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EU Earth Transportation

Electric Vehicles In Germany Emit More CO2 Than Diesel Ones, Study Shows (brusselstimes.com) 432

Driving an electric vehicle in Germany produces more CO2 emissions than driving a diesel vehicle, a new study claims. schwit1 quotes the Brussels Times: When CO2 emissions linked to the production of batteries and the German energy mix -- in which coal still plays an important role -- are taken into consideration, electric vehicles emit 11% to 28% more than their diesel counterparts, according to the study, presented at the Ifo Institute in Munich.

Mining and processing the lithium, cobalt and manganese used for batteries consume a great deal of energy... The CO2 given off to produce the electricity that powers such vehicles also needs to be factored in, they say. When all these factors are considered, each Tesla emits 156 to 180 grams of CO2 per kilometre, which is more than a comparable diesel vehicle produced by the German company Mercedes, for example.

Instead the study suggests "Natural gas combustion engines are the ideal technology for transitioning to vehicles powered by hydrogen or 'green' methane in the long term."
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Electric Vehicles In Germany Emit More CO2 Than Diesel Ones, Study Shows

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  • Of course... (Score:5, Insightful)

    by Anonymous Coward on Sunday April 28, 2019 @10:42AM (#58505074)

    As time goes on and the world gets away from dirty power sources like coal, back to renewable common sense, all EV fleets get cleaner to operate as a direct result.

    • Re:Of course... (Score:4, Insightful)

      by Anonymous Coward on Sunday April 28, 2019 @11:04AM (#58505178)

      The article's way too brief. It doesn't specify what kind of energy sources are used for making the batteries.

      Also, it'd be easier to control emissions at a few plants than a bunch of cars running around and CO2 isn't the only thing being spewed out by car exhaust. There's also the logistics of hauling liquid fuel to the gas stations. What are the chances liquid hydrocarbons are as clean as they claim it to be?

      • Re:Of course... (Score:5, Insightful)

        by jrumney ( 197329 ) on Sunday April 28, 2019 @05:51PM (#58506812)
        It's pretty obvious the "study" is funded by the oil industry. Taking into account the CO2 produced when manufacturing batteries, but ignoring the CO2 produced when manufacturing the ICE, catalytic converter etc? Pretty obvious shill report, really.
        • Re:Of course... (Score:5, Insightful)

          by sd4f ( 1891894 ) on Monday April 29, 2019 @02:49AM (#58508238)

          I have my doubts that it's actually the oil industry. My suspicion is that it's the German car industry, why? It's stated in the article, where the assumption that EV's are zero emissions is creating a rather large competitive advantage. They want to level the field when comparing with their own cars. I believe it's because EV's will be a major disruption to a lot of their automotive manufacture, not necessarily the car assemblers (that's the brands) but rather the parts suppliers and manufacturers.

          Replacing an internal combustion engine with an electric motor, you just eliminate a whole bunch of systems and parts with out requiring them to be replaced with much at all, this will effect a lot of companies and manufacturers who design and manufacture said parts and systems, probably eliminating the need for the majority of those jobs.

        • They didn't ignore it as much as used conservative numbers for manufacturing fuel, conservative (in the other direction) numbers for manufacturing lithium batteries, and then rightfully pointed out something which has been known for a long time: Production of the vehicle itself is a pittance of CO2 emissions.

      • by im_thatoneguy ( 819432 ) on Sunday April 28, 2019 @01:39PM (#58505952)

        It's an independent study. But that just goes to show that partisans will do propaganda-hack-work for free to justify their beliefs.

        Copy pasta of one of dozens of takedowns of this "sudty". TL;DR: All of the scientific studies that actually evaluate this like the "Cradle to Grave" EV study have found EVs to be at worst about average to an efficient small diesel in the worst energy grids. But on average far cleaner and getting better .

        Yet another set of cranky retired professors makes waves 'proving' diesel is better than electric vehicles for the climate. Unfortunately many journalists copy their opinion.

        Let's use an Easter sunday afternoon to debunk this myth, again. Probably not for the last time :-(

        Summary of the major errors:

        Honorary mention: energy needed for diesel motor, exhaust system etc. is ignored.

        Some have presented this as an academic study. It is not. It is the opinion of three people, two of which happen to be retired professors (one a well known economist) and none of whom have any background in the (electric) car industry or batteries.

        Error 1: "car battery lasts 150 000 km".
        That's just 300 cycles.

        In reality: even Tesla's from the olden days can drive 600 000 km before the battery reaches 80% capacity. https://steinbuch.wordpress.co... [wordpress.com] And laboratories peg it closer to 3000 cycles and on the way to 10 000.

        Error 2: "650 grams of CO2 per kWh"

        In reality it is certainly possible to conjure this up for parts of current Germany. But the EU average is much lower (450 grams) and more importantly: an EV drives 20 years and electricity gets cleaner over this period.

        Error 3: "Mercedes C220d emits 141 grams per kWh"

        They take the lowest possible estimate for refining diesel. More importantly: they use the widely discredited NEDC values that are on average 40% too low because carmakers cheat.

        Error 4: "battery production emits 177 kg CO2/kWh"

        The best studies that I used in my last debunk put it at 100 kg CO2/kWh but that's an old number too. My industry source (who wants to remain anonymous but has been very trustworthy pegs it at 65 kg CO2/kWh and falling.

        To summarize: EVs only emit more CO2 if you make unrealistically negative assumptions for battery production, battery life and electricity mix while making unrealistically positive assumption about diesel consumption.

        Correct ANY of these and the tables are turned. Bigly.

        https://twitter.com/AukeHoekst... [twitter.com]

        • by Rob Y. ( 110975 ) on Sunday April 28, 2019 @02:04PM (#58506098)

          Yep. This is yet another of those "my magic bullet is better than your magic bullet, so we may as well do nothing until my magic bullet is ready" pieces.

          Remember how G. W. Bush used to talk about hydrogen fuel cells as the next big thing. Except that they weren't. And in the meantime, gasoline continued and continues to rule - just as the cynic in me assumes was the plan all along.

          Global Warming: just wait for carbon capture (or artificial clouds, or some magically safe nuclear design with no waste problem...) to magically fix everything - and in the meantime, COAL!!!

          Manufacturing jobs: the robots are coming!! The robots are coming!!! And in the meantime, lets let all those Chinese humans do the robots' work. Oh, but you want a job? Well, you're not going to have one in 20 years, so why ask for one now...

        • by barc0001 ( 173002 ) on Sunday April 28, 2019 @02:50PM (#58506272)

          Well written. Though the conclusions fall apart of the study with even this one sentence:

          "Given a lifetime of 10 years and an annual travel distance of 15,000 kilometres, this translates into 73 to 98 grams of CO2 per kilometre, scientists Christoph Buchal, Hans-Dieter Karl and Hans-Werner Sinn noted in their study."

          15K annual travel? 10 year life? Horseshit. Most people who commute that I know pack at least 20K per year on their vehicle, if not more. So that alone invalidates the conclusion as a more realistic number drops the per km CO2 debt by 33%. And a 10 year life? Maybe for one owner, but that electric car will go on to another owner and get another 10-15 years of life out of it if the used market for ICE cars is any indication, let alone used diesels that go on for decades in some cases. And as others have pointed out, Teslas and other electric cars seem to be bucking the trend - owners are keeping them around longer than they normally would keep a gas sedan.

        • Error 4: "battery production emits 177 kg CO2/kWh"

          This study [sciencedirect.com] puts Li-ion battery cost CO2 intensity at 0.26 kWh and 74 g of CO2 per 1 kWh of lifetime storage (amortized over all charging cycles). Since the average cycles come out as something like 1300, it comes out as around 100 kg per nominal 1 kWh of capacity. That's the *today's average*, though. It's going to get much better.

        • by thegarbz ( 1787294 ) on Monday April 29, 2019 @05:07AM (#58508578)

          More importantly: they use the widely discredited NEDC values that are on average 40% too low because carmakers cheat.

          It gets better. Not only do they take the (manufacturer self reported) NEDC values. They also take it from potentially the cleanest running diesel car money can buy. Hell the C220d could almost be classed as a "hybrid" since it has a massively oversized alternator that uses regenerative breaking and boosting to help improve vehicle efficiency.

    • Re:Of course... (Score:4, Informative)

      by phantomfive ( 622387 ) on Sunday April 28, 2019 @11:25AM (#58505318) Journal
      Germany recently moved the opposite direction, away from nuclear and to coal. Their end-goal (of course) is to transition to solar and wind, but that's not achievable until power storage solutions improve.
      • by Anonymous Coward

        No, Germany has not moved from nuclear to coal. [cleanenergywire.org] Germany is moving from nuclear to renewables and from coal to renewables, absolutely and relatively. And before the holier-than-thou American nuclear shills point out that Germany has hardly reduced its burning of lignite: Germany produces less than half its electricity from fossil fuels. The USA produces almost two thirds from fossil fuels (63.5% [eia.gov]). Nuclear and renewables (CO2 neutral) account for 46.7% in Germany, only 36.4% in the USA. But AC, isn't electric

      • Re:Of course... (Score:5, Informative)

        by thegarbz ( 1787294 ) on Sunday April 28, 2019 @01:16PM (#58505842)

        Actually they didn't. Neither Germany's coal / lignite total use consumption, nor their percentage of generation capacity, nor even their actual generation has gone up. In 2010 when the nuclear program started nuclear power went from 20.4GW to 12.1GW in a single year.

        In that year coal went from 28.4GW to 25.7GW, and lignite went from 21.3GW to 19.9GW. Since 2010 those shares have remained incredibly even with current figures for hard coal at 24.2GW and lignite up slightly at 21GW and nuclear down slightly at 9.5GW with the last few remaining plants to go offline soon.

        Now what *has* changed is a tripling in the installed capacity for wind and solar in 2010 and a 50% increase in nat-gas usage. Ultimately though the loss of nuclear which was only a pittance of Germany's generation in the first place hasn't had a visible effect in the consumption of coal or lignite.

        As for "moving to coal" nothing could be further from the truth, a grand total of 2 brown coal and 0 lignite power stations have been opened since Fukushima. Both of those power stations were opened to facilitate the decommissioning of neighboring power stations, and while Germany is planning to close its remaining 9GW of nuclear reactors by end 2022, they also plan to close 13GW of the coal capacity in that time too.

        Now I agree shutting nuclear is a stupid option, but they hardly "moved the opposite direction".

      • by Ichijo ( 607641 )

        How much do power storage solutions need to improve in order to transition to solar and wind? In other words, (1) how much of total electrical demand is perfectly inelastic, and (2) what is the optimum price point for it? The answer to this will reveal how much storage needs to cost before we can transition to solar and wind.

      • Germany recently moved the opposite direction, away from nuclear and to coal.

        Germany recently moved in a different direction still, away from nuclear and to renewables. [cleanenergywire.org] Coal is slightly decreasing in their mix, NOT increasing.

        Their end-goal (of course) is to transition to solar and wind, but that's not achievable until power storage solutions improve.

        Surely you've noticed that BEVs *are* a power storage solution, too. So there's not really a problem with powering them almost purely from renewables, assuming you have enough plugs (and most European countries *do* have enough plugs - in fact, some of them have silly numbers of car plugs already [insideevs.com])

    • by jwhyche ( 6192 )

      Isn't Germany abandoning nuclear as a clean energy source?

  • by Anonymous Coward on Sunday April 28, 2019 @10:44AM (#58505082)

    It's not like there's anything wrong with Germany's nuclear power plants. They're just mothballed because the Germans freaked out over Fukushima.

    • It's not like there's anything wrong with Germany's nuclear power plants. They're just mothballed because the Germans freaked out over Fukushima.

      They didn't want to get Mothra [wikipedia.org] -balled if something went wrong ...

  • That all depends... (Score:5, Interesting)

    by JoeyRox ( 2711699 ) on Sunday April 28, 2019 @10:44AM (#58505086)
    On whether the measured diesel emissions are being falsified [caranddriver.com].
  • by bobstreo ( 1320787 ) on Sunday April 28, 2019 @10:47AM (#58505096)

    Didn't read the article, but did they factor in carbon costs for diesel exploring, extracting, transporting, refining, delivery and VW lying about their emissions?

    • BMW (Score:2, Interesting)

      by Anonymous Coward

      Ifo Institute is one of these 'economic' research groups in Munich.... think BMW lobbyist.

      My guess is BMW is behind in their electric car research and needs to catch up.

      • by tsa ( 15680 )

        Nope. Read the article. You can find it if you look for it.

        • by tsa ( 15680 )

          Well, at least they say they don't have connections to commercial parties. But I don't know the people who wrote it and how big the influence of the car industry is on them.

    • and VW lying about their emissions

      The VW diesel emissions scandal was for excessive NOx emissions. The cheating diesels actually emitted less CO2 than the fixed ones, since the fix reduced MPG slightly (more fuel burned to travel same distance = more CO2 emitted). That was the tradeoff that VW was leveraging - tuning their TDI engines for better performance and mileage (less CO2 emitted), at the cost of more NOx emissions.

      And technically, diesel vehicles emit less CO2 per mile than gasoline vehicles [sierraclub.org].

    • Yes, but they chose a conservative 21% number which is delusional at best. What they are doing in their calculation is throwing away perfectly good cars and assuming they don't drive them very much to inflate the battery emissions.

      Also VW lying about emissions is a net positive for CO2. VW lied about NOx emissions, and the problem there is when you lie about NOx you can run the engine more efficiently in terms of consumption and therefore CO2 production.

  • by Anonymous Coward on Sunday April 28, 2019 @10:47AM (#58505098)

    "it would have been preferable to opt for methane engines, “whose emissions are one-third less than those of diesel motors.” - In a laboratory that's true. What would the infrastructure for methane energy transportation look like in terms of emissions, given that methane releases are some 50x ++ times more potent as greenhouse gasses than C02 in the atmosphere? If we switched to methane how much more prevalent would these leaks be?

    There's a failure to account on all sides of this study.

  • Careful (Score:5, Informative)

    by mseeger ( 40923 ) on Sunday April 28, 2019 @10:48AM (#58505100)

    That study has been carefully doctored by our car industry (which is very, very powerful here) lobbyists. They had to make some unrealistic assumptions to get to that result.

    • by rsilvergun ( 571051 ) on Sunday April 28, 2019 @11:14AM (#58505240)
      I'd much rather have the emissions coming from a power plant outside city limits and at a single source where we more easily could put effort into reducing them. It's not just about "Shave the Whales" I want cleaner air in my city so me and my kids don't get Asthma.
    • It seems to ignore the carbon footprint of manufacturing of combustion engines, and also the recycling of electric vehicle components.

      • Nope, they included the recycling components. ... On the same car in the same 10 year period. That's right, they calculated the cost of making the battery, owning it for 150000km and then the cost of recycling that battery and amortized those costs over the single 10 year period.

        On the up side from year 10-20 when you own your car the battery becomes 100% CO2 free.

  • by Anonymous Coward on Sunday April 28, 2019 @10:51AM (#58505106)

    Does this also take into account the extraction and refining of crude oil and then transporting that to service stations? Just to give a more balanced picture.

    • Re: (Score:2, Insightful)

      by whoever57 ( 658626 )

      Does this also take into account the extraction and refining of crude oil and then transporting that to service stations? Just to give a more balanced picture.

      I doubt it: the study appears to believe that the engine and emissions systems appear fully formed in new vehicles with no expenditure in energy.

      Similar bullshit claims were made and quickly debunked about solar panels and wind turbines

    • Yes but they used a conservative 21% figure. They cheated in many other ways though.

  • Green methane? (Score:4, Interesting)

    by walterbyrd ( 182728 ) on Sunday April 28, 2019 @10:55AM (#58505122)

    Is there such a thing?

    • Yes it is given off by decomposing cattle droppings for example. Burn that methane and it becomes CO2, which is consumed by grass, which is eaten by cattle, which becomes poop, which gives off methane, which can be harvested... and on it goes in circles. A farmer with methane driven tractors (if there is such a thing) and a methane driven car can run his farm almost completely without de-sequestering carbon if he has enough cattle poop. Mined methane on the other hand represents carbon de-sequestering so yo
  • by walterbyrd ( 182728 ) on Sunday April 28, 2019 @11:06AM (#58505192)

    On balance, globally, diesel is cleaner than standard non-leaded.

    But it's worse locally. If you live in a city with a lot of diesel vehicles on the roads, the air you breath would be awful. Once those emissions dissipate, there is less pollution, but until they do the air locally is seriously toxic.

    Diesel is great for ships and trains, not so much for cars on city streets.

    Electric cars, and hybrid cars, may pollute just as much, or more, than standard non-leaded burners, or diesel, but the air around the city streets will be cleaner.

    This is especially true in cities like Los Angeles. Because of the geography of such cities, smog is held in.

    I hope I am making sense.

    • by Mashiki ( 184564 )

      Older diesels had two problems: Particulate and sulpher, the runner up being NOx. Modern diesels have particulate filters, and use piss to reduce sulpher and NOx emissions. Though a bunch of companies just finished getting slapped for cheating on those emission reports. Gasoline engines compared to a transport trucks, have higher particulate counts in many cases.

      Ships and whatnot, mostly still burn bunker oil, and are a favorite way to get ride of older PCB laden oils. Which is such a small step away fr

    • In terms of NOx, SOx and particulates you're very correct. However they are talking here exclusively in CO2 emissions and global warming doesn't give a damn where you're generating the emissions.

      To be clear:
      Electric cars good.
      Emissions outside city center good.
      Diesel cars bad.
      Study that makes some wild assumptions and does some dodgy accounting is also bad.

  • by thomas089 ( 759773 ) on Sunday April 28, 2019 @11:07AM (#58505202)
    This study made many questionable assumptions like the life span of the battery (only 150.000 km, but Tesla has actually warranty up to 192.000 km), they used for their assumptions always worst case scenario for electric cars and best case scenario for diesel cars. Also they compared apple with oranges, compared a Tesla 3 (351 hp) with Mercedes 220d (only 194 hp). It was already highly criticized in the German media. See for example Der Spiegel about this study (in German): https://www.spiegel.de/auto/ak... [spiegel.de]
    • I notice that people always cherry-pick the best of any EV to justify EVs. Yes Tesla may have a 192,000 km warranty and have superchargers available, but very few people can afford a Tesla. When we're talking about cost, the Leaf will always be the EV poster child but there are many weaknesses with the Leaf.
    • You mean 75000km right? They did after all include the CO2 in manufacturing the battery, AND the CO2 in recycling that battery, and amortized them both in the same 10 year period.

  • I'm trusting these so-called 'studies' less and less because of all the spin-doctoring going on with them.
    Seriously, it's reaching the point where I just want to punch someone in the mouth when they start to say "..but such-and-such STUDY says.."
  • by necro81 ( 917438 ) on Sunday April 28, 2019 @12:16PM (#58505536) Journal
    The biggest flaw I find in this study is a shortsightedness about the future. The grid will be getting greener over time; diesel emissions per km aren't likely to improve much beyond what they are now. And when comparing two vehicles side-by-side, only the EV has a chance of becoming significantly less polluting over time. The materials extracted for EV batteries will be reclaimed at the battery's end-of-life (which may or may not coincide with the vehicle's end-of-life), whereas diesel is a one-time use: you dig it up, refine it, burn it, and it's gone for good. If we ever get serious about adding a price to the otherwise ignored externalities of fossil fuels, EVs will become the vehicle of choice within a generation, because they'll be cheaper and simpler than any ICE.

    Cars didn't take over 100 years ago because we ran out of horses. And the first cars didn't compare too well against horses, either. Likewise, EVs are going to take over (hopefully) before we run out of fossil fuels.
  • It's a one-time problem, not an ongoing problem, for any given technology. More importantly, if carbon is being squeezed out of the economy as a whole, the carbon cost of mining steadily declines along with the carbon cost of everything else.

  • https://chargedevs.com/newswir... [chargedevs.com] see towards the bottom of this article which looks quite 'solid', multiple opinions, multiple rebuttals.

    Maybe someone can rebut these rebuttals?
  • Even if electric vehicles are not "zero-emissions" today, they are all "zero-emissions capable." Unlike fossil-fueled vehicles, electric vehicles produce no direct emissions. This means that any secondary emissions attributed to electric vehicles will be reduced over time as methods of generating electricity or mining materials reduce their emissions. You can think of this as "Latent zero-emissions." While using an electric vehicle today produces emissions, using today's EV in the future will produce fewer

  • Right, just amazing what you can do with statistics. Let's be clear about this: diesel motors are filthy. The cleanest diesel motor known to man is still filthy. No planted article about a commissioned study is going to change that.

  • Isn't the whole point of Electric Vehicles to get away from fossil fuels?
    Surely the infrastructure for producing electricity is already in place.
    Manufacturing processes are also in place, and the study doesn't seem to include all the CO2 used to produce the Diesel counterparts, so I call B.S. here.

    As systems improve, so will the CO2 emissions of production drop.

    I really wish Big Oil would just give it up already. We need to have clean vehicles and clean energy to power them. That, and the actual spending mo

  • The so called "study" is the same nonsense that made it to the media 2 years ago as "Schwedenstudie" - because it's essentially the same.

    There are so many flaws in this "study" that it's pretty much completely useless:
    - old data
    - wrong data
    - wrong assumptions
    - wrong comparisons

  • They don't say in the article but I would suspect they didn't go down either rabbit hole enough.

    What are the CO2 costs for making a Diesel engine along with all its additional hardware that a EV has? What are the costs of mining, transporting, distributing, and storing all that oil? How about all the supply chains for the addition spare parts of a diesel?

    All those factors lean against diesel. And this is before we get into distributed pollution vs concentrated pollution. We can mess up a small location a

  • Yes, their is a lot of carbon emissions embedded in the construction of electric vehicles. The article is defeatist and implies we shouldn't even try. One would hope they'd start using renewables to build them and to recharge them. They should think of end to end costs. They should factor in all externalities as the true carbon cost of a vehicle. I think the best vehicles would be a biodiesel electric hybrid (diesel-electric is an old tried and true technology [curbsideclassic.com]). Of course the solution isn't electric or hybr
  • by Junta ( 36770 ) on Sunday April 28, 2019 @02:30PM (#58506172)

    Did they also count the footprint of the mining and manufacture of the internal combustion engine?

    Did they count the footprint of extracting and refining the fuel in addition to what the fuel itself emits?

    Even if fair, is the right answer 'therefore give up on EV' or is it 'therefore, we need to fix the grid'.

An adequate bootstrap is a contradiction in terms.

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