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Earth

India's Ominous Future: Too Little Water, or Far Too Much (nytimes.com) 91

Posted by msmash from the closer-look dept.
Throughout India, the number of days with very heavy rains has increased over the last century. At the same time, the dry spells between storms have gotten longer. Showers that reliably penetrate the soil are less common. For a country that relies on rain for the vast share of its water, that combination is potentially ruinous. The New York Times reports: The rains are more erratic today. There's no telling when they might start, nor how late they might stay. This year, India experienced its wettest September in a century; more than 1,600 people were killed by floods; and even by the time traditional harvest festivals rolled around in October, parts of the country remained inundated. Even more troubling, extreme rainfall is more common and more extreme. Over the last century, the number of days with very heavy rains has increased, with longer dry spells stretching out in between. Less common are the sure and steady rains that can reliably penetrate the soil. This is ruinous for a country that gets the vast share of its water from the clouds. The problem is especially acute across the largely poor central Indian belt that stretches from western Maharashtra State to the Bay of Bengal in the east: Over the last 70 years, extreme rainfall events have increased threefold in the region, according to a recent scientific paper, while total annual rainfall has measurably declined.

"Global warming has destroyed the concept of the monsoon," said Raghu Murtugudde, an atmospheric scientist at the University of Maryland and an author of the paper. "We have to throw away the prose and poetry written over millennia and start writing new ones!" India's insurance policy against droughts, the Himalayas, is at risk, too. The majestic mountains are projected to lose a third of their ice by the end of the century if greenhouse gas emissions continue to rise at their current pace. But, as scientists are quick to point out, climate change isn't the only culprit to blame for India's water woes. Decades of greed and mismanagement are far more culpable. The lush forests that help to hold the rains continue to be cleared. Developers are given the green light to pave over creeks and lakes. Government subsidies encourage the over-extraction of groundwater.
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India's Ominous Future: Too Little Water, or Far Too Much More

India's Ominous Future: Too Little Water, or Far Too Much

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  • This was predicted by AGW experts for decades. We can fix it.

    • Re: (Score:1)

      by Kokuyo ( 549451 )

      My racist ass has to ask: But do we really, honestly want to?

      • I would think that if you were a racist you would want to, because otherwise they will all come into your country.

        • That isn't going to last, the far right in europe is rising, and the only way to appease them is to start kicking immigrants out or they'll seize the power and do it themselves, just you wait.

          • Yeah but that means conflict and it is better to avoid that whenever possible. That is why I try to avoid conflict when I post on Slashdot.

          • "That isn't going to last, the far right in europe is rising,"

            No, it's not.

            • Well, sort of, since the "European far right" is an American center-left so it's all a matter of perspective and personal geography.

              • Well, sort of, since the "European far right" is an American center-left so it's all a matter of perspective and personal geography.

                Well, no. There's been European leaders who behave the same way as our right-wingers. Socialism for the chosen, barbarism for everyone else. Some of them even wound up in the history books.

        • Re: (Score:2)

          by Kokuyo ( 549451 )

          You're right, of course. I don't see the EU implementing DDR like walls with snipers...

          Problem is I doubt even the majority of Indians has the capacity or will (or both) to do something here and I doubt we can do it for them.

          Do we know what kind of pollution is responsible for their troubles? If it's CO2, where are the cries and rallies for new nuclear plants? Those could be built real quick if we don't allow greenies to entangle them in tons of bureaucracy.

          Similar question about plastic waste. Most of the

    • Re: (Score:2)

      by Z00L00K ( 682162 )

      It's not possible to fix the weather, you will have to adapt to it.

      Climate is what we expect, weather is what we get.

      And in any case - I think we have experienced some decades of unusually mild and calm weather and now we pass into a period of more intense extreme weather.

    • Re: (Score:1, Insightful)

      by DesScorp ( 410532 )

      This was predicted by AGW experts for decades. We can fix it.

      LOL. "Experts" predicted floods. And drought. And boiling. And freezing. And hurricanes. And lack of hurricanes.

      Beachfront property is more expensive than ever. You know why? Because no one believes it's going to be under water. And they're right.

      Unless you're on Star Trek's Genesis planet, these predictions can't possibly be valid. They can't ALL be right, especially in the same geographic areas. And that's why your "experts" don't have the balls to say "We predict India will become a desert by *insert dat

      • You are a moron.
        That was actually clear from your beach front property idiocy.
        However, this tops it:
        They can't ALL be right, especially in the same geographic areas.
        I live about half a year in Thailand, Isaan.
        They lost most of the harvest around Khon Khaen, due to drought.
        My wife lives east of Sakhon Nakon, most farmers north of the river "Nam Kam" have a record harvest. 2km south on the other side of the river: they lost the harvest, due to flooding.

        Up to you to figure how close Khon Khaen to Sakon Nakhon

      • Yea, their predictions are comically inaccurate, and enough of them have been made to practically predict anything now. It it impossible to walk the prediction problem back because they have throw so much spaghetti at the wall they can now say they predicted whatever happens now.

        It is interesting to still see the AGW alarmists buying up and living in all of this at risk coastal lands. It's almost as if the leaders of the AGW Cult don't believe in what they are preaching. I know... they are doing the wor

      • This was predicted by AGW experts for decades. We can fix it.

        LOL. "Experts" predicted floods. And drought. And boiling. And freezing. And hurricanes. And lack of hurricanes.

        Beachfront property is more expensive than ever. You know why? Because no one believes it's going to be under water. And they're right.

        Unless you're on Star Trek's Genesis planet, these predictions can't possibly be valid. They can't ALL be right, especially in the same geographic areas. And that's why your "experts" don't have the balls to say "We predict India will become a desert by *insert date*. Go ahead, hold us to it". So they throw everything at the wall, and if one of them sticks for awhile, they'll go "A-Ha! See! We told you!".

        So go on and keep crying Wolf. The rest of us will continue to live our lives as normal, on a planet that continues to be normal.

        You go ahead and bury you head in the sand then while the adults talk then ok? The rest of us will solve this problem without your help.

        You're welcome.

      • "LOL. "Experts" predicted floods. And drought. And boiling. And freezing. And hurricanes. And lack of hurricanes." - its flooding more in flood prone areas, its dryer in drought areas, hotter in hot areas and colder in cold areas. just because its not all happening on your head, doesn't mean it isn't happening

    • "This was predicted by AGW experts for decades. We can fix it."

      Yes, cooling generators on Mount Everest.

      • "This was predicted by AGW experts for decades. We can fix it."

        Yes, cooling generators on Mount Everest.

        Legislation (vote)
        Reduced carbon emissions (solar, wind, geothermal, hydro, nuclear)
        Carbon capture (planting trees, emerging technology)

  • Here in the Midwest farmers have this same problem. It rains too much when they are trying to plant. Later when the rain stops, it can be quite a while before it rains again

  • Likey the next war (Score:5, Interesting)

    by goombah99 ( 560566 ) on Tuesday November 26, 2019 @09:25AM (#59456768)

    The next war probably will have some token cause like the assassination of Archduke Ferdinand Wang. But it will really be about the water that flows across borders.

    What this means is that increasingly countries will support militaristic ultra nationalist leaders. And that further lowers the threshold for war, since those kinds of leaders also see war as not just their mandate but to their own personal advantage.

    Sad but I don't see how any other result is possible in the long run.

    • Someone is going to kill the Archduke AGAIN? Poor guy. I better send him an email.

    • Like Fred Pohl predicted in his gloomy novel Jem?

    • The next war probably will have some token cause like the assassination of Archduke Ferdinand Wang. But it will really be about the water that flows across borders.

      What this means is that increasingly countries will support militaristic ultra nationalist leaders. And that further lowers the threshold for war, since those kinds of leaders also see war as not just their mandate but to their own personal advantage.

      Sad but I don't see how any other result is possible in the long run.

      Then I guess we'd better get hot (pun intended) rolling out nuclear, and finding technological solutions to sequester carbon.

  • not enough (Score:4, Insightful)

    by hdyoung ( 5182939 ) on Tuesday November 26, 2019 @09:25AM (#59456772)
    Humanity simply doesn't have enough people that 1) believe the problem is real and 2) care enough to do something about it.

    There will be no action taken on climate issues until the world experiences a series of in-your-face, too-big-to-be-ignored crises. Localized hurricane damage isn't enough. A few thousand homes destroyed in California doesn't cut it. Neither will a single city having a water crisis. Humanity won't act until we see city-busting hurricanes, heat waves that overwhelm the AC capacity of an entire region and cook tens of thousands of people to death, and water or heat problems so severe that entire cities need to be abandoned. In the past, our species was able to plan ahead, but currently, nothing less than this will get through our thick skulls.

    I'm generally an optimist, but not on this topic. We'd better hope that planet-wide geo-engineering is viable, because we're going to need it.

    • It will be too late by then. We need to take action NOW! Who is with me?

      • Re: (Score:2)

        by Kokuyo ( 549451 )

        Nope. I've been trying to rally people for one cause or another for years and the one thing I learned is that it won't take long for your movement to be undermined by knee-jerk reactionist idiots.

        I think there's a good chance you might be one of them so nope, not gonna ally with you and people like you.

        • What cause have you been trying to rally people for? More cheese on hamburgers? Different Dorito flavors? We need to act now on Climate Change. This is the most important problem to solve in our entire History.

          • Re: (Score:3)

            by Nidi62 ( 1525137 )

            What cause have you been trying to rally people for? More cheese on hamburgers?

            I could rally behind that. Most burgers never have enough cheese. 2 slices is the only acceptable minimum. That way you have 8 corners melting down the side instead of 4.

            • OK. Well lets start with that. We demand more cheese on burgers NOW! Who is with me? Where is Greta?

              • OK. Well lets start with that. We demand more cheese on burgers NOW! Who is with me? Where is Greta?

                Lobbying against the existence of cheeseburgers...

            • What cause have you been trying to rally people for? More cheese on hamburgers?

              I could rally behind that. Most burgers never have enough cheese. 2 slices is the only acceptable minimum. That way you have 8 corners melting down the side instead of 4.

              I can get on board with this.

            • I demand real cheese on burgers, not that plastic like slice

          • Re: (Score:2)

            by Kokuyo ( 549451 )

            I've been talking people's ears off about pragmatic, quick and affordable stop-gap solutions to CO2, I've been talking to them about polyester clothing long before microplastics were a thing. I've been talking about considering how to balance social nets with the economy in a time of aging population, ageism and automation.

            I've also been advocating for punishing politicians that are caught lying and I've been asking to discuss how we could get the media to actually do their duty as the fourth power in a dem

            • Ah, yes. I think I saw you on the metro. You have been doing a great job. Keep it up.

            • So what? We will replace polyester with animal products (that will get the animal rights people upset)? Or maybe plant products that will require clearing additional land, more water, or displacing food crops?

              Was reading an article a couple days ago about environmentalists protesting forestry practices here. So we are to use less concrete and more wood, and replace plastic straws and cups and containers with paper ones.....seems to me we have been through this before. These are all tradeoffs, and they a

          • Demographic decline among the cultures capable of sustaining modernity. Resource depletion in general and the dangers of hitting a a resource limit too fast for resource replacement or recycling technology to fix in time. We're running headlong in more walls than just climate change ... at the same time when new WMD tech (CRISPR), long ranged weaponry (drones) and militancy among the world's second largest religion is spreading fast.

            I'm not optimistic about the survival of high tech civilization, regardless

        • Nope. I've been trying to rally people for one cause or another for years and the one thing I learned is that it won't take long for your movement to be undermined by knee-jerk reactionist idiots.

          I think there's a good chance you might be one of them so nope, not gonna ally with you and people like you.

          I think the best first step we can make is to discourage people from burying their heads in the sand.

      • Re: (Score:2, Troll)

        by Darth Maul ( 19860 )

        Perfect - get India and China to start doing something about it while you're at it.

        • I called them and they are on board. They also sold me an extended warranty on my car and helped me repay my college loans.

    • In the past, our species was able to plan ahead

      Citation? Seriously, I can't recall any evidence that we, as a species, have "planned ahead" past the next election/whatever-cycle-that-picks-the-new-boss....

    • Michael Bay, is that you?

    • Re:not enough (Score:4, Insightful)

      by SirAstral ( 1349985 ) on Tuesday November 26, 2019 @09:54AM (#59456952)

      How full of shit can one be?

      "Humanity simply doesn't have enough people that 1) believe the problem is real and 2) care enough to do something about it."

      Yes, we in fact do have enough. I am tired of this lie being bandied about like it's an awareness issue. Most everyone has already taken a side, and guess what? A large portion of them smells a lot of BS in the AGW debate. This is not an awareness or belief issue... this is a "convincing" issue and less you lie about shit the easier it is to gain traction with skeptics.

      "There will be no action taken on climate issues until the world experiences a series of in-your-face, too-big-to-be-ignored crises."

      There has been a large amount of actions taken. You sound like a little kid that screams they "never" get to eat where they want after already eating McDonald's 4 times this week and the parents only said... not today. There has been many meetings, policies, accords, and efforts made by businesses and government alike to address global warming. Face it... you want a literal fucking "Dictator" that believes in AGW Cult Style before you are going to be happy. That is a problem friend!

      "I'm generally an optimist, but not on this topic."

      We figured that one out alright.

      "We'd better hope that planet-wide geo-engineering is viable, because we're going to need it."

      Yea, I am not sure I would be okay with folks like you engineering anything. You are only going to make it worse because you are too willing to take counter productive actions that will create more harm because you follow the logic that "it's better to do something, than doing nothing". People like this never seem to understand that when you do something... it had better be a right something to do, or you just made the problem worse. Humans are really bad at this history has shown.

      • "There has been many meetings, policies, accords, and efforts made by businesses and government alike to address global warming"
         
        LOL.

        • https://www.theatlantic.com/po... [theatlantic.com]

          So when Trump pulled USA out of the Paris agreement that was nothing.

          You folks need to make up your mind. Are you doing something or are you doing nothing? Which is it...?

          • The Paris agreement was "nothing" itself. Europe continued to increase their greenhouse gas output every year since the "accord". Not sure what Trump has to do with it.

      • How full of shit can one be?

        I don't know. Why don't you show us?

        we in fact do have enough. I am tired of this lie being bandied about like it's an awareness issue.

        That's not the claim at all. The claim is that there are people in denial (which is not about lack of awareness, but about lack of fortitude) and people with an abundance of apathy. And we know it's true, because people are not reacting to this existential threat by storming the halls of power en masse. Instead, we're waiting for someone to fix it for us.

      • So, 50 years ago we were dumping the wrong flourocarbon compounds into the atmosphere and punched a large hole in the ozone layer. The hole was getting bigger, too. Once the science was well-understood, the entire world got together and decided to mandate several world-wide changes to the refrigerants industry. There were deniers, and industries that complained about the cost. These people were politely told "shut up and follow the new rules, or the reset of us will shut you down. Nobody else cares if you d

    • Humanity simply doesn't have enough people that 1) believe the problem is real and 2) care enough to do something about it.

      There will be no action taken on climate issues until the world experiences a series of in-your-face, too-big-to-be-ignored crises. Localized hurricane damage isn't enough. A few thousand homes destroyed in California doesn't cut it. Neither will a single city having a water crisis. Humanity won't act until we see city-busting hurricanes, heat waves that overwhelm the AC capacity of an entire region and cook tens of thousands of people to death, and water or heat problems so severe that entire cities need to be abandoned. In the past, our species was able to plan ahead, but currently, nothing less than this will get through our thick skulls.

      Big part of the problem is that people have a tough time visualizing what a would with 10 degree increase will look like. It doesn't sound that bad after all does it?

      But you have done a pretty good job trying to visualize it. Truth is it's hard to say exactly what it will look like, but we are fairly certain it won't be good. As evidenced by what we have seen already with only marginal increases.

      People don't realize the ripple effect change like this can have on the delicate balance of earth systems.

      But I think we will act. As technology continues to advance I think we will make progress, I just hope we can figure out how to do it fast enough.

      I'm generally an optimist, but not on this topic. We'd better hope that planet-wide geo-engineering is viable, because we're going to need it.

      • Goddamnit i embedded my response inside the quote... oh well.

      • Truth is it's hard to say exactly what it will look like, but we are fairly certain it won't be good. As evidenced by what we have seen already with only marginal increases.

        The last century has seen the greatest advancements in human health, societal progress, and global living standards in all of history, and it is not slowing down.

        Clearly what we have seen already differs.

  • Tip of the iceberg. (Score:3)

    by Gravis Zero ( 934156 ) on Tuesday November 26, 2019 @09:47AM (#59456888)

    If you think that's bad, just wait until you learn about the other effects of global warming. Locations of arable land are also going to be moving which will result in famine, starvation and war, lots of war. Disease is going to take a large bite out of the population due to more temperate climates. A hell of a lot of people are going to die.

    Famine, disease, war and death. If that doesn't strike you as apocalyptic then nothing will. The populous needs to wake up so that we can fix this.

    • Darn populous. They are always asleep.

    • "Famine, disease, war and death. If that doesn't strike you as apocalyptic then nothing will. "

      As long as they don't get horses, we'll be OK.

    • If you think that's bad, just wait until you learn about the other effects of global warming. Locations of arable land are also going to be moving which will result in famine, starvation and war, lots of war. Disease is going to take a large bite out of the population due to more temperate climates. A hell of a lot of people are going to die.

      Famine, disease, war and death. If that doesn't strike you as apocalyptic then nothing will. The populous needs to wake up so that we can fix this.

      Sounds good to me. Let's go nuclear for energy, now.

      And come up with technological solutions for sequestering carbon and cooling the earth.

  • Good bye monsoons! (Score:1)

    by Anonymous Coward
    Geology vs global warming for 100 Alex. I can see the geology changing in the area and sure the Ganges drying up has been predicted long before global warming alarmism, but to be safe and be with the in-crowd we'll all say global warming even though we know it's probably just the changing geology. What is global warming. Alex. Wrong, and now for the daily double!

  • Is India Stupid or something? (Score:1)

    by Anonymous Coward
    How about building some dams, collecting the water, CLEAN the water (important step), and then redistribute it to where it is needed? Flooding can be controlled you know....
    • India has flood dams and reservoirs all over. They are just not big enough, but that is in part, due to design. In particular, the Ganges is their most important river and is 'the lifeblood' of the hindus. As such, they do not want to stop it too much.

      But agree with you about cleaning the water. Ugh. My wife wants to go there and have our kids go in the water and I refuse to allow that. Russia, China and India have some of the worst water in the world, and ganges is right up there. Sad.

  • Before the wars, Afghanistan had a 3000-year-old network of irrigation channels, that kept everything green, despite a similar situation.

    India could construct such a system. All it takes is a lot of shovels and pickaxes.

    And of course a leadership that actually leads.

  • and build some dams for reservoirs, i think the USA should do more investment in hydroelectric, and scale them down so even smaller dams be built too there is the Grand Coulee and Hoover dams those are HUGE, but even smaller dams could help supplement the existing power grid
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?... [youtube.com]

  • Global warming?! That's old skool... (Score:3)

    by skaralic ( 676433 ) on Tuesday November 26, 2019 @12:58PM (#59458244)

    Global warming has destroyed the concept of the monsoon

    Keep up brah, it's now "climate change". It's a much more handy term as you can use it to describe anything kind of behaviour whatsoever. Or you can go with "climate emergency", in which case it's just a feeling and not subject to criticism.

    • Global warming has destroyed the concept of the monsoon

      Keep up brah, it's now "climate change". It's a much more handy term as you can use it to describe anything kind of behaviour whatsoever. Or you can go with "climate emergency", in which case it's just a feeling and not subject to criticism.

      It's a better term too, because it's cold as fuck here.

  • Check out what Sadhguru is doing
  • Commonly known as "reservoirs", or more simply, "holes".
  • Seriously, India needs this. China has built dams at the tops of India's water sources. Sadly, China first tried to deny they were building, then when shown the sat photos, they said that they were to prevent flooding. Problem is, that the dams are NOT for flood control, but diversionary. China could and likely will, divert the water that normally flows to all of south east asia when they see fit. As such, India needs to make sure that they have water supplies.

    The west needs this as well. We are not th

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