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United Kingdom Medicine

UK Reports Highest Number of Daily Covid Cases Since the Pandemic Began (cnbc.com) 180

The U.K. reported a record number of new daily Covid-19 cases on Wednesday, with 78,610 in the last 24 hours. From a report: The figure was an increase from 59,610 the day before, and it surpasses the previous high of 68,053 cases reported on Jan. 8. It underlines the dramatic surge in infections that the country is seeing ahead of the Christmas holiday period with the omicron variant expected to quickly become the dominant strain. One senior British health chief has warned that there could be "staggering" numbers in the next few days. Long queues have been seen outside vaccination centers in many U.K. cities and towns with the government putting its booster program on overdrive to try to get a third vaccine shot to as many people as possible. There were 165 new Covid deaths in the U.K. on Wednesday, according to government data. While deaths remain low currently and initial reports suggest that the omicron variant might not be any more severe than other Covid strains, health experts have repeatedly warned that the sheer number of infections could lead to mounting fatalities and an overwhelmed health-care system.
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UK Reports Highest Number of Daily Covid Cases Since the Pandemic Began

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  • by runner_one ( 455793 ) on Wednesday December 15, 2021 @02:03PM (#62083641)

    How about the number of hospitalizations or deaths, seems to me like that number would be more relevant.

    • by ebcdic ( 39948 ) on Wednesday December 15, 2021 @02:22PM (#62083739)
      "How about the number of hospitalizations or deaths, seems to me like that number would be more relevant." It's too soon for the omicron variant to be showing up there. We'll see in a week or two.
      • by NFN_NLN ( 633283 )

        Babylon Bee is on it:

        California Institutes Mask Mandate To Flatten The Horizontal Line
        https://babylonbee.com/news/ca... [babylonbee.com]

        • by skam240 ( 789197 )

          To be fair, Newsom's idiocy aside the point of doing something like this is to keep numbers low, not flatten an already flattened line.

      • by shanen ( 462549 )

        "How about the number of hospitalizations or deaths, seems to me like that number would be more relevant."

        It's too soon for the omicron variant to be showing up there. We'll see in a week or two.

        Mod parent up, though I think you should have used Quote Parent reverse thusly.

      • by mjwx ( 966435 )

        "How about the number of hospitalizations or deaths, seems to me like that number would be more relevant." It's too soon for the omicron variant to be showing up there. We'll see in a week or two.

        With COVID, the incubation period is 1-2 weeks. Unless you're suggesting that Omicron has a massively longer incubation period we should be seeing radically increased hospitalisations and deaths now. The fact that we aren't suggests the vaccine is, by and large, doing it's job (Occam's razor and all that).

        Point is, we should be alert, not alarmed.

        As a UK resident, I think being aware of the case rate is important, but we shouldn't lose sight of the actual effect it's having. I'm sure I'm not alone in

        • by ebcdic ( 39948 )

          With COVID, the incubation period is 1-2 weeks. Unless you're suggesting that Omicron has a massively longer incubation period we should be seeing radically increased hospitalisations and deaths now. The fact that we aren't suggests the vaccine is, by and large, doing it's job (Occam's razor and all that).

          Hospitalization numbers lag reported infection numbers by about 8 days. 8 days ago, omicron infections were a tiny proportion of the total. There is a further lag between hospitalizations and deaths, and between deaths and registration of deaths. The graph labeled "Cases, Deaths, and Hospitalizations Comparison Trends" here [travellingtabby.com] illustrates these delays, as well as the greatly reduced hospitalization and mortality after the introduction of vaccination.

    • Re: (Score:3, Insightful)

      by nemom ( 8355939 )
      Because the news has to sensationalize everything. The hospitalization rate is about 2% of people who are not asymptomatic infections. They can't scare people by saying "596 people were hospitalized for COVID across all of the UK." About a dozen years ago, my wife and I were in Chicago to visit her sister. The teaser for the evening news was, "There may be something in your house that could kill you at any minute. News at nine." We didn't bother to watch to find out what it was. I always wondered wou
      • Re: (Score:3, Informative)

        by jeff4747 ( 256583 )

        The hospitalization rate for Omicron is unknown. Because it's a lagging indicator. It's going to be another week or two before enough people have had it long enough that some require hospitalization.

      • by AmiMoJo ( 196126 )

        Nearly 600 people hospitalised is very scary. It's going to exponentially, and the 200k/day infections won't be seen in hospital admissions for at least 10 days.

        This comic comes to mind: https://raw.githubusercontent.... [githubusercontent.com]

    • by Kokuyo ( 549451 ) on Wednesday December 15, 2021 @02:45PM (#62083821) Journal

      According to worldometers daily deaths are still very stable and comparatively low.

      According to coronavirus.data.gov.uk hospitalizations are relatively stable still and again way lower than during the January peak.

      • by shanen ( 462549 )

        Considering how fast Omicron is spreading, I think it is much too soon to say that.

        Plus, we remain one bad mutation away from disaster.

        • by Kokuyo ( 549451 ) on Wednesday December 15, 2021 @03:23PM (#62083937) Journal

          ...it's too sun to quote actual statistics? I have not extrapolated any conclusions or even offered an opinion on how to proceed. Merely mentioned current numbers and the sources and STILL I get people going "Acktchually" at me?

          I keep overestimating people...

          • by Kokuyo ( 549451 )

            *soon not sun... what the actual... :D

            • by shanen ( 462549 )

              Your "stable and comparatively low" is your judgment call. But of course you're including yourself in the overestimated people, right?

            • by mjwx ( 966435 )

              *soon not sun... what the actual... :D

              I thought you were refering to the Sun... One of the UK's favourite red top (BS peddling) tabloids. I thought it was almost appropriate given the alarmism the red tops like to publish.

        • Considering how fast Omicron is spreading, I think it is much too soon to say that.

          How much time is enough to know if some new variant of COVID-19 is a matter of concern?

          Plus, we remain one bad mutation away from disaster.

          That's always been true, COVID-19 didn't change that. There are many kinds of coronaviruses in the wild, any one of them could mutate into some kind of "disaster". Viruses that kill their hosts quickly don't spread that quickly, people die before they can infect others. Viruses that have mild symptoms will spread quickly because people remain mobile, continue to go to work, school, church, etc.

          We already have people sc

          • My guess is this ends early next year, around about the time candidates start running in primary elections for 2022. The candidates that convince the most people that things are fine will be most popular.

            Pandering to the gullible. No wonder people think American democracy has become a failure.

            • Pandering to the gullible. No wonder people think American democracy has become a failure.

              Right you are. The USA is a horrible place to be. Everyone that doesn't like it here needs to leave. We need a one-way street out of the country, nobody should be allowed in to experience the failure of American democracy first hand. Mexico needs to build a wall to keep any Mexicans from wandering over the border by mistake. Canada needs a wall on all borders with the USA too.

              Why anyone would want to come here just baffles me. We need to have a national policy to keep people out, but then I guess that

              • Jolly good show. You gave that strawman a right good thrashing.

                Back on point.
                Do you think the oppressed people of the world today. Still look up to America's democracy in the same reverent light that they used to?
                It's become quite tarnished in the eyes of many people. Despite what the Stockholm syndrome addled trapped inside might still think.

                • by shanen ( 462549 )

                  Can't figure out whether to ACK or NAK the branch. MEPR could help me detect and ignore the clever troll, but...

                  For whatever it's worth, I was writing about a MEDICAL problem called Covid-19. I was not writing about an economic, political, or PR problem of some sort. It is hard to control the timing of medical problems, though the other categories are all subject to time-based manipulation. (I'd cite an ekrononics [sic] textbook, but I haven't been able to find one. If I could find my Boswell, then maybe I

                  • NAK would probably have been better at this point. It's veered way off topic from your original post about Covid.
        • Plus, we remain one bad mutation away from disaster.

          Well, quite often, we see viral mutations lean towards being less virulent and deadly...as they try to make themselves more transmissible.

          Early signs seem to show this happening with covid in the Omnicron variant.

          It's still early, but, fingers crossed this is the case.

          It might present as a blessing in disguise.

          • That's just wishful thinking no matter how many times people repeat it.

            There is very limited selection pressure for covid to become less deadly. It already infects other people before the infected show symptoms. They aren't going to be staying isolated because they are sick.
            Heck a large percentage of people are asymptomatic and never even knew they had it.
            It just spreads too easily for the death of the carrier to be much of a problem.

            As more and more people become resistant due to either vaccinations or

            • by shanen ( 462549 )

              I'm actually more interested in this talk of competing variants. I'm not understanding what they mean by that. The variants certainly don't get to compete directly against each other, so how can the distribution of infections change so quickly?

              Now I'm hoping the numbers from the UK are messed up in some way. Maybe Omicron actually appeared a while back and we just failed to notice it until recently because we didn't know how to spot it? How certain are we that it even originated in South Africa? Maybe they

      • by kbahey ( 102895 )

        According to worldometers daily deaths are still very stable and comparatively low.

        It may be that the current infections are skewed towards younger people, who tend to suffer less complications, or need of hospitalization, or die.

        Here in Ontario, the largest province in Canada (~ 14.5M), you can see the cumulative breakdown by age [ontario.ca] (last graph).

        It would be better if this can be compared (e.g. last month, vs. now, and this month vs. a year prior) but that is not available.

        In lieu of that, you can see that the

    • So it is not 200,000 per day?
    • How about the number of hospitalizations or deaths, seems to me like that number would be more relevant.

      Ask again in two weeks and that will be a much more useful number.

      • Exactly. For a rapidly growing variant (doubling every two or three days), comparing current deaths against current cases will underestimate fatality ratio, potentially by a large factor. Two weeks is nearly five doublings, even with three-day doubling time.
  • by nospam007 ( 722110 ) * on Wednesday December 15, 2021 @02:33PM (#62083777)

    ...expect a circus.

    PS. Happy belated Freedom Day!

  • by demon driver ( 1046738 ) on Wednesday December 15, 2021 @02:54PM (#62083855) Journal

    Germany has been having higher-than-ever numbers of daily COVID cases for five or six weeks now, while omicron hasn't even really arrived there yet.

    This is going to be fun.

    • Re: (Score:2, Insightful)

      by Anonymous Coward

      Doesn't Germany have a relatively high rate of vaccination? Reuters gives a figure of over 82%. At that point all you have left are young children and a few other excluded groups. Effectively everyone that can be safely vaccinated has been.

      Yet here we are, watching COVID infections blow through the record.

      • No Germany is at 69.7% of the entire population being vaccinated. so there are still some 25M people left to fill the ICU with
      • by quenda ( 644621 )

        Doesn't Germany have a relatively high rate of vaccination? Reuters gives a figure of over 82%.

        No, googling reuters I get:

        Germany, in the grip of a fourth wave of infections, has a relatively low rate of vaccination compared with the rest of Europe. Some 69% of the population is fully vaccinated

        Worryingly, only 86% of over-60s are fully vaccinated.
        https://impfdashboard.de/en/ [impfdashboard.de]

        Only Spain and Portugal have high vaccination rates in Europe.
        Spain is currently seeing much lower death rates than Germany, but the latest wave started later there, and it is too early to tell how much better they will fare.

        • by jabuzz ( 182671 )

          Where I live (Scotland) the vaccination rate for over 60's double jabbed is greater than 99.95%. Basically the figures are shown to the nearest decimal place and have been showing as 100.0% for some time now. For boosted it is over 90% in the over 60's.

          https://public.tableau.com/app... [tableau.com]

      • No, Germany has a relatively high rate of social basket cases of various hues who think they have good reasons not to get vaccinated:

        * passive aggressive, discontent citizens who just want to 'stick it to them' and who dig their heels in out of general principle

        * easterners thinking they are treated as second rate citizens and have regressed to believing that they live in a dictatorship

        * genuine conspiratists who believe they are to be injected with poison and will be rounded up in camps

        * extreme Dunnin

        • Vote lame and lazy politicians for 40 years... Get darwinian wipeout.

          • Vote lame and lazy politicians for 40 years... Get darwinian wipeout.

            After 1933-1945, Germans electing "lame and lazy politicians" was probably a good thing.

            Also, if even 1933-45 didn't wipe them out, not even with the active help of the rest of the world, it'll get tough for Darwin to attempt it now.

  • Every November I'll be getting my expanded flu shot.

    It's never going away. Too many conflicting pressures. Welcome to the new world.

    • by sdinfoserv ( 1793266 ) on Wednesday December 15, 2021 @03:25PM (#62083941)
      The term you're looking for is "endemic". COVID has moved from pandemic to endemic. It will cycle through populations, mutate, then recycle again. Just like like the flu. The latest version seems to be the lowest mortality. Hopefully, the next mutation won't increase mortality
      • >"The term you're looking for is "endemic". COVID has moved from pandemic to endemic. It will cycle through populations, mutate, then recycle again. Just like like the flu. The latest version seems to be the lowest mortality. Hopefully, the next mutation won't increase mortality"

        ^THIS +1000

        People need to stop panicking, it only creates more problems. Leave other people alone, and stop pretending this can be "stopped" or eradicated, stop going around worried all the time, stop trying to ruin the economy

      • "The term you're looking for is 'endemic'".

        The word "endemic" has been used too often just recently by people seeking to lend their voice some level of authority it doesn't necessarily deserve. Once that happens I generally avoid its use, until normalcy resumes.

  • I mean, lockdowns.
  • Way too late (Score:5, Informative)

    by WillAffleckUW ( 858324 ) on Wednesday December 15, 2021 @04:17PM (#62084123) Homepage Journal

    Look, it's already out and about everywhere.

    Mask up.

    Vax up.

    Boost up.

    And get your flu shot.

    I'm serious about all of those.

    No, it's not funny that most Brits are going around unmasked. The virus doesn't care about your excuses.

    • by AmiMoJo ( 196126 )

      A lot of people are staying at home. Loads us cancellations in the busy Xmas period.

      I don't go out unless I have to. Too many idiots.

      • A lot of people are staying at home. Loads us cancellations in the busy Xmas period.

        I don't go out unless I have to. Too many idiots.

        If you've been boosted your protection against severe disease from Omicron is back up to ~90% (from antibodies alone, and may be even better from T-cell response). In addition the new anti-virals give an additional 90% against progression to severe disease.

        How much risk reduction do you need before you'll go outside again?

        For me 99% reduction in a base line ~0.02% (based on my age) risk of serious harm is good enough that I'll get on with living. Sure, if the hospitalisations really surge and we have to loc

  • It's going to be great when we have the normal yearly truckloads of car accidents and there's no hospital beds available.

A complex system that works is invariably found to have evolved from a simple system that works.

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