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Greenhouse Gas Emissions Must Peak Within 4 Years, Says Leaked UN Report (theguardian.com) 462

An anonymous reader shares a report from The Guardian: Global greenhouse gas emissions must peak in the next four years, coal and gas-fired power plants must close in the next decade and lifestyle and behavioral changes will be needed to avoid climate breakdown, according to the leaked draft of a report from the world's leading authority on climate science. The leak is from the forthcoming third part of the landmark report by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, the first part of which was published on Monday, warning of unprecedented changes to the climate, some of them irreversible. The document, called the sixth assessment report, is divided into three parts: the physical science of climate change; the impacts and ways of reducing human influence on the climate.

Part three is not scheduled to be released before next March, but a small group of scientists decided to leak the draft via the Spanish branch of Scientist Rebellion, an offshoot of the Extinction Rebellion movement. It was first published by the journalist Juan Bordera in the Spanish online magazine CTXT. Bordera told the Guardian that the leak reflected the concern of some of those involved in drawing up the document that their conclusions could be watered down before publication in 2022. Governments have the right to make changes to the "summary for policymakers."

The top 10% of emitters globally, who are the wealthiest 10%, contribute between 36 and 45% of emissions, which is 10 times as much as the poorest 10%, who are responsible for only about three to 5%, the report finds. "The consumption patterns of higher income consumers are associated with large carbon footprints. Top emitters dominate emissions in key sectors, for example the top 1% account for 50% of emissions from aviation," the summary says. The report underlines the lifestyle changes that will be necessary, particularly in rich countries and among the wealthy globally. Refraining from over-heating or over-cooling homes, walking and cycling, cutting air travel and using energy-consuming appliances less can all contribute significantly to the reductions in emissions needed, the report finds.

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Greenhouse Gas Emissions Must Peak Within 4 Years, Says Leaked UN Report

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  • That's nice... (Score:5, Insightful)

    by DrLudicrous ( 607375 ) on Thursday August 12, 2021 @10:40PM (#61686547) Homepage
    ...but totally not going to happen, despite best intentions. We need to get a lot more serious about ways to dump heat and remove greenhouse gases, in addition to sequestration via nature and reduction of emissions. Even if all the 1st world consumers changed their habits accordingly, there are a lot of rising economies that are still playing catch-up and looking to cheap energy sources.
    • Re:That's nice... (Score:5, Insightful)

      by OrangeTide ( 124937 ) on Friday August 13, 2021 @12:05AM (#61686677) Homepage Journal

      We were given the option 30 years ago to do this the easy way or the hard way.

      Now we're given an option to do this the expensive way or the hard way.

      In 5 years we'll not notice much difference. In 50 years we'll have the option of a one world government or the hard way.

      I'll go to my grave assuming we chose the hard way.

      • Re:That's nice... (Score:5, Interesting)

        by gweihir ( 88907 ) on Friday August 13, 2021 @12:50AM (#61686719)

        We were given the option 30 years ago to do this the easy way or the hard way.

        Now we're given an option to do this the expensive way or the hard way.

        In 5 years we'll not notice much difference. In 50 years we'll have the option of a one world government or the hard way.

        I'll go to my grave assuming we chose the hard way.

        I second that. If fact-based strategic planning is needed to avoid a really big catastrophe, humanity always choses the catastrophe because the average person cannot even imagine what might be next year.

        • Re: That's nice... (Score:5, Insightful)

          by e3m4n ( 947977 ) on Friday August 13, 2021 @07:19AM (#61687367)
          We cant even all agree on something as simple and low cost as vaccination. Not just in the USA, but in nearly all the countries that are not struggling with supplies. I just read an article yesterday about vaccines in various countries that will expire in Sep/Oct and they will wind up tossing millions of doses. There is zero chance the entire planet will agree to cut emissions. Anyone thinking otherwise needs to wake up and smell the vaccine so to speak. The UN report cited turning off power plants. That means reduced available power. That likely means energy rations. Good luck getting half the people currently talking about what 'Needs' to happen to give up their crypto mining. It all sounds well and good until people get asked to give up something that personally affects them.
        • by Brain-Fu ( 1274756 ) on Friday August 13, 2021 @09:51AM (#61687983) Homepage Journal

          I may or may not make personal sacrifices for the good of the environment.
          And, "everyone else" may or may not make personal sacrifices for the good of the environment.

          This creates a 2x2 matrix of possibilities, with the results as follows:

          I sacrifice + everyone else sacrifices = climate saved
          I don't sacrifice + everyone else sacrifices = climate saved
          I sacrifice + nobody else sacrifices = climate destroyed
          I don't sacrifice + nobody else sacrifices = climate destroyed

          So, it is clear from this analysis that my individual sacrifices make no difference. The determining factor is entirely in "everyone else's" court. Since making the sacrifice is burdensome to me, and doesn't actually matter in the long run, it makes no sense for me to actually make sacrifices.

          It makes perfect sense for me to encourage "everyone else" to make sacrifices, but there is no gain (and significant loss) in me making the sacrifices myself.

          Fix this problem of incentives, and people will make the necessary sacrifices. Leave this problem unfixed, and we will see that most people are, at their cores, selfish bastards, and the world is doomed.

      • Re:That's nice... (Score:5, Interesting)

        by IdanceNmyCar ( 7335658 ) on Friday August 13, 2021 @01:44AM (#61686811)

        It took me a long time to realize this "50 years" truth. Eco-fascism and eco-socialism are something I would of never considered myself in support of but now seem the only way.

        I don't think it's 50 years though. It's 20 to 30 and it's clear in 5 years we won't have implemented either the expensive way or the hard way in any significant matter, so we are essentially going to end up with pure civilization collapse or eco-fascism.

        • Its not one or the other. Market incentives could in fact solve this as long as government is given enough power to prevent market actors from externalizing pollution costs onto society in general. Once the true cost of damage and clean up is factored into the price of something like a plastic bottle or ICE vehicle then the problem solves itself.
    • Yeah, although we absolutely can NOT let that be an excuse to do nothing.

      Really the solution is just trees. Billions of them. If it where up to me, I'd turn the entirity of australias outback deserts in to forest and you'd end up with a massive carbon sink big enough to save the world (and potentially give habitat for about 2 billion more humans). That probably won't be happenning anytime soon. It'd be the biggest macroengineering project in history by an order of magnitudes, and it would certainly have opp

      • Re:That's nice... (Score:4, Informative)

        by DamnOregonian ( 963763 ) on Friday August 13, 2021 @04:51AM (#61687085)
        2 billion trees wouldn't even scratch the mountain of carbon we'd have to remove at this point.
        We'd have to plant 1.8 billion trees a year just to soak up what we're putting up there right now. That's 60 trees per second we need to plant, just to keep up. That, on top of what it would take to drop the CO2 PPM back down to ~300 or so... No. Trees aren't gonna fix this.
        • Re:That's nice... (Score:4, Interesting)

          by Jzanu ( 668651 ) on Friday August 13, 2021 @05:02AM (#61687095)
          Very true. Planting rates for trees would be restrictive, and so would their growth periods. The solution I've considered lately is that biotechnology is the key; that a revolution in genetic engineering of algae will be required to allow it to feed on the methane and carbon in the air, and deposit it as a fixed waste product. If we could then create a fuel from that waste product, we could leave the rest in the ground and at least create a new neutral state for emissions. Then, if the algae could be given news habitats and farmed it could reduce the circulating levels of both and restore the climate to its idyllic state.
          • Couldn't agree more.
            I imagine when we decide to finally start looking for active solutions, some kind of bioreactor is going to be the way we fix this fucking mess. There's a lot of sunlight in the world, and algae make great slaves.
        • Re:That's nice... (Score:5, Insightful)

          by F.Ultra ( 1673484 ) on Friday August 13, 2021 @06:29AM (#61687253)
          And on top of that, if it did work then people would be just like "problem fixed so now we can emit even more co2".
        • 2 billion trees wouldn't even scratch the mountain of carbon we'd have to remove at this point. We'd have to plant 1.8 billion trees a year just to soak up what we're putting up there right now. That's 60 trees per second we need to plant, just to keep up. That, on top of what it would take to drop the CO2 PPM back down to ~300 or so... No. Trees aren't gonna fix this.

          And as soon as the trees die, guess where the carbon goes? Either fast via fire, or slow via good old rot. Trees are carbon neutral.

    • Re: (Score:2, Insightful)

      by b0s0z0ku ( 752509 )
      Infertility virus. Reduce fertility in those economies by 75%.
    • Re:That's nice... (Score:5, Insightful)

      by Freischutz ( 4776131 ) on Friday August 13, 2021 @04:16AM (#61687053)

      ...but totally not going to happen, despite best intentions. We need to get a lot more serious about ways to dump heat and remove greenhouse gases, in addition to sequestration via nature and reduction of emissions. Even if all the 1st world consumers changed their habits accordingly, there are a lot of rising economies that are still playing catch-up and looking to cheap energy sources.

      The thing about the so called '3rd. world' is that they don't have much money, so when wind and solar become the cheapest option ... oh look! they are the cheapest option ... that's what these countries will ... scratch that ... are investing in. Blaming CO2 emissions on the so called '3rd. world' countries by using the "if all the rich countries brought carbon emissions down to 0 it wouldn't matter" argument is asinine. What matters is the level of industrialisation not whether a country is 1st., 2nd, or 3rd world. Between them the industrialised countries, EU27 25%, the US 14% and China 30% produce 69% of the world's carbon emissions. Poor countries don't give a crap about burning coal to own the libs, that's a US thing. Case in point, Africa: https://ourworld.unu.edu/en/re... [unu.edu]

    • Re: (Score:2, Insightful)

      by MrL0G1C ( 867445 )

      I've been modded troll just for pointing out gas central heating and gas cooking need to end. Most people don't want to compromise their lifestyles one iota, basically we're completely fucked and will likely see 5+ degrees of warming, all kind of tipping points will pass and global heating will cause huge methane releases from land and sea.

      The Atlantic conveyor belt has slowed a lot and is said to be weak, it may be our saviour (long term), it could switch off and cause an ice-age. I bet the climate modelle

      • by HiThere ( 15173 )

        Some of them *have* factored that in. They were dismissed by governments as alarmist. There's a reason this report was leaked before the governments watered it down as the did the last two (at least).

  • No way (Score:5, Interesting)

    by hdyoung ( 5182939 ) on Thursday August 12, 2021 @10:41PM (#61686551)
    in hell that time frame is going to happen.

    As far as preventing AGW, we blew it as a species. Its gonna get VERY ugly before we take it seriously.

    Dont wanna listen to the engineers? Fine, deal with it when your buildings fall over. Dont wanna listen to the climate scientists? Fine, deal with the unpredictable weather, rapid environmental change and everything else that comes with it. We could have avoided this. The cost would have been a few percent of global GDP. We just dint wanna.

    Im sure that half our population will find some way to blame george soros while the deadly heat forces them to flee towards the poles. Climate deniers incoming in 3..2..1..
    • by rsilvergun ( 571051 ) on Thursday August 12, 2021 @11:45PM (#61686649)
      Our ruling class wouldn't allow it and we're not advanced enough as a species to do away with the ruling class. It's not such an easy thing to do. Money is powered and money accumulates across generations. Add to that fixed beliefs taught in childhood that are very difficult to overcome.
      • by gweihir ( 88907 )

        I do not really see the "ruling class" as the problem. It seems to be a general problem that only the 10% or so independent thinkers are able to understand what longer term predictions actually mean. The average person (whether "ruling class" or not) cannot understand a prediction for the next 5 years. Hell, a majority cannot even predict and then plan to the end of the month.

        • by 2TecTom ( 311314 )

          If you don't see the ruling class as the problem then you aren't looking. Just who do you think is making the 'big' decisions? Classism is the root problem that keeps the powerful from being accountable and therefore responsible.The lack of oversight is like little kids having a party cause mom and dad are away.

          Wake up people. the party is over.

        • Considering that about 90% of the people are actually just doing what they're being told because they lack the time, mental faculties, will or ability to accept personal failure to actually consider the information available, reflect and come to a conclusion, the problem is indeed "following orders".

          And when you spent an eternity discrediting science because it keeps telling people what's bad for your business, well, what do you expect people to believe?

        • Has been studied and it's been found to be largely linked to poverty. Property that is completely unnecessary and has been for about 50 years. The best known study is that they found more affluent children can show significantly more restraint. E.g. if you promise a kid three cookies if they wait half an hour before eating one cookie the better off financially the kid is the more likely they are to hold off on eating the cookie. This is research that just proved something that's obvious. I saw this in my k
      • by dddux ( 3656447 )

        That ruling class will also manage to survive no matter what happens. They could move underground or something, maybe even into space, perhaps like in that film "Elysium". The biggest problem will be for the rest 99% to survive, live decent lives without droughts, famine, drinking water, high food prices etc.

        It is a really sad situation, and the 99% are too distracted to see what's going on and to do something about it. There should be global protests against the further profit-chasing and doing everything

    • It's worse than you think. According to the report, in order for it to happen:

      "A shift to diets with a higher share of plant-based protein in regions with excess consumption of calories and animal-source food can lead to substantial reductions in emissions"

      You don't need to exactly be vegetarian, just get a lot more plant-based protein.

      • That's easier than you might imagine, it would already have an incredible impact if we stopped subsidizing livestock farming. The price of meat would about double and you'd see an immediate shift in purchasing habits.

    • Re: (Score:2, Insightful)

      by gweihir ( 88907 )

      On the plus side, Humanity will have a big die-off. I expect something like 20...90% of the species. That should make it amply clear to the rest to not screw up in this fashion again.

      • by k2r ( 255754 )

        There are multiple tipping points on that way and 90% of us dying will likely not bring back the climate we‘re used to in any timespan that matters for civilization.

        • by gweihir ( 88907 )

          There are multiple tipping points on that way and 90% of us dying will likely not bring back the climate we‘re used to in any timespan that matters for civilization.

          Indeed. The nice climate we still have will not come back. But a part of the human race may find a way to survive. The interesting thing will be whether we will be able to maintain a technologically advanced society or not. "In this fashion" did refer to ignoring severe global problems just because it takes a while for them to manifest.

    • Buildings falling over? You aren't serious, are you?

  • by XArtur0 ( 5079833 ) on Thursday August 12, 2021 @10:57PM (#61686577)

    [List of Photovoltaic Power Stations] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/... [wikipedia.org]
    -2,245 MW
    -57 km^2

    [Laguna Verde Nuclear Power Station] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/... [wikipedia.org]
    -1,620 MW
    -A warehouse in Mexico

    Imagine wasting 57 square kilometers of land for a yield that is marginally more than a General Electric nuclear power plant commissioned in the early 90's.

    Besides, we must not ignore the elephant in the room, china will never agree to reduce their emissions, and they are the single worst polluter (if you get past their propaganda numbers). Do not buy Chinese products where possible. Make companies move their factories to countries that actually have sustainability laws.

    • by ShanghaiBill ( 739463 ) on Thursday August 12, 2021 @11:13PM (#61686601)

      china will never agree to reduce their emissions

      China is installing more wind and solar than any other country.

      China has almost as many EVs as America and Europe combined.

      EV use by country [wikipedia.org]

      they are the single worst polluter

      China has about half of America's per capita CO2 emissions.

    • by h33t l4x0r ( 4107715 ) on Thursday August 12, 2021 @11:44PM (#61686647)
      The majority of China emissions is export manufacturing. So we don't need to ask them to stop so much as stop demanding they continue.
      • by k2r ( 255754 )

        Very much this. A large amount of the western countries CO2 emission has been moved to China. So we just have to change what we order and to really check if it is really produced in a less polluting way.

        Everyone I know who is working in any business that has rules to lower pollution has told me stories how those rules are secretly broken. We make those rules so that they can be broken and it‘s an open secret.
        Related to this are taxes. We make laws so that they can be circumvented or broken and then we

    • How much and how fast can you ramp up nuclear, which in any case only addresses the electricity problem?

      I seem to remember that there's limited manufacturing capacity for pressure vessels, and the plants are time consuming to build.

      Every plant that does get built improves our situation but can it be decisive?

      • I‘m all for renewable energy be ause I don‘t trust operators cutting corners.

        But if we somehow manage to jump start building thorium reactors in a way similar we did with Covid vaccines, building multiple systems in parallel, knowing that some systems may not be successful, that may be one thing that helps.

        It would need to be tightly controlled in a nin-corruptible, we‘d have to very pragmatically agree about nuclear waste facilities in multiple areas to avoid NIMBY and we‘d need to

    • Great idea. Time to find a location for that nuke plant.

      Where do you live again?

  • by swell ( 195815 ) <jabberwock@poetic.com> on Thursday August 12, 2021 @11:06PM (#61686595)

    My anecdotal observation is that many ordinary people are taking action to protect the environment. In support of that, I note that Californians have reduced their water usage substantially in the last decade without pressure from government.

    If this altruistic behavior exists elsewhere, there is hope.

    • Individual action can't solve a problem this large anymore than it could win world war II. It's going to require collective action and that action has to be done in spite and in opposition to our ruling class.
    • Californians could reduce water use by way more than they are now. But most wont.

      After all the droughts in California over the last 40 years the locals know that if they don't cut back a bit on their own the state will enforce water restrictions that will have far more impact on them than if they cut back just enough to avoid the harsh rationing.

      My view may be cynical but I have found that the surest way to get the average person to conserve a resource on their own is to have the looming threat of even wor

  • by Anonymouse Cowtard ( 6211666 ) on Thursday August 12, 2021 @11:33PM (#61686633) Homepage
    At least we were warned
  • ... for her dogs.

    Yep, she lives alone - divorced, kids left home... but she *needed* an SUV so she could take the dogs out.
    But not an electric vehicle, oh no, a Diesel one.

    This is the HUGE problem we face, that people still just don't get the extreme challenges they are going to face in just a few years.
    Ask those in the USA and Europe, battling with fires - these relatively affluent, formerly relatively safe regions - now caught up in climate breakdown.

    The threat has grown from mainly impacting the world's

    • by Jzanu ( 668651 )
      The issue with the ideal fascism as solution is that the operation of such a government would not be able to maintain itself against creeping corruption that destroys any and all mandates that were used to excuse its creation. If you assume an output, sure it can be attractive, but viewed as a process it is unstable and inappropriate. There is very likely a mixed role for it, where social democracies have to accept the need to enforce societal good against sects that have no other impact except to kill peop
  • Now that we know that's not going to happen....
    • by gweihir ( 88907 )

      Interesting times. _Unusually_ interesting ones that will be slow to creep up on us, but will not go away for an exceptionally long time.

  • In conclusion (Score:4, Insightful)

    by Rumagent ( 86695 ) on Friday August 13, 2021 @12:57AM (#61686733)
    We're fucked
  • ... the leaked draft of a report

    Can't wait to read the watered down approved for public release by the myriad of diplomats trying to protect their countries and screw over their political enemies.

    Its probably going to be hilarious.

  • by Canberra1 ( 3475749 ) on Friday August 13, 2021 @01:45AM (#61686815)
    Energy efficiency is obtained via collective good. Yet every damn law is working against it. Take tower apartments. Once you had communal laundry, communal central heating, communal hot water, even a communal car-pool. Now everyone has a smaller less efficient aircon , because of billing and or legal risks.You COULD place a low tech depleted uranium heater in the basement. No movement here. You could have Dubai water pond cooling - but hey, that would cut nasty cheap highrise construction out. Nuclear power plants are the only baseload option in many places. Believe me when China is working flat out to do this, hating every coal plant coming online. That just proves wind/solar/batteries are not a realistic option yet. Nuclear, or lower living standards (rich people excluded). Pick one.
  • The apocalypse has been just around the corner for so long that it's hard to take it seriously. I mean, is it worth giving up steak, bacon, and The Internet so that a bunch of scientists and worry warts can sleep easy?

    These people have been whining ever since man came down from the trees/caves, and the apocalypse still hasn't shown. Sure they may be right this time, but what if they aren't? What makes today different, because they have data?

    What if the poor half of the population vanished? Would that work?

    • I think it would be more environmental friendly if the rich half of the population vanished. The carbon footprint of some kid in rags sitting on a dump is negligible.

    • The derp can wait (Score:4, Interesting)

      by Uberbah ( 647458 ) on Friday August 13, 2021 @04:44AM (#61687079)

      The apocalypse has been just around the corner for so long that it's hard to take it seriously.

      Apocalypse shmapocalypse. Climate change has been costing the US alone hundreds of billions each year. Or did you think all the record droughts, forest fires, floods and hurricanes came with zero costs?

      I mean, is it worth giving up steak, bacon, and The Internet so that a bunch of scientists and worry warts can sleep easy?

      The only people who would see a reduction in lifestyle from mitigating climate change would be the shareholders of weapons dealers and fossil fool companies. Everyone else would see a dramatic rise in their standard of living from the greatest jobs boom in the history of the human race.

      What if the poor half of the population vanished? Would that work?

      Your arrogant western ass uses 30 times the amount of resources as a person in a developing country. How about *you* disappear.

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