Germany Unveils Plans To Accelerate Green Energy Expansion (reuters.com) 75
Germany's economy and climate ministry presented a package of measures on Wednesday to speed up the expansion of renewable energy, as the need to reduce the country's heavy reliance on Russian fossil fuels adds urgency to its green transition plans. From a report: The three parties that make up Germany's government had outlined their broad goals for expanding renewables in the coalition contract they signed last November, but Economy Minister Robert Habeck said the war in Ukraine underscored the importance of the plans. The package envisages green energy accounting for 80% of the power mix in Europe's biggest economy by 2030, up from about 40% now and a previous target of 65%. "On the one hand, the climate crisis is coming to a head. On the other hand, Russia's invasion shows how important it is to phase out fossil fuels and promote the expansion of renewables," Habeck told reporters. The legislation includes a new clause acknowledging that the use of renewables is in the interests of public security.
Rather than ban Russian hydrocarbons (Score:1)
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Tariff's don't work. They only end up hurting the consumer, not the offending country. Natural Resources like oil, cannot just be collected anywhere. Some countries are Oil rich, while other are Oil poor. Russia isn't going to pay the $20/bbl Germans will.
Locally produced renewable energy is a better option, to curve demand than a Tariff. Because it is giving the people alternatives, vs just giving a higher price to pay, without having an other option.
The 2022 Gas spike is less impactful than the Gas spik
Re:Rather than ban Russian hydrocarbons (Score:4, Informative)
Tariff's don't work.
No, tariffs absolutely do work. What you mean to say is, "tariffs have multiple effects, and the results may include unanticipated (and undesired) consequences if the people implementing them are too ignorant to anticipate the consequences."
They only end up hurting the consumer, not the offending country.
Only half true. They hurt the consumer and the offending country.
The naïve free-market economic theory says that in the end tariffs end up hurting everybody, by making barriers that distort the market reality. However, in this case, the intent is to distort the market reality, to put barriers in the way of Russian oil and gas.
It should already be obvious that turning away cheaper Russian hydrocarbons and replacing them with more expensive non-Russian energy is going to make energy more expensive. The question is, are the purported (geopolitical) benefits of doing so worth the cost?
....Locally produced renewable energy is a better option, to curve demand than a Tariff.
Yep! Tariffs are crude tools. Giving people alternative options is a much better way to shape demand, if it's possible to do so.
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And tariffs were mostly abandoned a century ago. This was the time income tax was introduced, and the tariff as a tool to raise government revenue wasn't needed, and also protectionism wasn't seen as needed. In the depression the government added back tariffs but it was a disaster because other countries retaliated, and almost certainly made the world wide depression worse than it would have been naturally. After that point, with tariffs being limited and rare the US economy grew by leaps and bounds.
Tariffs [Re:Rather than ban Russian hydrocarbons] (Score:3)
And tariffs were mostly abandoned a century ago.
They dropped to about 12% in 1947, to be specific, with the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade, and dropping again in 1975, a result of continuing GATT negotiations.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/... [wikipedia.org] shows a good graph. Tariffs aren't gone, but (on dutiable imports) remain at about 5%. That's not 5% on everything, though; tariffs are now targeted for specific purposes. They were abandoned as a tool for government revenue, but continue to be used as a tool of economic diplomacy.
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I do not understand why we all just don't impose a $20/bbl tariff on oil from Russia,
Well, the main problem is Europe's dependence on Russian natural gas, not oil.
Hydrocarbons are fungible: it's not really like people can say "oh, I just won't choose the Russian natural gas in the pipeline, just the European." You're basically proposing a natural gas tax that is proportional to the fraction of natural gas from Russian sources.
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The key to removing that dependence is insulation. If homes have proper insulation retrofitted their heating needs decrease dramatically, which means much less demand for gas.
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They went for the mantra of natural gas being available forever and for a low price. And all criticism like from people like myself was stifled by covering their ears and calling everyone a racist and wanting war with Russia.
And now, after decades of wilful ignorance towards the uncountable amount of glaring red flags, we have this fine mess with German politicians publicly proclaiming that nobody had seen
Re:Not only Germany (Score:5, Informative)
USA is doing better than people give it credit for. Can always do better but renewables are growing fast in the US:
In 2021, the renewable energy industry remained remarkably resilient. Rapid technology improvements and decreasing costs of renewable energy resources, along with the increased competitiveness of battery storage, have made renewables one of the most competitive energy sources in many areas. Despite suffering from supply chain constraints, increased shipping costs, and rising prices for key commodities, capacity installations remained at an all-time high. Wind and solar capacity additions of 13.8 GW in the first eight months of 2021 were up 28% over the same period in 2020. Many cities, states, and utilities set ambitious clean energy goals, increasing renewable portfolio standards and enacting energy storage procurement mandates.
https://www2.deloitte.com/us/e... [deloitte.com]
CO2 emissions are dropping as well year over year
https://www.statista.com/stati... [statista.com]
To be fair though the US will probably lead CO2 per capita for years to come but for the fact that the US has not passed any significant direct climate legislation in awhile it's not so bad. The economics of renewables are just becoming obvious and it seems like the electric car tipping point is on the horizon which is very important for the US specifically.
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Uzbekistan?
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The USA has the ability and resources to drill for oil, while it isn't as much as an option for Europe. Europe's economy is set to prosper with local renewable energy., as it will cut its need for foreign resources to maintain its infrastructure.
While in the long run the USA would be better off with a more modern energy policy, however in the short term, there is so much of economy tied to oil, with a good portion of these workers ready to vote against anyone who is seemingly trying to take their jobs away
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And yet, here we are with $4+/gallon for gas.
It's almost as if U.S. oil drillers aren't drilling so the price of oil stays high. Which of course will be blamed on Biden despite 9,000 permits having been issued and not used.
Re:Not only Germany (Score:4, Insightful)
Wouldn't matter if we did drill - American oil is almost all exported because most American refineries can't process it - they're all designed to process Middle Eastern oil instead. The chemical composition (including contaminants) of oil differs from one deposit to another, enough so that you can't just dump in American oil instead in the same refineries - you need to rebuild the things to handle the differences, which takes years and lots of money nobody is going to spend to address a temporary situation.
And it will be temporary because the US has a long-standing strategic policy of discouraging drilling here, and shows no sign of changing that stance. Oil is a finite resource, the easily accessible deposits are already running out, and we'd much rather be the ones who still have ample reserves while the rest of the world is struggling. Why use up your own reserves when you can drain the opposition first?
All the propaganda about the Keystone pipeline lowering gas prices in the US was total bullshit for the same reason - our refineries can't handle Canadian oil either. The plan was always to pipe the oil down to the Gulf where it could be shipped overseas more profitably than it could from Canada.
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Germany went backwards shutting down nuclear (Score:2)
They started burning far more coal, and importing electricity made from coal.
I wonder how long it will be before they can replace that base load with other non-carbon sources? And on a 24 hour basis, not just peak times when the sun shines and the wind blows.
Building new nukes is dubious, given the alternatives. But shutting down existing ones was political madness.
Shutting down (Score:2)
Expansion? I thought Germany was shutting down all their reliable green energy.
Solar is great when available, but there is not much grid storage yet, or soon.
Any chance of re-opening those green power stations? Given the massive unexpected policy changes recently by the German government, anything seems possible.
Re: Shutting down (Score:2)
I would imagine once decommissioned nuke plants take loads of money and time to restart. At least in the U.S. the expense is in bureaucracy. That expense is the same whether you re-open a decommissioned plant or you build a new one. So, yeah, they should be looking into nuke power, but I don't think it's a quick win.
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A nuclear power plant also only reduces oil imports by about 20,000 barrels per day. A plant in warm storage (first year or two) likely can be economically restarted, but after that it would never be viable. I think turbines get removed around year 3-4, but that is based on what I read a long time ago for one specific plant.
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"So, yeah, they should be looking into nuke power, but I don't think it's a quick win."
Their fuel comes from Russia and Kazakhstan as well.
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or Canada, Australia, ...
Not that it matters much as the amount needed is small and stockpiled.
What do you have against Kazakhstan?
Kazakhstan's prostitutes cleanest in the region/Except of course Turkmenistan's.
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When the wind doesn't blow and the sun doesn't shine (rain is mostly irrelevant), coal and gas is used for electricity production. A lot of this gas comes from Russia. So far this is somewhat correct. But gas use for electricity is a very small part of overall gas use (most is used in industry), and did not increase with the buildout of renewables. Even if no gas were used for electricity, Germany would still be dependent on Russia for gas imports. Also enewables provide 16% of primary energy consumption fo
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Germany's installed capacity for electric generation increased from 121 gigawatts (GW) in 2000 to 218 GW in 2019, an 80% increase, while electricity generation increased only 5% in the same period.
You're correct that electricity use did not increase significantly in that period, but with a 5% added in real generation, there is virtually no offset of the existing hydrocarbons as you point out.
During their 13th Five-Year Plan period from 2016 to 2020, China built 20 new nuclear power plants with a total capac
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It is true that capacity increased much more than generation because wind and solar renewables have a low capacity factor. But this is also irrelevant.
Actual production from renewables increased from 38 TWh in 2010 to 251 TWh in 2020 ( lower again in 2021 due to whether) while gas use for electricity production was similar with 89 TWh in 2010 and 95 TWh in 2020 (but gas fluctuates a lot and also sometimes is much lower) . At same time lignite use was reduced from 146 TWh to 92 TWh and coal from 117 TWh to
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You're comparing production with consumption. Yes, you CAN generate a lot of energy with renewables, the lack of capacity factor is relevant to the consumption piece but not relevant to the generation.
The problem is that Germany has generation when there is no demand for consumption and vice versa. As I said, they doubled their capacity for production but only increased their consumption of that energy by 5%, the rest went 'somewhere else'. The Germans aren't stopping importing coal or oil or gas from Russi
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All numbers in my last post were *actual* production in the corresponding year. So no, I am not comparing production to consumption.
I have no idea why capacity factor is relevant to consumption. I am not sure why capacity is relevant at all in the scope of this discussion.
Germany has a lot of renewables but even when they are at max (high wind and a lot sun) this rarely exceeds consumption. So no, it does not go "somewhere else". it almost completely replaces fossil fuels which are reduced when at the time
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Germany has been a great example of investing in renewables in the recent past. It's shameful that my country (Netherlands) slacks behind. Also, to my pleasant surprise, nuclear power is back on the political table in more than one country, being delayed closing, re-opening or building new installations.
The real sad part is that we needed a pandemic and a dictator to hasten the energy transition. The knowledge have been around, since the 80's if i may say so. But only severe external pressure could cause po
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Germany has been a great example of investing in renewables in the recent past. It's shameful that my country (Netherlands) slacks behind.
I guess there will be pressure to massively increase production in the Groningen gas field, to levels like 10 years ago, despite the environmental problems?
How do the Dutch feel about this?
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What environmental problems? I was told that gas is the solution because it emits half the CO2 for the same energy compared to coal and oil. /s
Listen, Netherlanders, come to your senses please. The grid "decarbonization" plan is a 100 billion wastebasket. Bio-fuels from decomposing and wind will replace...everything? No nukes? You're crazy.
I am saying this as someone who works for your government and is directly involved in metrological support of all these stuff. Liquid natural gas, biofuels, hydrogen pur
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What environmental problems?
Is google down? Groningen gas field. Subsidence and earthquakes. I guess that's even worse in the Netherlands, where you are barely above sea-level to start with.
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Nuclear is the answer. Economists will tell you that green energy can't realistically replace current energy needs. It's not even close.
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Re: It's going to go broke (Score:1, Flamebait)
Only for some (Score:2)
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Any sources on your line of bullshit?
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Source: Trust me, bro!
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Their heavy environmental rules mean you can't legally use air conditioning in the evening
Pfft. LOL. I've heard a lot of dumb things said about Germany, but this is a whole new level of dumb.
I have stopped going there for any reason.
Is it because you're ignorant? I'm betting it's ignorance. I have a feeling someone may have at some point told you this as a joke to annoy the American but genuinely didn't think someone would be stupid enough to believe it.
No there's no environmental rules banning you from using AC. In fact Germany is pushing temperature control from other energy sources towards electricity. What do you think a "heatpump"
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I mean, the climate is mediated by the ocean and air streams (jet stream and gulf stream), but the southernmost part of Germany is about the same latitude as North Dakota, too.
https://matadornetwork.com/rea... [matadornetwork.com]
Germans with garbage pail US-style houses should still have a lot less need for AC.
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I've been there, 11 separate trips, but non in the last five years. There's lots to like about it: good food, good music, clean streets, lovely architecture. But all of that is being drained, as the country loses money and business as it becomes ever more expensive, and much of this expense is due to the outright maniacal energy policies which, though already nascent, become fully developed after the Tohoku earthquake damaged the Fukushima nuclear power plant. Elimination of nuclear power meant that Germany
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Industry in Germany does not pay retail prices for electricity. Also not all of the cost is from the use of renewables and that part is mostly to pay off old invenstments (which successfully helped to bring prices for renewables down - which benefits everyone worldwide). There also high taxes and fees and costs for maintaining a high quality grid. The price in France also does not reflect the cost.
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No mentioning of even keeping nuclear power plants, when they should be building more.
Username checks out. Unfortunately since we aren't all Timelords Germany is trying to do something quickly, not looking for a solution that may be viable in 2052 if they start construction tomorrow.
Heat pumps will help (Score:2)
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Many German homes (and other buildings) are actually passively heated-- well insulated and deliberately managed outside air intake and exhaust results in no net energy being required specifically for heat-- just internal loads. That is much better than using heat pumps.
If you have an old house with poor insulation and high heating bills... the first thing you should be doing is adding more insulation and better windows. Then look at what you can do for improving heating efficiency. (Radiant floors give t
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That is much better than using heat pumps.
It is. The problem is you use the word "many" instead of the word "few" which is actually the case. While ignoring that gas is used to heat almost half of German homes and only slightly less apartments.
25% of all energy use in Germany is gas. 44% of that is purely residential heating.
Whatever you think you know about houses in Germany is completely irrelevant to their need to address residential heating to reduce reliance on Russian gas.
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It snows in Germany. A lot. Solar power and heat pumps aren't going to keep people from freezing.
What will keep them from freezing is nuclear power plants and synthesized hydrocarbon fuels.
The powers that be in Germany have to know by now that they can't get ahead of the growing demand for energy, and the shrinking supply of fossil fuels, without nuclear fission power. They can kick that can down the road only so far. Studies have been done to estimate how many extra people were killed and injured from
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What will keep them from freezing is nuclear power plants and synthesized hydrocarbon fuels.
Show your work on the efficiency of synthesizing hydrocarbons.
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Show your work on the efficiency of synthesizing hydrocarbons.
I'm not making any claims on the efficiency of hydrocarbon synthesis. The efficiency of the process is largely irrelevant. What is important is the cost in dollars/euro/whatever to the BTU/mile/kilometer/whatever for the fuel. We know of no technology to fuel transoceanic aircraft but hydrocarbons. Nations that want aircraft to fly will have to use fossil fuels or synthesize hydrocarbons.
The process to synthesize hydrocarbons takes energy. This energy can take the form of electricity, heat, or a bit of
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At least in western Germany where I have been living we get almost no snow. So far this year we have had 1 cm or so just a few times. In the last 8 years or so I don't think I have seen more than 5 cm of snow at any time. Heat pumps would work very well here.
Germany and Japan are still in denial about ... (Score:5, Insightful)
The automotive sector had very high barrier to entry, because IC engines are complex and no one can challenge established players. They saw IC engine as their protective moat and the core, and outsourced all other parts, disk brakes, air bags, shocks and struts, wheels and tires, seats and glass, a/c, infotainment ... So it is trivially easy for a new comer to build an entire car without the power train. But the Big Auto in Japan/Germany invested in their moats, made sure they are unchallenged. All the industry leaders there have 40 years of experience in IC Engines.
Suddenly battery has become viable. Electric motors are as old as ICE. Traction motors have been refined for a century in diesel-electric locomotives and electric locomotives. So new comers can create compelling new competitive product to the stodgy old ICEV. The leaders loathe to move into a truly competitive arena, without the protection of their moat. Hopefully Big Oil will lose its clout in US Politics and Germany will wean itself away from Russian oil. We will see the end of Age of Oil in our lifetime. Very exciting.
BEVs have already reached price parity with ICE in all price points above 45K USD. The battery costs are falling inexorably by a factor of 2 every 7 years. It is just a matter of time ICE loses price advantage in the 30K USD (probably in 2025) and 20K (probably in 2028). All the government mandates about banning ICEV are just cover for the ICEV companies to claim, "its the new law that denied our market, so compensate us" coming at the taxpayers with hat in hand.
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I've been thinking something similar about those super cars. What reason is there to buy a Ferrari if it can't even out-perform a Tesla?
You don't really buy a Ferrari for the luxury of the car (although you might for the brand), you buy it because it's a fast, performant car. Soon, a Mazda will perform like a Ferrari.
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Ten years ago, people would look at a Ferrari and say, "Wow, that's a nice car."
Ten years from now, people will look at a Ferrari and say, "What a waste of money."
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Ten years ago, people would look at a Ferrari and say, "Wow, that's a nice car." Ten years from now, people will look at a Ferrari and say, "What a waste of money."
LOL. I doubt the folks at Barrett-Jackson are concerned.
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VW has a range of EVs that is expanding all the time. An EV camper van is coming soon. BMW have some decent EVs, as do Mercedes.
Japan is definitely further behind. Nissan was a pioneer and the be Ariya is pretty good, but the rest of them are really lagging.
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Japanese EVs like the Ariya, Honda e and that Madza one are pretty good cars, generally speaking. The Honda e in particular has the best HMI of any vehicle I've ever seen. The only issue with the Honda and the Mazda is that the battery is so small. I guess they started small to get experience with the technology, but they should really have been able to go in with a 60kWh or lager battery from the very start.
So Europeans are as blind as Americans. Bummer. (Score:2)
So we (collectively) started looking for ways to do business. After all, the best way to welcome a nation to our global community is to do business with them. We win, they win, it'
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Though in theory it might have worked. The problem was that Russia was a kleptocracy and over time Putin became an absolute dictator. The world sort of looked away from that ugly sore and kept trying to make money. In hindisght, nothing about the latest Ukraine invasion or the atrocities being committed by Russia there should have been a surprise, they should all have been predicted based upon past actions and behaviors.