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Earth

Climate Scientists Grapple With Wildfire Disaster in Their Backyard (axios.com) 78

The wind-whipped firestorm that tore through parts of Boulder County, Colorado, on Thursday struck at the heart of one of America's top climate science and meteorology research hubs. From a report: Now some of the top minds who study how climate change is amplifying wildfire risks find themselves shaken and struggling to process what they just witnessed. The Marshall Fire destroyed as many as 1,000 homes and may have killed two people, while leaving thousands of others homeless after tearing through Denver's northern suburbs of Superior, Louisville and Broomfield.

While 2021 was full of extreme weather events across the United States, this one stands out for targeting some of the top scientists who are responsible for warning the public about growing wildfire risks as the climate changes. Boulder is home to multiple NOAA labs as well as the National Center for Atmospheric Research, the University of Colorado and the Center for Severe Weather Research. There are also climate intelligence firms and satellite companies located there, such as Maxar.

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Climate Scientists Grapple With Wildfire Disaster in Their Backyard

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  • Propaganda bullshit (Score:3, Interesting)

    by e3m4n ( 947977 ) on Monday January 03, 2022 @09:32AM (#62138203)
    Fires don't consciously go around targeting anybody. Furthermore fires attributed to climate change occur during events of excessive drought, dry air, and high temperatures. That sort of shit doesnt happen in December. Just because climate change is responsible for some fires doesnt make it automatically responsible for all fires. All thumbs are fingers but not all fingers are thumbs. Unless climate change caused colarado to experience 105F temps with 20% humidity in December, it is not the cause nor is it exacerbated by. Now if it were august and a brushfire went out of control because two stoners threw their lit roach or cigarette butt into a pile of brush behind school; sure Climate change played a role. Wrong time of the year to blame climate on a brush fire. Physics of a fire triangle requires fuel heat and oxygen. They were no where near the heat levels for ANY sort of burn advisory.
    • Was climate change necessary for this fire to occur? Probably not. But was it a sufficient condition that increased it's likelihood of happening? Absolutely. Causation is complicated. This event fits into the predicted pattern by scientists so that should be taken seriously.
      • by Ol Olsoc ( 1175323 ) on Monday January 03, 2022 @10:32AM (#62138391)

        Was climate change necessary for this fire to occur? Probably not. But was it a sufficient condition that increased it's likelihood of happening? Absolutely. Causation is complicated. This event fits into the predicted pattern by scientists so that should be taken seriously.

        FTA:

        What made the landscape so fire-prone before Thursday's extreme high winds spawned the #MarshallFire? Denver data for Sep 1-Dec 29:

        Avg temp: 52.2F (2nd warmest in 150 yrs of data)

        Precip: 0.47" (least in 150 yrs of data)

        Snowfall: 0.3"(least in 140 yrs of data)

        One of the most difficult things to do in this field is trying to determine if any weather event is attributable to atmospheric composition effects. Was this attributable to Global warming? Maybe, maybe not. It was surely attributable to high temperatures and drought conditions combining.

        What is telling though is the denialists "I don't give a damn - I don't live there." responses. They like their warmer weather - and truly do not care if others die for it.

    • The fire was spread by wind. I don't suppose you know where strong winds come from. The 115 mile per hour winds were directly caused by the scale of the low-pressure system passing through. The cause of the spark is irrelevant next to the cause of the massive spread of the fire.

      • I dont suppose you understand all 3 parts of a fire triangle do you? Try burning wet fresh timber. Wind means nothing if you lack sufficient fuel and heat in equal parts. Wind increases oxygen. You still need the heat to dry the fuel to combustible levels. Throwing a maltov cocktail into a marsh of wet leaves (the equivalent of wind spreading fire) does not magically catch the area ablaze. Heat amd dry air have to prep the incoming fuel. This fire was nothing compared to a summer brush fire. Look at CA or T
        • I live just a few miles from the fire. I'd guess that in the old normal it wouldn't have happened, at least not in late December. This has been one of, if not the, driest summer/falls on record. In an old normal year, the entire burnt area would have been covered with snow on 12/30, or at least would have recently had snow on it. There would be significantly more moisture. The fuel load was much higher than normal, because we had one of the wettest springs on record: there was lots of organic material to dr

    • by CubicleZombie ( 2590497 ) on Monday January 03, 2022 @10:25AM (#62138363)

      Is the issue that climate change is bringing wildfires to suburbs or is the issue that suburbs are expanding to where there are wildfires?

      • As someone stationed in WA in the early 90s, its not the first exodus of CA refugees. I doubt its climate change nearly as much as mismanagement by government driving that exodus. When the american dream fails the middle class, the middle class has no choice but to leave. Affordable housing is the biggest driver of exodus. Noone wants to live in a tent.
      • It's both, it doesn't have to be one or the other and it isn't. We keep building homes mixed in with trees and we keep shitting up the environment producing more AGW that kills more trees and makes fires easier to start, and faster to spread.

    • Re: (Score:3, Interesting)

      by Tailhook ( 98486 )

      Fires don't consciously go around targeting anybody.

      If you look at the aerials of the burned out neighborhoods around Boulder they look exactly like the burned out neighborhoods in California: developments with large, closely spaced houses on tiny lots. The fire whips from one structure to the next and burns out everyone. Fire loves these conditions. So effectively yes, the fires are targeting these conditions.

      House density regulations produce developments with houses only a few feet away from each other. These developments aren't very old; they've bee

      • Not the same as personification. No more than tornados go looking for trailer parks.
      • by Viol8 ( 599362 )

        Fire also loves wood. When the fuck are you americans going to start building houses out of brick, blockwork or concrete FFS like most of europe? Sure, wood is flexible and good for earthquake zones but that applies to a tiny portion of the continental USA.

        • Fire also loves wood. When the fuck are you americans going to start building houses out of brick, blockwork or concrete FFS like most of europe? Sure, wood is flexible and good for earthquake zones but that applies to a tiny portion of the continental USA.

          I'd guess that we're about to, as all of these devastating "natural disasters" are keeping wood prices crazy high, and making other building materials cheaper by comparison. The ball started rolling down the hill with the 2020 derecho, and it just keeps rolling...

        • They are more widespread [time.com] than most folks realize.

      • House density regulations produce developments with houses only a few feet away from each other.

        Under-controlled capitalism does that, actually. People split lots and build homes and sell them not because anyone told them they had to, but because it is profitable. And the ongoing housing shortage makes it more profitable, so lather rinse repeat.

        • by Tailhook ( 98486 )

          Under-controlled capitalism does that

          Government does that. Towns like Boulder, Fort Collins, Loveland and Greely have been trying to prevent 'urban sprawl' as they demean it by requiring developers to pack housing onto tiny lots. If CA people having sold their 600K houses had their way they'd build on an acre or more. This is easy to see when land use isn't being governed by these municipalities; houses built on unincorporated properties are not jammed together like that.

          The unincorporated houses didn't burn down either.

          • Fort Collins, Loveland and Greely have been trying to prevent 'urban sprawl' as they demean it by requiring developers to pack housing onto tiny lots.

            Really? They're holding a gun to their head and forcing them to build housing on tiny lots? Somehow I missed this in the news.

    • by Tablizer ( 95088 )

      > Fires don't consciously go around targeting anybody.

      Like corporations, fires are people too!

    • by nickovs ( 115935 )

      Unless climate change caused colarado to experience 105F temps with 20% humidity in December, it is not the cause nor is it exacerbated by.

      I think you are confusing weather and climate. The weather station on my house (thankfully 5 miles from the fire) indicates that it was down to 22% humidity but with a high of 46F on the 30th, but that's not the point. The point is that the entire area that the fire hit is in "Extreme drought" conditions, a problem that has happened over years, not just one day. We got the record-breaking 100F+ temperatures last summer and critically, the vegetation around here is not evolved for those conditions. The rate

      • by e3m4n ( 947977 )
        didnt you just get a record snow storm? I lived in Bolder in the mid 70s, but thats been a very very long time ago. I barely remember any of it.
        • Record latest first snowfall of the season. And that was 0.3". The first significant snowfall in the area was the day after this fire: 4-6", depending on location.

    • by JoeRobe ( 207552 )

      That "heat" of the triangle is relevant in so much as it i) makes sure the "fuel" is dry, and ii) starts the actual fire, like a flame or hot cigarette butt. The ambient air temperature is irrelevant. If "heat" referred to ambient air temperature then every winter campfire would be impossible. Once a fire is started it doesn't matter if the ambient air is cold. Fire risk is frequently associated with high air temperatures because it dries out the fuel so readily, and summer often overlaps with "dry" sea

      • So you have no idea how auto ignition point works if you think ambient temp plays no factor. In very hot climates the fuel (leaves, twigs, etc) dries out so much that the added heat of bacterial decay causes a fire to form all on its own. In colder environments the fire itself had to produce enough heat to raise the ambient temp in order to prep nearby fuel, for the fire to spread. The colder the surrounding temp, the slower the spread. The same fire in hotter environments spreads faster than colder environ
        • Actually I'm a physical chemist who studies soil bacteria and greenhouses gases, and have previously studied emissions from wildfires in the Pacific Northwest, so I do know what an auto ignition point is, and how soil bacteria work. I also know that microbial activity achieving auto ignition points is rare. To my knowledge it has never been attributed to a significant wildfire. The vast majority of wildfires are caused by humans or lightning strikes. So you've chosen a rare event as an example where amb

  • Some people like fires. Most arson's though do not like to kill people.

    Perhaps we have steal from the rich, or too many of one race lived there, or any other number of self delusional
    justifications as why this was torched, by some angry humans

    Last on my list of excuses for this fire, are nature and climate.
    • Last on my list of excuses for this fire, are nature and climate.

      The argument isn't that we wouldn't have fires if not for AGW. It's that fires are more serious with it. Why do you find that difficult to believe?

      • Last on my list of excuses for this fire, are nature and climate.

        The argument isn't that we wouldn't have fires if not for AGW. It's that fires are more serious with it. Why do you find that difficult to believe?

        Whether that is true or not, it's unrelated to what happened in Colorado. The root problem is actually housing codes, where wood frame houses are built so close together that a good wind storm has no trouble wiping out a whole neighborhood. Such winds have been around forever.

        • You know nothing about this fire.

          It began near the intersection of Hwy 93 and Marshall Road. It's miles from the nearest subdivision. The problem was the 115mph winds and extreme drought. The fire managed to travel miles before hitting a subdivision: it doesn't matter how close together the houses were.

  • Same thing can be said about how California manages their forest land (hint: they don't). What they could have done to address their prison population and homeless population is put them all to work managing the forests. The cost to do that would probably be less than the cost of imprisonment or dealing with homeless on the street.

    • by Tablizer ( 95088 )

      Same thing can be said about how California manages their forest land (hint: they don't).

      Example? Note much if it is federal land.

      • Same thing can be said about how California manages their forest land (hint: they don't).

        Example? Note much if it is federal land.

        California, like all other western states, was occupied by the people we call Native Americans for over ten thousand years. They set fires every year and successfully avoided these kind of incidents. However, they weren't building shacks in the woods and then expecting them to remain. Our view on property rights etc. has led us to neglect this practice, which is incompatible with our selfish apparent need to erect flammable structures in forest clearings.

        In a few places they are letting the remaining native

        • by Tablizer ( 95088 )

          > Our view on property rights etc. has led us to neglect this practice

          If property rights are given priority over gov't assessments and recommendations, this is what happens. Residents have always complained about controlled burns. Citizens don't like the truth, and vote it away.

          • Citizens don't like the truth, and vote it away.

            Sure, they vote for candidates who pretend reality doesn't exist, and tell them what they want to hear. See: 45

  • Preparedness. (Score:4, Interesting)

    by Fly Swatter ( 30498 ) on Monday January 03, 2022 @10:39AM (#62138415) Homepage
    Living in a fire prone area is the same as living in one that is flood prone. The sad part is that floods can't really be avoided but fire containment measures can be done as a preventative measure. It just takes money - oops.
    • by gtall ( 79522 )

      Really? Take a look at the drought map: https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu... [unl.edu]

      Notice anything? No, I figured you wouldn't.

    • The suburbs this fire ripped through aren't exactly a "fire prone area".

      • A bunch of houses all built out of flammable materials and slapped right up against one another? Yeah, that's a fire-prone area.

        A lot of people are in denial about this. You could see it first in California but you're going to see it in more and more places as this sort of thing becomes more prevalent. A lot of how we build houses frankly makes no fucking sense for people who think they're the best in the world. In no way does it make sense for us to be building these shit shacks made out of false-dimension

  • ... but when it comes to neighborhoods being leveled like the ones in Colorado were, doesn't it also make sense to think about the building materials used? A lot of modern homes these days are built with OSB - basically, I beams that have plywood at the top and bottom, and a middle that is made up, usually, of wood flakes, sawdust, and held together with tons of highly flammable adhesives. The stuff burns faster, hotter, and even puts off enough radiant heat to cause nearby buildings to be damaged. Judgi
    • Are you suggesting the hotel that burned to the ground was constructed just like a house? Perhaps you're trying to solve the wrong problem....

    • >spark more discussion

      I see what you did there :-)

      Worth thinking about, but the article mentioned that concrete buildings burned too, and that even some of the houses burned from the inside out as flying embers went through every possible opening and ignited the contents.

      Which is still room for discussion. Maybe fire codes should say more about home furnishings, which I've read disturbing things about.

      • the article mentioned that concrete buildings burned too, and that even some of the houses burned from the inside out as flying embers went through every possible opening and ignited the contents.

        With a bunch of flammable homes nearby burning like roman candles in a high wind, the temperatures inside a home can reach the combustion point. This is why defense in depth is the only real defense. We must prohibit construction with flammable roofs at minimum and preferably also siding and window frames going forwards. Vinyl siding, vinyl windows, asphalt roofs, they've all got to go. You may not be able to save your house from going up once your neighbors' houses burn, but if you can stop the first house

  • ...my ass will be on fire in 7.2 minutes. Wait, what?"

  • Climate scientist, or climatist scientists?

  • by bradley13 ( 1118935 ) on Monday January 03, 2022 @12:08PM (#62138679) Homepage

    2021 was full of extreme weather events

    No more than any other year. However, the climate hysteria means that every blip is now OMG Eleventy!

    Every year has some record broken somewhere. Every year has major storms. Every year sees wildfires. The need for clickbait means that every one of these events gets touted as something dramatic.

  • Data dump (Score:4, Informative)

    by Reiyuki ( 5800436 ) on Monday January 03, 2022 @02:02PM (#62139039)
    There were actually a few inz stances in 2021 of climate activists caught setting fires in their own backyards:

    https://www.npr.org/2021/08/11/1026700103/former-college-professor-arson-charges-california-dixie-fire

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10031697/Woman-Alexandra-Souverneva-arrested-suspicion-starting-rapidly-spreading-California-wildfire.html

  • Before I get started, I need to say that, in my opinion, climate change is here and now. The only real talking points are causes and responses.

    I live in the northernmost county in Idaho. It is very rural and outside of Bonners Ferry, zoning it pretty minimal. It is also forest fire country.

    Because this is forest fire country, there are some things that you just don't do when building a home:
    You don't have flammable landscaping close to the house.
    You don't have that big beautiful tree right besi
    • I've lived in Colorado for 50 years. We have forest fires every year, the three worst in history were just last year. This subdivision is not in a forest, or even near one. There has been nothing like this in Colorado in my lifetime.

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