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Earth Power United States

3 Degrees Warmer, with Twice as Many 100-Degree Days: How Climate Change Will Affect Texas (texastribune.org) 218

The Texas Tribune (an Austin-based non-profit digital news site) reports that climate change "has made the Texas heat worse, with less relief as nighttime temperatures warm, a report from the state's climatologist published Thursday found." Climate data also show that the state is experiencing extreme rainfall — especially in eastern Texas — bigger storm surges as seas rise along the Gulf Coast and more flooding from hurricanes strengthened by a warming ocean, the report says. Those trends are expected to accelerate in the next 15 years, according to the report, which analyzes extreme weather risks for the state and was last updated in 2019. The report was funded in part by Texas 2036, a nonpartisan economic policy nonprofit group named for the state's upcoming bicentennial.

The average annual temperature in Texas is expected to be 3 degrees warmer by 2036 than the average of the 1950s, the report found. The number of 100-degree days is expected to nearly double compared with 2000-2018, especially in urban areas. "From here on out, it's going to be very unusual that we ever have a year as mild as a typical year during the 20th century," said John Nielsen-Gammon, the Texas state climatologist who authored the report. "Just about all of them are going to be warmer."

A hotter Texas will threaten public health, squeeze the state's water supply, strain the electric grid and push more species toward extinction, experts told The Texas Tribune...

The entire baseline of temperatures in the state has shifted upward — a trend that is likely to continue to cause problems for the state's aging infrastructure, experts said. "I was surprised at how strong the upward trend was in the coldest temperatures of the summer," Nielsen-Gammon said. While global temperature analysis had already shown that trend, he said, it is now very clearly happening on the local level in Texas. Even this year, which was considered a mild year because Texas didn't see temperatures above 100 degrees in much of the state, Nielsen-Gammon said nighttime temperatures stayed warm enough to put 2021 in the top 20% of years with the hottest summer nights on record.

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3 Degrees Warmer, with Twice as Many 100-Degree Days: How Climate Change Will Affect Texas

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  • by walterbyrd ( 182728 ) on Saturday October 09, 2021 @10:40AM (#61875039)

    Frankly, the batting average of such predictions is not great.

    • by drinkypoo ( 153816 ) <drink@hyperlogos.org> on Saturday October 09, 2021 @01:26PM (#61875531) Homepage Journal

      Sure, things are worse than they were guessed they'd be by this point

    • The Texas legislature has a plan to pray the climate change away.
    • Frankly, the batting average of such predictions is not great.

      So you intend business as normal, until the facts like your home being flooded or your crops failing provide sufficient evidence. But by then, it is too late.

    • by AmiMoJo ( 196126 )

      It's not a binary right/wrong, it's really just a question of what degree of warming Texas is going to experience.

      Even the most optimistic predictions suggest that it's going to be pretty bad.

  • Because if you do not believe it Google abs Youtube will take all your money and stop paying you.

  • by davide marney ( 231845 ) on Saturday October 09, 2021 @11:09AM (#61875137) Journal

    Here is the data for DFW over the past 100 years. There just isn't an upward trend that I can see: https://www.weather.gov/fwd/d1... [weather.gov]

    • When talking about the climate you can't use just one geographical location to draw any conclusions. It's like looking through a small hole in a wall and then declare there is no people on the other side because you couldn't see anyone.

      • When talking about the climate you can't use just one geographical location to draw any conclusions.

        Why not? The authors of this study just did.

        • Well, the scientist obviously didn't equate the temperature at one specific spot to the average temperature of the whole state...

          Or perhaps you are suggesting that Texas has an uniform temperature that's the same regardless where you measure it?

    • If you don't see it, are you even looking? It's not as graphically obvious as it would be if it were a graph rather than a list, but even in this form you can plainly see the 12-year streak of double-digit numbers of 100-degree days that just finished; the previous record was 6 years. Single-digit years have gone from being a common occurrence to a rarity.

      • Yes, of course I was looking. Here, run the numbers for yourself.

        This is the number of 100 degree days each year for the past 100 years as measured in DFW, TX in reverse year order: 9, 14, 23, 10, 18, 15, 15, 28, 34, 71, 29, 21, 30, 5, 43, 18, 1, 19, 1, 8, 46, 33, 56, 2, 13, 11, 8, 24, 1, 4, 18, 6, 25, 19, 13, 29, 19, 5, 10, 12, 69, 7, 36, 25, 5, 3, 12, 0, 13, 11, 18, 27, 3, 12, 2, 15, 27, 38, 17, 2, 12, 4, 13, 20, 48, 8, 52, 29, 44, 40, 3, 11, 21, 18, 22, 5, 22, 34, 21, 16, 5, 21, 4, 17, 19, 11, 34, 11, 12

        • I will say one thing that is curious about these numbers, and that is I don't see any record of the temperatures which produced the Dust Bowl in the 1930s. I've seen the pictures from West Texas and read the news accounts, and it was an enormously dire situation. I don't know enough to understand how one can get a record nationwide drought without corresponding record high temperatures, it would be interesting to find that out.

          • by MrL0G1C ( 867445 )

            Because it's not temperature that caused the dust bowl it's farming methods and rainfall amount.

        • I wouldn't say there's a clear trend up or down, actually.
          Because your numbers make no sense?
          What do they mean?

  • by matthewcharles2006 ( 960827 ) on Saturday October 09, 2021 @11:12AM (#61875149)
    I used to think global warming affecting "red" states first and hardest would break the denialism and give us a shot at staving off the worst effects. But seeing vast numbers of seemingly intelligent people embrace insane lies and nonsense of all kinds these last 5 years has left me with nothing but despair. I have no doubt now that the current denialism will morph into three things: deeper denialism (conspiracy! Jews!), fatalism (its happening anyway so I'm not giving up my vanity ICE F-350 luxury monster), and blaming Others (similar to how some "sane" Republicans acknowledge the dangers of covid but place a disproportionate amount of blame on southern minority communities for the outbreaks in that burned through Trump counties this summer).
    • I used to think global warming affecting "red" states first and hardest would break the denialism and give us a shot at staving off the worst effects.

      The effects are too small to convince anyone to change.

      • Youre right. Were not gonna do anything until entire breadbasket regions turn into deserts, whole cities have to be abandoned, or heat waves get so bad they collapse entire power grids and 10s of thousands of people cook to death. Until then, its drill baby drill and business as usual. Thankfully, I live fairly north with good infrastructure. The real damage will be 500 miles south of me.
        • So... I'm guessing you haven't heard of climate refugees? And coming from Texas, you can bet many of them will be angry, entitled & armed.
          • Meh. I welcome refugees and immigrants. Its an extremely unpopular opinion nowadays, but the truth is that immigrants and refugees make the host civilization stronger, not weaker. Plus, they actually tend to be MORE law-abiding than the native population. Downmod coming in 3..2..1..
            • We're talking Texas refugees. Grapes of Wrath style internal displacement as parts of the USA increasingly become uninhabitable. Texas proud boys who won't like your liberal attitudes. Might get a bit awkward.
              • I live in a purple state. Iâ(TM)m fine living in a group where people have different opinions than myself. 99 percent of us get along just fine. Amazingly, at the local level, itâ(TM)s totally different than the internet or Congress. Iâ(TM)ve been to texas. I know Texans. Theyâ(TM)re like me. A bit hysterical on the internet, mostly pragmatic and friendly when dealing with neighbors. We will need to deal with the 100 remaining KKK members, but thatâ(TM)s a pretty frikkin small group
                • As in other areas of life in the USA, it's a 1% of the population that are the reason why we can't have nice things. Your new neighbours/members of your community won't necessarily subscribe to your live-and-let-live values. & I bet people are very polite in a state where it's very likely that anyone is carrying a firearm & they're used to living in a "stand your ground" law state.
            • Plus, they actually tend to be MORE law-abiding than the native population.

              This topic is frequently discussed in Europe, where a high percentage of immigrants are come from poor Muslim countries, and supposedly have a propensity toward crime, intolerance, and terror.

              What the statistics I have seen show is that immigrants themselves are more law-abiding than the native population, but the children of immigrants are less law-abiding...

        • by flink ( 18449 )

          The bread basket's days were numbered anyway. We are drawing down aquifers faster than they are replenished. Same for the soil nutrients because we've opened the nitrogen and phosphorus cycles. Eventually that land has to go back to being prairie.

        • Were not gonna do anything until entire breadbasket regions turn into deserts, whole cities have to be abandoned, or heat waves get so bad they collapse entire power grids and 10s of thousands of people cook to death.

          You're being sarcastic, but yeah, that's true.

    • If taking up smoking resulted in lung cancer within 6mos less people would smoke. When covid only kills 2% even before vaccinations, its like smoking. When the feedback is not instant, people grow complacent. Climate change and smoking fall under the category of Intermittent Reinforcement. Thats the strongest form of reinforcement there is.
      • If taking up smoking resulted in lung cancer within 6mos less people would smoke. When covid only kills 2% even before vaccinations, its like smoking. When the feedback is not instant, people grow complacent.

        Exactly this. If exactly the same number of people died, but instead the cigarette exploded and blew their head off, there would be no smokers.

        • Exactly this. If exactly the same number of people died, but instead the cigarette exploded and blew their head off, there would be no smokers.

          So kind of like how cars work?

    • Well, there is an alternative: stop thinking emotionally about it. By that I mean disconnect your feelings from the situation and consider things in a detached, cool manner. Then you could ask yourself questions such as the following without feelings of dread, panic, and despair:

      - How much information do we really have about the situation?
      - Are we really seeing things that have never happened before?
      - How effective are the proposed mitigations?
      - Are they feasible? What would we give up in their place?

      In the

    • Lots of places will have better weather in a warming world. The ones which dont will get a boost in the economy from the building of dams, sea walls, air conditioning etc. We have the technology to adapt to a warming world. The focus should be on adaptation rather than trying to keep the world cool. The world has been much hotter in the past , in fact we are currently in an ice age - polar ice caps are not the norm for the Earth .

      Places like Siberia, Greenland, Antarctica and Canada will become livable
      • Perhaps you should google for animated maps that show how devastating the sea level rises will be.

        Siberia will never be "habitable" - you are just an idiot. The 3 month polar night is not going away, just because the summer is 15 degrees C warmer (it is already 35C - you might not even survive the summer there in a warmed up world).

        3C warmer means: on average - over the planet - over all seasons.

        3C warmer is a catastrophe - and yes it could be the end of man kind.

        Places like the Sahara, the Outback, Arabia,

        • by ghoul ( 157158 )
          3C is the average. Summers are not getting hotter, winters are getting warmer. The tropics are not getting hotter, the arctic is. Perhaps you should read some thermodynamics - the rate of heat transfer is proportional to the 4th power of temperature. It takes far more heat to heat up an already hot place than a cold place. So the excess heat is going into cold places like Siberia, Antarctica duing their winter. Regarding the long night, Scandinavia does fine because the Gulf stream keeps it warm enough. Mod
  • As soon as I see a state mentioned in the headline, it is political. Texas is not an island.
    The Texas Tribune, hates the state being red.
  • they'll just pray it away and bam! it will be gone.

    • They'll have to stop denying it first. When do you think that'll happen?
    • they'll just pray it away and bam! it will be gone.

      Could be an interesting experiment, but as far as I know, there is no atheist state to use as a control. It would be interesting to get stats on the probability of suffering the effects of bad weather, given a strong conservative Christian belief system. Yes, I know correlation does not imply causation, but maybe God is not entirely happy with how His name is taken in vain, so there might be a bit of selective smiting going on.

  • As the planet warms it will be less likely their fossil fuel electrical generation plants will freeze and seize up and result in 200 or more deaths as people freeze to death.

    Bad news for Texas, Raphael Cruz won't be able to blame his daughter for him fleeing the country.

  • We have no more control over ourselves than any other animal.
  • by MacMann ( 7518492 ) on Saturday October 09, 2021 @12:37PM (#61875383)

    Any politician that is serious about global warming will mention nuclear power every time global warming comes up. We will need nuclear power to lower CO2 emissions. Because of the benefits of nuclear power we will get more nuclear power. Even the "deniers" that are not concerned about CO2 emissions should be advocating for nuclear power.

    One reason why I believe there will be more nuclear power used all over the world is because of videos like this: https://www.youtube.com/watch?... [youtube.com]

    There are more and more videos from popular science based YouTube channels talking about how safe, low in CO2 emissions, and reliable nuclear power is today and will be in the future. This is a sign of changing attitudes on nuclear power, and will change more minds on nuclear power. This is a positive feedback loop, and it will spread.

    Then there's the morons with their "What about?" idiocy. What about the cost? We can fix the high current costs of nuclear power with development. Given the high costs of global warming it is difficult to imagine nuclear power costs more. To refuse to use nuclear power is saying that nuclear power is more dangerous than global warming. We can't know just how dangerous global warming will be but we can compare nuclear power to all other forms of energy. Nuclear power is very safe, and can be made to be safer.

    We will get more nuclear power in the USA and around the world. This is because we are running out of options. Once we get the ball rolling on nuclear power adoption then we will be on the path to actually solve problems of CO2 emissions and energy poverty. I'm not trying to convince anyone of anything here but the inevitability of more nuclear power in our future.

    • Germany are taking the opposite attitude. They are phasing out nuclear, and investing heavily in wind power, photovoltaic, etc. I trust the German government to do the best for their citizens. They do seem to govern their country without to much loony ideology or party political game playing. I think they might have special experience in this regard, having fallen to the rule of the Nazis, then after that, having half their country occupied by Stalinists.

  • by Notorious Norcimo 5 ( 3644819 ) on Saturday October 09, 2021 @12:42PM (#61875399)
    Texas is a horrible horrible state and nobody else needs to come to my state, unless you enjoy misery. Please go back to California or another state of your choosing. Thanks!
  • "From here on out, it's going to be very unusual that we ever have a year as mild as a typical year during the 20th century," said John Nielsen-Gammon, the Texas state climatologist who authored the report. "Just about all of them are going to be warmer."

    Here's your pink slip John. Please have the office cleared out and be off the premises by COB today. Pick up your final paycheck at the door on the way out.

    A hotter Texas will threaten public health, squeeze the state's water supply, strain the electric

  • There is a problem selling an expensive program of renewable energy, recycling, and so on, based on what might happen some time in the future, if this is not done. Basically, you are asking people to pay for something without any obvious benefit. Not much of a vote winner.

    I think there is a perception that there are organisations that stand to gain, if people are persuaded that there will be dire consequences if appropriate action is not taken. Based on that theory, the risks will be talked up, hence my tit

  • It took me some time to realize it was 3F and not 3C. It would be 1.6C, which is the lower expectation for global warming.
  • Wake me after an independent group makes verifiable on the ground measurements for 100 years and shows these conjectures to be either true or false.

    Right now, untested hypotheses are being treated as scientific fact.

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