Catch up on stories from the past week (and beyond) at the Slashdot story archive

 



Forgot your password?
typodupeerror
×
Earth

Studies Predict Climate Change Bringing 'Brutal' Century for Western US (yahoo.com) 272

The western United States, "once a beacon for all that was new and hopeful in America, could become an example of the grim, apocalyptic future the nation faces from climate change," writes USA Today. Long-time Slashdot reader Klaxton shares their report: The last five years already have been harrowing. Whole neighborhoods burned down to foundations. Children kept indoors because the air outside is too dangerous to play in. Killer mudslides of burned debris destroying towns. Blood-red skies that are so dark at midday, the streetlights come on and postal workers wear headlamps to deliver the mail.

And it's going to get worse unless dramatic action is taken, two studies published this week forecast.

The first predicts the growth of wildfires could cause dangerous air quality levels to increase during fire season by more than 50% over the next 30 years in the Pacific Northwest and parts of northern California....

The danger stretches across the United States. Wildfire smoke can travel hundreds and even thousands of miles. In July, smoke from Western wildfires triggered air quality alerts and caused smoky skies and red-orange haze in New York, Washington, Baltimore, Philadelphia and Boston.

Meanwhile, a second study "shows how expected increases in wildfires and intense rain events could result in more devastating flash floods and mudslides across a broad portion of the West," the article reports. Jonathan Overpeck, a climate scientist/dean at the University of Michigan's School for Environment and Sustainability, tells the newspaer, "Even climate scientists are scared."

And Bruce Cain, director of Stanford's Bill Lane Center for the American West, hoped the studies would inspire a meaningful response. "It's a kick in the pants to get stuff done."
This discussion has been archived. No new comments can be posted.

Studies Predict Climate Change Bringing 'Brutal' Century for Western US

Comments Filter:
  • Wont happen (Score:4, Insightful)

    by wierd_w ( 1375923 ) on Monday April 04, 2022 @06:50AM (#62415342)

    Or rather, the rest of the US looks with jaundiced eyes about what happens in Ca and Wa states.

    That is to say, the climate change totally WILL happen-- what WONT happen, is effective mitigation.

    The reality is that the agricultural activities in Ca have *NEVER* been sustainable. Combined with climate change, the "we have groundwater reserves that will last over a century" is now more "We will run out in our lifetime".

    The rest of the US wont really care. A modest price increase for strawberries and almonds from elsewhere will follow, but the price hikes from rising inflation due to the post-covid and now ukrainian war bullshit, will drown it out. All prices on all goods are going up, and the marginal increase caused by Ca agriculture tanking will be a drop in the bucket-- Nobody will notice nor care.

    Meanwhile, the Eastern seaboard will continue to have extreme cold winter weather, increased hurricane activity, and other bad weather, which will only increase fossil fuel use.

    At least until the glacial ice in Antarctica breaks free, and slides into the ocean. Then the seaboards worldwide will suddenly find themselves underwater. Possibly quite quickly.

    The time to make effective mitigation against these kinds of disasters is long past, but was called "doomsaying", and much ado was made about "inaccuracies of their models", and such-- because casting such aspersions and living in a fantasy bubble was easier and more comforting than accepting that human economic activities were destroying the viability of the planet for habitation.

    That same jaundiced view will dominate, even as the sea levels rise, forests burn, and the air becomes choking and unbreathable.

    THEN-- when it is too late, the same people that refused to act, and stymied efforts to act, will claim that it is not realistically infeasible to act, and just continue as before, as the world burns.

    Why should they care? They had theirs.

    • Re:Wont happen (Score:5, Informative)

      by skam240 ( 789197 ) on Monday April 04, 2022 @06:59AM (#62415362)

      The rest of the US wont really care. A modest price increase for strawberries and almonds from elsewhere will follow, but the price hikes from rising inflation due to the post-covid and now ukrainian war bullshit, will drown it out. All prices on all goods are going up, and the marginal increase caused by Ca agriculture tanking will be a drop in the bucket-- Nobody will notice nor care.

      https://www.mercurynews.com/20... [mercurynews.com]. "California’s 77,500 farms produce more than 400 commodities, and two-thirds of the nation’s fruits and nuts."

      I don't think you have a strong grasp on what California's contribution to US food is.

      • by Anonymous Coward on Monday April 04, 2022 @07:07AM (#62415380)

        and two-thirds of the nation’s fruits and nuts

        I believe they prefer to be called LGBTQ+.

        • Wild fruits, baby, wild fruits.
        • Re:Wont happen (Score:5, Informative)

          by jellomizer ( 103300 ) on Monday April 04, 2022 @07:58AM (#62415490)

          In other states, there are just about the same amount of them, they are just living in fear if they are found out they will be shunned from society.

      • Re:Wont happen (Score:4, Insightful)

        by drinkypoo ( 153816 ) <drink@hyperlogos.org> on Monday April 04, 2022 @07:27AM (#62415418) Homepage Journal

        California produces something like 40% of the food eaten in the USA. But if California produces less, then other states will produce more. Some crops will get much more expensive or even go away, but we produce enough food that we're not going to go hungry in this country, at least not because there won't be enough to go around. If people are going hungry here it will be because others are exporting too much food in order to preserve their profits and lifestyle.

        • by skam240 ( 789197 )

          When did I say anyone was going to go hungry?

          My point is that the changes in a lot of food prices will likely be quite noticeable if California agriculture were to disappear. Sure, we'd still have plenty of wheat, corn, and meat but there's plenty of produce that comes from California that would be hard for the US to replace, at least at the prices we're used to.

        • Re:Wont happen (Score:5, Interesting)

          by Registered Coward v2 ( 447531 ) on Monday April 04, 2022 @07:37AM (#62415440)

          California produces something like 40% of the food eaten in the USA. But if California produces less, then other states will produce more. Some crops will get much more expensive or even go away, but we produce enough food that we're not going to go hungry in this country, at least not because there won't be enough to go around.

          It would be likely that a number of crops would go away simply because weather conditions would not be favorable for their growth. However, Pacific West will not be the only area impacted - it's likely climate change will impact crops grown elsewhere as well as the climate changes.

          If people are going hungry here it will be because others are exporting too much food in order to preserve their profits and lifestyle.

          I have complete faith in American's ability to focus solely on "preserv(ing) their profits and lifestyle."

          • by Luckyo ( 1726890 )

            It already has. Positively. Global warming in the main US ag belt warmed nights. That means longer planting season as nights don't go sub zero as often.

            So you now have double cropping areas spread north a few hundred meters every year. And where it's not quite there yet, warmer nights still mean better buffers around each season in case of bad weather or some disruption. I.e. you can actually afford to plant later, as crops won't get hit by night freeze as early.

            Because while warming is global, its impact i

            • Insects are going to be more of a problem. The wetter conditions are going to be more of a problem. One has to look at the total picture before declaring something a good thing.

        • But isnt CA also a bug chunk of the population also? So 40% less food but 40% less people. Seems like a wash in numbers.
        • by XXongo ( 3986865 )

          California produces something like 40% of the food eaten in the USA.

          Google is your friend.

          By dollar value, California produces 13% of US food production.

          https://www.mercurynews.com/20... [mercurynews.com]

          • California is very focused on massive factory farms. My guess is this means they are producing large amounts of cheap food. Sounds important to the poors.

        • by Khyber ( 864651 )

          "But if California produces less, then other states will produce more."

          Most of the stuff we produce here in California won't grow well in other areas of the country. Good luck with those avocados!

          • Most avocados in my local stores already come from Mexico.

            That is to say, other than Mexico having to take up the slack of Ca's reduced crop output because of its flagrant misuse of its water resources, to grow almonds in a semi-arid desert, the costs of avocados in my area are not going to appreciably change.

            The major source of change in price, is going to be from inflation, caused by the global logistical snafu, which will discourage consumption. Possibly enough to offset the loss of Ca produced avocados

            • That is assuming that the climate change won't affect Mexico:s ability to grow crops, or that of the Eastern US. AFAIK this study only looked at the Western US, it didn't conclude that only Western US would have issues.
              • by Luckyo ( 1726890 )

                The rest of US is having issues. Positive issues, not negative issues. Specifically progression of double cropping areas northward, massively increasing yields.

            • to grow almonds in a semi-arid desert,

              If you think California is a semi-arid desert, you need to stop writing posts and go look at a climate map. Most of the central valley (where crops are grown) is a Mediterranean climate, not a semi-arid desert.

              Mexico having to take up the slack of Ca's reduced crop output because of its flagrant misuse of its water resources

              Also, where did you get your ideas about farming? They are nonsense.

        • Have you been watching what has been happening in the economy for the past decade, and especially the last 3 years?
          Oh lets put Tariffs on Steel and Aluminum, so the US own Steel and Aluminum industries can pick up the slack. Except for the fact that they were not setup to to forge all the particular grades needed, and don't have the equipment to meet demand, or the resources to upgrade.
          Counter Tariffs from China, hit our soybean industry, soybean farmers had to take a big loss, and needed government assis

          • by shmlco ( 594907 )

            "And have a fit on the idea of Windmills, Solar panels, Hydro Electric and..."

            Not really. It just that money spent there isn't being spent on oil and gas.

            Signed: CEO, Exxon

          • by DarkOx ( 621550 )

            Some items like a lot of fruits, will be difficult to grow in other areas of the country

            In theory climate change should also make some of them easy to grow in other parts of the country. Its also not as if the historic make up of the national table setting has not changed multiple times over the past two centuries. If almonds get two pricey people will eat more black walnuts. Change is change its not even necessarily bad unless you happen to live in one of the spots that is likely to fall into the sea, or you have continued to invest billions into growing water intensive corps in the desert,

            • Climate change will push agriculture in all directions, but it's slow. It's not just temperature and humidity, it's also infrastructure and other things that don't necessarily get developed rapidly. Food isn't a hot market; profit margins are low; risk of investing in new areas is high.

        • There are some fairly significant long term threats to the mid-west as well, particularly with changes to rain belts and precipitation patterns. The real long term threat isn't what amount to effectively boutique crops. Yeah, sucks if almonds end up being $500 a pound, but nobody is going to starve. See significant reductions in yields to cereal crops, and then we have a real problem.

        • Or you could say that California agricultural practices have effectively been externalising environmental costs and maybe it is time to pay that back, even it if causes a decimation of their agricultural sector.

          Having said that, one use of intermittent renewable energy could be for desalination. I believe that the costs are now so low that the agricultural sector would be viable with close to 100% desalinated water. Using desalinated water works well for agriculture since you could always just replenish you

      • Oh, I grasp it alright.

        I also grasp international economics. When the price barrier vanishes, such a through rising inflation, the difference on where those fruits and nuts come from vanishes.

        that is what YOU are not understanding, despite my basically spoonfeeding that to you.

        • by skam240 ( 789197 )

          I also grasp international economics.

          No you don't, you don't even understand supply and demand. How would inflation magically make the higher prices that follow from product scarcity magically go away? Just because prices are going up doesnt mean they cant go up much faster for some things relative to others.

          • 1) Most americans live paycheck to paycheck. (>65%)
            2) As costs of basic staples increase due to inflation, demand for high value commodites, which is what Ca specializes in (fresh berries, tree nuts, avocados, domestic rice, and dairy products that can be produced elsewhere just as well, if not better) will drop.
            3) as that demand drops, the costs of that commodity will drop, until it reaches equilibrium with the market.
            4) Once at the new equilibrium, other markets will have been enabled by the higher (po

      • California is a major state that is picking up the slack for the rest of the United States.
        California is the Top Agricultural producer in the US
        California is the Largest State Economy by GDP, with a GDP greater than the UK, and slightly under Germany.
        California has the largest population in the US, with over 10 million more people than Texas, which is a distant #2

        I know, California tends to vote Democrat on state wide and national elections. Which having the provide the most members of the house, and electo

        • Re:Wont happen (Score:5, Interesting)

          by wierd_w ( 1375923 ) on Monday April 04, 2022 @08:07AM (#62415530)

          California is also misusing its water supply to produce those crops.
          https://iopscience.iop.org/art... [iop.org]
          https://sgp.fas.org/crs/misc/R... [fas.org]

          the crops it grows are among the worst in terms of water and energy use per pound produced--
          https://www.pressdemocrat.com/... [pressdemocrat.com]

          So much so in fact, that due to the drought conditions there, many farmers have *ALREADY* stopped producing those commodities.
          https://www.globalaginvesting.... [globalaginvesting.com]

          https://www.nytimes.com/2021/0... [nytimes.com]

          So, you can continue to shout about how amazeballs the Ca economy is for food production all you want. The handwriting is on the damn wall. It wont last; water is being pulled out of the ground faster than it goes back in, and overall, the climate is shifting in ways that will render continued attempts to produce those commodities even more unrealistic.

          • Do you avoid buying California grown crops when you shop? If not, then you're causing the problem by subsidizing an unsustainable industry.

        • Can some one please explain to the confuses European over here why the conservatives in the US call the Democrats, liberals? Aren't the conservatives the ones that shout freedom, are pro gun ownership and pro smaller government, all which are liberal trademarks?
          • by skam240 ( 789197 )

            That's because in the US the term "liberal" has a substantially different definition then it does in Europe. "Liberal" and the political "Left" are synonymous with each other here.

            The Wikipedia page on the subject does a good job of explaining the "whys" and "hows" of this difference. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/... [wikipedia.org]

          • by jbengt ( 874751 )
            American "conservatives" shout about those things, but the only one they actually pursue policy-wise is gun ownership.
          • It's almost like there are different culturals and backgrounds in the world. Crazy, right?

          • Somehow, we ended up with a conservative/liberal axis, which doesn't make sense. Conservative/progressive would make sense. Liberal/authoritarian would make sense. Traditionall Rupublicans were progressive, not conservative. But when Democrat FDR introduced the progressive New Deal it led to a shift in how the parties get referred to. Over time, liberal became associated with progressives, who were traditionally calling for liberal ideals in freeing slaves, women's rights, etc. At some point, this associati

      • Or rather, currently produces, until climactic and local environmental effects see the whole industry collapse. That an unsustainable agricultural area has become so important to the North American diet is more a sign of the inherent inability of humans to think in the long term. The mere fact that they had to redirect most of the Colorado River over a mountain range to make the desert green shows you even eighty years ago they knew they were doing something that could not be considered in any way viable. A

      • by poet ( 8021 )

        There will be an adjustment period but really one of the best things that could happen is people start just eating what they can get reasonably local.

        If you live in WA, you absolutely shouldn't be eating eggs from Ohio.

        • Eating local is great insofar as it's possible. The problem is that very few regions can produce all of what is needed for an acceptable level of nutrition.

          Example: a great majority of fruits could never grow here in northeast Ohio, even though, by area, it is a largely agricultural region; we have to get those from warmer regions.

          Places further north, e.g,. much of the Canadian land mass, gradually lose the ability to grow most food crops, period.

          Places like Japan have always had to import most of their f

      • Yes, they do. And a huge chunk of it is done with water that is basically "mined". As in - there's a limited supply of it and once those aquifers are too low, the water is essentially gone. It's gonna happen one of these decades, and we'll have to adapt.
    • casting such aspersions and living in a fantasy bubble was easier and more comforting than accepting that human economic activities were destroying the viability of the planet for habitation.

      Actually, the "greed is good" mantra cause us gleeful consumers to buy into big corporation's koan of "prove to me that my making money is harmful to your planet."

      • Amusingly, the corporations themselves have already proven this to themselves using their own analytics and climate modelling. Oil companies in the US had predicted mass climate shifts way back in the 60s.

        Their solution was not to go "Oh, our economic activities are bad! We should adapt them to be less bad!"

        their solution was "Make a bunch of spurious, and bad science that discounts and muddies the water, so we can continue to operate as we currently are for maximal profits."

        Consumers are just notoriously

    • Hi wierd_w, can I hire you as a motivational speaker?
      • Sorry no, I am too busy wiping asses for a living.

        It might explain my shitty view of the world though. ;)

        Hilariously, I find wiping asses for a living less stressful than dealing with figurative bullshit, like I did in tech all day.

        Regardless, for basically the same reasons end users are demonstrably incapable of altering their use behaviors that predispose them to having computer problems, the world's population will be incapable of altering their consumer behaviors to stop predisposing the planet to furth

    • Predicting the future has always been a very foggy enterprise and the world back of when I was a four year old kid in 1930 was a very different place from today. So to deny the worst makes little sense in planning for the future. No matter how bad things can get here, this planet still has far better expectations in multitudes of ways than any other planet or even our Moon. Instead of accepting the psychopathelogical future that our current society seems to be accepting as offered by those in control, there
      • While I laud your optimism, our world is demonstrably one where people cant be bothered to even wear a simple mask in public to help discourage a very real and present public health menace.

        Expecting them to alter their living standards, or their living habits at home, to combat a more long-term problem does not follow from current examples.

        I would very much like to be proven wrong. I am not optimistic that I will be though. Sadly.

      • by gtall ( 79522 )

        "four year old kid in 1930". so you are 96 years old. . .on Slashdot. I have my doubts.

        • by Zak3056 ( 69287 )

          He's been posting for a while and is consistent in his claims. He may be full of shit or a crazy person, but it's at least as likely he's on the level.

          My only problem is the wall-o-text posting style, he should definitely learn to use paragraphs.

      • There's an intrinsic problem in saying "Hey, let's just stop paying for the military." There's a serious lesson from history here, that sustained climactic changes can represent an existential threat to even thriving civilizations. The invaders out of the Asian Steppe that started flooding into Europe starting with the Huns in the 4th century, creating massive political and social dislocation in their wake, likely occurred because of environmental changes in the Asian Steppe. Even a civilization as technolo

    • Arizona's gonna care when their water gets shutoff. California has priority for water rights over a bunch of other states. When we start running out in California, it's THEIR water that gets shutoff, not ours.

  • by AndyKron ( 937105 ) on Monday April 04, 2022 @07:03AM (#62415370)
    Since nothing will be done the prediction of it getting worse will come true.
  • "once a beacon for all that was new and hopeful in America"
    • Population tells another story. The majority clearly believes it, otherwise so many wouldn't have flocked here. That your country bumpkin cousin-fuckin' neighbors disagree is immaterial. I wish more people felt like you do, though, because then maybe rents wouldn't be so bananas.

    • I think Francisco de Goya's painting of Saturn Devouring His Son would be a fitting logo for the USA in general, or as George Clinton put it, "America eats its young."
    • Can you talk about border security in the same sentence? The place is so terrible yet it needs massive fences and security forces to keep people from entering.

  • by SirSlud ( 67381 ) on Monday April 04, 2022 @07:06AM (#62415376) Homepage

    The most effective way to make sure an American refuses to do something is to tell them they should do something.

  • Pun intended.

    We need to rapidly go nuclear with our energy production. And figure out how to scrub CO2 from the air and sequester it.

    Hectoring and blaming hasn't worked. And there was no reason to think that it should.

    Nobody, including those who play politics with this issue, actually wants to go back to stone age living.

    So we need to actually technologically address the problem, instead of just using it as a political and social cudgel.

    • Re: (Score:2, Insightful)

      by EMN13 ( 11493 )

      Though it's great we have some nuclear supply and certainly should keep currently running plants running, nuclear isn't even remotely cost competitive with plain old renewables such as wind and solar.

      Nevertheless, given how dire our straits are, I'm all for saying yes to feasible nuclear power production increases - but you should be realistic and not expect miracles, here. Almost all of the fossil fuel replacements will need to be wind and solar, if only for purely economical and logistical reasons.

  • Then all the vegetation will have burnt away to be replaced by savanna or probably desert. Then it'll be clear blue skies again, albeit at 50C+.

  • by bradley13 ( 1118935 ) on Monday April 04, 2022 @08:04AM (#62415524) Homepage

    All those links are about California wildfires.

    Those forests that are *supposed* to burn - that's their life cycle. The massive fires are due to years of suppressing fires, so nature is making up for lost time. Burned neighborhoods come from building in stupid places, i.e., next to forests that are supposed to burn.

    Not mentioned in TFS, but we just as well mention water rights, which are so screwed up that some farmers grow *rice* in the desert, while cities are draining water tables down to nothing. Allocations from the Colorado river based on a few unusually wet years, no one has the guts to cut those allocations to match reality, and then people are surprised that the river is drained to nothing.

    Climate change is not the problem in the Western US. Human stupidity is.

    • by Tablizer ( 95088 )

      > Burned neighborhoods come from building in stupid places, i.e., next to forests that are supposed to burn.

      There's a housing shortage here, what are we supposed to do? I got it, bus them to YOUR state!

      > The massive fires are due to years of suppressing fires

      Arguably in part, but the biggest problem is that rainfall has clearly been low for that past couple of decades. No water is no water. When trees and brush were not so dry on average, fires were generally containable. When too many get too dry, th

  • by zkiwi34 ( 974563 ) on Monday April 04, 2022 @08:30AM (#62415610)
    They will lead the way.
  • by Anonymous Coward

    When he gets re-elected what then? Oh yeah, he'll blame everyone but himself for everything.

    anyone opposing him will get locked up in the US Fascist state with him as POTUS for life.

    I'm so glad that I left TX twenty years ago and the US two years later. Life here in Malmo is just so much nicer. The lack of guns is a big plus.

  • by Chrisq ( 894406 ) on Monday April 04, 2022 @08:48AM (#62415668)
    As a non-American it always seemed strange to me that a country with a lot to lose would be doing least about it. Predictions are for the grain belt to move from the USA to Canada and from Southern Europe to Northern Europe, Scandinavia and Russia. It could make things politically interesting
    • There are problems there as well. While it's quite possible to start moving major crop production further north, a lot of the cereal crops won't thrive in places like Northern Alberta, Saskatchewan, Nunavut and the Northwest Territories. The crops that can grow there, like winter rye, have relatively low yields, in no small part because they have much shorter growing seasons. So you would have to convert a lot more of the region to arable land, which has its own problems in finding sufficient water and basi

  • by Mspangler ( 770054 ) on Monday April 04, 2022 @09:02AM (#62415700)

    http://ocp.ldeo.columbia.edu/r... [columbia.edu]

    A prolonged drought also crashed the Mayan civilization. I think the dates for that were around 900, near the beginning of the Medieval Warm Period.

    History is rhyming again.

  • by mpercy ( 1085347 ) on Monday April 04, 2022 @09:57AM (#62415920)

    NY Time article "In California, a Wet Era May Be Ending" indicates that the last 150 years (i.e., since about California statehood) has been unusually wet, and that current conditions are essentially a reversion to the norm:

    "Equally as important but much easier to forget is that we consider the last 150 years or so to be normal," he added. "But you don't have to go back very far at all to find much drier decades, and much drier centuries."

    That raises the possibility that California has built its water infrastructure — indeed, its entire modern society — during a wet period.

    But scientists say that in the more ancient past, California and the Southwest occasionally had even worse droughts — so-called megadroughts — that lasted decades. At least in parts of California, in two cases in the last 1,200 years, these dry spells lingered for up to two centuries.

    The new normal, scientists say, may in fact be an old one.

  • And yet, everybody and their mother is moving here. So, please believe this because it's already too crowded.

  • The worst drought in the US West is the drought of common sense.

In the long run, every program becomes rococco, and then rubble. -- Alan Perlis

Working...