the local magnetic field (with a side serving of indicating the field strength by the speed of settling in a direction). The N and S indicated on the needle (by colour, writing or whatever) refer to the magnetic field.

      If a user erroneously believes that the needle points towards the Earth's rotation axis, well that is the user's problem. At worst, manuals will be more car

  • Comment removed (Score:3)

    by account_deleted ( 4530225 ) on Thursday April 11, 2019 @06:36AM (#58420220)
    Comment removed based on user account deletion

  • Manasvi Lingam? (Score:1)

    by Anonymous Coward
    He's a real dick [wikipedia.org]...

  • Why even bother... (Score:3)

    by geekmux ( 1040042 ) on Thursday April 11, 2019 @07:38AM (#58420414)

    "None of this will even slightly slow down the overblown hysteria that accompanies the next twitch of the magnetic field."

    "And then the next story comes out and the same old "sky is falling" garbage comes out again."

    When every scientific effort documented in TFS is punctuated by this bullshit, it really makes me wonder why scientists even expended the effort to do a study in the first place.

    In the face of mass ignorance and stupidity, trying to educate people seems so damn futile.

    • You'll notice that the paper was published in that news-stand favourite, Astrophysical Journal Letters (Bums'n'Tits Daily always cedes front-row space to ApJL). For even wider input, he posted it to one of the most popular sites on the internet, Arxiv.

      It's almost as if the author doesn't care if a single scientist reads it, and instead it's only read by the general public. My post is an effort to reverse that trend.

      • Re: (Score:2)

        by PPH ( 736903 )

        Yeah. But if you want our technology to be protected against the possible ill effects of a field reversal, Bums'n'Tits Daily will get the attention of our industry leaders.

        • To be honest, I don't care about your technology, as long as you don't veer across my path. My technology and navigation methods aren't going to be upset by this, even if it happens at an unprecedentedly high rate. I've seen people get seriously fucked-up by navigation errors, and certainly don't intend to fall for that sort of mistake.

          Chuckles to self : about $18million for one particular fuck-up. I lost days of sleep over that one, and when the navigation SNAFU came out - a year later and a thousand kilo

  • The *woosh* is missing the point (Score:4, Interesting)

    by Etcetera ( 14711 ) on Thursday April 11, 2019 @09:24AM (#58421020) Homepage

    I'm reminded of similar statements by scientists that an EMP or another Carrington event will have minimal effects on humans or animal life. In both cases (and in this), the problem isn't the direct effects, it's the secondary ones. An EMP will mostly pass through biological tissue just fine, and might not even permanently disable some older cars -- but if the US is out of power for 14 months because no one can get the transformers rebuilt, that particular aspect doesn't really matter, now does it?

    For a pole flip, I'm not really concerned about the biosphere (except maybe birds), for precisely the reasons indicated. Rather, how does a magnetic flip affect GPS? Compasses? Does it induce current in the process of the flip? That sort of thing.

    • Has the point made repeatedly by geologists (including this one, on Slashdot) penetrated into your mind that the evidence about the duration of pole-flip events puts them at taking centuries to millennia to happen. We could today be in the same pole-flip as our grand parents lived through and your great-great grand-descendants will continue living through.

      Incidentally, for the birds, I wouldn't worry about it. Their ancestors lived through previous pole-flips without becoming extinct. [sarcasm] Not even fo

    • GPS would be completely unaffected. GPS relies on timed radio signals from various satellites in orbit and determines the location of the GPS unit based on the time differences.

      Compasses would flip, but all compasses with needles already point both directions and it should be a simple matter to remember that the red end now points south, so take readings using the other end.

      As the pole flips it could produce an incredibly weak push of DC current for a single cycle that would have a single period that would

    • Re: (Score:2)

      by PPH ( 736903 )

      but if the US is out of power for 14 months because no one can get the transformers rebuilt

      Not so much a transformer damage problem. We know how to protect transmission systems and related equipment. Breakers will trip open* to prevent geomagnetically induced currents (GIS [wikipedia.org]) from causing damage. The big problem is that this won't be one single solar flare event type incident. I'm not sure anyone knows how long geomagnetic fields take to reverse and rebuild. It could be years. And during this time, we will experience repeated blackouts. Or perhaps one big one.

      *This is predicated upon implementatio

      • I'm not sure anyone knows how long geomagnetic fields take to reverse and rebuild. It could be years. And during this time, we will experience repeated blackouts. Or perhaps one big one.

        As I've said before, the best, limited, information, we have is that they take centuries, maybe millennia. So, we could have spent the whole of the history of electrical manufacture in a period of increasing Geomag Induced Currents, continue through the same for a few more centuries, and it all be a matter of history by 300

    • The US won't be out of power, just the places not using renewables.

      The major concern with magnetic flipping is directional indicators, affecting a lot of other telemetry systems, and planes crashing. The days when you could go full manual are sadly in the past, so it's more sudden lack of systems that do the right thing.

      • The US won't be out of power, just the places not using renewables.

        That depends on the length - and orientation - of the distribution lines. Regardless of the origin of the go-go juice.

    • I'm amused you think transformer order lead-time now would be the same as post-EMP order lead time and assembly. I can assure you the matter would get more than normal priority, they'd be shitting out transformers in a New York minute, relatively speaking.

    • No, the compass on your smart-phone, if you carry out it's calibration correctly, will continue to indicate the direction of your local magnetic field's north. Whether that magnetic field actually points anywhere near the rotation axis of the Earth is an entirely separate question for which you need to study your local geology, or consult a cartographer. The relationship between the two things (magnetic field, rotation axis) is not precise, even without the complications of geology.

      If your phone's "compass

  • GPS was fine last time (Score:1)

    by Anonymous Coward

    satellites and GPS systems no longer working, and much other such silliness. Of course, geologists point out that it has literally all happened before,

    We all know that GPS was not affected last time.

    • It wasn't that easy, all the geostationary satellites in existence had to be recalibrated, and all the satellites at 20k kilometers had to reverse direction. In the end, they all got sorted out.

  • MAPS (Score:2)

    by Zorro ( 15797 )

    The roads are not going to twist just because the poles flip.

    You just need to learn to read a map or the land.

    If you are in Colorado you can pretty much tell where you are by what side of the Mountain you are and which one.

    • and who uses a magnetic compass these days? no one, that's who

      • Anyone who doesn't want to carry around a couple of kilos of solar charger in the rucksack along with the tent, sleeping bag, rock hammer, stove, fuel, food, maps (at various resolutions), sample bags ... oh, and the compass and clinometer are built into the same unit and the clinometer is an essential too.

  • "Magnetic Field Reversals Unlikely To Be a Problem For Life ..."

    Key word there is "life", other than messing with any species that uses the magnetic field to guild its migration path for the most part a collapse and flip of the Earth's magnetic field will have little or no long term impact on "life"

    But Technology on the other hand is going to be mostly screwed over by a flip. Something most people don't get is a pole flip won't be a clean instant flip where suddenly your compass is 180 degrees off from where it pointed to before lunch. The poles will move around, th

    • This unstable period could last for years if not decades.

      Or centuries or millennia. Which is the direction the geological record points to.

      Many of those satellites are not made to withstand direct exposure to the Sun's radiation for very long. So most of the electronics in orbit will be fried.

      All satellites have a limited lifetime, whether it be fuel exhaustion for station keeping, or bit rot from cosmic rays. What you're talking about is needing to increase the replacement rate. Not "start replacing satel

  • The author has released a revision of the paper at the same location as described above. The original version is now here [arxiv.org]. There are no major changes to the conclusions.

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