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United States Science

US Birthrate Is Lowest In 32 Years, CDC Says (npr.org) 424

An anonymous reader quotes a report from NPR: The U.S. birthrate fell again in 2018, to 3,788,235 births -- representing a 2% drop from 2017. It's the lowest number of births in 32 years, according to a new federal report. The numbers also sank the U.S. fertility rate to a record low. Not since 1986 has the U.S. seen so few babies born. And it's an ongoing slump: 2018 was the fourth consecutive year of birth declines, according to the provisional birthrate report from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Birthrates fell for nearly all racial and age groups, with only slight gains for women in their late 30s and early 40s, the CDC says.

In what's widely seen as a bright spot in the CDC's provisional data, teenagers saw another sharp drop in birthrates, falling 7% in 2018 to 17.4 births per 1,000 teenagers between the ages of 15 and 19. That rate has now declined by 58% since 2007 and by 72% since 1991. The rate of cesarean delivery, or C-section, fell to 31.9% in 2018, the CDC says. That's down from a peak of 32.9% in 2009. The rate of cesarean procedures in low-risk cases also decreased, to 25.9% of all deliveries. From 2017 to 2018, the number of births fell 1% for Hispanic women and 2% for non-Hispanic white and non-Hispanic black women. The rate fell by 3% for women who are identified as non-Hispanic Asian and non-Hispanic AIAN (American Indian & Alaska Native).
As for what's causing the drop, many current or would-be parents who responded to the report cite the frustration of finding child care to high insurance costs and a lack of parental leave and other support systems. They also note that while the national economy has done well, workers' paychecks haven't been growing at the same pace.

"The latest birthrate data put the U.S. further away from a viable replacement rate -- the standard for a generation being able to replicate its numbers," the report says in closing. "The U.S. has generally fallen short of that level since 1971, the CDC says."
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US Birthrate Is Lowest In 32 Years, CDC Says

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  • by Aristos Mazer ( 181252 ) on Thursday May 16, 2019 @10:39PM (#58606124)
    We are a nation of immigrants, mostly. As long as we welcome more people to our nation and, as we do so, inculcate our values into them, the USA will endure. That means having a strong education program open to everyone who arrives and support to help new arrivals get on their feet. A relatively lax policy on who can come into the country would also help. The new arrivals may not look like those of us already here physically, but the USA is a nation that spreads more on memes than on DNA. Seeing immigrants as our successors rather than as our replacements is the key.
    • Re: (Score:3, Interesting)

      Not seeing an issue to solve. Certainly too sharp of a population decline creates the Japan problem, but we do need some decline.

      • by gtall ( 79522 ) on Friday May 17, 2019 @04:45AM (#58607056)

        I see, so you'll be wanting to lock in those reduced SS benefits for your retirement. How much reduction should I put you down for?

      • by AmiMoJo ( 196126 )

        Is there an problem with overpopulation in the US?

        There are environmental issues but those can be solved by being more efficient. Europeans live a similar or better quality of life and use a lot fewer resources, for example.

        Population decline brings some serious problems. Stability is usually a better goal.

        • Is there an problem with overpopulation in the US?

          In a word...no.

          The USA is the 179th most densely populated country in the world.

          We're higher than Sweden, Norway, and Finland, but lower than anywhere else in Europe (and lower than Europe as a whole, of course).

      • The issue is that it's not the old ones that are missing from the equation but the young ones. Else it would indeed be no problem at all.

    • by religionofpeas ( 4511805 ) on Friday May 17, 2019 @12:11AM (#58606372)

      I thought robots were going to take all jobs. In that case, immigration is not needed, and it would only result in having more people to support.

      • to keep growing your economy, you need more people, robots don't buy much.
        • to keep growing your economy, you need more people, robots don't buy much.

          If I want a nice new car, and there's a robot that can build it for me, why would I need anybody else ? If my neighbor also buys a new car from the same robot, it doesn't affect me at all.

          • You're one of a kind, really. For a lot of people it highly matters that they are the only ones who can have something.

            If you want to see this taken to absurd heights, watch those models go apeshit if they notice that someone else is wearing the same dress they do.

          • by harrkev ( 623093 )

            The whole think should be self-correcting. If you don't have a job, then you don't have money to buy anything, even if a robot made it. So people NEED to have money in order for the robots to have anybody to produce goods for.

    • We are full up on unskilled masses right now. Doctors, scientists, come right on in. People who are illiterate and from backwards cultures that don't believe in gay marriage or trans women in women's bathrooms? We can't use them. Moreover we can't inoculate them with "American values" because that's assimilation, the opposite of multiculturalism. The old melting pot metaphor was discarded as racist quite some time ago; I'm surprised to see someone peddling a discredited theory like that in public these days
    • We are a nation of immigrants, mostly. As long as we welcome more people to our nation and, as we do so, inculcate our values into them, the USA will endure. That means having a strong education program open to everyone who arrives and support to help new arrivals get on their feet. A relatively lax policy on who can come into the country would also help. The new arrivals may not look like those of us already here physically, but the USA is a nation that spreads more on memes than on DNA. Seeing immigrants as our successors rather than as our replacements is the key.

      Yeah, I'd hate to have the "problem" of more land, housing, jobs, etc. available.

      And they may not "look" like "us", but ... oops, they don't have our values of freedom or democracy either.

      Or even equality for women - we are furiously importing people who literally drape their women and treat them like property. Whoops.

    • Why do you think fewer people is an issue? With automation, we're going to have more people than ever that don't have a means of supporting themselves.

      http://fortune.com/2019/01/10/... [fortune.com]

    • by harrkev ( 623093 )

      America is also a nation of laws. I support immigrants (several in my family are), but I only want the immigrants that come here legally...

  • So is that saying that 32 years ago the birthrate was lower than today? And they are complaining that it's too low now?

    • by Solandri ( 704621 ) on Thursday May 16, 2019 @11:05PM (#58606250)
      The title is wrong. The absolute number of births fell to a 32-year low, not the birthrate. The birthrate is the lowest it's ever been in history. The population is about 50% higher than it was 32 years ago, so for 50% more people having fewer births than 32 years ago gives you some idea how far the birthrate has fallen.

      I'd like to say it's surprising the editors didn't catch this error. But it's par for the course for the editors here. The title of TFA is "U.S. Births Fell To A 32-Year Low In 2018" so apparently they didn't even read the title of TFA before approving the article.
  • Only a fool thinks unlimited growth is wise. Eventually we choke and our standard of living drops. Most of these idiots only care about unborn life.

  • by LucasBC ( 1138637 ) on Thursday May 16, 2019 @11:09PM (#58606266)
    It's unfortunate a story like this is portrayed in a negative light. Any news about a reduction in population growth should be considered celebratory regardless where it is happening on the planet.
  • by FeelGood314 ( 2516288 ) on Thursday May 16, 2019 @11:17PM (#58606290)
    This may be politically in correct but there are 2 things that will increase the birth rate

    If women have no security of their bodies at home they will marry or be married off at a young age and start having babies - This is the reason for high birth rates in Afghanistan and parts of India and Africa.

    If women have men their own age with stable jobs and a viable future they will marry and have kids. When factories started employing teenagers, women got married very young. The jobs might not have been amazing but they were stable. We saw this in England, Germany, Ireland (yes, Ireland was the first location for English offshoring to lower wages), the USA and every other country that under went industrialization.

    So if you want to increase birth rates you need young men, with good careers at young ages. Right now in Canada, most men under 30 owe more than they are worth and even if they have a good paying job they might not have any stability. Women have higher education levels than men (I suspect because high school favours them) and women are reluctant to marry a man with less education than them..

    If a woman wants to have more than 2 healthy kids she has to start before she is 30. Kids are tiring, they require a lot of learning and lack of sleep. They are something you have to start when you are young.
    • Re: (Score:3, Insightful)

      by Rockoon ( 1252108 )
      I cant help but think the MGTOW/MRA movement might also have something to do with it. More and more young men are saying that they want no part of the system that is "rigged against them."
      • by fafalone ( 633739 ) on Friday May 17, 2019 @04:17AM (#58606978)
        I don't support MGTOW but it's really hard to argue divorce, and especially child custody, isn't massively biased in favor of women. And contrary to the narrative, men make up a substantial percent of domestic violence victims, but it's basically treated like a joke. If men are victims, or the violence is mutual (very common), it's also almost always men who are made to leave a shared residence by authorities.
        It's stupid to avoid marriage entirely because of this or claim society in general is biased against men, but in domestic matters, yeah it's a bit rigged.
        • by MrKaos ( 858439 ) on Friday May 17, 2019 @07:17AM (#58607462) Journal

          I don't support MGTOW but it's really hard to argue divorce, and especially child custody, isn't massively biased in favor of women.

          MGTOW is a perfectly legitimate response to family law because of this massive bias.

          And contrary to the narrative, men make up a substantial percent of domestic violence victims, but it's basically treated like a joke.

          Worse still women on woman violence in lesbian couples is four times the rate (IIRC) of women in hetero-sexual couples.

          If men are victims, or the violence is mutual (very common), it's also almost always men who are made to leave a shared residence by authorities.

          Along with paternity fraud. The whole purpose of marriage was to strengthen a fathers connection to children. This has been subverted and now boys are the most vulnerable members of our society.

          It's stupid to avoid marriage entirely because of this , but in domestic matters, yeah it's a bit rigged.

          No, it's wise to avoid marriage because it is a contract with the state where the female wields the power over a male. How is that equality?

          or claim society in general is biased against men

          More men die in industrial accidents at ten times the rate of women, men are sent off to war to die and male suicide rate after divorce is 77%. Biased against men is the *only* legitimate claim that can be made. White women are *the* most privileged members of our society so claims of "Patriarchy" are close to the most ridiculous statements I have ever heard because if it wasn't we wouldn't have the volume of single motherhood we do.

          More and more men are turning away from marriage and relationships in general because they are starting to realize it turns them into slaves. Until this changes the birth rate will continue to decline because, as much as men want to have children the legal consequences of relationships destroy men's lives. What sane man would want to risk that?

        • I don't support MGTOW but it's really hard to argue divorce, and especially child custody, isn't massively biased in favor of women.

          In the past men generally only went "MGTOW" (in spirit, not name) after they got burned. Now with the flow if informations and ideas on the internet, they are doing it before getting burned. It is just the name put to something thats been happening for a lot longer than people realize.

          MGTOW doesnt need support, in the same way that avoiding other dangerous activities doesnt need support.

          • In the past men generally only went "MGTOW" (in spirit, not name) after they got burned. Now with the flow if informations and ideas on the internet, they are doing it before getting burned. It is just the name put to something thats been happening for a lot longer than people realize.

            I wish this information was available 25 years ago. - Me, burn victim

        • by AmiMoJo ( 196126 )

          In the US less than 2% of custody issues gets to court. Most are settled out of court in arbitration, by mutual agreement.

          I'm not saying it's completely fair, there are problems with it, but at the same time the vast majority of cases are not settled by the legal system and the cases that are tend to be unusual and extreme, so probably are not representative of the general picture.

          • And you don't think out of court settlements are influenced by the expected outcome should a legal challenge be made? Not to mention the threat of false abuse/molestation allegations, which will of course be automatically believed. That the legal system is biased at all should be a huge problem too-- but the way you think, based on victimhood hierarchy, the racial bias on the criminal side is abhorrent but the anti male bias in family court is just dandy.
    • by RobinH ( 124750 )
      I'm not buying all your stuff. I live in Canada. We have 3 healthy kids and started having kids at 32. My wife has a Ph.D. and I have a bachelor's degree. We spent the later half of our 20's with my working and her getting her Ph.D. Our only debt is the house (about 50% paid off), and we have lots in retirement savings. I agree kids are tiring, but the stability of having established careers and being old/wise enough to know how to work hard and communicate well helps a lot. Early marriages & kid
    • by AmiMoJo ( 196126 ) on Friday May 17, 2019 @05:40AM (#58607184) Homepage Journal

      The forced choice between career and children is driving the birth rate down. If women could have both a career and children they would, but unfortunately that's not an option for many of them.

      As well as having better maternity leave and help back to work afterwards, men can step up and play a more equal role in child rearing.

      Also the high cost of having children is a factor. Nowadays one income isn't enough for a lot of people, and again the mother being able to continue earning will help alleviate that, as well as providing cheaper childcare services.

      • The forced choice between career and children is driving the birth rate down. If women could have both a career and children they would, but unfortunately that's not an option for many of them.

        As well as having better maternity leave and help back to work afterwards, men can step up and play a more equal role in child rearing.

        That's really an odd perspective, when you think about it.

        So the problem isn't that we had a cultural movement to force women out of child rearing and homemaking and into the career world, instead it's that we didn't apply enough magical fairy dust to make it work somehow?

        Also the high cost of having children is a factor. Nowadays one income isn't enough for a lot of people, and again the mother being able to continue earning will help alleviate that, as well as providing cheaper childcare services.

        Where does "providing cheaper childcare services" come from? We have to tax everybody super hard to pay for the same services that women used to provide for themselves?

        Wouldn't it be cheaper for white upper class women to just hire aiyah

      • Having a career in the first place is no longer an option for many, men and women.

        • by AmiMoJo ( 196126 )

          Indeed, which is another reason people are waiting until later to even think about kids. When all you have is a zero hour contract it doesn't make sense to take on such a massive financial burden.

      • by sinij ( 911942 )

        men can step up and play a more equal role in child rearing.

        You have to consider biological and physiological limitations. For example, men can't breastfeed. Men also don't have natural hormone-induced tendencies for nurture, so it is harder for men to develop motivation to adequately deal with a screaming, sick child in the middle of the night.

        Biological difference between sexes are real. Just like it is easier for men to lift heavy objects due to hormones making it easier to develop upper body strength, it is easier for women to deal with kids due to hormonal reg

      • (Father of 5 again)
        It's not about cost. It's about starting early. The poor can still have kids even in places like Norway. Women start early when they have a man that is stable and has potential for the future. It's about knowing you will always have food and a roof, even if that roof is a tiny one. Even if your clothes are from the goodwill and the baby's crib is a wooden box with blankets in it. Crap maternity and difficult childcare are not a big factor. The USA has a much higher birth rate than
    • You want a well paying job when you're under 30? You better be gay. I would hire a lesser qualified gay person over a straight person any day. For many reasons, the main one: Kids. Or the almost certain lack thereof. There is no maternity (or now paternity, yay equality!) leave to be feared. Kids get sick and parents get worried or even take time off to care for them. Then kids go to school and parents have to go to the various events of their kids "talent shows" that can't be scheduled for some reason for

    • by mjwx ( 966435 )

      This may be politically in correct but there are 2 things that will increase the birth rate

      Actually it's down to one thing, cost.

      I'm willing to be that to match the all time low birth rate with an all time high cost of raising children. So it's natural couples are putting off until later and having fewer children.

      If women have no security of their bodies at home they will marry or be married off at a young age and start having babies - This is the reason for high birth rates in Afghanistan and parts of India and Africa.

      And this has nothing to do with the younger generation caring for the elderly? There are no state pensions in the developing world, kids are the 401k so having more kids diversifies your portfolio. That's why poorer countries tend to have higher birth rates.

      they will marry and have kids

      What has marriage have to d

  • Good (Score:2, Interesting)

    I remember hearing about how population growth was out of control and how we didn't know how we would create enough food for everyone in the future.

    Sounds like a good thing then that birthrates are naturally lowering rather than having to limit the number of kids people can have like China did.

    • Re:Good (Score:4, Informative)

      by AmiMoJo ( 196126 ) on Friday May 17, 2019 @05:45AM (#58607194) Homepage Journal

      The world fertility rate has come way down, and is now approaching 2.1 which is the steady state (replace both parents + some extra for untimely deaths).

      https://ourworldindata.org/fer... [ourworldindata.org]

      The population of Earth is still rising because people are living longer, so more are alive at the same time. At the current rate we are on track for a total steady population of 11-12 billion around the year 2100.

      That amount is manageable. With efficient and sustainable farming they can all be fed, and all have a decent quality of life. And that's before considering the potential impact of things like lab-grown meat.

    • I remember hearing about how population growth was out of control and how we didn't know how we would create enough food for everyone in the future.

      Sounds like a good thing then that birthrates are naturally lowering rather than having to limit the number of kids people can have like China did.

      It would be, if we weren't inviting everybody from lands where it isn't falling.

  • Due to some combination of nature and nurture some people still have big families. They just feel like it, just like other people feel like having small families.

    And the children of big families are statistically more likely to have big families. So over time, the bigger families will again dominate. And the Malthusian Trap will be in place again.

    Of course, this might take some time, hundreds of years, and the robots will probably get us first.

  • *anthropogenic climate change,
    *the Anthropocene mass extinction event,
    *factory farming and industrial fishing...

    Our biggest existential threats can't be fixed until the human population goes down (at least an order of magnitude) to a sustainable level.

    Within a single generation, richer people tend to be vastly more destructive of the biosphere than poor people.

    We're unlikely to get down to a sustainable level before we make the biosphere uninhabitable for most species currently extant tho, unless we develop

  • In a press release today, Mother Nature thanked McDonald's and the rest of the fast food industry for making people so obese that they can't procreate. At approximately 16 tonnes of Carbon Dioxide Emissions per person per year, a decline in population is the just the beginning of possible good news for the planet.
  • is this good or bad news?
    does earth even support yet more people being born? some countries maybe might, but can the US?
    besides that, all the cited reasons (child care, high insurance, lack of parental leave, support systems) are legitimate and hard to argue against.

    rational thinking then must have you conclude that it's good news.

  • Is the system net positive or negative? That and the demographics kind of make a difference in the conclusions one draws about what action is required. No?

  • Too bad adoption isn't going up somehow. With births going down it would seem like there was more room for adoption, but even that is so insanely expensive. Not to mention the crappy situations some people get in where they pay tens of thousands of dollars to be approved to adopt... Then they pay all the medical bills for someone who is giving birth. And then the mother keeps the baby for free (no I'm not saying the mother should or shouldn't lose rights to the baby and have it taken from her, I'm just g

The unfacts, did we have them, are too imprecisely few to warrant our certitude.

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