Modern Meteorology Was Born 60 Years Ago Today (arstechnica.com) 19
"Sixty years ago on this date, April 1, a Thor-Able rocket launched a small satellite weighing 122.5kg into an orbit about 650km above the Earth's surface," writes Ars Technica's Eric Berger. "Effectively, this launch from Florida's Cape Canaveral Air Force Station marked the beginning of the era of modern weather forecasting." From the report: Designed by the Radio Corporation of America and put into space by NASA, the Television InfraRed Observation Satellite, or TIROS-1, was the nation's first weather satellite. During its 78 days of operation, TIROS-1 successfully monitored Earth's cloud cover and weather patterns from space. This was a potent moment for the field of meteorology. For the first time, scientists were able to combine space-based observations with physical models of the atmosphere that were just beginning to be run on supercomputers.
After World War II, mathematician John von Neumann led development of a computer to crunch through a set of equations put together by Jule Charney and other scientists. By the mid-1950s, Charney's group began to produce numerical forecasts on a regular basis. All of a sudden, meteorologists had two incredibly useful tools at their hands. Of course, it would take time for more powerful computers to produce higher-resolution forecasts, and the sensor technology launched on satellites would require decades to improve to the point where spacecraft could collect data for temperature, moisture, and other environmental variables at various levels in the atmosphere. But by around 1980, the tools of satellite observations and numerical models that could process that data started to mature. Scientists had global satellite coverage, 24 hours a day, and forecasts began to improve dramatically. Today, the fifth day of a five-day forecast on the app on your phone is about as accurate as the next day's forecast was in 1980.
After World War II, mathematician John von Neumann led development of a computer to crunch through a set of equations put together by Jule Charney and other scientists. By the mid-1950s, Charney's group began to produce numerical forecasts on a regular basis. All of a sudden, meteorologists had two incredibly useful tools at their hands. Of course, it would take time for more powerful computers to produce higher-resolution forecasts, and the sensor technology launched on satellites would require decades to improve to the point where spacecraft could collect data for temperature, moisture, and other environmental variables at various levels in the atmosphere. But by around 1980, the tools of satellite observations and numerical models that could process that data started to mature. Scientists had global satellite coverage, 24 hours a day, and forecasts began to improve dramatically. Today, the fifth day of a five-day forecast on the app on your phone is about as accurate as the next day's forecast was in 1980.
Emergent Behavior... it's magic (Score:1)
Today, the fifth day of a five-day forecast on the app on your phone is about as accurate as the next day's forecast was in 1980.
So, 60 days out shouldn't be a problem, for a deterministic system, right?
Ah, "about as accurate". Never mind.
Re:Emergent Behavior... it's magic (Score:5, Funny)
Re:Emergent Behavior... it's magic (Score:4, Informative)
So, 60 days out shouldn't be a problem, for a deterministic system, right?
Who said weather was deterministic?
Have you ever heard of the Butterfly Effect [wikipedia.org]?
Weather is the classic example of a chaotic system.
Re: (Score:1)
From some viewpoints, everything is deterministic, including chaotic systems.
And yes, of course I have heard of it.
Re:Emergent Behavior... it's magic (Score:4, Informative)
If some entity (the demon) knows the place and the impulse of every particle in the Universe at a certain time, it can correctly predict the future.
Heisenberg's uncertainity principle threw a wrench into that by stating, that it impossible in general to exactly know both the place and the impulse of any particle for any given time.
Re: (Score:2)
Yes, and who better to address a Demon issue than a theist like Heisenberg. ;)
Couldn't resist the meta.
So, I think we can fairly say there is no "the future" to know, only degrees of precision of modeling, which also resolves some free will versus determinism dilemmas.
Re:Emergent Behavior... it's magic (Score:4, Informative)
It's been estimated that if you took the pressure, temperature, and humidity of every cubic foot of air, you could predict maybe 30 days out, if you had the computing horsepower, which you don't.
It was computer weather prediction that lead to the discovery of chaos theory and the butterfly effect. They ran weather simulations, than ran them the next day witb the exact same saved input, and got...wildly different answers.
Turns out when saving their input they chopped off the low bits. Up until that point, everyone thought the subtle differences in position and other values got swallowed up in the huge mass of bouncing particles. In fact the opposite happens. Minute differences multiply to more and more particles, until different tiny eddies and whatnot form, expanding larger and larger to create completely different weather a few days down the road.
The buttefly effect is much worse than you imagine. Any deviation in angle or speed at all by one molecule inevitably leads to this.
Re: (Score:2)
Yes, the difference between "of incalculable cause" and "of unknowable cause" seemed of interest here.
Re: (Score:2)
Which also has the corollary that every single time travel story you've ever read is crap (insert joke here). Any non-trivial time jump means displaced air which means different weather which means changed behavior which means different copulations which means a fully different set of people in the future.
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And then, multiply by Multiverse.
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Slow night (Score:1)
I'll emerge this too. [youtube.com]
first picture (Score:5, Interesting)
Marvel at the first picture from earth taken by TIROS-1;
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/... [wikipedia.org]
Re:first picture (Score:4, Interesting)
That's great! But try this couple as well:
http://rammb.cira.colostate.ed... [colostate.edu]
https://tinyurl.com/vp3gblj [tinyurl.com]
Enjoy!
Re: (Score:2)
Lou Grant in Mary Tyler Moore show had a picture of two bowling balls on his wall behind his desk. It was the famous National Geographic poster of the moon...and the far side of the moon, which had recently been fully and well-photographed.
New bowling ball shots are cool. Witness the astounding swirls of Jupiter from close not too long ago, either.
Re: (Score:1)
One disadvantage since then (Score:2)