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Oil Plunges Below Zero for First Time With May Contract Ending (bloomberg.com) 308

Oil futures collapsed to below zero for the first time ever as the deepening economic turmoil caused by the coronavirus crisis left traders desperate to avoid taking delivery of physical crude. From a report: In an unprecedented day of trading, the price for the May contracts wiped out all value, breaking every low for oil prices since 1946. The exchange where WTI futures trade said the contract would be allowed to price below zero. The extreme move showed just how oversupplied the U.S. oil market has become with industrial and economic activity grinding to a halt as governments around the globe extend shutdowns due to the swift spread of the coronavirus. An unprecedented output deal by OPEC and allied members a week ago to curb supply is proving too little too late in the face a one-third collapse in global demand. On Monday, a technical oddity exacerbated the price plunge as traders fled the May futures contract ahead of its expiration tomorrow. The following month's contract fell 12% to $22.05 a barrel, making the spread between the two months blow out more than $20. Further reading: There's Nowhere to Put the Oil.
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Oil Plunges Below Zero for First Time With May Contract Ending

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  • by mobby_6kl ( 668092 ) on Monday April 20, 2020 @01:10PM (#59969220)

    Due to high transport and storage costs, prices could go negative.

    So I'm looking forward to being paid for my Sunday morning drives. I guess this pandemic thing is not all bad!

    • by Mashiki ( 184564 )

      Due to high transport and storage costs, prices could go negative.

      There's some other issues too. Like backlogs of transport, or poor transport infrastructure. Something that's been hitting Canada since Jr came to power, and now oil prices have collapsed for the country. The price for heavy and medium crude is $-3/bbl. So that puts the two biggest oil producing regions in Canada into a worse straight, in regions where unemployment has been above 10% and in some areas over 80% for years. Those areas are Alberta, Saskatchewan, most maritime provinces(New Brunswick, Nova

  • by guruevi ( 827432 ) on Monday April 20, 2020 @01:11PM (#59969226)

    Futures are potential sales. We all know that we won't convert full-nuclear and fusion still being a few decades away, no matter how desperate we need to get rid of carbon emission as well as reduce our use of lead, lithium, plastics and rare earth material used in the production of solar and wind alternatives.

    So as soon as this crisis is over, you'll be buying $60-120 oil again. If you can invest even just $10,000, that means next year you can sell for at least $300K-1.2M.

    • by MightyMartian ( 840721 ) on Monday April 20, 2020 @01:19PM (#59969254) Journal

      I think $120 is fantasy land. Maybe $60, but I'll wager it will be well into next year before even that is achieved. The early idea that major economies would just spring back into action once shelter-at-home orders were lifted seems to be receding as a likely possibility. Unless OPEC+ does something truly radical as economies start to ramp up, oil prices have a long hill to climb back up, and there are going to be fewer players by the time it does.

      They're starting to store oil in tankers so that tells you they're stuffing oil into every single nook and cranny they can find. That's a helluva lot of inventory that is going to put downward pressure on oil for quite some time.

      • by guruevi ( 827432 )

        When WTI fails (this isn't Exxon-Mobil also known as Brent crude), do you really think the Saudi's and Russia won't drive the prices to the points we've seen when the US wasn't energy independent?

        • I'm sure the Russians and Saudis will do whatever it takes to damage North American production. But the problem here isn't something that can be fixed with market manipulation. It's a physical storage capacity limit. Unless a lot more storage is built and producers are basically paid by taxpayers to keep pumping oil (which will, of course, have the effect of driving prices even lower), I don't see a solution. Oh, and that additional capacity should have been built like, oh I don't know, a couple of years ag

      • What about refining?

        If oil is being stored in every nook and cranny at this point, shouldn't refineries start to do very very well right now?
        • Except the demand is way down. What refineries are producing isn't worth as much and thus you'd end up with gasoline and distillate inventories rising, and then you have to find somewhere to put all the gas, diesel, aviation fuel and the like. Diesel doubtless still has significant demand, but gasoline, aviation fuel, bunker fuel and the like, probably not so much.

          • Let me lay down my thinking:

            There is a massive overproduction of oil that cannot be tamed.
            The refineries can buy oil for almost nothing.

            Now, demand for gasoline is down, but isnt that made up for by the fact that crude is essentially free?

            Refinery output CAN be tamed. Simply dont over-produce. Its not like an oil well. Refineries can be turned off and on.
            • But if refineries run out of space, or more to the point, don't want to refine a product that is, in adjusted dollars, as low as it has been in decades, why would refineries just go on a production blitz? There are gas stations all over North America that are basically shutting their doors early because between having to close their convenience stores and tens of millions less drivers, they are not making enough to keep their doors open. Distillates like aviation fuel are probably plentiful in storage becau

            • by guruevi ( 827432 )

              Refineries, like wells, can't simply be shut down and turned back on. There is significant time required to shutdown and restore operations. Shale oil wells simply collapse if they're sealed and will need to be re-drilled. Refinery processes likewise require stable storage for its chemicals and some parts will simply corrode if not continuously used.

        • by Sique ( 173459 )
          No. Prices on crude are down, because refineries are not doing well. If refineries were demanding oil, prices of crude would rise. And refineries are doing badly, because demand for refined products is down. Even if you get your supply for free, if no one is buying your product, you will do badly.
    • by crow ( 16139 )

      The problem isn't that people aren't willing to invest, the problem is that we have oil now and no place left to store it. Go ahead and buy $10,000 worth of oil now. Where will you put it? Everyone that has large oil storage capacity has filled it up on the assumption that they will be able to sell it for a lot more in the future, just like you said.

    • Re:Great time to buy (Score:5, Informative)

      by DrMrLordX ( 559371 ) on Monday April 20, 2020 @01:35PM (#59969316)

      The problem is that futures contracts represent your commitment to take possession of crude at some future point. Futures traders rely on their ability to buy and sell those contracts without physical delivery of the product. Now it's unclear how long it will be before any futures trader can sell a contract at spot price, which is why those contracts are selling for so little. Nobody wants to be stuck with barrel upon barrel of crude when they have nowhere to put it!

      If futures trading were "honest" - that is, if we FORCED people to demonstrate their ability to take possession of crude before permitting them to buy contracts at all - then we would not have this problem.

      • by SeaFox ( 739806 )

        If futures trading were "honest" - that is, if we FORCED people to demonstrate their ability to take possession of crude before permitting them to buy contracts at all - then we would not have this problem.

        Makes me wonder why the Feds don't buy it. We have strategic oil reserves and I doubt they are all full right now. Why not take it off their hands while it's being literally given away and top those tanks off?

      • It used to be (Score:3, Interesting)

        by rsilvergun ( 571051 )
        Bush Jr deregulated the commodities market allowing for what you're describing. I don't think anyone talks nearly enough about that. It instantly raised commodity prices 10% (e.g. gas and food) and they've been climbing every since.

        We let investors skim off the most essential things needed for human beings to live while adding zero value (besides a very small amount of liquidity). And here we are when it's time for them to step up and take it on the chin for the sake of that liquidity and, what do you k
        • Futures contracts pay for production of commodities.

          For oil, it pays for the rig and workers to pump it. The person who buys the futures contract does so thinking he can sell the contract to a refiner just before delivery at a higher price than he paid for the contract.

          Commodities futures is really betting on what the market will be like in the future, which is where the risk to investors and traders come in. If you buy, say, 100,000 pounds frozen concentrated orange juice at $100.00 on margin because
      • The oil price is just a side effect of the current underlying problem.

        Remember the section in The Big Short, just before the market collapsed, where Jared Vennett is telling the brokers "yes, there's some shady s*** going on, but it's fueled by stupidity" and the garage-band traders are saying "two plus two equals... fish"?

        When no one knows the true value of the underlying asset, then it's impossible to correctly price a derivative. Let alone speculate on the value of that derivative.
      • by ceoyoyo ( 59147 ) on Monday April 20, 2020 @02:42PM (#59969566)

        Is it a problem? Looks like some speculators are taking a bath, some producers are getting a stay of execution, and those people who actually intend to take delivery are getting the bargain of the century.

      • if we FORCED people to demonstrate their ability to take possession

        That would eliminate futures for sale literally ripping half of the system out of the economy, or *massively* over provisioning some very expensive storage.

    • by PPH ( 736903 )

      Time to start hoarding gasoline. When the garage is full of jerry cans I think I can stack some in the back bedroom.

      • Curious, people who use heating oil, is the price way down? Are people using heating oil filling their tanks for next year if it is?
    • So as soon as this crisis is over, you'll be buying $60-120 oil again. If you can invest even just $10,000, that means next year you can sell for at least $300K-1.2M.

      Best of luck to you on that. Be sure to post on /. next year to tell us how it worked out.

      Personally, I wouldn't do it. In the near term (the next year), it's going to take a while to recover from the glut caused by the OPEC/Russia price war and then the COVID-19 pandemic. The pandemic is going to continue suppressing travel for at least a year, and it's likely that business travel will continue to be depressed from what it was, because people are getting used to communicating remotely. Oil-producing

  • No trades have executed since somebody sold for 1 cent.
  • by JoeyRox ( 2711699 ) on Monday April 20, 2020 @01:16PM (#59969238)
    In other words, the market will pay you $4/barrel right now to take physical delivery tomorrow.
  • Um, maybe in the ground? Or would they rather spill it on the beach?

    • by MightyMartian ( 840721 ) on Monday April 20, 2020 @01:27PM (#59969286) Journal

      My understanding is that depending upon the kind of well, shutting it down can be an enormous undertaking, and in some cases will mean capping it off and redrilling. It's not a tap that you just turn the spigot off, at least in many cases. Some sources like the oil sands in Alberta and North Dakota can probably just shut down operations, but if you're in Texas, or on a rig in the Gulf of Mexico, it's going to be a complex and expensive affair to shut the wells down, and to start them back up again.

      • by ceoyoyo ( 59147 )

        Partly that, but there's also a cost to letting the machinery idle and laying off all the workers. The Alberta oil sands have been basically operating at a loss for a quite a while. They still produce oil and haven't shut down because once you've bought all the machinery it costs pretty much the same whether it's operating or not.

    • by guruevi ( 827432 )

      The US stockpile reserve does that. The government is buying massive amounts of oil ($500M/day) to supply itself and keep the market alive. It's actually a good time to buy if you believe Russia and Saudi will stop pushing oil on the market to destroy small business Texan shale oil companies.

      This isn't Exxon-Mobil oil we're talking about, this is mom-and-pop small business in Texas, portions of PA, NY and Canada that invested their life savings to develop shale oil and natural gas.

      • And let's remember, it's not like oil sands and shale oil were fantastic market performers even before the Saudi-Russian oil war and the pandemic. These aren't companies dipping from a high, these are companies that were already in pretty rough shape six months ago; like an airplane who were in a stall, and now couldn't pull up even if they wanted to. It's almost certain that Alberta and North Dakota oil sands are worth less than $0, as well as a lot of shale oil assets. And Exxon isn't doing that great eit

        • by ceoyoyo ( 59147 )

          Shale and oil sands were never a good business. Any business with production costs twenty or thirty times it's competitors is absolutely insane. The only reason it worked at all was because an international cartel is even more insanely greedy. Or was.

    • Um, maybe in the ground?

      Unless you've built proper storage tanks (which takes money), you'll contaminate the groundwater. You can go to prison for that.

  • by JoeyRox ( 2711699 ) on Monday April 20, 2020 @01:26PM (#59969282)
    The one thing the Fed wants to avoid more than anything is a deflationary spiral. Deflation in an economy built on a house-of-cards made of debt would be devastating - trillions of dollars of loans would be worthless. Assets have been overvalued for a long time and the debt associated with those assets can never be paid with correctly-priced capital - the Fed's plan has been to use inflation to implicitly pay the debt back with nominal dollars (for example, $1 of debt last year worth $0.96 this year, thus a 4% haircut). The market isn't letting that happen.
    • trillions of dollars of loans would be worthless.

      What? Wouldn't that be the opposite? The loans would be worth MORE after deflation.

      • What? Wouldn't that be the opposite? The loans would be worth MORE after deflation.

        Yes, yes they would.

        Inflation destroys both savings and debts. Deflation makes both worth more.

        But we are probably dealing with someone that confuses currency with wealth (Wealth is goods and service, not currency.)

      • by djinn6 ( 1868030 )

        The loans would be worth MORE after deflation.

        Yes, but that is temporary. Everybody's over-leveraged. At a time of reduced revenue, the rising cost of debt will trigger a chain of defaults and bankruptcies. Once that happens, the loans will quickly become worthless.

      • by JoeyRox ( 2711699 ) on Monday April 20, 2020 @01:47PM (#59969370)
        What? Wouldn't that be the opposite? The loans would be worth MORE after deflation.

        No, the loans would be less (or worthless) because many borrowers would default on them. For example, if an oil producer borrows $1B to do E&P oil production with an expected margin of 10% then things are peachy when times are good - the producer is using leverage to get an effective ROI many multiples of that 10% since they used other people's money to finance their production. Now imagine what happens the margin drops to -40%, ie it becomes more expensive to produce oil then to let it sit in the ground. Those producers will walk away from their business and the loans which backed them. Now imagine that happening across nearly every industry in the economy. As more people walk away from their loans, the assets which back them become worth less because there's no liquidity available to buy them, which triggers panic selling of those assets, driving their price down even further, which then drives down the price of otherwise "good" loans even further and into default.
        • Another example is people underwater on their home loans after the 2008 crisis. You're wasting half your income making payments on a mortgage on which you owe $500K and your home is now worth $380K. It's a strong incentive to walk away.
      • by ceoyoyo ( 59147 )

        The loans are worthless now. It would just be more obvious without inflation.

    • Not really. Until I see an audit of the fed they have no reason to fear anything but the audit itself. I want to see every penny they have spent.
  • Fucking paywalls (Score:5, Insightful)

    by AndyKron ( 937105 ) on Monday April 20, 2020 @01:35PM (#59969318)
    Fucking paywalls.
  • by p51d007 ( 656414 ) on Monday April 20, 2020 @01:58PM (#59969402)
    I like anyone else have enjoyed the CHEAP gas prices, but, (from the USA though), the price needs to go back up, to help remain an oil producer. America should never be dependent on someone else for oil. At 30 dollars a barrel and up, we can drill, frack our own oil which helps keep the middle east in check.
  • The futures traders provide insurance and liquidity for people who produce and consume a commodity. I pay a small premium to these market makers in return for liquidity and the ability to plan my costs and productions months in advance. However there are a small number of these traders who are completely clueless to the underlying commodities they are trading. They are just glorified pattern matching bots who will be replaced by AI. Back in January people should have seen this as a potential and I'm sur
  • Oil Speculators (Score:3, Informative)

    by Otis B. Dilroy III ( 2110816 ) on Monday April 20, 2020 @03:08PM (#59969694)
    It seems to me that a large percentage of the entities who hold these contracts are simply speculators.

    They purchased these contracts on the assumption that they would never be required to take physical delivery of the oil.

    Now they are faced with a situation where they may have to pay for oil upon which they cannot possibly take physical delivery.

    I am unsympathetic.

    These individuals and groups are part of the "it's who you know" culture that does nothing but profit insiders.

"The vast majority of successful major crimes against property are perpetrated by individuals abusing positions of trust." -- Lawrence Dalzell

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