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United States Power

In a First, Renewable Energy Is Poised To Eclipse Coal in US (nytimes.com) 177

The United States is on track to produce more electricity this year from renewable power than from coal for the first time on record, new government projections show, a transformation partly driven by the coronavirus pandemic, with profound implications in the fight against climate change. From a report: It is a milestone that seemed all but unthinkable a decade ago, when coal was so dominant that it provided nearly half the nation's electricity. And it comes despite the Trump administration's three-year push to try to revive the ailing industry by weakening pollution rules on coal-burning power plants. Those efforts, however, failed to halt the powerful economic forces that have led electric utilities to retire hundreds of aging coal plants since 2010 and run their remaining plants less frequently.

The cost of building large wind farms has declined more than 40 percent in that time, while solar costs have dropped more than 80 percent. And the price of natural gas, a cleaner-burning alternative to coal, has fallen to historic lows as a result of the fracking boom. Now the coronavirus outbreak is pushing coal producers into their deepest crisis yet. As factories, retailers, restaurants and office buildings have shut down nationwide to slow the spread of the coronavirus, demand for electricity has fallen sharply. And, because coal plants often cost more to operate than gas plants or renewables, many utilities are cutting back on coal power first in response.

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In a First, Renewable Energy Is Poised To Eclipse Coal in US

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  • by Inglix the Mad ( 576601 ) on Thursday May 14, 2020 @02:12PM (#60060448)
    Let's not forget that it wasn't just renewables getting cheaper killing coal, it was natural gas.

    Natural gas burns "clean" while coal leaves ash behind. Cheap natural gas made coal an inefficient form of power generation due to the costs of coal ash.
    • by Anonymous Coward

      ...but the extraction sure as hell wreaks havoc on the environment. What's the point of a clean fuel if your drinking water can literally catch on fire?

      • by hey! ( 33014 )

        ...but the extraction sure as hell wreaks havoc on the environment.

        Not compared to coal, although to be fair we haven't reached peak fracking yet. I anticipate environmental effects to worsen as we crest the peak, because things like produced water will be peaking just as marginal profits start to shrink to zero.

        But at present, every BTU produced by natural gas over coal is probably a net win, environmentally.

      • by jellomizer ( 103300 ) on Thursday May 14, 2020 @03:45PM (#60060808)

        I think you are debating the fact we can't have a perfect solution is justification to keep the current bad one.

        There will be trade offs for any source of energy. A solar farm will make pollution in order to create it, also large slats of land will need to be cut down too.

        However the net cost is lower compared to the net benefit.

        • > I think you are debating the fact we can't have a perfect solution is justification to keep the current bad one.

          Hey, it's the 'net, that's what we created it for. Like this...

          > also large slats of land will need to be cut down too

          How do you cut down land?

          See? /s

      • by virtig01 ( 414328 ) on Thursday May 14, 2020 @04:31PM (#60060966)

        ...but the extraction sure as hell wreaks havoc on the environment. What's the point of a clean fuel if your drinking water can literally catch on fire?

        Except it's not the gas drilling the caused such a scene; it was the drilling of the water well.

        From SciAM [popularmechanics.com]:

        It's an iconic image, captured in the 2010 Academy Award—nominated documentary GasLand. A Colorado man holds a flame to his kitchen faucet and turns on the water. The pipes rattle and hiss, and suddenly a ball of fire erupts. It appears a damning indictment of the gas drilling nearby. But Colorado officials determined the gas wells weren't to blame; instead, the homeowner's own water well had been drilled into a naturally occurring pocket of methane.

    • Re: (Score:3, Interesting)

      by bobbied ( 2522392 )

      Further, natural gas has been getting cheaper and cheaper in real dollars since the advent of fracking. It's the sure fire economic play right now, being, by far, the cheapest source of electric power over the plant full life cycle, bar none. Further, in the USA the price of natural gas isn't likely to go up much for the next decade (factoring in inflation) or more, so it is going to kill Coal, Nuclear, you name it, for the foreseeable future.

      In fact, I've argued that we need to push natural gas as a mo

      • by Maxo-Texas ( 864189 ) on Thursday May 14, 2020 @03:33PM (#60060770)

        Fracking has been shown by multiple studies plus literal satellite photos to be releasing *huge* amounts of methane linking the particular radioisotope released to whats in the atmosphere. And it's 20x as effective as CO2 for capturing heat.

        https://archive.thinkprogress.... [thinkprogress.org]

        https://www.sciencedaily.com/r... [sciencedaily.com]

        and it was *predicted* it would do so.
        https://www.scientificamerican... [scientificamerican.com]

        https://www.nasa.gov/press/201... [nasa.gov]

        And finally...using natural gas only produces about 30 percent less than oil and 45 percent less than coal. It's less. Not zero.

        • And it's 20x as effective as CO2 for capturing heat.

          True, but methane also persists for around 12 years. Where CO2 is estimated to take anywhere between 20 and 200 years for 65 to 80% to be absorbed by the ocean and photosynthesis. The remaining 20 to 35% takes thousands of years to be removed from the atmosphere.

        • Nope, nat gas (and helium) is often vented anyway and not just at fracking sites, oil companies have been doing that for over a century. A couple hysteria videos on youtube were showing wells that were drilled into methane deposits false blamed on fracking too.

      • There is a bit of range reduction (natural gas takes up more space for the same energy output) but the refueling times are comparable to gasoline. We should be pushing it's use as a motor fuel...

        We should be pushing CNG as transportation fuel.

        What can help with this "range anxiety" from CNG are lessons learned from electric cars. First is that CNG cars can be filled up at home for people that already have natural gas service for heating and cooking. Second, electric car range improved once car manufacturers started to design cars around the electric drive train instead of trying to shoehorn an electric drive train into cars designed for running on gasoline. Most CNG cars take a hit in range and/

      • by dryeo ( 100693 )

        It's strange, about 30 years back there was quite a few natural gas cars around, most gas stations had a natural gas pump, a lot of the cars were dual fuel. My neighbour had one, a Hyundai IIRC and he was pretty happy with it, then they vanished. Propane was a lot more popular back then too, especially for trucks where you could use part of the bed or under the bed for the tank. They seem to have gone too. This is in a market with the most expensive gasoline in N. America

        • Gasoline is cheap, cheap, cheap considering. And CNG, while still popular in some locations (like around here in Dallas, where I know of at least 10 CNG providers within about 10 min driving distance of my home) there are other economic factors that affect CNG use. Maintaining the systems can get expensive, because the DOT requires that pressurized gas bottles, especially those that carry flammable materials be regularly tested to make sure they are still safe. This testing requires removal of the tanks

    • And let's also keep in mind that natural gas is substantially better than coal at a CO2 per a unit of energy metric. Coal produces around 2 pounds of CO2 per a kilowatt hour while natural gas produces around 0.9 lb of CO2 per a kilowatt hour. See https://www.eia.gov/tools/faqs/faq.php?id=74&t=11 [eia.gov]. Natural gas does have the additional downside that it comes with larger methane leaks, and methane is a really bad greenhouse gas, but even given that, this switch is probably a net benefit for the environment
    • by Luckyo ( 1726890 ) on Thursday May 14, 2020 @03:09PM (#60060666)

      This is the technically wrong on both kinds, so best kind of wrong.

      First one, renewables aren't replacing coal. They can't. Coal is base power and spinning reserve. Renewables (wind and solar) are intermittent. Intermittent power sources cannot replace base power nor spinning reserve without large scale energy storage in the grid, unless you like having power on a few hours a day.

      Second, coal ash is borderline irrelevant for the problem of coal vs natgas. The primary advantages of natgas over cola come from the following:

      1. Approximately half CO2 emitted per unit of energy generated. Natgas is the primary reason and responsible for clear majority of CO2 emissions reduction per energy generated in US grid today. Renewables can't come even close until most of coal is phased out.
      2. Much simpler systems needed to burn natgas compared to coal. Modern CCGTs help a lot here, as compared to burner + steam turbine needed for generating power with coal.
      3. Aforementioned CCGTs typically have a much faster spin up time from various reserve states to fully operational, enabling them to act at very good reserve power for intermittents. This is why renewables are actually growing. You can even unhook the steam turbine part and run most of those in much more wasteful but very quick to spin up OCGT cycle in case some idiot decided to go full Denmark and put far too much wind power in relation to everything else, and then there's a sudden calm period or a storm.
      4. Natgas is essentially a free byproduct of shale oil extraction in US. It being free is so ridiculous, that US refineries are in process of actually retooling extraction of various chemical products that are usually considered incredibly inefficient to extract from natgas and are extracted from oil in much more efficient way instead. But what can't you do with huge and basically free supply of one of the most flexible (if not the most optimal) industrial chemical inputs.

      So today in US as soon as pipe network system connecting a shale field to your region is built and running, everyone retools whatever capacity they have to use natgas for anything and everything that it can be used for. Coal cannot compete because in US today, it's actually significantly more expensive than natgas just on fuel per energy price alone. Because its really hard to compete with "almost free". And in some cases, suppliers will even pay you to take natgas, because it cannot be stored cost effectively in current energy supply situation in US, and it's extremely dangerous if released, as it tends to go boom. Very big boom. And some regions are increasingly making flaring it (the normal way to handle natgas when you don't have a pipe to send it through) taxed/sanctioned. So it becomes more expensive to flare than to build a pipe and send it off. Hence the "producers will sometimes pay you to take it".

      • by Ichijo ( 607641 )

        Renewables (wind and solar) are intermittent. Intermittent power sources cannot replace base power...without large scale energy storage in the grid

        Are you sure? How much electrical demand is perfectly inelastic to price?

      • "Replacing" coal is not the goal of renewables. However it does reduce the use of coal and other non-renewable carbon fuels and that is a goal. A diverse portfolio is good for everyone.

        • by Luckyo ( 1726890 )

          That would be the sane green argument, yes. Sadly, as shown in the OP this argument tends to get shouted down by greentards who have no clue.

      • So, as California and other states have long known, natural gas is cheaper than coal.
        But now, even nat gas is being disintermediated by wind/solar/batteries. In fact, the 1000+
        gas peaker plants in the U.S. are now being displaced by battery banks, courtesy Tesla.

        • by Luckyo ( 1726890 )

          That's an impossibility. Natgas has been more expensive than coal throughout history, and in most regions on the world coal remains far cheaper than natgas. There are multiple locations in continental US itself that are not connected to the rapidly expanding natgas pipe network where coal is far cheaper than natgas.

          Because with natgas, if you can't directly pipe it from extraction operation to end user, it's not competitive with coal. Because storage is expensive and dangerous, as is CNG/LNG transfers. Coal

    • In short, it is the failure of Coal, vs the success of Renewables.
      While Natural Gas is pushing Coal towards failure. I expect there is also a Rise in Renewables too. As I am personally seeing a lot more Solar Farms and Wind Farms in my area, Having to Dodge win turbine trucks on my commute to work. So from my point of view Renewables are succeeding as well.

       

    • by clovis ( 4684 )

      Let's not forget that it wasn't just renewables getting cheaper killing coal, it was natural gas.

      Natural gas burns "clean" while coal leaves ash behind. Cheap natural gas made coal an inefficient form of power generation due to the costs of coal ash.

      Here's the link that should have been provided:
      https://www.eia.gov/electricit... [eia.gov]

      Over the previous ~20 years, you can clearly see that wind and solar are insignificant. Coal was replaced by natural gas.

  • There is no way around this. This is decidedly a good thing. Cheers. Coal is bad in just about every single way. Coal can die.
  • by account_deleted ( 4530225 ) on Thursday May 14, 2020 @02:21PM (#60060500)
    Comment removed based on user account deletion
  • by fatwilbur ( 1098563 ) on Thursday May 14, 2020 @02:44PM (#60060572)
    I'm not going to say it changed my opinion heavily, and I know there's beef with some specific facts, but in Planet of the Humans it was good to see a "extreme environmentalist" acknowledge reality - solar and wind are in no way going to replace our insatiable thirst for energy. They are part of the picture, do provide value, and more efficient uses of our fossil fuels is a great goal... but it is simply laughable to think our society can be run off the sun & wind. Look at biology systems, which use the same two energy sources. Anything using the sub for energy is simple and doesn't even move freely, those combusting hydrocarbons are complex and advanced. Consumption is the real problem and I don't think that cat is going back in the bag either. I came away from watching it with one conclusion: Nuclear is the only possible solution to meet our energy needs and reduce CO2 emissions. Tell me I'm wrong.
    • by XXongo ( 3986865 )

      I'm not going to say it changed my opinion heavily, and I know there's beef with some specific facts, but in Planet of the Humans it was good to see a "extreme environmentalist" acknowledge reality ... Tell me I'm wrong.

      I hate Michael Moore.

      I'm not going to hate him less just because he's being an ignorant jerk attacking left icons instead of attaching right icons.

    • by b0bby ( 201198 )

      I don't think it's the only possible solution, but it may be the most cost effective and therefore sensible solution. The caveat is that by the time wind and solar start to have increasing costs due to storage demands (~40%?), it's possible that there will have been enough advances in battery storage that they can be pushed even higher.

    • if you are quoting "Planet of the Humans" regarding renewables, you've lost the argument straight away. they used 10-15 year old data/videos about the it and as you should know thats a long long time in technology.

      Don't use the state of todays renewables infrastructure as a finished product its still early days.
      • if you are quoting "Planet of the Humans" regarding renewables, you've lost the argument straight away. they used 10-15 year old data/videos about the it and as you should know thats a long long time in technology.

        Don't use the state of todays renewables infrastructure as a finished product its still early days.

        Perhaps you could convince me on that about wind and solar but that's not going to go over well on the points made against biomass energy. In fact I changed my mind on wind and solar before. I used to think wind power was a waste of time and resources and solar PV would power the world. Since then I've seen wind power develop quite nicely while solar power remained relatively stagnant. Solar PV is an environmental disaster for anything on the grid. Off the grid there's a case that can be made, especial

    • Nuclear is the only possible solution to meet our energy needs and reduce CO2 emissions. Tell me I'm wrong.

      Easy peasy lemon squeezy: putting the astronomical costs and safety issues aside, nuclear plants routinely go down for weeks or months for maintenance. Sometimes even years. So all the handwringing over the power produced by wind and solar applies far more to your radioactive water heaters. Sorry.

      • by ebyrob ( 165903 )

        Why do people keep letting this go by? Just because no one complained earlier about your comments doesn't make them true.

        Nuclear is one of THE MOST RELIABLE forms of energy:

        https://www.energy.gov/ne/arti... [energy.gov]

        If plants are going down for 10 years, it's more likely political than technical...

        A coal or natural gas plant is more likely to go down for maintenance than a nuclear plant. (and they're more available than most of the others...)

    • by AnotherBlackHat ( 265897 ) on Thursday May 14, 2020 @03:29PM (#60060760) Homepage

      Tell me I'm wrong.

      Okay, you're wrong.

      We need cheap energy. For cheap energy, Nuclear isn't even a solution, much less the only solution.
      Even if Nuclear becomes "too cheap to meter" (say, with molten salt reactor technology), it's going to have to compete with solar's "cheaper than delivery".

      Planet of the Humans rightly points out that alternative energy isn't free (pollution or otherwise).
      But it misses the fact that some forms are cheaper/cleaner than every other alternative.
      We can't run our society 100% on solar, but we can run over 75%.
      And we're going to, because for over 75% of us, it's going to be the cheapest alternative.

      • by Maxo-Texas ( 864189 ) on Thursday May 14, 2020 @03:37PM (#60060786)

        And the real costs of Nuclear are always backloaded.

        We escrow more than we used to but decomissioning still costs more than was escrowed and those costs are always dumped on citizens who were not born yet and who didn't get the artificially cheap power.

        But they'll be stuck with the tab for that and for maintaining decades of multi-million dollar security and storage costs.

  • According to the IMF, governments around the world subsidize(!) the oil industry with a whopping $5.7 trillion. Some people think green power is very much subsidized, and in some cases it is. The amount with which fossil fuels are subsidized are pretty extreme though and green subsidies pale in comparison.

    Read more: https://www.theatlantic.com/sc... [theatlantic.com]

  • I'm sure he'll have this matter handled any day now.
  • The EIA has such graphs [eia.gov]. Coal is being traded off for natural gas and renewables.

    What's going on with the virus shutdown is that demand has plummeted since huge swaths of industry (consumes roughly half the electricity in the country) are shut down.
    • Nuclear is very slow to ramp down (the fission products continue to decay naturally, releasing more heat even after you "shut down" the reactor). So it's typically run at full power 24/7.
    • Renewables' costs are front-loaded into their construction costs. The
  • Comparing America's AE vs. Coal is a joke. Why? Because AE is growing pretty much at economic growth. IOW, if the economy increases 3%, so does AE.
    Look down at Historical primary energy consumption from 1950 through 2019. [eia.gov]
    One of the interesting things is that the BTUs of nat gas + coal COMBINED has not changed since 1995. Because of the far lefties/righties here, all we have done is drop coal and add nat gas in the same amount. This is a losing situation. yes, CO2 has dropped, and will certainly continue
  • Anybody watch "Planet of the Humans" ?

    Biomass means cutting down trees to burn instead of coal.

    Sure, trees are "renewable" just takes about 9 years.

  • These people are all daft. Coal is a renewable energy source.

PURGE COMPLETE.

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