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Earth United States Politics Science

Bernie Sanders Has an Audacious -- and Hugely Expensive -- Climate Plan (technologyreview.com) 586

Senator Bernie Sanders, the front-runner for the Democratic nomination in this year's presidential election, has put forth the most audacious climate plan among the contenders. But there are doubts about the political and economic feasibility of his sweeping vision, as well as the wisdom of some of his particular technical proposals. From a report: Notably, the plan restricts tools that could help rapidly cut greenhouse-gas emissions, including nuclear power and technologies that can capture carbon dioxide. Sanders wants to pump more than $16 trillion into a version of the Green New Deal that would eliminate emissions from the US power sector, as well as all ground transportation, within a decade. To pull it off, he wants the government to play a much larger role in the electricity sector. His plan would direct new or expanded federal agencies to build nearly $2.5 trillion worth of wind, solar, geothermal, and energy storage projects.

The plan would also force major changes on the fossil-fuel sector, including ending federal subsidies, mountaintop-removal coal mining, and the import and export of fossil fuels. He'd also direct federal agencies to investigate whether companies broke the law in covering up their role in climate change, or owe damages for the destruction they cause. In addition, Sanders wants to invest more than $2 trillion to help families and small businesses improve the energy efficiency of their homes, buildings, and operations; and more than $1 trillion to retrofit or construct bridges, roads, water systems, and coastal protections in ways that will stand up to harsher climate conditions. He says the plan will create 20 million jobs, while offering wage guarantees, job training, and other assistance to displaced energy workers. His broader goals for the Green New Deal go beyond climate and clean energy as well, boosting funding for affordable housing and rural economic development, and enhancing protections for civil rights, environmental justice, and labor.

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Bernie Sanders Has an Audacious -- and Hugely Expensive -- Climate Plan

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  • by magarity ( 164372 ) on Friday February 28, 2020 @12:56PM (#59778230)

    ...if Bernie were in the WH instead? Not many of his fellow congresscritters are this far out there.

  • I don't get it. How many multi-trillion dollar plans can you announce, then hand-wave away the costs from with "the rich will pay for it"? Seriously, what the fuck is this shit? If he just said "OK, we'll focus on getting health care under control, and the rich will pay for that" then fine. That's cool, a single payer system wouldn't cost the government much more than we pay now.

    But all this other shit? What kind of a rube do you have to be to buy that bullshit? I for one can't wait until he pisses off the

    • by virtualXTC ( 609488 ) on Friday February 28, 2020 @12:58PM (#59778262) Homepage
      I think you forget that we elected someone who said "Mexico will pay for the wall".
      • Re: (Score:2, Informative)

        by nwaack ( 3482871 )
        "The wall" won't bankrupt the entire country, whereas Bernie's plans (if they can even be called that) would do just that...and very quickly. It's almost as if someone said, "no one can possibly be a worse president than Donald Trump" and Bernie said, "hold my beer."
      • And China tarrifs.

      • Probably (Score:5, Insightful)

        by Xenographic ( 557057 ) on Friday February 28, 2020 @01:49PM (#59778638) Journal

        It's amazing to me how you guys can call him a con man and grifter and whatnot, but not realize that he hoodwinked you with the old trick of "talking past the sale."

        Meanwhile he used military funds to build a wall instead of blowing up more of Iran or something.

        Speaking of which, where is that WWIII you guys were talking about?

      • He did get Mexico to make a wall of troops [reuters.com], which seems to be quite effective [bbc.com] in cutting illegal immigration.
    • by JeffSh ( 71237 ) <jeffslashdot.m0m0@org> on Friday February 28, 2020 @01:03PM (#59778296)

      left out in your shit analysis, like most people, is the timeframe of the spend. its not just "2.5 trillion? where will we get the money!" it is easily achievable when you spread it over a number of years, and necessary when you compare it to the cost of no action.

      if you think 2.5 trillion is a lot of money, wait until the impacts of doing nothing come to bear. or will we just ignore those costs too? i think that's the current plan, let the poor people and those without power suffer.

      • Re: (Score:3, Insightful)

        I would put climate change at the #2 priority after health care. If he narrowly focused on those two I'd be cool. He _definitely_ doesn't. A bunch of multi-trillion dollar plans spread out over a decade still cost trillions we don't have, Bernie Bro.
        • Climate change is health issue
        • Before the SC debate, bernie released a plan that was priced out to cost 50 trillion $ over 10 years. Keep in mind current tax revenue is 3.5trillion. So if bernie got his pipe dream plan through, he would have to at least Double your taxes. At best estimates they would only get like 800 billion outta the rich which means still need 4.2trillion in tax $ to pay for his plan.
          • by JeffSh ( 71237 )

            doubling my taxes halves (and more) my health insurance bill.

            your analysis is short sighted.

      • by twocows ( 1216842 ) on Friday February 28, 2020 @02:08PM (#59778782)
        The GDP of the United States is about $20 trillion. In a lump sum, $2 trillion is one tenth of that. That is a lot of money no matter how you look at it. So you want to spread it out over a number of years. How many years? Even 1% of our GDP would be a huge sum, and that'd be spreading it out over 20 years. How do you reclaim that? How do you reclaim that for multiple programs with similar costs?

        I like Bernie, I think he's got his heart in the right place and his eyes on the right issues, and having both of those features is in my opinion unique to him as a candidate. But I also think he's got his head in the clouds. His plans to deal with the very real problems that we really do need to address are often not realistic at best and would have significant negative repercussions at worst. He needs to take a real look at his plans and do two things: first, triage them and scale them back so the costs are realistic, and second, come up with realistic plans to pay for them including implementation details. A realistic plan to pay for any one of these plans would need to combine several different strategies because they're insanely expensive. You need a plan to grow the economy so that the source of your taxes doesn't evaporate when you try to raise them.

        And raising taxes comes with its own set of problems. It doesn't just hurt spending as people tighten their purse strings to make up for the loss in available money, it also hurts investment as people have less money available to take risks with. There's (almost) no such thing as money that just "sits around," even if it's in a bank it's being invested somewhere, providing starting money for businesses taking new chances. Less investment means fewer chances get taken as people consolidate into less risky assets. So maybe that medical R&D company that would have cured cancer cut the program responsible because they didn't have space in their budget to take the risk on it. This is putting aside all the direct problems with taxing the rich (e.g. that they'll use every means at their disposal to try and get around it, some of which are very difficult to mitigate or even detect).

        So yeah, I like that Bernie actually understands the problems people deal with, and I like that he gives a shit enough to want to fix them. That puts him better than probably like 98% of US politicians period. But he's an extreme idealist who either lacks a fundamental understanding of macro-economics or does understand the shortcomings of his plans and thinks it's an implementation detail he can worry about later on. And maybe it is, but considering the numbers he's talking about here, something more substantial then "we'll tax the rich and pay it off over a number of years" would go a long way. I don't want my grandchildren suffering under a slump economy paying heavy taxes for programs from 70 years ago while Russia and China rocket ahead any more than I want to see Florida underwater from climate change or people paying thousands of dollars for minor medical treatment.

        With all that said, Bernie's still my favorite of the declared candidates, though I usually vote Libertarian in the end (I don't identify as a Libertarian, they're just closest to where I'm at).
        • The GDP of the United States is about $20 trillion. In a lump sum, $2 trillion is one tenth of that. That is a lot of money no matter how you look at it. So you want to spread it out over a number of years. How many years? Even 1% of our GDP would be a huge sum, and that'd be spreading it out over 20 years. How do you reclaim that? How do you reclaim that for multiple programs with similar costs?

          In 1933, the GDP was $57 billion. The original New Deal cost $41.7 billion in 1933 dollars. How do you reclaim it? By massively increasing the GDP through double-digit percent increases over the following four years.

        • "How do you reclaim that?"

          Improved infrastructure, reduced climate impacts and lower energy costs (most green energy has high upfront cost, but lower maintenance costs).

          Business reporters regularly say that these days there are an excess of money looking for investments, but a lot of going to things to don't actually build things, like real estate speculation, derivatives, etc. There is no shortage of money for investment.

    • by Cylix ( 55374 )

      He already said the green new deal is the right track and really he raised AoC another one hundred trillion on the crazy wager.

      The DNC might be crooked, but I don't believe they are crazy enough to let him get into the primaries.

      If they have any sense they will start to cleanse the far left from their platform and get back to a semblance of what appeals to the non-fringe.

      I do have to wonder how many craze statements he can make before even the pro-bernies start asking themselves if they made the right choic

    • by timeOday ( 582209 ) on Friday February 28, 2020 @01:19PM (#59778420)
      "America has spent $6.4 trillion on wars in the Middle East and Asia since 2001, a new study says"

      https://www.cnbc.com/2019/11/2... [cnbc.com]

      Nobody asked where it would come from.

    • by kfh227 ( 1219898 ) on Friday February 28, 2020 @01:24PM (#59778450)

      Frankly, when it comes to climate change, it will cost us even more later if we do nothing now. This has to get fixed and twiddling our thumbs pretending it's not there is not going to work.

      If you think $2 trillion is alot, I suggest you go look at the national debt. It's not that much and frankly, Trump will have increased the national debt by more than $2 trillion in his 4 disastrous years.

      The U.S. government's public debt is now more than $22 trillion — the highest it has ever been. The Treasury Department data comes as tax revenue has fallen and federal spending continues to rise. The new debt level reflects a rise of more than $2 trillion from the day President Trump took office in 2017.

      Frankly, if we can have hte wealthy pay off the things you mention and use debt to fund climate change issues it will just be business as usual. I frankly would rather tax the ultra wealthy. I don't think Bloomberg will miss $10 billion if you took it away from him.

      • $22T also happens to be the non-government surplus to the penny.

      • by fahrbot-bot ( 874524 ) on Friday February 28, 2020 @02:24PM (#59778868)

        Frankly, when it comes to climate change, it will cost us even more later if we do nothing now. This has to get fixed and twiddling our thumbs pretending it's not there is not going to work.

        Probably true, but the old folks in Congress don't really care about "later" because (a) it doesn't help them get re-elected and (b) they'll probably be dead by then. In addition, their constituents seem fine with their Representatives twiddling their thumbs, 'cause it means they won't have to do anything and also (b).

    • by Comboman ( 895500 ) on Friday February 28, 2020 @01:38PM (#59778556)
      The 2008 bailouts cost half a trillion dollars to line the pockets of Wall street bankers. The Iraq War cost $2.5 trillion to find no weapons of mass destruction, destabilize the entire middle east, and kill thousands on both sides. The Green New Deal will create long-term infrastructure, jobs and lower energy costs in addition to saving the planet. Sounds like money well spent (for a change).
  • Time (Score:5, Insightful)

    by fyngyrz ( 762201 ) on Friday February 28, 2020 @12:57PM (#59778252) Homepage Journal

    The main (real) problem with building out nuclear capacity is that such construction is slow; the plants are complex, they are subject to significant progress retardation from regulation and (not inappropriate) inspection, and there are always NIMBYs fighting siting issues and further delaying progress.

    The problem with addressing climate change effectively by changing power sources is that it most likely needs to be done in the short term, that is, way sooner than any form at all of later, or remediation will fall much further short of actually doing what needs to be done.

    I'm all for nuclear power, fission or (hopefully someday) fusion, but as a "we need to fix this now" solution, it's really not in the running.

    Sanders is focused on the right issues, the ones that can work. However, getting both houses of congress on board... that's entirely another matter.

    • Re: (Score:2, Insightful)

      He's focused on like 10 different expensive issues. I would agree that climate is #2 after health care, but free college? child care? green new deal? housing?canceling existing medical debt? free everything US citizens get for illegals? Seriously? What the FUCK? It boggles the mind that someone could be this stupid.

      And to pay for it? *hand-waves* the rich. With a, fucking LOL, 'wealth tax' (unconstitutional wealth confiscation that is not an income tax or even a tax on any other transaction, and which requi

    • Re:Time (Score:4, Insightful)

      by GregMmm ( 5115215 ) on Friday February 28, 2020 @01:23PM (#59778438)

      Incorrect on the speed. 100%. Nuclear power could easily be quick. The process needs to change. This is what a LEADER should do. If he is really interested in "saving the planet" then fix the process! The reason it takes so long, and is so expensive is opponents of nuclear power made it that way. If you can't stop someone from making a nuclear power plant, then make it take so dang long and make it so dang expensive to build they won't.

      Also, NEVER claim we have to do something only because we don't have the time. (Ok, almost never, like the asteroid that will for sure smash into the earth) How many bad choices are made because we have to get it done NOW?

      But I digress. Who the hell in politics knows anything about how to be efficient? Or figure out how to pay for something. Or has ever worked a job? (politics doesn't count)

    • I agree that building nuclear is extremely slow but the other technologies also seem far to slow for Sander's timeline.

      We would need to more than double the production of cars, and transfer all of that to electric. We need a vast amount of high speed rail, and California's recent experience doesn't make a 10 year timescale seem possible.

      Solar cells - maybe 20X current world production. Similar for windmills.

      Just buying right of way for rail and power lines will take years - with endless "environmental" qu

    • Re:Time (Score:4, Insightful)

      by Rick Schumann ( 4662797 ) on Friday February 28, 2020 @11:06PM (#59780806) Journal
      Why is everyone stuck on the idea that the only way to build a nuclear power generator is for it to be a massive building taking decade(s) and billions to build and it has to be massively complex to the point of being unprofitable to operate? None of those things are true anymore, they can build small, almost portable reactors now. There's also more designs than just the high pressure water types that will 'melt down' if something goes wrong. This isn't 1950 anymore there are newer and better designs they just have to let them build them!
      Nuclear power is necessary and you all have to get over your oogabooga irrational fear of them.
  • Bernie's plan is nothing more than tax everyone you don't like and spend on everything you do like... He doesn't have any actual "plan", just a dream to tax all the companies and individuals he views as evil, and then to spend carelessly on everything he thinks could be beneficial. No actual planning has gone into any of it.

    • by darthsilun ( 3993753 ) on Friday February 28, 2020 @01:05PM (#59778308)
      What are you smoking? Republicans have doubled down on Tax and Spend and their Glorious Leader says it's working great.

      Have you looked at what the National Debt has done since Trump took office?

      And just ask anyone in the 99% what has happened to their taxes since Trump cut taxes for the 1%.

      No, don't spout Breitbart and Faux News "facts." Nobody believes that crap.
      • Re: (Score:3, Insightful)

        I wonder if people realize you can pick both in terms of hating Trump and the hypocritical Republicans and hating Bernie.
      • by Cylix ( 55374 )

        You can't even pay for Bernies plans if you take away all of the money from ultra wealthy.

        Look at the loose economics of what he is proposing you nutter.

      • I'm in the 99%, and my taxes went down.

        More accurately I was in the lower 80% and my taxes went down about 10%. I have since retired, so further comparisons are not going to be valid.

        It's your numbers that are invalid. The IRS approved mine.

      • by onyxruby ( 118189 ) <onyxruby AT comcast DOT net> on Friday February 28, 2020 @02:19PM (#59778844)

        Calm down there cowboy, how about the hard left New York Times?

        https://www.nytimes.com/2019/0... [nytimes.com]

        "Ever since President Trump signed the Republican-sponsored tax bill in December 2017, independent analyses have consistently found that a large majority of Americans would owe less because of the law. Preliminary data based on tax filings has shown the same."

        "Experts are divided on whether the tax law was a good idea. But there is little disagreement on this core point: Most people got a tax cut. The Tax Policy Center estimates that 65 percent of people paid less under the law and that just 6 percent paid more. (The rest saw little change to their taxes.) Other analyses reached similar conclusions."

        I know, I know, never let the facts get in the way of your narrative. Back to your drug induced delusions....

  • Doing nothing would be more costly.
    Either way, someone is going to pay for it. The industry and the rich don't want the climate disaster. They are not stupid. They just don't want to pay for its prevention.

  • by Shaitan ( 22585 ) on Friday February 28, 2020 @01:04PM (#59778298)

    It is impossible to calculate cost because much of what he proposes will reclaim funds. Much like this healthcare plan, you can't put a real number on it until you see how much fat they are able to cut from healthcare costs where cost estimates of the plan more or less assume none he assumes reduction of cost to be comparable with other western nations.

    This will result in sweeping infrastructure update at the same time and most of the funds will go into the US economy but disproportionately to California so the key here is going to be making sure he doesn't restore the tax deduction for state income tax paid alongside rolling back any cuts. Not that I'd suggest highlighting that until after winning the election since these are populous states who had enjoyed diverting income tax funds from the federal government to their state level programs.

    We desperately need that infrastructure update. This is the united states, we should be leading the world but we had built excellent infrastructure that lasted quite a while back and have neglected it limping along and skimping for decades. Now the bills are finally coming due.

  • When you need to borrow 10 bucks from your Uncle Sam, you ask him to borrow a 20, and accept when the 10 dollar loan is 'his' idea.

  • This is the socialist who praises Castro and criticizes Israel. Florida's large Cuban and Jewish populations will either vote Republican or stay home.

    This is the candidate who openly says he will ban fracking. Good luck with that messaging in PA.

    I'll admit -- he's one of the most honest presidential candidates I've seen. Unfortunately for him, honesty, though an admirable trait, doesn't win elections.

    I've never seen more of a circular firing squad than the shit show the Democrats having been putting on t

    • by Cylix ( 55374 )

      I wouldn't say honest...

      This is the guy who chastises everyone for riding in first class and in the same a week a picture surfaces of him sitting in first class with an oh shit look on his face.

      Everything about his proposals is dishonest because there are no facts behind it. He is a soap box preacher saying things to the crowd.

  • by WillAffleckUW ( 858324 ) on Friday February 28, 2020 @01:11PM (#59778348) Homepage Journal

    Look, right now you are in a system where fossil fuels get an effective 90 percent subsidy.

    You're paying too much for too little, and most of it is foreign backed.

    Bernie would invest in American renewables nationwide, dropping the cost of electricity and heating dramatically.

    Time to wake up and smell the fact it's 2020, not 1950.

    • Look, right now you are in a system where fossil fuels get an effective 90 percent subsidy.

      What "subsidies" for fossil fuels amount to "90 percent"? Specifically. With numbers.

      I think this is utter nonsense.

  • by Opportunist ( 166417 ) on Friday February 28, 2020 @01:11PM (#59778354)

    Remember the Moonshot? It created a lot of jobs and gave the economy and the population a boost in income. Not to mention that it meant that the US were the leading technological country of the planet for decades to come. And this time it could actually even have a use other than a dick-measuring contest with some rival.

    Considering that this is going to be technology that everyone on the planet will want, the US could finally take the technology lead again, backed by international patents that ensure that they decide who can produce competitively. Using the UN to push stricter environmental standards, US corporations could well be the only ones who can keep them without breaking their back and get back the leading role in production too. International pressure to adopt those standards would be pretty high, so you can't simply ignore it even if you're a dictatorship that doesn't give a fuck about poisoning their population.

    And the left can't even complain this time because their lord and saviour had the idea!

  • Comment removed (Score:3, Informative)

    by account_deleted ( 4530225 ) on Friday February 28, 2020 @01:13PM (#59778370)
    Comment removed based on user account deletion
  • by transporter_ii ( 986545 ) on Friday February 28, 2020 @01:19PM (#59778418) Homepage

    Cost of the Middle East wars (including future medical costs) = 6 Trillion. The same amount of money would have bought 200,000,000 million made-in-America Tesla Model 3s.

    Funny, it's OK to murder brown people with taxpayer money, but buying everyone an electric vehicle and telling the Middle East to F' off, that socialism. Not just socialism, it's booga booga socialism.

    / There's always money for war.

    • Re: (Score:3, Informative)

      by Train0987 ( 1059246 )

      So the total cost of all of the Middle East wars being waged for the past 20 years amounts to little more than HALF what this single Bernie plan would cost, and he still has a dozen other $10 trillion dollar plans?

      And you think that's a persuasive argument FOR Bernie?

      You folks crack me up. Every. Time!

  • by Togden ( 4914473 ) on Friday February 28, 2020 @01:25PM (#59778460)
    All climate change plans that actually work are "expensive". But that's the wrong way to think about it, what's actually happened is that pollution is expensive and we've not forced polluters to deal with those costs. So now we've got the pollution and a whole bunch of people who want to continue to not pay for the costs it creates or has created.
  • The main problem (Score:4, Insightful)

    by fred6666 ( 4718031 ) on Friday February 28, 2020 @01:34PM (#59778522)

    other than the cost, the main problem of this plan is that it is centrally planned. It would be a lot more efficient to just tax carbon (or use a cap and trade scheme) and let the market decide whether it's worth it or not to continue to run coal power plants. My bet is that all coal power plants would shut down given a high enough tax to address the climate change problem.

  • by ElitistWhiner ( 79961 ) on Friday February 28, 2020 @01:44PM (#59778604) Journal

    Hugely audacious solutions.

    Even critics have acknowledged that doing it NOW is orders of magnitude cheaper than doing nothing and spending what it will cost later.

  • by stevez67 ( 2374822 ) on Friday February 28, 2020 @01:53PM (#59778664)

    Like every president, including Trump, he would have policies and send legislation to the hill. Which the hill would promptly ignore. Doesn't really matter who is in the White House, their priorities and policies do not translate into legislation without 51 votes in the Senate. There aren't 51 votes in the Senate for much of anything.

  • Nuclear power (Score:4, Insightful)

    by stikves ( 127823 ) on Friday February 28, 2020 @02:07PM (#59778772) Homepage

    US has made two big mistakes on nuclear power, which still is the safest and cleanest method we know of energy production:

    1 - We focused on weapon making capability, instead of safer alternatives (like so called "molten salt" reactors: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/... [wikipedia.org] )

    2 - We let the public hysteria run rampant, even though there was no actual long term risk (Chernobyl is no teeming with life: https://www.theguardian.com/tr... [theguardian.com])

    In mortality rates (US), nuclear is safer than hyrdo, wind, or solar:
    https://www.forbes.com/sites/j... [forbes.com]
    (It looks like more people fall of rooftops, than dying the Fukishima nuclear plant).

    We need to change the "perception" of nuclear to something actually clean and safe (as it is). Otherwise we'll we wasting time and resources on otherwise not ready technologies.

  • by Carcass666 ( 539381 ) on Friday February 28, 2020 @07:04PM (#59780272)

    Or... it is a tale told by an idiot, full of sound and fury, signifying nothing. Not a Trump fan, but if Sanders gets the nod the attack ads will practically write themselves. Almost anybody who doesn't live next to a major body of water is either not going to vote, or hold their nose and vote for Trump.

    If Sanders were to get elected, there is no way 90% of this, especially the energy sector stuff, gets enacted in the US. Even if both houses of congress flip, between Senate filibuster rules and red state dems, stuff like the transfer of energy sector production to the federal government isn't going to happen. What is more likely to happen is utter gridlock, and the environmental problems will only worsen.

    As far as "but there's jobs" argument, if I'm reading TFS correctly, we'll spend $16 trillion to get 20 million jobs. If my pre-beer math is correct, that's $800k we'll be spending per job. There are other benefits to be costed out, like lower spending because people aren't breathing fumes/particulates, maybe lower military costs because we'll be less invested in securing oil drilling/transport in hostile parts of the world, but those seem difficult to predict objectively. There might be some additional money coming in from lawsuits, assuming Sanders can get the judiciary to play along, which seems like a stretch with the Supreme Court being what it is.

    Still think the best thing here is to let things play out, and have humanity end itself before it can infect the rest of the cosmos...

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