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China United States Technology

China Plans for a World Without American Technology (nytimes.com) 228

China is freeing up tens of billions of dollars for its tech industry to borrow. It is cataloging the sectors where the United States or others could cut off access to crucial technologies. And when its leaders released their most important economic plans last week, they laid out their ambitions to become an innovation superpower beholden to none. From a report: Anticipating efforts by the Biden administration to continue to challenge China's technological rise, the country's leaders are accelerating plans to go it alone, seeking to address vulnerabilities in the country's economy that could thwart its ambitions in a wide range of industries, from smartphones to jet engines.

China has made audacious and ambitious plans before -- in 2015 -- but is falling short of its goals. With more countries becoming wary of China's behavior and its growing economic might, Beijing's drive for technological independence has taken on a new urgency. The country's new five-year plan, made public on Friday, called tech development a matter of national security, not just economic development, a break from the previous plan. The plan pledged to increase spending on research and development by 7 percent annually, including the public and private sectors. That figure was higher than budget increases for China's military, which is slated to grow 6.8 percent next year, raising the prospect of an era of looming Cold War-like competition with the United States.

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China Plans for a World Without American Technology

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  • Good for them (Score:3, Insightful)

    by JeffOwl ( 2858633 ) on Wednesday March 10, 2021 @03:13PM (#61144844)
    Neither the US nor China should be exclusively dependent upon the other for anything critical.
    • Re:Good for them (Score:4, Insightful)

      by vyvepe ( 809573 ) on Wednesday March 10, 2021 @03:18PM (#61144870)
      Why? They are less likely to start a war if they depend on each other.
      • No government allows itself to be completely dependent on another country when it comes to national security. I don't see this as an issue, there is enough other co-dependency between the US and China that war wouldn't be a good idea for either side. Russia, on the other hand, had better start saving because they already mortgaged Siberian resources to the Chinese for currency. China is also starting to seriously surpass the Russian state in terms of military technology. The only benefit for the US is that
      • Tell that to Syria, Iran, Bolivia, and Venezuela. When they are resources to be had, America does not hesitate to go to war.
        • Meh that's a bit over simplistic. We're not at war with Venezuela. Actually, we've barely done anything in Syria either. Also, Venezuela and Syria are tiny bit players when it comes to resources. They barely produce anything anymore. You could erase them off the map and it would barely make a blip in oil output. Saudi could make up for their loss by turning their pumps on for a few more seconds each day.

          Maybe I'm an ignorant American, but I'm not even sure why Bolivia is on that list. When did they mat
      • I am not sure that's true. If one country needs what another country has, that is an automatic incentive to go take it by force. Further, the countries may escalate anger between one another by withholding whatever-it-is that they depend on.

        A country benefits from having other countries depend on it. Especially if they can use that dependency to create a favorable balance of trade (which is the polite way of saying "price gouge."). It also gives a measure of political control over the dependent countrie

        • by vyvepe ( 809573 )

          If one country needs what another country has, that is an automatic incentive to go take it by force.

          You are not likely to be able to take over some country by force without destroying capital. And most of the production is there thanks to the capital (factories, machines, infrastructure and knowhow of the citizens). Taking over a country by force gives you a country with destroyed infrastructure and factories and also likely a population which hates the occupants and is willing to take it to guerilla warfare. It is not useful.

          The only case one may consider taking a country by force is if that country has

      • During WWI, the British and Germans sold and traded equipment with each other to help fight the war.

    • Doesn't surprise me either. From a national standpoint, pretty much everyone does something similar. The scale might change, but they've probably realized they're not going steal much more technology easily, so they'd better get themselves positioned in case a trade conflict gets really serious.
    • by dstwins ( 167742 )

      The problem is, in a global economy, you are now spending a lot of money on "low level" stuff simply to keep people out vs. farming out "junk" to others so you can focus on higher tech areas.. (its one reason why the US has the power it has is, its farmed a lot of things out, which makes other countries dependent on the money flow.. (it also makes the US dependent on them) which means because there is a symbiotic relationship, you won't screw each other TOO badly.. because you need each other. When that re

  • large parts of the economy are already out-competed by or dependent on chinese output, or dependent on chinese markets...not an especially pleasant outlook..I guess we will know when Taiwan gets a Hongkong-like make-over...
    • You can thank one Richard Nixon for whatever happens to Taiwan. What stopped Nixon from promoting Taiwan into a real country when he switched the US-accepted China from the RoC to the PRC back in 1972? Generalissimo Chiang's delusions of grandeur?

    • The problem with that is China is then cutting their own (the government's) throat. They've bought a lot of worldwide debt, in particular US debt, to try and bootstrap themselves through their upcoming population crisis. China and the US need each other in ways neither could've predicted. That co-dependency makes any Chinese move against America extremely dangerous for the Communist Party. They are not far off from running into a demographic nightmare that could result in extreme political instability, to p
  • I doubt the spying and stealing will stop either.

    • by ceoyoyo ( 59147 )

      1) Steal technology from countries that are ahead of you
      2) Become an industrial powerhouse
      3) Become a scientific and design powerhouse while exporting most ordinary manufacturing; also become a massive market

      That's the US playbook from inception to present. Look familiar?

  • by getuid() ( 1305889 ) on Wednesday March 10, 2021 @03:17PM (#61144860)

    This is actually the real cost of the economic ambushes of the previous US administration: motivating China into finding alternatives, thus becoming not only more independent, but also creating less revenue for the US. So: bad move.

    On the other hand: 1180 BC the bronze age collapsed because it was a too strongly intertwined civilization, and failing of a few actors led to the others not being able to continue their technological advance. We're arguably at a similar point in our development, where failing of few actors means that for a significant time we can't even produce enough paper masks, let alone electronics, syringes etc.

    So a significant part of our civilization (e.g. China) gaining ability to go it alone, and succeeding, is a good move. It means better redundancy, and in the larger picture this means our own cicilization less likely to collapse.

    Of course, this probably sucks if you're used to whining that it's "the other party" (e.g. China) that "wins". But if you're still thinking in terms of my-tribe-vs-the-other, and still haven't realized that, as humanity, from now on we're in this together, and we'll inevitably survive or go extinct *together*, you're really lacking a few clues.

    • 1180 BC the bronze age collapsed because it was a too strongly intertwined civilization, and failing of a few actors led to the others not being able to continue their technological advance.

      This explanation seems an unlikely explanation for the late bronze age collapse, since many civilizations in the region were able to survive and continue improving their technology.
      The most likely explanation is the improved technology of warfare allowed groups that had the new technology to destroy the cities of groups who did not have the technology.

      • by znrt ( 2424692 )

        This explanation seems an unlikely explanation for the late bronze age collapse, since many civilizations in the region were able to survive and continue improving their technology.

        actually only egypt and assyria avoided complete destruction and managed to survive long enough to experiment permanent decline over the next century before becoming irrelevant. they never made it out alone. what supposed improved technology are you talking about?

        • actually only egypt and assyria avoided complete destruction

          No that's not true, there were not many groups that were completely destroyed in that era.

          what supposed improved technology are you talking about?

          Iron working is the most notable.

    • by lamer01 ( 1097759 ) on Wednesday March 10, 2021 @03:44PM (#61144954)
      for the fact that China's plan was to go at it alone eventually anyway. Regardless, I think the horse has left the barn. There's no tech that China does not have through legitimate channels or through industrial espionage. In addition, many of the scientists are educated and worked in places where those technologies existed. It's silly to think that you can fence technology and knowledge. There's nothing special about what the West may have that others cannot eventually get on their own. The real problem with China is that they are spending tons of money on their military when they should not have to if you think about it. They basically were the world's manufacturing engine and other countries were willingly giving them their manufacturing. The expansion of the military is what is making everyone else worried about China's end game.
      • Re: (Score:3, Interesting)

        by Train0987 ( 1059246 )

        What innovations are coming out of China? What technological advancement is happening there?

        • by malkavian ( 9512 )

          I can tell you don't read research papers. China is absolutely churning them out (lots of them high quality too).
          I was travelling China nearly 20 years ago, and while going around the back roads, some areas had what looked like a small city being built. Turns out that these were tech campuses for new universities. And it was apparently a big plan to implement them to push research forward. I suspect they're working very nicely at that.
          China has also had the policy that if you were extremely well educate

      • by znrt ( 2424692 )

        The real problem with China is that they are spending tons of money on their military when they should not have to if you think about it.

        if you think of what? public military spending in china has been the same proportionally to gnp for decades. ofc when gnp skyrocketed so did military spending. so how much "should china spend on military" regarding your criteria and who actually are you to have a say on the issue?

        extra fun fact, china actually spends less than half as the us.

      • by ytene ( 4376651 )
        I has implemented a 100-year plan. Whether or not you agree with his politics or his style, the single most significant difference between Xi’s China and the west right now is that the west are squabbling incessantly over trivial ‘battles’, while Xi is waging a long term, strategic war.

        At the moment the West believe that technical superiority and control of monetary policy will perpetuate historic dominance. China is investing in everything - just look at recent announcements about magl
      • by khchung ( 462899 )

        for the fact that China's plan was to go at it alone eventually anyway.

        This is a self-fulfilling prophecy that Trump helped to fulfil.

        Before Trump, there were long and heated debates in China whether they should develop, buy, or just rent, any technology they needed. While self-reliance is more or less an overarching policy, time-to-market concerns and sometimes simply convenience were more important, so they often buy what they needed. If the US had not have long standing restrictions on high-tech exports to China since even before Clinton, the US trade deficit would not ha

    • Re: (Score:3, Insightful)

      Yes, humanity is together, but if you think the CCP elite are part of that humanity, then either you do not understand China, or you have very little reverence for liberal principles. The difference China has with the west is primarily _ideological_, not economic. This is why the golden arches doctrine has been a failure. By seeking what you thought was win-win with China, we only enabled the CCP to further cement their brutal rule. The only sense that might be win-win is in that the CCP gets two wins,
    • The communist party has proven itself, time and again, to be obscenely corrupt, and ideologically bent on dominance. They do not believe in win-win situations. They believe they are the master race. It's a bit like Cthulhu: the less you know about the CCP, the better for your sanity. Senior CCP official privately call themselves "walking dead", because the job literally entails being corrupt and cruel.

      This fight is not about "winning over the other party". It's about human decency; our children's future.
  • ''called tech development a matter of national security, not just economic development, ''

    So... does that mean wholesale theft of IP is now officially governmentally sanctioned? Surely, any development created will be designed to own the market for the development, regardless of the actual cost of development, production or distribution.

    ''Chinaâ(TM)s typical modus operandi is to steal American IP, replicate it, replace the U.S. company originating that IP in the Chinese domestic market, then displace t

  • Always good for a cold war piece. Too bad the cold war died 20 years ago and people have moved on.
  • Sensible (Score:4, Interesting)

    by ErichTheRed ( 39327 ) on Wednesday March 10, 2021 @04:29PM (#61145088)

    We're rapidly heading towards a second Cold War (hopefully.) The weird thing about this one is that China makes all the world's manufactured goods. Not sure how we're going to reconcile this...

    Should be interesting to watch. The Soviet Union was slightly behind on technology during the Cold War which gave the US the advantage in a lot of areas. Not sure how well we'll fare when we're not able to manufacture items ourselves, plus China's on a more equal footing technology-wise. The advantage they have (other than population) is total state control over a modern economy. They let the market be "free enough" and exercise control when needed.

  • 'American'? (Score:4, Interesting)

    by TJHook3r ( 4699685 ) on Wednesday March 10, 2021 @06:04PM (#61145446)
    As a foreigner, the notion that technology is American is amusing. If you took an average roomful of people in any high-tech company the chances are good that you have at least three continents represented! Not to mention the fact that companies would leave tomorrow if tax rules changed.
  • Little wonder (Score:2, Insightful)

    In China they have 5 year plans. In the US we can't even pass a budget and have been unable to do so for years.

    In China they are building new airports. In the US we are telling air traffic controllers to wear masks, hampering communications with pilots.

    In China they build everything. In the US we build almost nothing.

    In China their schools focus on math and science. In the US our schools focus on critical race theory, tearing down statues of formerly revered Americans, and leftist indoctrination. Math and s

    • In the US we are telling air traffic controllers to wear masks, hampering communications with pilots.

      In the US we are telling people to protect themselves against deadly contagious diseases by wearing masks. Any evidence that this "hampers communications" or did you invent that?

      In the US our schools focus on critical race theory, tearing down statues of formerly revered Americans, and leftist indoctrination. Math and science are way down the list

      Funny how our universities are full of foreigners, including many Chinese, who come specifically to US universities to study and research there.

      In China they appear to have little in the way of racial tension.

      Except for the ongoing genocide of Uighurs of course.

      Our governments (Republican and Democrat alike) continue to piss away trillions of dollars that we don't have and pay for it by increasing the money supply. The interest rates are so low

      If we increase the money supply and interest rates stay near zero, then clearly the market isn't worried by our money printing.

  • At the dawn of Age of Exploration, Spain and Portugal got the early breakthroughs. They divvied up the Americas between themselves, and also parts of far east too. So much of wealth exploited from the new world, the local industry pretty soon became non-competitive, because the local currency strengthened so much. Imports were cheap, local artisans could not compete. Eventually its dominance passed, UK aggressively took lots of its possessions. France took some too.

    But despite losing local productive ind

  • They have to wait for SpaceX to finish designing Starship and Raptor. Pretty sure they would want the latest CAD files, they wonâ(TM)t want to be stuck with the SN10 design.

  • The question is, now that all industrialized nations are waking up to the smell of burnt coffee, called china, I am expecting they will look closely into their own infrastructure and weed out the industrial spies. After that, whatever china has stolen from the west until today is their base point. Without free information flow from the west, how fast will they be able to go. That is the question.

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