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Earth

Two Top Scientists Warn That The Amazon, and Earth, Have Reached a Tipping Point (msn.com) 281

An anonymous reader quotes the Washington Post: "The precious Amazon is teetering on the edge of functional destruction and, with it, so are we," Thomas Lovejoy of George Mason University and Carlos Nobre of the University of Sao Paulo in Brazil, both of whom have studied the world's largest rainforest for decades, wrote in an editorial in the journal Science Advances. "Today, we stand exactly in a moment of destiny: The tipping point is here, it is now."

Combined with recent news that the thawing Arctic permafrost may be beginning to fill the atmosphere with greenhouse gases, and that Greenland's ice sheet is melting at an accelerating pace, it's the latest hint that important parts of the climate system may be moving toward irreversible changes at a pace that defies earlier predictions...

In interviews, Lovejoy and Nobre said they decided to sound a dire alarm about the Amazon after witnessing the acceleration of troubling trends. The combination of rising temperatures, crippling wildfires and ongoing land clearing for cattle ranching and crops has extended dry seasons, killed off water-sensitive vegetation and created conditions for more fire. The Amazon is 17 percent deforested, but for the large portion of it inside Brazil, the figure is closer to 20 percent. The fear is that soon there will be so little forest that the trees, which not only soak up enormous quantities of rainwater but also give off mist that aids agriculture and sustains innumerable species, won't be able to recycle enough rainfall At that point, much of the rainforest could decline into a drier savanna ecosystem. Rainfall patterns would change across much of South America. Several hundred billion tons of carbon dioxide could wind up in the atmosphere, worsening climate change. And such a feedback loop would be tough to reverse.

That point of no return, commonly referred to by scientists as a tipping point, "is much closer than we anticipated," Nobre said in an interview.... In combination, the Amazon and Arctic news underscores that even as humans are largely failing to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, the Earth may increase such emissions yet further. Still, it is possible to slow the transformation of the Amazon through reforestation, researchers said. "A tipping point is a way to talk about a moment of system shift or system change," Lovejoy said. "In this case, it's not going to be instantaneous, and that's good news. It allows you to do something about it."

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Two Top Scientists Warn That The Amazon, and Earth, Have Reached a Tipping Point

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  • Amazon (Score:3, Funny)

    by anonymouscoward52236 ( 6163996 ) on Monday December 23, 2019 @03:15AM (#59549286)
    Can we fix this with more Prime Now 2-hour deliveries?
  • People (Score:5, Interesting)

    by bool2 ( 1782642 ) on Monday December 23, 2019 @03:22AM (#59549294) Homepage
    People don't like to hear things that make them uncomfortable so they prefer to pretend this is not a problem (or if it is, it doesn't affect them personally.) No amount of evidence can convince them - they don't want to exit Dreamland - but you can make them very angry trying. Brazil should be given ultimatums to stop the destruction of an important world resource.
    • Re: (Score:2, Insightful)

      by b666 ( 6368238 )
      People don't like to hear that things today are the best they've ever been, and that things are still getting better. People don't like to acknowledge that even many poor people live better than kings and emperors of the past. No amount of rigorous statistics of improving human well-being will convince them. They want to believe in doom, and they'll get very angry if you suggest that maybe the end isn't nigh.
    • Re: (Score:2, Insightful)

      by skovnymfe ( 1671822 )

      I kind of like the Brazilian guy's argument of "what gives you the right to impose ultimatums on Brazil burning down its forests for profit when you all went and burned down your forests for profit already?"

      Offloading all the blame on Brazil for being late to the game is retarded at best. Don't be retarded. Look beyond the immediate symptom and find the actual issue at play.

      • Partially true

        At least progress is being made within the argument itself, amongst the dominant species on the planet that has exhibited an unprecedented ability to terraform the environment to suit its needs. We have mostly progressed beyond the nothing's happening argument to the Is the change we're witnessing anthropogenic argument.

        An truly advanced worldly civilization might offer Brazil (and other nation-states) financial incentives to stem the deforestation of the Amazon, which is essentially just po

        • Partially true

          At least progress is being made within the argument itself, amongst the dominant species on the planet that has exhibited an unprecedented ability to terraform the environment to suit its needs. We have mostly progressed beyond the nothing's happening argument to the Is the change we're witnessing anthropogenic argument.

          An truly advanced worldly civilization might offer Brazil (and other nation-states) financial incentives to stem the deforestation of the Amazon, which is essentially just poor people trying to eke out a living. Just in fucking case we are the cause; and if we are, we have the capacity to be the cure.

          No it is not poor people trying to eek out a living. The big profits are being had by a small number of log poachers who support the assholes in power. And by a small number of range land cattle men that also support the assholes in power. The farms are not sustainable and only last a few years until the soil becomes useless. The biomass is largely in the trees. In case you have not noticed there is a huge amount of hardwood now being sold cheap for flooring, it is very trendy to put in "tropical hardwood"

        • I think offering incentives to keep the forest is approaching the problem from the wrong end.

          The cutting of the forest is driven by profit and will continue to be driven by profit for so long as there is profit to be had. Deprive them of the ability to profit from cutting the forest, and poof. No more cutting.

          This is of course the much, much harder target that no one wants to go at, because that would flip the table on a lot of high-end industries depending on this palm oil to survive.

    • Re:People (Score:4, Interesting)

      by blindseer ( 891256 ) <blindseer@noSPAm.earthlink.net> on Monday December 23, 2019 @02:00PM (#59550994)

      People don't like to hear things that make them uncomfortable so they prefer to pretend this is not a problem (or if it is, it doesn't affect them personally.) No amount of evidence can convince them - they don't want to exit Dreamland - but you can make them very angry trying. Brazil should be given ultimatums to stop the destruction of an important world resource.

      I'll tell you what people don't want to hear. People don't want to hear that the world cannot be saved by the power we can get from wind, water, and sun. People don't want to hear that we need nuclear power to get our CO2 emissions to zero. With nuclear power (and also power from wind, water, and sun) we don't have to "exit Dreamland". We are living in the future. What we have now is a world people dreamed of for thousands of years. We don't have to impose poverty on ourselves to get to zero carbon, all we need to remove the threat of global warming is to move to the proven technologies that are safe, clean, low in cost, high in energy return, low in demand for raw materials and land, and are abundant.

      We need onshore windmills, hydroelectric dams, geothermal power, and nuclear fission reactors. We need ALL of them, but it's only nuclear power that seems to get the most opposition from the global warming alarmists. Why is that? My guess is because it doesn't "hurt", that it's nearly invisible. Nuclear power does not require any sacrifice, because it's already proven safer than anything we have for energy, it's so abundant that we will run out of sunshine before we run out of uranium and thorium for fuel, and because the power plants are so small for the power it outputs they just disappear. Solar panels and off shore windmills, on the other hand, those we can see. Those we cannot hide among the trees of a forest, or among the buildings of so many other grey buildings in a city like a nuclear power plant.

      No amount of evidence will convince these people that wind, water, and sun will not power a modern economy. They insist we destroy our economy to save the planet. We don't have to do this. We can save the planet and stay in the "Dreamland" we created. But we need nuclear to do this. Is nuclear power any real threat to anyone? How can anyone fear nuclear power more than global warming?

      These people are showing hate of technological progress, a hate of freedom and abundance, they hate the people that bring this progress to the world, and most of all they hate themselves. These people have had so many threats removed from them that their minds had to create a threat. They saw a threat in global warming, but that's a solved problem if we get enough nuclear power to replace the coal and natural gas we use for heat and electricity. So then the real threat is not global warming any more, the great threat is nuclear power.

      People don't want to hear that the problem of global warming is solved. They hold protests and hold up traffic. They demand something be done while simultaneously stopping people from doing anything with lawsuits and vandalism. They don't want to hear that there is nothing to fear any more. No amount of evidence will convince them. They want to stay in their nightmare, and drag everyone into this nightmare with them.

  • by FudRucker ( 866063 ) on Monday December 23, 2019 @03:30AM (#59549312)
    is doomed then we deserve it for not taking better care of this planet
  • If the 'tipping points' we've reached were now in the thousands.
  • Ironic, as over geological timescales, Earth CO2 will be dropping to 0% as CO2 absorption via weathering of rocks outstrips the slowing co2 production via volcanism [skepticalscience.com]. over around the next 600 million years [wikipedia.org].

    Earth CO2 has been between half as much and 10 times as much [wikipedia.org] throughout history as it is right now. If CO2 rises it just means the planet becomes hot, rich in vegetation and ideal for huge cold blooded herbivorous lizards for a while again.

    • by Stephan Schulz ( 948 ) <schulz@eprover.org> on Monday December 23, 2019 @04:55AM (#59549424) Homepage

      If CO2 rises it just means the planet becomes hot, rich in vegetation and ideal for huge cold blooded herbivorous lizards for a while again.

      Great if you are a huge, cold-blooded herbivorous lizard. Less good, if you are a marginally evolved ape relying on complex world-wide networks for survival and comfort. And of course the transition sometime is a bit uncomfortable [wikipedia.org]. But you may get to brag about "experiencing the Second Great Dying" to your grandchildren...ooops, maybe not.

    • And back then the sun was less strong so you needed more co2 to not have everything be frozen
    • Earth CO2 will be dropping to 0% as CO2 absorption via weathering of rocks outstrips the slowing co2 production via volcanism. over around the next 600 million years.

      So next time millions of climate refugees present themselves at other peoples' borders, just tell them to turn back and sit this one out.

      • LOL, dude, I'm not touching the immigration issue with a 10 foot pole, Sorry to be harsh, but that's your problem, not mine.

        • Sorry to be harsh, but that's your problem, not mine.

          It isn't mine, yet. But it will be. And it will definitely be your problem too.

        • by lenski ( 96498 )

          It will be interesting when the refugee crisis becomes so serious that your "government" asserts a National Emergency and Martial Law, giving too much control to the control freaks who are constantly salivating for it. It won't be your problem until it becomes your problem, with very little warning. History provides plenty of examples worth studying.

          I am optimistic that the real shitstorm won't arrive until after my wife and I have gone due to natural causes.

          ... Unless the denying geniuses running our eco

    • by AbRASiON ( 589899 ) * on Monday December 23, 2019 @06:34AM (#59549542) Journal

      As cliche and simple as it is, check the xkcd image of the warming.
      It's the time frame in which it's occurring. It might feel slow - but geologically, it's astronomically fast.

      We're fucked.

      https://xkcd.com/1732/ [xkcd.com]

      • Re: (Score:3, Insightful)

        by blindseer ( 891256 )

        We're fucked.

        No, we are doing just fine.

        We need to stop telling the next generation that by the time they are old enough to have children of their own that the climate will collapse. It will not.

        In 100 years there will still be birds flying overhead, the air and water will still be clean, the trees will still be growing, we will still have food, and while everyone reading this may all be gone the planet will still have billions of happy and healthy humans living on it.

        Nearly every day I see something new on how someone

        • This post reads entirely like someone who has little understanding of science, mathematics, inertia but definitely knows how to "someone think of the children".

          Some of us are thinking of the children, we're not having them.

    • by necro81 ( 917438 )

      Ironic, as over geological timescales, Earth CO2 will be dropping to 0% as CO2 absorption via weathering of rocks outstrips the slowing CO2 production via volcanism. over around the next 600 million years.

      Ah, so you live on geologic time scales then? Well, that's nice for you.

      I am going to be around (fingers crossed) for at least a few more decades; I have children and younger friends. And, oh yes, I give a shit about the large-scale, multi-generational survival and betterment of the entire human r

  • by De_Boswachter ( 905895 ) on Monday December 23, 2019 @07:02AM (#59549590) Homepage
    The Army of the Climate Deniers is up early today in this thread. Owait, I forgot, it's already past noon in St. Petersburg.
    • Climate Deniers

      Pardon the pedantry, but is it so hard for people to keep "change" in "climate change denier" included?
      You cannot deny a climate; "climate denier" isn't shorthand, it's just wrong, and really dumb looking/sounding.

  • I think I've reached a tipping point here. I'm vacillating in a wildly chaotic way..
  • They start with rate of deforestation of the Amazon, which is entirely under the control of the Brazilian government. That's an easy one, go talk to them.

    But then they go off into a bunch of tangents and tie them all together into a neat package. Unless the Brazilian government does something today some farmer will chop down some more trees, which will cause less CO2 uptake, which will cause Greenland to melt, which will raise the sea level to nipple height on the Statue of Liberty. But on the positive s

    • which is entirely under the control of the Brazilian government. That's an easy one, go talk to them.
      How can fires that are out of control be under the control of some government?
      What about Australia, if stopping the fire is as simple as calling the Australian Government, please give me thier number, I take care of it right now. I wonder why you did not call Brazil or Australia if it so easy?

  • ...I'm getting dizzy. We've passed so many tipping points, so many points of no return. Just as well buy popcorn and enjoy the show. /s

    Seriously, if every article turns up the emotions to eleventy, it becomes hard to tell fake news and crap reporting from serious science. Worse, every environmental article rants about climate change, even when that has nothing at all to do with the article itself. Dead zones in the sea? Caused by climate change ^H^H^H^H^H^H agricultural runoff. Ocean acidification off the c

  • by binarybum ( 468664 ) on Monday December 23, 2019 @12:35PM (#59550620) Homepage

    I've done my part - signed up for a prime membership and plenty of recurring orders that I never check the price hikes on.

          Would be a shame to lose the Amazon. We all need to support Bezos during these challenging times.

  • by WindBourne ( 631190 ) on Monday December 23, 2019 @02:30PM (#59551112) Journal
    If Europe and China would quit importing beef and soybeans from Brazil, then within 1 year, Amazon deforestation would stop. These 2 groups account for more than 50% of all beef and soybean exports from Brazil.

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