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Irreversible Warming Tipping Point May Have Been Triggered: Arctic Mission Chief (straitstimes.com) 309

The tipping point for irreversible global warming may have already been triggered, the scientist who led the biggest expedition to the Arctic warned Tuesday. AFP: "The disappearance of summer sea ice in the Arctic is one of the first landmines in this minefield, one of the tipping points that we set off first when we push warming too far," said Dr Markus Rex. "And one can essentially ask if we haven't already stepped on this mine and already set off the beginning of the explosion." Dr Rex led the world's biggest mission to the North Pole, an expedition involving 300 scientists from 20 countries. The expedition returned to Germany in October after 389 days drifting through the North Pole, bringing home devastating proof of a dying Arctic Ocean and warnings of ice-free summers in just decades. The $170 million expedition also brought back 150 terabytes of data and more than 1,000 ice samples.
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Irreversible Warming Tipping Point May Have Been Triggered: Arctic Mission Chief

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  • by Zak3056 ( 69287 ) on Tuesday June 15, 2021 @09:07AM (#61489222) Journal

    To repeat myself from a previous article:

    So, if we're saying "this is unstoppable" can we finally move to the "how do we mitigate the inevitable changes" stage rather than the "how can we best use the looming changes to increase our political and economic power" bit y'all have been stuck on for the last couple of decades?

    Or is the doom screaming by people who fly around on private jets to talk about how everyone other than them needs to live the lifestyle of a character in a Dickens novel just going to ratchet up even further?

    • by DarkOx ( 621550 ) on Tuesday June 15, 2021 @09:14AM (#61489244) Journal

      Unfortunately we are going to get more of the same. Take the G7 meeting for example. Its all 'discussions' at the top levels and than a mess of policy wonks shuffling paper back and forth. Its literally probably the best example of the type of work our telecommuting tools can deliver a good experience for.

      Yet 1000s of people probably traveled across the EU and over oceans - so they could give plebs a lecture on decolonization.

      Its plain apparent to anyone watching their actual actions the degree of fucks given by any of the current G7 heads of state on issues of climate, freedom, national security, religious tolerance, the pandemic, wealth gap - is DIRECTLY proportional to their ability to personally insulate themselves from the consequences of their policy.

      • by DarkOx ( 621550 )

        decolonization - should have been decarbonization

        • by Salgak1 ( 20136 )

          If you de-carbonize the G7. . . .what do you do with the REST of the bodies ????

          Oh, you mean de-carbonize the ECONOMIES, not the Spokesmodels.

          Nevermind. . . (grin)

          • by DarkOx ( 621550 )

            I like the way you think! Can go ahead and do the former. I am not to worries about the rest of the bodies - it mostly be water, which would probably be vaporized as a side effect of the decarbonization process anyway.

    • Re: (Score:2, Insightful)

      by Virtucon ( 127420 )

      it's to generate FUD, making people panic and forcing things that create new paradigms of wealth generation for themselves. These are also the same people who fly to Davos each year in $20m+ private jets. #ThinkAboutIt

    • by Geoffrey.landis ( 926948 ) on Tuesday June 15, 2021 @09:25AM (#61489304) Homepage

      So, if we're saying "this is unstoppable" ...

      Whoa, whoa there! The summary said "This may have reached a tipping point." Nothing about "this is unstoppable."

      This may be a tipping point, but "may be" also implies "may not be". And if it is, it is one of many.

      That's what I hate about the public discourse about climate change, people jump to catastrophe. Nobody wants to hear about a slow disaster; it has to be urgent to get attention.

      The longer we delay in dealing with it, the more severe the problem will be. But it's not "if we haven't acted by now, it's too late." It's never "too" late, it's just the later it is, the more severe it is.

      can we finally move to the "how do we mitigate the inevitable changes" stage

      OK, I'll agree with you there. Changes are inevitable (what's not inevitable is how severe). And it's worth looking at how to deal with these inevitable changes.

      But it's not an either/or. We can talk about dealing with the changes, and also talk about how mitigate the severity.

      rather than the "how can we best use the looming changes to increase our political and economic power" bit y'all have been stuck on for the last couple of decades?

      The libertarian fringe is certain that everything is a conspiracy to increase "power" by the government, but really, it isn't. The libertarian fringe is making up draconian proposals that are not actually being proposed. Really, you should go back to protesting the income tax if you want to talk about government power.

      Or is the doom screaming by people who fly around on private jets to talk about how everyone other than them needs to live the lifestyle of a character in a Dickens novel just going to ratchet up even further?

      Again, straw man. Nobody is proposing that... other than the oil companies saying "we'll kill our standard of living if we deal with climate change!"

      • by tempest69 ( 572798 ) on Tuesday June 15, 2021 @10:00AM (#61489398) Journal
        I hate that the conversation is all about tipping points and deadlines.
        I just isn't
        Environmentalism is now the story of an obese diabetic man that throws a tantrum if you suggest that either an occasional salad or fewer cigarettes might be a good lifestyle change.
        • by sound+vision ( 884283 ) on Tuesday June 15, 2021 @04:35PM (#61491078) Journal

          There are good reasons to believe there are tipping points, methane bombs for example. Obviously it's best not to hit those if it can be avoided. Deadlines are goals, which are a good thing to set when you're trying to accomplish a task.

          The problem with the conversation isn't either of those things. The problem is when you look at them with a fatalistic attitude [slashdot.org], taking it to mean we should just deal with the destruction, instead of correcting the core issue to what degree is still possible.

          You mostly see that attitude from people who were previously AGW deniers. (See link.) They start from the ass-end, with the unshakeable belief that reducing carbon emissions is a bad thing or impossible, as they've been conditioned to think. They work up a solution that isn't dissonant with that. If denial isn't working anymore, well then climate destruction is just inevitable and we have to "deal with it" while continuing unlimited carbon emissions. (I wonder what that means anyway. Move everyone to a mountaintop, grow crops on the moon? Accept persistent worldwide famine until enough people die? They usually don't think that far into it, certainly the poster I linked to didn't.)

          Environmentalists generally use the tipping points and deadlines as a means to encourage swift action, not as a fatalistic give-up. Not to say that there aren't problems in "the environmental movement", like hardline anti-nuke guys, but those guys are in the margins among the great mass who recognize that we need to cut emissions however possible.

      • by Junta ( 36770 ) on Tuesday June 15, 2021 @10:12AM (#61489452)

        To further your point, it's not a boolean "things are just fine" or "ok, we screwed it up, no difference if we dump 0 or quadrillions of tons of CO2 into the air".

        I hate the 'point of no return' and 'tipping point' rhetoric. We need to curtail our screwing things up best we can, regardless of some arbitrary 'tipping point' nonsense.

        The libertarian fringe is certain that everything is a conspiracy to increase "power" by the government, but really, it isn't.

        Agreed. If anything, I would complain that there is a lot of empty talk without the political will to *do* anything. I think some fossil fuel companies have told the workforce they screwed over that it's all the government's fault, when the larger global economic situation causes them to throw their employees under the bus to chase more profitable things.

        Again, straw man. Nobody is proposing that...

        Exactly. In fact, it is likely that we have *more* resources and economic activity to work with as this goes. A focus on fuel efficiency standards translates to the average person having to buy less fuel, meaning they can drive more or redirect their spend elsewhere. 'Green' energy sources may ultimately be supremely abundant energy, and not present as daunting a logistical challenge as moving around carbon fuels. You want us to stop meddling in the middle east so much? Not caring about petroleum would be a very big step in that direction.

      • If your brakes fail you can choose to ease off the gas and crash gently, or stamp on it and go out in a fireball.
    • by Gravis Zero ( 934156 ) on Tuesday June 15, 2021 @09:33AM (#61489328)

      So, if we're saying "this is unstoppable" can we finally move to the "how do we mitigate the inevitable changes" stage

      You may not like it but... the best way to mitigate the changes are to cut our pollution to zero and start pulling CO2 out of the air. This will maximally retard the changes and give everyone time to move or adapt. If we can pull CO2 out of the air fast enough (requires MANY capture sites) then we can actually bring the changes to a virtual standstill.

      "how can we best use the looming changes to increase our political and economic power"

      Do you think slowing pollution as much as possible is about political and economic power? If so then you have misconstrued the message.

      • by pr0nbot ( 313417 )

        "Tipping point" suggests runaway change, in which case stopping or reversing the change is no longer an option.

        Given that we don't know for sure if we've reached a tipping point, though, I think it's reasonable to assume we haven't and continue efforts to make sure we don't, as you describe.

        • by Layzej ( 1976930 )

          "Tipping point" suggests runaway change.

          It's a pretty poorly defined term. In this case the claim is: "The tipping point for irreversible global warming may have already been triggered"

          That's almost trivially true. The climate change we've already experienced will be with us (effectively) forever. The only thing we're doing by dropping emissions to net 0 is preventing further climate change.

      • You may not like it but... the best way to mitigate the changes are to cut our pollution to zero and start pulling CO2 out of the air.

        How do you know this? I'd like to follow the science.

    • So, if we're saying "this is unstoppable" can we finally move to the "how do we mitigate the inevitable changes" stage rather than the "how can we best use the looming changes to increase our political and economic power" bit y'all have been stuck on for the last couple of decades?

      We still need to stop or slow the changes to the greatest extent possible, which are not about increasing economic and political power. If we've passed an irreversible tipping point then we just have to fall back and work on preventing the next one, not admit defeat and find ways to adapt to an ever-worsening hellworld we can't be assed to prevent. What we might need to do differently is be more open to (more obvious forms of intentional) geoengineering.

      talk about how everyone other than them needs to live the lifestyle of a character in a Dickens novel

      Citation needed. If anything the problem is that they're telling everyone that they need to live the lifestyle of a 10%er, while at the same time our economies are increasing inequality and making it harder for everyone to afford an EV and a solar roof.

    • People *have been* talking about mitigation for decades now, in some cases cities are looking at things like multi-billion dollar tide gates. Or moving water-intensive industries to new locations and cutting off some water uses. It's all very expensive, which was the main economic reason to reverse or slow down climate change: that would be cheaper in the long term than trying to adapt to the *rate* of change under the status quo.

      You might not like change, but ignoring the need for it only means you get some good options taken off the table and other bad ones forced on you.

      • by HiThere ( 15173 )

        I'm not convinced those "tidal gates" are worthwhile. What they should be doing is reconstructing the shorelines into things that don't mind being flooded occasionally, or even being underwater, and withdrawing the city to higher ground. Yeah, do *some* mitigation to protect really expensive things that have already been built, but no new building except for water friendly structured within 10 vertical feet of the water level. (Perhaps a bit more. Perhaps the rational thing to do is to rebuild the city

    • Who says we have a problem in need of solutions?

        - Saskatchewan man

    • by eth1 ( 94901 ) on Tuesday June 15, 2021 @11:55AM (#61489960)

      To repeat myself from a previous article:

      So, if we're saying "this is unstoppable" can we finally move to the "how do we mitigate the inevitable changes" stage rather than the "how can we best use the looming changes to increase our political and economic power" bit y'all have been stuck on for the last couple of decades?

      Or is the doom screaming by people who fly around on private jets to talk about how everyone other than them needs to live the lifestyle of a character in a Dickens novel just going to ratchet up even further?

      IMO, short of a breakthrough in human immortality, we can't seriously start fixing long-term problems like this until the impact is only 20-30 years out. Until the rich and powerful are facing a serious impact to their own lives, they don't care, and they're happy to maintain the status quo, since they'll be dead by the time it's a "real" problem.

      I think it was David Brin in his book "Earth" who said that humanity is more or less doomed to be on the brink of disaster forever, because that's what it takes to get people motivated enough to do something. IOW, scientific advancement will always be focused on profit until it's an emergency.

    • by ahodgson ( 74077 )

      It's not a binary choice. 5 degrees is much worse than 3 degrees which in turn is much worse than 1.5 or 2 degrees (which personally I agree is already a done deal).

      As a Canadian I wish our politicians would be much more inclined to mitigation measures rather than virtue signalling about our emissions, though. We could stop using fossil fuels tomorrow and it would be a 1-year speed bump in terms of global warming. Whereas we could be building reservoirs and moving infrastructure away from areas that will be

    • So, if we're saying "this is unstoppable" can we finally move to the "how do we mitigate the inevitable changes" stage rather than the "how can we best use the looming changes to increase our political and economic power" bit y'all have been stuck on for the last couple of decades?

      What makes you think the two are mutually exclusive? The future economic powerhouses of the world will be those providing solutions to this problem.

      Or is the doom screaming by people who fly around on private jets to talk about how everyone other than them needs to live the lifestyle of a character in a Dickens novel just going to ratchet up even further?

      Oh fuck off. These people in their private jets through enacting policy have done more than any single person ever would. If it takes a face to face meet for them to argue out the details the result is not a net loss to the world.

  • by rsilvergun ( 571051 ) on Tuesday June 15, 2021 @09:14AM (#61489250)
    Rent is due at the end of the month. That's the problem in a nutshell. The left is the only one trying to address climate change. And the left constantly gets out maneuvered by the right. The problem is anything you do is going to put people's jobs at risk. And in most of the world if you lose your job you die in the street. Maybe you've got enough food to make it through a couple of decades but eventually it all catches up with you.

    That's what the green New Deal is supposed to be about. It's supposed to be Jobs first then addressing climate change after. It would work too. But there's a lot of existing players who do not want anything upsetting their apple carts. Try to imagine what would happen to the Middle East if the United States switched completely to renewables. Or what about those Texas oil fields that are worth trillions. What would they be worth if 80% of our power came from solar and wind and the rest from nuclear? How much would those assets devalue?
    • by kick6 ( 1081615 ) on Tuesday June 15, 2021 @10:20AM (#61489484) Homepage

      That's what the green New Deal is supposed to be about. It's supposed to be Jobs first then addressing climate change after. It would work too. But there's a lot of existing players who do not want anything upsetting their apple carts. Try to imagine what would happen to the Middle East if the United States switched completely to renewables. Or what about those Texas oil fields that are worth trillions. What would they be worth if 80% of our power came from solar and wind and the rest from nuclear? How much would those assets devalue?

      Have you actually read the green new deal? It's only 5 pages, you might want to take a look. It's not about that at all. It's about racial equity disguised as environmentalism and making sure the people that DARED work in greenhouse gas emitting industries are punished for the remainder of their now-much-shorter lives. This is why we can't make progress at the governmental level on this, nobody with any power is willing to remove the nonsense, and attack the issue and JUST the issue.

      • Re: (Score:3, Informative)

        by Anonymous Coward

        That's what the green New Deal is supposed to be about. It's supposed to be Jobs first then addressing climate change after. It would work too. But there's a lot of existing players who do not want anything upsetting their apple carts. Try to imagine what would happen to the Middle East if the United States switched completely to renewables. Or what about those Texas oil fields that are worth trillions. What would they be worth if 80% of our power came from solar and wind and the rest from nuclear? How much would those assets devalue?

        Have you actually read the green new deal? It's only 5 pages, you might want to take a look. It's not about that at all. It's about racial equity disguised as environmentalism and making sure the people that DARED work in greenhouse gas emitting industries are punished for the remainder of their now-much-shorter lives. This is why we can't make progress at the governmental level on this, nobody with any power is willing to remove the nonsense, and attack the issue and JUST the issue.

        Yeah, I've read it. It's full of nonsense. Here is one of the goals to fix the climate:

        "(E) to promote justice and equity by stopping current, preventing future, and repairing historic oppression of indigenous peoples, communities of color, migrant communities, deindustrialized communities, depopulated rural communities, the poor, low-income workers, women, the elderly, the unhoused, people with disabilities, and youth (referred to in this resolution as ‘‘frontline and vulnerable communities

      • You don't seem to understand the difference between policy and flowerly language. The Green New Deal is a broad term describing a large multi trillion dollar infrastructure plan meant to convert the United States to renewable energy in a short period of time while we revitalizing the middle class. Those five pages were just some Congress critters trying to get attention for it they don't have any actual meaning. It was literally just an attempt to start the discussion, and a multi-billion dollar right wing
    • by mad7777 ( 946676 )
      I think I must have missed a step in your chain of reasoning here.
      How did you get from "people need to eat" to your proposed solution, "let's create lots of meaningless work for everyone to do"?
      I can't speak for everyone, but personally, I don't want a job. I do want income. Preferably, from income derived from my own savings.
      • Too many people have bought into the lie poor people are told: life satisfaction comes from work.

        That's Marxist bullshit. Labor isn't intrinsically rewarding and shouldn't be a goal. Politics should work around the problem of labor instead of trying to put it front and center.

        • by mad7777 ( 946676 )
          Marxist yes.... and also axiomatic Protestant work ethic.

          No ideology can claim a monopoly on stupidity, but a proper capitalist understands that nobody ever got rich by working a day job. Save & invest in the future: become financially independent. No government program needed!

          Own, or be owned!
          • What's Marxist is making labor the organizing principle. The Protestant work ethic just primes those people for the Marxist politics.

            Protestantism preceded modern capitalism. Marxism was a reaction to industrialization and capital accumulation and so is much more relevant to our politics than 16th century religious philosophy. It's proximal and it still has major impact on how we discuss politics and class and how we legislate.

        • Too many people have bought into the lie poor people are told: life satisfaction comes from work.

          That's Marxist bullshit. Labor isn't intrinsically rewarding and shouldn't be a goal. Politics should work around the problem of labor instead of trying to put it front and center.

          Marxist? You're talking about the Protestant work ethic there.

    • by jd ( 1658 )

      There aren't many industries which are inevitably dirty (at least in the sense we're talking about) and most of those have rival industries. If there was targeted investment to clean up those that can be cleaned up and targeted subsidies to scale up cleaner options where they exist, there should be a net gain in jobs.

      It could be that this is the new green deal you refer to, I'm honestly not sure what that refers to these days, but ultimately a net loss of jobs (or indeed the actual loss of any job as oppose

    • actually, rent is due the BEGINNING of the month. You pay before you use. lIke gas in your car, you can't burn it till you buy it. There is substantially NO difference between the left and the right. They are both owned by corporations. The difference is do you want to go down with a fascist (the right) or with the warm fuzzies of inclusion and diversity (the left), while both sides take corporate payola to ruin the environment, sell out our data, build the surveillance state, sell more weapons, militari
    • by raind ( 174356 )
      Since 1977, the share of U.S. total petroleum and crude oil imports from OPEC has generally declined. In 2020, OPEC's share of U.S. total petroleum imports was about 11%, and its share of U.S. crude oil imports was 14%. Saudi Arabia, the largest OPEC exporter, was the source of 7% of U.S. total petroleum imports and 8% of U.S. crude oil imports. Saudi Arabia is also the largest source of U.S. petroleum imports from Persian Gulf countries. About 10% of U.S. total petroleum imports and 12% of U.S. crude oil i
  • Old News (Score:3, Informative)

    by vanzilar ( 195563 ) on Tuesday June 15, 2021 @09:17AM (#61489264)

    We past the tipping point in 2012.... there is some evidence we can still go back if we take this seriously.. however world governments are doing nothing so I am just watching as all of humanity destroys the earth. No one takes the issue seriously.
    This is just another event leading up to the end.

    • by Junta ( 36770 )

      I am just watching as all of humanity destroys the earth

      destroys itself is a more accurate message. The earth will be fine either way, and phrasing that sounds like we care about the 'Earth' in and of itself rather than 'Our ability to live on Earth' is part of why the message falls short in some audiences. They think saving the earth is some sort of misguided altruism rather than a self-serving interest, and mostly we are about the self-serving interests.

  • ... pun intended. We'd better find technological solutions. Just using the situation as a political weapon doesn't seem to be working. (well, not if your goal is actually reversing the warming.)
  • Decisive action was due mid-80ies. It's 2021 and we're still slow poking about. That a tipping point has been crossed its just about common knowledge with climate scientist.

    We need a global eco balance tax and real research into eco repair technologies and strategies within the decade. Anyone capable of basic math is aware of this. Sadly, most people insist on driving SUVs and eating cheap meat every day, so things aren't looking to good right now.

  • Oh, cool. Then there's nothing we can do about it.

    THAT'S NOT WHAT WE MEAN!

  • ...to sell refrigerators to the Eskimos!

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