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Earth

Wild Swings in Extreme Weather Are Rising (wired.com) 268

As the world warms, scientists say that abrupt shifts in weather patterns, like droughts followed by severe floods, are intensifying. From a report: From 2011 to 2016, California experienced five years of extreme drought, during which numerous high temperature records were broken. These hot, dry years were followed by the extremely wet winter of 2016-2017, when, from October to March, an average of 31 inches of rain fell across the state, the second highest winter rainfall on record. All that rain meant a bumper crop of grasses and other vegetation, which, as hot and dry conditions returned, likely contributed to a combustible mix of fuels that played a role in the severe fires that have swept California in the past two years. These wild swings from one weather extreme to another are symptomatic of a phenomenon, variously known as "climate whiplash" or "weather whiplash," that scientists say is likely to increase as the world warms.

The intensity of wildfires these days in places like California are a symptom of climate change, experts say, but the whiplash effect poses a different set of problems for humans and natural systems. Researchers project that by the end of this century, the frequency of these abrupt transitions between wet and dry will increase by 25 percent in Northern California and as much as double in Southern California if greenhouse gasses continue to increase. "There has been an assumption that the main thing we have to contend with climate change is increased temperatures, decreased snowpack, increased wildfire risk" on the West Coast, said Daniel Swain, a climate scientist at the University of California, Los Angeles. "Those things are still true, but there is this other dimension we will have to contend with -- the increased risk of extreme flood and drought, and rapid transitions between the two."

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Wild Swings in Extreme Weather Are Rising

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  • Here we go again (Score:5, Insightful)

    by OffTheLip ( 636691 ) on Thursday January 02, 2020 @07:34AM (#59578364)
    This ought to be a thoughtful, civil discussion.
    • So it should on a site which is ostensibly for nerds.

      Sadly this is slashdot

      • Sadder still, as partisan as the debate seems to devolve to here, it's more rational and fact-oriented than forums on Reddit and 4chan, and much more two-sided than cable news programs.

        All sides of a position should be afforded the light, since it's ability to desiccate feces helps the whole room smell better.

        • but not validation
          • There's a difference between admitting an idea exists and validating it.
            In general it's better to refute bad information than to try to censor it.
            • flat earth theories don't need to be censored in public, but should not be entertained in science classes. perhaps the biggest question is when to allow the speech but don't allow it to monetize.
        • All sides of a position should be afforded the light

          There are no "sides" here, in that there's no actual legitimate debate but rather the cultivated appearance of one, which isn't remotely the same thing.

      • This ought to be a thoughtful, civil discussion.

        There are real, identifiable flaws in the climate change position, but no one seems to want to step forward and address them directly.

        Climate change is now a political position, and it's literally impossible to get a real discussion on slashdot about anything political. It *always* devolves into name calling and downvoting - largely from one side.

        Debate used to be a high form of art, where one side couldn't use trivial gainsaying or logical fallacies to make their case. *Those* are the things that should be

        • by geekoid ( 135745 )

          "Is climate change real? No one knows, because one side keeps acting out like a bunch of children.
          yes, we do know, for a demonstrable fact. YOU are the problem because YOU keep spreading the idea that no on knows.
          Which is a science denier position regarding climate change..
          WE can literally prove it exist in any college science class. We can create falsifiable tests, as can any corporation.

          "Not so with climate change, it's all "the science is settled" and "no more time for debate","
          The science showing it is

        • This ought to be a thoughtful, civil discussion.

          There are real, identifiable flaws in the climate change position, but no one seems to want to step forward and address them directly.

          Except, of course, for the scientists themselves who give extensive error bounds and discussions of what is known, and how well we know it.

          Climate change is now a political position, and it's literally impossible to get a real discussion on slashdot about anything political. It *always* devolves into name calling and downvoting - largely from one side.

          True. And that side is the one that can be easily identified by their calling scientists either idiots or a conspiracy of frauds, without ever actually showing any knowledge of climate science.

          ...Is climate change real? No one knows, because one side keeps acting out like a bunch of children.

          No one... other than the scientists and the people who actually pay attention to the scientists.

          And nerds also don't seem to have a sense of history. Looking back we see the "smoking causes cancer" issue is an analogue to climate change, being a truth inconvenient to large companies. The tobacco companies fought tooth and nail over that one, but scientists calmly persisted for 40 years until everyone was convinced that it was correct

          Bingo! This time it's the companies that profit from fossil fuels who are funding

    • Re:Here we go again (Score:4, Interesting)

      by Canberra1 ( 3475749 ) on Thursday January 02, 2020 @08:36AM (#59578458)
      Wild swings in town planning on the take is also occurring. That is approved subdivisions in known flood, fire and earthquake zones. If rich enough, a neat 20,000 sq foot holiday retreat in former national parks that keep getting bits sold off for profit. One rule of thumb if its been burnt or flooded in the past 100 years chances are , it will happen again. Only the once in 100 year events are becoming once in 20 year events, so it seems. The tragedy is the dumb punters in a land ponzi scheme, building where one should not.
      • by Mashiki ( 184564 )

        Quiet you. Pointing out that cities are allowing housing and businesses to be built in flood plains, and flood zones is an inconvenient truth. Just like all those floods here in Canada the last few years, where the cities opened up to build in them. The once in 100 becoming 20 year events also has some really shitty things tied to it, like the march of environmentalists demanding flood control dams to be removed. One of the dams on the Thames River(Gordon Pittock Dam) here in Ontario, the environuts are

        • Re: (Score:2, Informative)

          by Layzej ( 1976930 )

          cities are allowing housing and businesses to be built in flood plains, and flood zones

          Climate change deniers are largely responsible for ensuring that municipalities ignore the changing threats imposed by global warming. For example, in North Carolina they encouraged legislation that banned the state from basing coastal policies on the latest scientific predictions [go.com] on sea level rise.

          The net result is that the state swoops in and socializes the costs of damages.

          • by Shotgun ( 30919 )

            The ban was on predictions more than 30 years out. There are no reliable predictions that far out, and most structures aren't designed with lifespans that long anyway.

            • by Layzej ( 1976930 )
              You've never heard of a 30 year old house? That is laughable. With respect to projected sea level rise, we know it won't be linear. It will continue to accelerate. [sealevelrise.org] Legislation required that only a linear projection could be considered.
          • by Mashiki ( 184564 )

            Climate change deniers are largely responsible for ensuring that municipalities ignore the changing threats imposed by global warming.

            Why was it the environmentalists that went out of their way to try and stop sea wall, and low basin draining in Florida for example. But let's look at the article in question, I didn't know democrats were "climate change deniers" for example...which is the basis in question of those actions. Hmm...as they say. The rest of the article kinda devolves from there, not really offering anything in the way of 'science' to prove that their premise is correct. Rounding it out, and looking over the last 7 years..

        • by jbengt ( 874751 )

          The once in 100 becoming 20 year events also has some really shitty things tied to it, like the march of environmentalists demanding flood control dams to be removed.

          Increased flooding that affects people has much more to do with building impermeable structures over large areas of what previously provided natural drainage and retention than either climate change or dam removal. In fact, flood control dams and levees have many times contributed to the problem, as they encourage construction in flood-prone

        • by geekoid ( 135745 )

          , like the march of environmentalists demanding flood control dams to be removed.

          some environmentalist.

          "everything down stream had mass flooding, and the flooding was so bad that bridges 8.5m(28ft) above normal river level were washed out repeatedly"
          maybe they shouldn't have built there to being with?

      • Look at the Hard Rock building collapse. I wonder if there is a rising industry of building with shoddy materials and techniques in these areas so then you can blame the flood for the damage, collect full insurance and rebuild.

        • I suspect it comes down to the notion that the folks responsible for the construction of buildings didn't live through hard times, so they don't have a scope of what could go wrong like their predecessors did.

          I suspect we'll see more of this as the boomers leave the work place and take all that experience and caution with them.

        • Its worth noting the reason the government sells flood insurance and not private insurers is private insurers long ago deemed housing in flood zones to not be insurable since the losses were so high.

          A government funded healthcare system is a bridge to far, but when rich people's water front property values are in trouble its time for us all to work together and share the load!

          • by DarkOx ( 621550 )

            private insurers long ago deemed housing in flood zones to not be insurable since the losses were so high.

            No they did no such thing. Rather government banned private flood insurance on the theory that the losses were likely to wipe out private insurers, which would mean they would fail to pay claimants.

            Private insurance does not need the insurance of anything 'banned' they have actuaries that can tell them its not in their interest to write a policy on a building in flood plane unless said policy specifically excludes compensation related to loss from flooding. They do this by the way, private home owners ins

            • by jbengt ( 874751 )

              . . . government banned private flood insurance . . .

              Private flood insurance is legal. It's usually not affordable in flood-prone areas and may not even be available.

      • There's disasters everywhere, you can build for them, you can prepare. We have to live somewhere.
    • This ought to be a thoughtful, civil discussion.

      You are correct. When faced with rapid changes in chemistry (which this is) solutions can become unstable. We have been seeing some strange instabilities in recent years. Last year we had a relatively cool bot not all that cold winter here in the Northeast of US, while way up north it was much warmer. This past summer, we were very often hotter than the places we often visit in Florida.

      At present, there is a Jet Stream huge dip and a sharp return north that is hammering the Midwest with winter weather, wh

      • When faced with rapid changes in chemistry (which this is)

        I like how you just throw bullshit up as if it is fact, without any evidence.

        All of the "chemistry" is the same year to year. We are all very, very curious find out what "chemistry" you think is changing, why, and why you consider this change to be "rapid".

        Your whole presumption is why rational debate on climate change has become impossible, because people have thrown real science out the window and are just operating on blind faith in specific asse

      • What is more, the instability eventually settles down to a new normal. The planet is adjusting at the moment.

        Unfortunately, no. We are not adjusting to a new normal. The climate is in a severe state of flux and will continue to be so for the foreseeable future. We are not facing "a new normal." We are simply at an intermediate stage towards something even more extreme.

  • by BlacKSacrificE ( 1089327 ) on Thursday January 02, 2020 @07:45AM (#59578374)

    A good percentage of my ENTIRE FUCKING COUNTRY [wa.gov.au] is on fire right now. We're going to have an entire thread full of republicans bashing democrats, but this is so much bigger than just the US, much less California.

    And the tragedy is the same inane arguments will go on, back and forth, and the world will continue to burn with no action. It's so fucking tiresome.

    • by Freischutz ( 4776131 ) on Thursday January 02, 2020 @08:03AM (#59578386)

      A good percentage of my ENTIRE FUCKING COUNTRY [wa.gov.au] is on fire right now. We're going to have an entire thread full of republicans bashing democrats, but this is so much bigger than just the US, much less California.

      And the tragedy is the same inane arguments will go on, back and forth, and the world will continue to burn with no action. It's so fucking tiresome.

      Breathe slowly and calm down. Donald Trump, the most intelligent being in the universe, has determined that it's all a Chinese hoax, your country is not on fire, what looks like smoke and flames outside of your window is an elaborate illusion staged by liberal crisis actors.

      • by Nidi62 ( 1525137 )

        A good percentage of my ENTIRE FUCKING COUNTRY [wa.gov.au] is on fire right now. We're going to have an entire thread full of republicans bashing democrats, but this is so much bigger than just the US, much less California.

        And the tragedy is the same inane arguments will go on, back and forth, and the world will continue to burn with no action. It's so fucking tiresome.

        Breathe slowly and calm down. Donald Trump, the most intelligent being in the universe, has determined that it's all a Chinese hoax, your country is not on fire, what looks like smoke and flames outside of your window is an elaborate illusion staged by liberal crisis actors.

        No, they just needed to do a better job raking the floor like Finland does.

        • by Freischutz ( 4776131 ) on Thursday January 02, 2020 @08:35AM (#59578456)

          A good percentage of my ENTIRE FUCKING COUNTRY [wa.gov.au] is on fire right now. We're going to have an entire thread full of republicans bashing democrats, but this is so much bigger than just the US, much less California.

          And the tragedy is the same inane arguments will go on, back and forth, and the world will continue to burn with no action. It's so fucking tiresome.

          Breathe slowly and calm down. Donald Trump, the most intelligent being in the universe, has determined that it's all a Chinese hoax, your country is not on fire, what looks like smoke and flames outside of your window is an elaborate illusion staged by liberal crisis actors.

          No, they just needed to do a better job raking the floor like Finland does.

          Oh, the Finns have graduated to more effective methods. The Finnish government launched a Roomba breeding and release project. Now wild Roombas abound in Finnish forest vacuuming up the flammable organic matter from the forest floor: https://www.reddit.com/r/pics/... [reddit.com]

          • by Nidi62 ( 1525137 )

            A good percentage of my ENTIRE FUCKING COUNTRY [wa.gov.au] is on fire right now. We're going to have an entire thread full of republicans bashing democrats, but this is so much bigger than just the US, much less California.

            And the tragedy is the same inane arguments will go on, back and forth, and the world will continue to burn with no action. It's so fucking tiresome.

            Breathe slowly and calm down. Donald Trump, the most intelligent being in the universe, has determined that it's all a Chinese hoax, your country is not on fire, what looks like smoke and flames outside of your window is an elaborate illusion staged by liberal crisis actors.

            No, they just needed to do a better job raking the floor like Finland does.

            Oh, the Finns have graduated to more effective methods. The Finnish government launched a Roomba breeding and release project. Now wild Roombas abound in Finnish forest vacuuming up the flammable organic matter from the forest floor:

            https://www.reddit.com/r/pics/... [reddit.com]

            That's great news. I wish we would do the same thing here in the US. I would love to return to the majestic sight of herds of wild Bissels running across the open plains again like in the 1800s before they were hunted into virtual extinction.

      • Comment removed based on user account deletion
      • Nah, he'll claim that the Aussies just don't manage their wildlands properly because they're too liberal so it's all their own fault their entire country is burning to the ground.
    • I looked at the map you linked to. Interesting. But I have to ask -- there's one fire in the northeast of the map, in the Bismark Sea, that looks like it is burning ocean. I zoomed in as tight as the map would let me go... no land. Is that a ship on fire? What gives?
      • by Nidi62 ( 1525137 )

        I looked at the map you linked to. Interesting. But I have to ask -- there's one fire in the northeast of the map, in the Bismark Sea, that looks like it is burning ocean. I zoomed in as tight as the map would let me go... no land. Is that a ship on fire? What gives?

        I think you just found Skull Island

    • by Z00L00K ( 682162 )

      Åndalsnes just had a temperature record of 18.6 degrees C for January.

      https://twitter.com/Meteorolog... [twitter.com]

    • by gweihir ( 88907 )

      A good percentage of my ENTIRE FUCKING COUNTRY [wa.gov.au] is on fire right now. We're going to have an entire thread full of republicans bashing democrats, but this is so much bigger than just the US, much less California.

      And the tragedy is the same inane arguments will go on, back and forth, and the world will continue to burn with no action. It's so fucking tiresome.

      Well, since your wise people selected a good and capable leader that is doing his absolute best to deal with this catastrophe, things should not be so bad!

    • That's because there are so many myopic so-called 'republicans' in my country ('so-called' because I'm old enough to remember when the Republican party was different, more focused on their core principles, even if you didn't agree with them, instead of just 'partisan politics', in which anything considered 'liberal' is rubber-stamped as 'bad' without any consideration whatsoever, and anyone who is not 'republican' is a 'lib-tard' and automatically dismissed as defective -- and to be fair, the way so many so
    • A good percentage of my ENTIRE FUCKING COUNTRY [wa.gov.au] is on fire right now.

      That's NORMAL. You're living in an inhospitable place.

  • ...before a bunch of people say that climate change is a lie and that this is totally normal.
    • by Rei ( 128717 )

      I'm just glad that the topic is getting more attention. A large minority of the sketches on this year's áramótaskaup (annual New Years parody show watched by most of Iceland) for example were on climate change. Here's three [youtube.com] (w/subtitles) - "How Dare You?" (Greta Thunberg as a horror movie) / "Our House is Burning" (children trying to convince their parents to get out of bed when their house catches fire) / "Next" (increasingly dire upcoming episodes on RÚV). Here's another [youtube.com], a solid parenting

    • Re: Just hopping in (Score:2, Informative)

      by javaman235 ( 461502 )

      You posted at 0430 us central time. A few hours before they roll their unemployed asses out of their beds at 0930 in the Bible Belt and open Slashdot to start a long day of propagating bullshit.

      • Or sorry, 0630

      • You posted at 0430 us central time. A few hours before they roll their unemployed asses out of their beds at 0930 in the Bible Belt and open Slashdot to start a long day of propagating bullshit.

        You people have weird fantasies.

        Your strongest political base is inner city unemployed.

        • I thought it was 90% of media (employed) and all the billionaires?!? can you please chose a story and stick with it?
      • by Mashiki ( 184564 )

        People in the bible belt aren't journalists. And journalists live in big cities for the most part, they're also the only ones in the booming US economy to be losing their jobs at a record pace.

  • So we need to be working on how to adapt.

    • So we need to be working on how to adapt.

      Should we encourage the growth of webbed hands and feet, maybe gills, or increase our asbestos intake?

      • I have more faith in tech. Nice glib response though.

      • The Dutch don't have those features, and a significant portion of their country is below sea level...
        • by Rei ( 128717 )

          They're also the 16th population-densest country on Earth - 17,3 million people in a country less than 30% larger than the US state of Maryland. Exactly how much are you willing to pay per capita in less densely populated areas?

          Note that the Netherlands eventually retreating [www.vn.nl] against the onslaught of rising sea levels and greater flood heights is a possibility in the cards over the next century. They face the same "increasingly impractical" challenges of living in an ever-deeper hole relative to the surroun

          • They're also the 16th population-densest country on Earth - 17,3 million people in a country less than 30% larger than the US state of Maryland. Exactly how much are you willing to pay per capita in less densely populated areas?

            Thus their costs are incredibly poor in return! Building a dike to protect 17 million people, in a tiny area, has a MUCH higher per-person cost than building the same dike to protect a lot more land AND protect more people. If it's affordable for the Dutch, it should be fine elsewhere.

            Bigger question, though - how much sea-rise will we actually see? Because, at least in the most populous city in the US, sea level rise has been a constant 3mm/year for the last 170 years [noaa.gov]. I'm pretty sure we can figure out

            • by Rei ( 128717 )

              Thus their costs are incredibly poor in return! Building a dike to protect 17 million people, in a tiny area, has a MUCH higher per-person cost than building the same dike to protect a lot more land AND protect more people.

              ..... huh?

              More density = less distance per dike per person. Pretty much linearly.

              Is your view that there's a greater-than-inverse linear relationship between dike cost per unit distance and population, to overcome this? Why? Dikes are built on swamps / floodplains / ocean being reclai

              • You don't get it. Put a dike along a beach, you protect everyone behind the beach. It's not bounded by the distance INLAND from the dike. And sea level change is still linear. So unless you have a massive up-swing in the next decade, the "water-world" scenarios are simply false.
    • by Zontar The Mindless ( 9002 ) <.moc.liamg. .ta. .ofni.hsifcitsalp.> on Thursday January 02, 2020 @08:32AM (#59578448) Homepage

      Or we could work on ways to stop changing it quite so quickly and radically, but that's apparently too complicated for some folks to grasp.

      Makes me think of the joke about the fellow who visits the doctor, complaining, "It hurts when I do *this*," and doesn't want to believe Doc's response to the effect that he should simply stop doing *that*.

      • You go ahead and tell the second and third world that are still coming online how to do it. Try living in reality where you do both.

        • The term "lead by example" comes to mind, but I guess we're too busy developing drones to deliver Aunty Katherine's cat meme mugs in 24 hours and installing exploitable "security" cameras into our homes to focus on pesky things like carbon sequestration, cleaner energy sources, and either a good way to replace, or recycle, plastics.

          Yes, the second and third world are going to be belching their shit out everywhere, but it's hard to offer an alternative when the first world hasn't even gotten their shit toget

      • Or we could work on ways to stop changing it quite so quickly and radically, but that's apparently too complicated for some folks to grasp.

        We could - we could work on ways to sequester carbon, and we could go full nuclear - but that doesn't feel nearly as good as name calling and moral posturing.

      • For the average person, whose eyes glaze over when anything more complicated than basic arithmetic is discussed let alone anything science-y, if it's anything that'll inconvenience them or make them spend more money every month, they'll complain loud and long about it. Your average corporation will complain long and loud if it digs into their profits, because they aren't thinking past the next fiscal quarter. Politicians will only think about how it affects their chances of re-election.
        When it starts affec
    • by Rei ( 128717 )

      I suggest that we focus, as a species, on evolving fireproof skin and smoke-resistant lungs.

      A swim bladder might be nice as well.

    • We'll be encouraged to adapt in any way that doesn't disrupt global capital. Relocate and lower your expectations, peons.
  • Unfalsifiable (Score:2, Insightful)

    by Kohath ( 38547 )

    Is there even a metric for "wild swings" that can be applied historically? Can it really be aggregated to different areas?

    California has not had "wild swings" in the weather, despite the summary claims. Years of drought is actually steady weather, not "swings". And when it ended, no extreme floods.

    • That's what I am thinking, too.... This year, the fire season was pretty minimal, especially in Southern California. Rain has been pretty normal, too - if you look at the historical record beyond the last 10 years, that is...
    • by Shotgun ( 30919 )

      My father pointed out an interesting fact to me in the 80's. When watching the weather on the evening news, they'd always have the records high and lows for that day. He noticed that the two always seemed to be within a five year time span.

  • Then I guess we'd better get hot (pun intended), go full nuclear and figure out how to sequester carbon at scale.

    Or we could preen and hector. I guess that's more fun.

  • I really hate how the 2017 Tubbs (Santa Rosa area) fire keeps getting blamed on global warming. Why? Because nearly the exact same fire happened in 1964. If you look at an overlay map of the two fires they are nearly identical. The only difference between the two fires is that nobody really lived in the burned areas. If you want to believe that global warming/climate change/extreme weather exists, fine. But this fire had nothing to do with any of those things.
  • Unlike most things in life where you can choose to be with one collective over other, it's unfortunate that with this issue that people who consider climate change non-addressable can't choose to stay on one planet, and those who consider it addressable on another.

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