Catch up on stories from the past week (and beyond) at the Slashdot story archive

 



Forgot your password?
typodupeerror
×
News Science

WHO Sounds Warning Over Fast-spreading Omicron (reuters.com) 215

The Omicron variant of the coronavirus is spreading faster than the Delta variant and is causing infections in people already vaccinated or who have recovered from the COVID-19 disease, the head of the World Health Organization (WHO) said. From a report: WHO chief scientist Soumya Swaminathan added it would be "unwise" to conclude from early evidence that Omicron was a milder variant that previous ones. "... with the numbers going up, all health systems are going to be under strain," Soumya Swaminathan told Geneva-based journalists. The variant is successfully evading some immune responses, she said, meaning that the booster programmes being rolled out in many countries ought to be targeted towards people with weaker immune systems. "There is now consistent evidence that Omicron is spreading significantly faster than the Delta variant," WHO director-general Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus told the briefing. "And it is more likely people vaccinated or recovered from COVID-19 could be infected or re-infected," Tedros said.
This discussion has been archived. No new comments can be posted.

WHO Sounds Warning Over Fast-spreading Omicron

Comments Filter:
  • Unwise? (Score:5, Informative)

    by drinkypoo ( 153816 ) <drink@hyperlogos.org> on Tuesday December 21, 2021 @11:28AM (#62102699) Homepage Journal

    WHO chief scientist Soumya Swaminathan added it would be "unwise" to conclude from early evidence that Omicron was a milder variant that previous ones.

    So far it still appears that it is a milder variant, where the individual is concerned. But it also appears that it is so transmissible that the numbers (of cases requiring hospitalization, that is) are going up again to the point where hospitals will be overwhelmed...again.

    It would be unwise to be complacent even if this is a milder variant.

    • Re:Unwise? (Score:5, Informative)

      by olsmeister ( 1488789 ) on Tuesday December 21, 2021 @11:36AM (#62102735)
      Hospitalizations and deaths lag infection by a significant amount of time, even weeks. It is still too early to say with any certainty that it is milder. The data coming out of South Africa is suspect because of various other factors, things like a younger population, significant previous infections, and simple underreporting.
      • by cirby ( 2599 )

        It's not too early, by any stretch.

        It's been out and about in South Africa for long enough to infect a massive number of people, and the doctors there all agree that it's an extremely mild strain, with very low hospitalizations/deaths. That data may be suspect in some minor details, but no serious medical professional from there agrees with you.

        It's already apparently the major strain in some US states, and there's apparently been one - yes, ONE death attributed to Omicron in the whole US, and that was a gu

        • Re: (Score:3, Insightful)

          by aitikin ( 909209 )

          It's been out and about in South Africa for long enough to infect a massive number of people, and the doctors there all agree that it's an extremely mild strain, with very low hospitalizations/deaths.

          "Out and about in South Africa," where 80 percent [bloomberg.com] of people likely already had some variant of Covid already, many multiple times, thus bolstering their immune systems against Omicron. The fact that the CDC just announced that Omicron was the dominant strain in the US as of yesterday would seem to indicate that the US can't know how bad it's going to be yet.

          As pointed out, the lag after infections before hospitalizations is a major reason that all medical professionals I've heard from (both in person and o

          • Re:Unwise? (Score:5, Informative)

            by cirby ( 2599 ) on Tuesday December 21, 2021 @02:52PM (#62103489)

            And yet, for some reason, that "strain that is just as bad" seems to be causing COVID hospitalizations in South Africa to drop by 90%.

            Weird how those coincidences happen.

            • by jbengt ( 874751 )

              And yet, for some reason, that "strain that is just as bad" seems to be causing COVID hospitalizations in South Africa to drop by 90%.

              You are not successfully contradicting the post you are responding to. See: [bloomberg.com]

              Scientists have cautioned that other nations may have a different experience to South Africa as the country’s population is young compared with developed nations. Between 70% and 80% of citizens may also have had a prior Covid-19 infection, according to antibody surveys, meaning they could have some level of protection.
              . . .
              The number of Covid-19 hospitalizations in this wave is also being inflated by the fact that milder patients are being admitted because there is room to accommodate them. Many are there for other complaints but are routinely tested, according to health officials.

        • and the doctors there all agree that it's an extremely mild strain
          Extremely unlikely.
          As the doctors in Germany ATM agree: it is just the same as the previous strains.
          Ooops.

          So no, that "there's no proof" line is just silly.
          Exactly. So why do you claim, there is a proof or agreement?

        • It's already apparently the major strain in some US states, and there's apparently been one - yes, ONE death attributed to Omicron in the whole US, and that was a guy with severe health problems beforehand.

          The US has barely even had it long enough to end in deaths except for one extreme circumstance. The lag between infection and death is more like 2 weeks. But because the infections grow exponentially through the population, there weren't a lot of cases until more like a week ago. We need to give it a little more time before drawing conclusions on what it will do in the US.

      • Re: (Score:2, Insightful)

        Hospitalizations and deaths lag infection by a significant amount of time, even weeks. It is still too early to say with any certainty that it is milder.

        Data out of ZA is presently quite clear and unambiguous. A sufficient amount of time has passed to see a signal from poor health outcomes and deaths reactions if there was one. Thus far zilch. In some areas of ZA Omicron infections are already on a sharp decline.. there this Omicron nothing burger wave is basically coming to an end.

        The data coming out of South Africa is suspect because of various other factors, things like a younger population

        I don't understand the basis of "younger population" objection. ZA data includes age and while they have a relatively low median age there is no shortage of old people /w 3+

        • by dgatwood ( 11270 )

          Hospitalizations and deaths lag infection by a significant amount of time, even weeks. It is still too early to say with any certainty that it is milder.

          Data out of ZA is presently quite clear and unambiguous. A sufficient amount of time has passed to see a signal from poor health outcomes and deaths reactions if there was one. Thus far zilch. In some areas of ZA Omicron infections are already on a sharp decline.. there this Omicron nothing burger wave is basically coming to an end.

          Deaths lag cases by about four weeks. We *just* passed the four-week mark a couple of days ago, and yesterday, the deaths from COVID jumped by 250% from the day before, and/or from the 7-day moving average, which is just about right on cue.

          and simple underreporting.

          This does not seem credible. Summary data on hospital utilization and the status of hospitalized patients is maintained centrally and publically available to anyone in the world.

          You're assuming first-world levels of medical care. Large parts of South Africa lack that. How many COVID deaths go unreported each day because the patients never made it to a hospital or got tested? Give it three months and look at total mortality numbers; then we'll

          • Re:Unwise? (Score:4, Interesting)

            by WaffleMonster ( 969671 ) on Tuesday December 21, 2021 @07:57PM (#62104555)

            Deaths lag cases by about four weeks. We *just* passed the four-week mark a couple of days ago

            We would have seen the vast majority of deaths by week three.
            https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/p... [nih.gov]

            If there was a signal it would have long been visible by now both in terms of deaths and hospitalizations.

            You're assuming first-world levels of medical care. Large parts of South Africa lack that. How many COVID deaths go unreported each day because the patients never made it to a hospital or got tested? Give it three months and look at total mortality numbers; then we'll have a better idea.

            ZA somehow managed to capture over 400 deaths a day at peak of the last wave. The current one is crashing and there is an order of magnitude less daily deaths than peak of last wave. We'll know beyond any doubt in the next couple of weeks from both ZA and UK not three months.

            • by dgatwood ( 11270 )

              Deaths lag cases by about four weeks. We *just* passed the four-week mark a couple of days ago

              We would have seen the vast majority of deaths by week three. https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/p... [nih.gov]

              If there was a signal it would have long been visible by now both in terms of deaths and hospitalizations.

              You should also not ignore the possibility that nearly everyone in this particular surge has already had COVID or a vaccine or both. South Africa is believed to have had a lot more COVID cases than were actually detected (like an order of magnitude more). The CFR may not translate so well into countries where that is not the case.

    • The viral load is significantly higher due to it multiplying 70 times faster. It's possible that could lead to less or more severe disease. One of the key issues with covid is the interplay between the innate and adaptive immune response. A slow/low innate response that goes into overdrive when the adaptive response kicks in a week later. Some infections move so fast though that they essentially kill everything cell they can kill within a couple days and the adaptive response just cleans up the carnage. By
      • ...it's possible that the deadliest characteristic of covid (the interplay between adaptive and innate immunity) will be less likely. But we need to see the data, which should be apparent in the next couple of weeks.

        What won't be apparent for at least a few months is how prevalent and serious "long Covid" might be with this variant. Even people who are asymptomatic or have only mild symptoms might still be kicked in the ass by it during the subsequent year or so. I'm happy to have gotten my third shot - and judging by the way I felt afterwards my immune system definitely responded to it - but I'm still being careful and taking precautions.

        • by gweihir ( 88907 )

          What won't be apparent for at least a few months is how prevalent and serious "long Covid" might be with this variant. Even people who are asymptomatic or have only mild symptoms might still be kicked in the ass by it during the subsequent year or so. I'm happy to have gotten my third shot - and judging by the way I felt afterwards my immune system definitely responded to it - but I'm still being careful and taking precautions.

          Same here (3rd Moderna scheduled in 2 days). What is very worrying about Long Covid is many people suffering from it seem to stop getting better after a few months, while nowhere near recovered. Also, apparently the numbers of people diagnosed with Long Covid after an _asymptomatic_ infection appear to be significant. For symptomatic cases, it is about as high as 40%.

    • by gweihir ( 88907 )

      Indeed. Also, even if milder, until you reach saturation, exponential behavior (infection) kills effects from linear behavior (less severe) every time.

      For example, assume 10 times lower percentage of people in hospitals or needing an ICU with Omicron. There are no hard numbers, but it seems unlikely Omicron is that much less severe. Doubling rate is apparently around 2 days (1.5...3 days reported from different places). That means you have the same number of people in hospitals and in ICUs with Omicron just

  • Explosive growth (Score:5, Interesting)

    by kbahey ( 102895 ) on Tuesday December 21, 2021 @11:39AM (#62102747) Homepage

    This is one fast spreading bugger ...

    The UK has been breaking the daily case numbers for several days.
    The previous record in January 2021 was 68,000, and last Wednesday it was 78,000.
    Yesterday, it was 129,900!

    Quebec broker the daily record yesterday, and they shut down schools, gyms, and bars.

    The USA went from 12% to 73% Omicron in one week. See the CDC Variant Tracker [cdc.gov].

    • by idji ( 984038 )
      Notice that it's all blue states that are nearly 100% omicron. How many will die and suffer before they realize this has ZERO to do with politics and all about staying alive and healthy. https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-da... [cdc.gov]
      • by gweihir ( 88907 )

        How many will die and suffer before they realize this has ZERO to do with politics and all about staying alive and healthy.

        I do not think these people will ever realize that. It would require accepting facts and they cannot do that. I mean, even Trump got a booster now and they are still screaming all their deranged nonsense.

    • The UK has been breaking the daily case numbers for several days. The previous record in January 2021 was 68,000, and last Wednesday it was 78,000. Yesterday, it was 129,900!

      Today's figure just went up [theguardian.com] at 90k cases. The 68k for Jan peak and 78k for the 15th figures look right, but I don't see where your 129k number comes from?

      Also, for what it's worth, there is still lots of delta cases, so the real growth in Omicron is even worse that you were trying to illustrate.

      • by kbahey ( 102895 )

        I don't see where your 129k number comes from?

        I confused two sources of data.

        The 129k number is actually from the ZOE symptom tracker, per Dr. John Campbell [youtu.be], so not official tests.

        The official figure of tested people is 102,875 [data.gov.uk], although this was for Dec 15th.

    • This is one fast spreading bugger ...

      Helped along of course by a lot of places taking the view of "we're vaxxed, we're open, COVID is done!" I especially like how the Netherlands has set 3 solid weeks of record breaking case numbers before bothering to enact any rules.

      Masks? Who cares! COVID is over. Wait what do you mean we're going into lockdown because the cases have skyrocketed?

      • by gweihir ( 88907 )

        This is one fast spreading bugger ...

        Helped along of course by a lot of places taking the view of "we're vaxxed, we're open, COVID is done!" I especially like how the Netherlands has set 3 solid weeks of record breaking case numbers before bothering to enact any rules.

        Masks? Who cares! COVID is over. Wait what do you mean we're going into lockdown because the cases have skyrocketed?

        Indeed. The sheer disconnectedness expressed in that is staggering. I am starting to believe that Pfizer researcher that recently predicted Covid will run at least until 2024 has a point.

    • The 73% figure seems to be incorrect, resulting from a website bug. [theprepared.com] Though the percentage will probably reach and surpass 73% in not too long.

    • The UK has been breaking the daily case numbers for several days.

      Dr. May is recovering from covid [cnn.com]. Apparently it's no fun getting infected.
  • We have a possible first case at my company in Michigan.

    One of our guys called in with Covid symptoms and my money is on a positive test- followed by a whole bunch of sick people like with Delta.

    We had 30/100 employees out sick at one point. I'll expect worse with this.

    Perhaps the management team will decide to close up again... we'll see.

  • Im vaxxed, boostered, and Ill keep getting the updated shots. So, yeah, im gonna get covid every winter or two for the rest of my life, but its probably gonna be all mild “gah I feel a little bad” types of cases. Often, vaccinations dont make you immune, they just make you highly robust to the resulting infection.

    Meanwhile, roughly 0.5 to 1 percent of the covid deniers are gonna die from it. Those odds are really well quantified at this point. And another chunk will be damaged for life ie.
    • by gweihir ( 88907 )

      Meanwhile, roughly 0.5 to 1 percent of the covid deniers are gonna die from it. Those odds are really well quantified at this point.

      Those numbers are with hospital and ICU space available. Without it they go way higher. Data from New York seems to indicate 5% dead is realistic.

      And another chunk will be damaged for life ie. lung damage, brain fog, long covid.

      Not yet sure, but there is an extremely worrying trend where a lot of Long Covid sufferers top getting better after a few months. Damaged for life is a very real possibility. And apparently as much as 40% of people surviving Covid get at least one Long Covid symptom. Some with asymptomatic infections apparently as well.

      • You can protect yourself from this by staying up to date with booster doses. They'll likely make a seasonal one combined with a flu shot. A lot of people won't take it. A lot of people smoke too. It's a free country. You live with the consequences of your actions. Until boosters are widely available in a timely manner, I can see additional measures, but eventually this'll be handled like the yearly flu, with a seasonal wave.
  • the public health establishment is going to be trying to stamp out the common cold, with a straight face.

    Hospitalization figures are going down from the Delta surge.

    Cases are spiking in highly vaccinated regions of the country because those same places tend to have policies that favor repeat/routine testing of asymptomatic or mildly symptomatic individuals in schools and workplaces, and suddenly lots of people either have the sniffles or are close contacts of someone who had the sniffles that turned out to

  • Is Omicron the Covid Cowpox?
  • We still don't definitively know the origins of Covid-19 after two years and the WHO is involved in blocking the truth about it.
    I think the world is owed an explanation for the millions of lives lost, the trillions in economic and personal damage this has caused.

    • Other than satisfying curiosity, how does knowing help?
      • Knowing would help us prevent the next one, although I don't see any reason not to take steps to both ban future gain of function research and ban disease-spreading practices at wet markets. It doesn't matter that much which caused this pandemic but we sure don't need either of these causing the next pandemic.
      • The possibility of justice should it turn out that there are people responsible for causing a global pandemic?
    • by angel'o'sphere ( 80593 ) <angelo,schneider&oomentor,de> on Tuesday December 21, 2021 @01:55PM (#62103255) Journal

      We still don't definitively know the origins
      Correct.

      and the WHO is involved in blocking the truth about it.
      So you think "they" know?

      Not sure if your stance is amusing or frightening ...

    • by jbengt ( 874751 )

      We still don't definitively know the origins of Covid-19 after two years . . .

      We don't know the origins of the common cold, or smallpox, or polio, or just about any infectious disease, after decades and even centuries.

  • Today's (or there about) xkcd, Immunity [xkcd.com]:

    Hat Guy: See, it's good to get infected because it gives you immunity.
    Guy: Why would I want immunity?
    Hat Guy: To protect you from getting inf ... wait.

  • by SuperKendall ( 25149 ) on Tuesday December 21, 2021 @01:21PM (#62103131)

    I personally am almost out of quarantine from a case of Covid, that I'm sure was Omicron.

    I got it from an overnight trip, despite being fully vaccinated, despite even double masking on the plane...

    This one will spread far and wide.

    However from a health standpoint, it doesn't matter - all mass data we have shows that it's not really increasing hospitalizations anywhere, even as cases spike.

    From my own personal experience, I can see why - it was like the mildest cold I ever had, with around one day of a runny nose and that was it.

    I wouldn't even know I had it except that I always get tested after travelling out of habit. Which also indicates the numbers you see are wildly under-reported.

    What is going to be way, way more harmful than this incredibly mild form of Covid is our response to it, where we treat all forms of Covid as the same.

    As I said, I'm still in quarantined but it's obviously stupid to do so, any actual lines ended days ago. For this variant we shouldn't; have the same concerns, or quarantine period. There should be some adjustment for how long after all symptoms are gone someone can reasonably exist quarantine.

    Good news though is the immunity boost this provides means that in a month or so all forms of Covid numbers should be dropping off a cliff as this wave washes over and effectively inoculates the remainder of the populations that didn't want to get vaccines.

    • by hey! ( 33014 )

      I suspect this is a taste of what the end game looks like, with the overall public health impact dwindling over months as more people have *some* form of immunity, either through vaccination, prior infection, or, like you now, the Rolls Royce of COVID immunity: a mild breakthrough infection after vaccination.

      This may be why early data suggested omicron was resulting in fewer hospitalizations -- it's been infecting populations with more immunity. Scientific opinion isn't settled on why yet [science.org], so it's a bit pr

  • The death rates seem very low... is Omicron a highly contagious vaccine?

    Mod me down if I am ignorant... admittedly don't know much about it.

  • Don't get complacent. The pandemic won't be over until we reach herd immunity. Get that BOOST

And it should be the law: If you use the word `paradigm' without knowing what the dictionary says it means, you go to jail. No exceptions. -- David Jones

Working...