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United States Businesses Government

California Defies Expectations of Doom, Promises Massive Tax Rebate (bloombergquint.com) 304

As California approaches the biggest state tax rebate in U.S. history, Bloomberg News co-founder Matthew A. Winkler questions its reputation as a state doomed by over-regulation and high taxes.

In fact, California "has no peers among developed economies for expanding GDP, creating jobs, raising household income, manufacturing growth, investment in innovation, producing clean energy and unprecedented wealth through its stocks and bonds." By adding 1.3 million people to its non-farm payrolls since April last year — equal to the entire workforce of Nevada — California easily surpassed also-rans Texas and New York. At the same time, California household income increased $164 billion, almost as much as Texas, Florida and Pennsylvania combined, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. No wonder California's operating budget surplus, fueled by its surging economy and capital gains taxes, swelled to a record $75 billion...

While pundits have long insisted California policies are bad for business, reality belies them. In a sign of investor demand, the weight of California companies in the benchmark S&P 500 Index increased 3 percentage points since a year ago, the most among all states, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Faith in California credit was similarly superlative, with the weight of corporate bonds sold by companies based in the state rising the most among all states, to 12.5 percentage points from 11.7 percentage points, according to the Bloomberg Barclays U.S. Corporate Bond Index. Translation: Investors had the greatest confidence in California companies during the pandemic. The most trusted measure of economic strength says California is the world-beater among democracies. The state's gross domestic product increased 21% during the past five years, dwarfing No. 2 New York (14%) and No. 3 Texas (12%), according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The gains added $530 billion to the Golden State, 30% more than the increase for New York and Texas combined and equivalent to the entire economy of Sweden.

Among the five largest economies, California outperforms the U.S., Japan and Germany with a growth rate exceeded only by China...

Corporate California also is the undisputed leader in renewable energy, with 26 companies worth $897 billion, or 36% of the U.S. industry, having reported 10% or more of their revenues derived from clean technology. No state comes close to matching the 21% of electricity derived from solar energy. Shares of these firms appreciated 282% during the past 12 months and 1,003%, 1,140% and 9,330% over two, five and 10 years, respectively, with no comparable rivals anywhere in the world, according to BloombergNEF. The same companies also increased their workforce 35% since 2019, almost tripling the rate for the rest U.S. overall and four times the global rate...

California companies invested 16% of their revenues in R&D, or their future, when the rest of the U.S. put aside just 1%...

Much has been made of the state reporting its first yearly loss in population, or 182,000 last year. Had it not been for the Trump administration preventing new visas, depriving as many as 150,000 people from moving to California from other countries annually, the 2020 outcome would have been more favorable.

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California Defies Expectations of Doom, Promises Massive Tax Rebate

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  • by SuperKendall ( 25149 ) on Saturday June 19, 2021 @05:49PM (#61502320)

    If the state is doing so well, and going to issue large rebates - why not lower taxes on people and businesses there since things are going so well?

    Wouldn't it be better to let people keep and spend money through the year, rather than having the government collect a large excess and then send some substantial amount to the people there?

    • by timeOday ( 582209 ) on Saturday June 19, 2021 @05:53PM (#61502326)
      Politically it's easy to cut taxes and hard to raise them, so I suppose keeping them nominally higher makes it easier to make adjust as needed.
      • Re: (Score:3, Insightful)

        Also, California is heavily dependent on income tax. When recessions hit, the tax revenue plunges. So a permanent cut is a bad idea.

        Since states can't print money or run deficits, relying on income tax is a bad idea. States should rely on sales and property tax and leave the income taxes to the Feds.

        Rather than giving a refund, California could buy back state bonds and reduce future debt payments. That would be smarter but less popular.

        • > States should rely on sales and property tax and leave the income taxes to the Feds.

          Unfortunately, anti tax crusaders nixed that in California 40 years ago. Property taxes got nuked by Prop 13, and as a proposition, it can't be touched by the state legislature. So they have little choice but to use income taxes.

          > Rather than giving a refund, California could buy back state bonds and reduce future debt payments. That would be smarter but less popular.

          They are doing exactly that, see the budget propos

    • by skam240 ( 789197 ) on Saturday June 19, 2021 @05:56PM (#61502334)

      Because a one time rebate is less costly than a full blown tax cut. Obviously they don't think it wise to permanently reduce the state's revenue stream.

      • Because a one time rebate is less costly than a full blown tax cut. Obviously they don't think it wise to permanently reduce the state's revenue stream.

        There is prior art here, when car manufacturers gave rebates on cars some years back. And it's because we can't see the future. so you lower the price via rebates, then resteor it if need be

    • by localroger ( 258128 ) on Saturday June 19, 2021 @06:04PM (#61502354) Homepage
      Contrary to what some Alzheimer's addled corporate spokestool actor once said, government is not a problem. It is the necessary solution to some problems that can't be solved any other way. Take it from someone who lives in a southern state where the government is constantly scrambling for money to do absolutely necessary shit like hurricane defence. When government is competently doing what it is supposed to be doing, people notice and don't mind paying taxes. Ask someone from Europe about that while you try to figure out your last hospital bill.
      • Re: (Score:3, Insightful)

        by Ol Olsoc ( 1175323 )

        Contrary to what some Alzheimer's addled corporate spokestool actor once said, government is not a problem. It is the necessary solution to some problems that can't be solved any other way. Take it from someone who lives in a southern state where the government is constantly scrambling for money to do absolutely necessary shit like hurricane defence. When government is competently doing what it is supposed to be doing, people notice and don't mind paying taxes. Ask someone from Europe about that while you try to figure out your last hospital bill.

        I wonder how many Texans are happy they chose their method of power production.

        Before any one gets too excited about Cali, Enron deliberately caused the power distribution problems they experienced a few years back? Everyone remember Enron?

        California has a GDP of 3.2 Trillion in 2019. If Cali was a sovereign nation, they would be the world's 5th largest economy.

        When you get your news from Fox or SkyMax, you wan't get those numbers. Many of the deep red states get a healthy chunk of Federal aid, and

      • Contrary to what some Alzheimer's addled corporate spokestool actor once said, government is not a problem.

        The Republican party, which to a person claims to hate government is showing remarkable efforts to hold onto their positions in government. Continuously demanding recounts again and again - while getting the same results, Encouragiunng people to storm the capital, and hang a Vice president who did not declare an end to democracy.

        It appears the Republican form of small government is just another one of their malicious projections.

    • Because shit happens.

      Sometimes, shit happens is good, and you end up with a massive surplus of cash.

      Sometimes, shit happens is bad, and you end up with a massive deficit of cash.

      Right now, they're in a happy shit situation. But it may not last. Couple that with the fact that states must balance their budgets, even when bad shit happens, and it makes more sense to treat this as an isolated event instead of a trend.

    • God, please, god, please save that crap for whatever red state you happen to live in.

      Yeah, businesses love low taxes and light regulation. But there's two things that they like even more: good infrastructure and a government that ACTUALLY WORKS.

      And the whole "return the money to the people" is basically weasel words for "trickle down economics" which simply doesn't work. Plain and simple. Full stop. I'm not a Tucker/Rush/Coulter/Jones moron - I actually know that MONEY DOES NOT TRICKLE DOWN. Mone
      • Re: (Score:2, Flamebait)

        by Ol Olsoc ( 1175323 )

        God, please, god, please save that crap for whatever red state you happen to live in.

        My money is on Alabama, the shining example of Far Right wing superiority

      • by djinn6 ( 1868030 )

        My money is that Texas is going to peak and then decline, while California will be going strong for generations.

        Nah, Texas will just turn blue, the same way California eventually turned blue. Private everything is great until you get hit with a $3000 power bill. Then you love the government.

        • Yeah, that could happen. It might not, though. Plenty examples of states and countries that voluntarily piss away a good situation rather than take the smart next step.
        • Except there are regulated power markets here in Texas right along side of quasi-deregulated markets, and the impact to consumers has been significant. I live in an area where I can choose my generation company and have paid anywhere from $0.055 / kWh to $0.083 / kWh which includes the $0.0349 / kWh delivery charges for the TDU and with no monthly fees. A couple miles away there's a city run power company where people have no choice and are paying $0.099 / kWh plus a $6 a month fee. About ten miles north
    • by psycho12345 ( 1134609 ) on Saturday June 19, 2021 @07:56PM (#61502660)

      Because the tax rebate is mandatory, not something they wanted to or otherwise.

      Furthermore the taxes are largely on windfalls, not on day to day operations. To give you an idea, someone making 100k a year, assuming they max a 401k, take standard deduction, and so forth, will pay around 6-7k annually in taxes. So over 40 years, they will get around to paying at most 300k in taxes.

      Someone cashes out on an IPO, makes 5 million, will pay 13.3% of everything over 1 million, so they will pay over 500k taxes in one year. So in one year they've paid more in taxes then a working profession will pay their entire working life.

      THOSE are the source of the current windfall, because California interestingly enough, DOES have a much simpler tax code, and thus it is far harder to play games (it treats all income the same), so they just get their money with less fuss.

    • Because of fiscal responsibility! Revenues rise and fall, and expenses rise and fall. California requires a rainy day fund, something a lot more red states should have. When times are good the rainy day fund is filled up, and tax rebates are given. When times aren't so good then the state dips into the rainy day fund.

      Giving back huge tax refunds and cutting tax funds in the long run is often a very bad idea. Even in the short run it can be bad. A lot of the so-called conservatives demands for cutting t

  • by Todd Knarr ( 15451 ) on Saturday June 19, 2021 @05:56PM (#61502332) Homepage

    The refrain from the pundits that California's legal climate is bad for business and that if they don't change it to be more business-friendly (and less employee-friendly and resident-friendly) they're going to see businesses going elsewhere is the same refrain we've heard before. And it always ends the same way.

    Car manufacturers constantly complain about how California's emissions regulations are too expensive to comply with and that if California keeps them the manufacturers won't be able to afford to make cars anymore. Well, the manufacturers have a simple solution available: don't make cars for sale in California. If cars meeting California's emissions requirements are really too expensive to sell profitably, the car manufacturers' balance sheets should actually be improved by dropping that market. And yet, no car manufacturer has ever even contemplated dropping the California market as unprofitable. What they really mean is it isn't as profitable for them as they'd like and they wish California would change the rules to let them make a higher profit margin, but even at the existing margin it's still too profitable for them to just abandon.

    The same with the business climate. What the pundits really mean is that the legal climate in California doesn't let businesses abuse employees and customers as much as they'd like to and they really wish California would change their rules, but California is still too large a market and too many of the employees those companies want to hire want to live in California to make it feasible for those companies to just move elsewhere.

    • Re: (Score:3, Insightful)

      by Qwertie ( 797303 )

      My impression is that California isn't business-unfriendly but rather resident-unfriendly. The Bay Area is a collection of small municipalities rather than one large one, so they compete with each other for tax dollars and would generally prefer to allow office buildings be built rather than homes, since offices pay property taxes but don't demand public services like schools and parks.

      Building housing in the Bay Area is really, really hard [reason.com]. Aside from all the stories I've heard, I noticed a night and da

      • " Then there's Prop 13, which for the last 43 years has meant that no one's property taxes can go up unless they sell their home. This discourages people from selling their property even as its value rises to astronomical heights. Bring on the Land Value Tax, says I. But it's hard to imagine passing such a law in California: it would force too many people to sell (sure, they could make a huge profit from selling, but that's true already and yet they're not selling). "

        Prop 13 means property taxes can only go

      • by jeff4747 ( 256583 ) on Saturday June 19, 2021 @07:17PM (#61502570)

        It doesn't help that there's a large group of people who don't seem to believe in the law of supply and demand: that extreme home prices have nothing to do with the housing shortage and everything to do with those blasted tech bros greedily trying to... rent an apartment, I guess?

        The reason it's so incoherent is they're well aware of supply and demand, and they have the supply. So they fight like hell to block zoning changes that would allow an increase in density.

        But "I want you to be homeless so I make more money" doesn't sound very good, especially to themselves. So they come up with whatever incoherent thing they can convince themselves is true.

        And since they own property in that small city, they get to vote in the elections for zoning board and city council. The people who would like to create cheaper housing don't live there, because they can't afford housing, so they can't vote for the zoning board and city council.

        Which means landlords and current residents dominate those elections, and a platform of "I'm gonna let people build more houses so your property values go down" isn't going to win.

        • by djinn6 ( 1868030 )

          a platform of "I'm gonna let people build more houses so your property values go down" isn't going to win.

          Couldn't have said it better myself.

          The people who would like to create cheaper housing don't live there, because they can't afford housing, so they can't vote for the zoning board and city council.

          If you're talking about renters, they actually do live in the same area as the owners. However there's simply not enough of them. And even if that wasn't the case, not all of them want their suburb to turn into an urban area.

          Of course there's also a group of people who yell very loudly about these issues who are not impacted either way themselves. They are a tiny minority outside of Twitter.

      • The problem with selling your extremely valuable house is that you still need a place to live. As long as you work in the overpriced area, you will need to buy another overpriced home.

        A lot of people in the bay area view their home as their retirement fund -they won't sell it until they are ready to retire and move somewhere cheaper. If the remote work trend holds, there may be a lot of property for sale soon.

    • by rgmoore ( 133276 )

      What they really mean is it isn't as profitable for them as they'd like and they wish California would change the rules to let them make a higher profit margin, but even at the existing margin it's still too profitable for them to just abandon.

      Which isn't even a smart argument. Yes, it's a bit more expensive to meet California emissions regulations, but it's car buyers who pay for it, not car companies. And California buyers should be happy to pay, since the damage done by air pollution is far more costly

    • California does a lot that's bad for business, but it's one of a small number of states where non-compete clauses aren't enforceable. If you're a start-up business that's invaluable because you can poach whoever you want. Like almost everything else it's a mixed bag. Some good, some bad. It's also a big state and trying to lump it all together as a single monolith is about as foolish as making broad statements about the country as a whole.
  • by marcle ( 1575627 ) on Saturday June 19, 2021 @05:57PM (#61502338)

    You should never move here, and if you already live here, I encourage you to move somewhere else. That will make it much more enjoyable for me.

  • by zephvark ( 1812804 ) on Saturday June 19, 2021 @06:15PM (#61502400)

    You know, the rolling blackouts that were "caused by deregulation", the kind of deregulation that caused electric companies to have to buy at high prices, sell at low prices, and keep power going for the government even when they didn't bother to pay their bills for six months.

    I've lived in California and, it was charming but, ungodly expensive even for a one-bedroom rental. I pay about a third of that now for a two-bedroom with electricity that's only gone out due to a hurricane.

  • by rsilvergun ( 571051 ) on Saturday June 19, 2021 @06:36PM (#61502446)
    in taxes [bloomberg.com] if you're middle class.

    It's almost as if trickle down economics is back, has been for a while and we just kind a pretended it wasn't because reasons.
  • by algaeman ( 600564 ) on Saturday June 19, 2021 @06:55PM (#61502498)
    I suspect immigration numbers would not have been particularly good in 2019-2020 regardless of who was president. There was no need to mention the orange.
    • by djinn6 ( 1868030 )

      How do you know it's not even higher in good years? A denied visa is a denied immigrant. People don't pay $200 to apply for a visa because they felt like it.

  • by RitchCraft ( 6454710 ) on Saturday June 19, 2021 @07:00PM (#61502510)
    ... for California.
  • Home Destroyed = Never Had House
  • They also have:

    some of the highest taxes in the country
    a very high cost of living
    homes that are unaffordable for average citizens
    an enormous homeless population
    etc...

    And with all that regulation, high fuel costs, high electricity costs, etc....they still cannot maintain a reliable power grid and don't appear to be making much headway with their water management issues.

    • by godrik ( 1287354 )

      an enormous homeless population

      People keep on mentioning that California has a high homeless population as a negative thing. But it may not be the negative thing that you think it is.

      1/ If I were homeless, I would definitely go to California. If I am to live in the streets, I'd rather be in a place where the weather is nice. It's too cold in winter to be in the midwest and north east. It's to hot in the summer to be in the south. Once you have removed all the places you don't want to be in the street year long, you'll end up in a place l

  • It will destroy their alternate reality bubble.

  • a rebate comes from paid taxes, if you paid less than that then you get less. so it helps the poor the least.

    or are they just sending out checks?

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