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Earth Science

Earth Warming More Quickly Than Thought, New Climate Models Show (phys.org) 471

An anonymous reader quotes a report from Phys.Org: Greenhouse gases thrust into the atmosphere mainly by burning fossil fuels are warming Earth's surface more quickly than previously understood, according to new climate models set to replace those used in current UN projections, scientists said Tuesday. By 2100, average temperatures could rise 7.0 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels if carbon emissions continue unabated, separate models from two leading research centers in France showed. That is up to two degrees higher than the equivalent scenario in the Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change's (IPCC) 2014 benchmark 5th Assessment Report.

The new calculations also suggest that the Paris Agreement goals of capping global warming at "well below" two degrees, and 1.5C if possible, will be challenging at best, the scientists said. "With our two models, we see that the scenario known as SSP1 2.6 -- which normally allows us to stay under 2C -- doesn't quite get us there," Olivier Boucher, head of the Institute Pierre Simon Laplace Climate Modeling Center in Paris, told AFP. A new generation of 30-odd climate models known collectively as CMIP6 -- including the two unveiled Tuesday -- will underpin the IPCC's next major report in 2021.

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Earth Warming More Quickly Than Thought, New Climate Models Show

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  • In before "But the models don't agree, your logic is invalid" and "We didn't do it, nobody saw us do it, you can't prove anything".

    • by gweihir ( 88907 )

      "We didn't do it, nobody saw us do it, you can't prove anything".

      Unfortunately, that does not help one bit for global events.

  • Why not make a new cluster of models that will be proven incorrect when their predictions are testable in 20 years.
    • by Confused ( 34234 )

      Why not make a new cluster of models that will be proven incorrect when their predictions are testable in 20 years.

      That isn't as easy at it sounds, If you look at the data in the latest IPPC Climate Change report (AR5), the models mostly overlap until 2040.

      Look at this chart directly from the horses mouth [www.ipcc.ch]

  • for the good news!

    --
    Sent from Iceland
  • that nerds can science? These comments are telling me no. Nerds cannot science. Hell has frozen over. Wait, that's cold, proof!

  • by fredrated ( 639554 ) on Wednesday September 18, 2019 @12:14AM (#59206878) Journal

    ? The absolutely stupid comments like these that have taken over?

  • by Truth_Quark ( 219407 ) on Wednesday September 18, 2019 @01:01AM (#59206984) Journal
    That's the collapse of most ecosystems, a large drop in food production and accelerating sea level rise for the foreseeable future.

    High elevation parts of Northern Canada and Siberia will open up for agriculture. But the tropics become unlivable, the boreal forests have long collapsed, the amazon forest has collapsed, coral reefs have collapsed, the Indian monsoon has altered, and Himalayan snowfall has turned to rainfall causing flooding in the rainy season and insufficient water the rest of the time.
    • Re: (Score:2, Insightful)

      by gweihir ( 88907 )

      Maybe some humans will survive somewhere. But basically, this is the end if it happens.

      • by hey! ( 33014 ) on Wednesday September 18, 2019 @08:10AM (#59208022) Homepage Journal

        No doubt some humans will survive somewhere. We can live anywhere from tropical rain forests to the Arctic with pre-industrial tech. But this is *cultural* and *economic* extinction.

        The basic assumptions of people funding climate denialism aren't unreasonable, taking the likely scenarios in the IPCC reports. You don't have to be a genius to avoid the effects of warming that is gradual on an *economic* timescale. You just rebalance your portfolio every year and that automatically shifts your assets out of harm's way because climate change is slow enough that it shows up as flagging profits in one area and rising profits in another. In a world that warms another degree in eighty years it sucks to be poor or middle class, but that's not their problem.

        A five degree in eighty years is faster than society can adapt, and those numbers on a spreadsheet that say you're rich become just that: numbers.

    • by rainer_d ( 115765 ) on Wednesday September 18, 2019 @02:34AM (#59207176) Homepage

      That is unfortunately probably close to the reality. A sobering look into the future that no doubt most leading politicians have been briefed on a while ago.

      While it may seem insignificant, this also means the end of civilization and culture as we know it.

      In a scenario like this, extreme measures to produce, harvest, save and preserve resources and food have to be taken in such a way that the darkest times of North Korea and Cambodia will look like a romantic picnic on a sunny day in a meadow with flowers and butterflies - and that is actually one of the more positive outcomes.

      Given recent trends, a repeat of "Germany 1933-1945" is not totally off the table.

    • by angel'o'sphere ( 80593 ) <angelo...schneider@@@oomentor...de> on Wednesday September 18, 2019 @10:34AM (#59208674) Journal

      High elevation parts of Northern Canada and Siberia will open up for agriculture.
      No they won't.
      How do you come to that retarded idea?

      In a swamp nothing growth that we could eat, oh ... fern roots perhaps.

      Because temperature is increasing, the time of light does not. Aka length of day etc. Even if summer starts 30 days earlier, temperature wise, and lasts 30 days longer, it is still only a: 90 days summer ... what actually do you want to grow in that time? When do you want to plant it? Winter barley? Yes, it survives a typical (not so typical anymore) -10C german winter, so you can plant it in october or december and harvest it in may.

      Siberia unfortunately will always be -30C - -40C regardless of climate change, in winter. So nothing to plant. I really wonder why we have so many idiots on the planet in so called "first world countries" ... seems the school system must just suck, or parents are to lazy to teach common sense.

  • by melted ( 227442 ) on Wednesday September 18, 2019 @05:31AM (#59207532) Homepage

    What do the _measurements_ show? Models thus far were pretty abysmal at predicting the future, which kind of defeats their very purpose.

    • by hey! ( 33014 )

      *Which* model was abysmal? In what way is it abysmal? Do you *know*, or are you talking hearsay?

      It's not like there's only one view represented by models. Anyone can create a model, therefore there are models that represent outlier viewpoints. That makes it easy to cherry pick an outlier in their global scale predictions.

  • by fudgefactor7 ( 581449 ) on Wednesday September 18, 2019 @09:36AM (#59208414)
    We have the technological capability RIGHT NOW to suck the CO2 right out of the atmosphere and sequester it. Every continent, every nation, needs to build these atmosphere processors to do just that. Imagine, Russia with a thousands of them. Imagine the US and Canada with an equal number. Think the same for Australia (hello to my down-under friends), and Africa with so many it would be hard to count. The building of these processors will take time, yes, and resources--a lot--but the truth of the matter is clear: Do nothing, we all die; do something we all might live. Get them designed, get them built. Do it now and power the things up. There are jobs there--countless jobs--we can make "Saving the planet for human habitation" as the start of the next several centuries' economy of the world.

"Yes, and I feel bad about rendering their useless carci into dogfood..." -- Badger comics

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