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United States Power

Vast Swath of US At Risk of Summer Blackouts, Regulator Warns (newsnationnow.com) 195

An anonymous reader quotes a report from NewsNation: Blackouts could plague a number of states in the U.S. this summer, regulators warn, as a combination of drought, heat, potential cyber attacks, geopolitical conflicts and supply chain problems could disrupt the power supply, according to a grim new report (PDF) from the North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC). The regulatory body found that large swathes of the U.S. and parts of Canada are at an elevated or high risk of energy shortfalls during the summer's hottest months.

The Midwest is at especially high risk due to the retirement of older plants, which has caused a 2.3% decrease in capacity from last summer, as well as increased demand, according to NERC. In the Southwest, plummeting river levels may cripple hydropower production, the group warned, and in Texas drought-related heat events could cause extreme energy demand. A NERC map shows all states in the western half of the continental U.S., including North Dakota, South Dakota, Nebraska, Kansas, Oklahoma and Texas are at least under elevated risk of energy shortfalls, with parts of the northeastern-most states under high risk. Many states under the Midcontinent Independent System Operator (MISO), such as Arkansas, Louisiana, Michigan, Wisconsin, Iowa, Minnesota, Iowa, Illinois and Indiana are either entirely or partly at high risk.
"Industry prepares its equipment and operators for challenging summer conditions. Persistent, extreme drought and its accompanying weather patterns, however, are out-of-the-ordinary and tend to create extra stresses on electricity supply and demand," said Mark Olson, NERC's manager of Reliability Assessments. "Grid operators in affected areas will need all available tools to keep the system in balance this summer."
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Vast Swath of US At Risk of Summer Blackouts, Regulator Warns

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  • lol no (Score:5, Insightful)

    by drinkypoo ( 153816 ) <drink@hyperlogos.org> on Thursday May 19, 2022 @08:05AM (#62548776) Homepage Journal

    The Midwest is at especially high risk due to the retirement of older plants

    No, the midwest is at especially high risk because they've nimby'd renewables. They didn't close those older plants on a whim.

    • The Midwest is at especially high risk due to the retirement of older plants

      No, the midwest is at especially high risk because they've nimby'd renewables. They didn't close those older plants on a whim.

      This in a nutshell...

      • In that case, it sounds stupid to close down your current plants before new ones are online?

        Kinda like stopping fossil fuel exploration and processing BEFORE alternates are already online and viable to take over.

    • It's not nimbys (Score:5, Insightful)

      by rsilvergun ( 571051 ) on Thursday May 19, 2022 @09:23AM (#62548998)
      Wind and solar work just fine and the only thing anyone's NIMBY about in the midwest is nuclear. It's about money. The American Midwest is always been poor. Doesn't anyone remember the Tennessee valley authority? American midwesterners have been voting for right wing politicians pushing a policy called starve the beast for over 40 years now. They need money for infrastructure spending from the wealthier states to keep their power grids functional and they're not getting it anymore because they've been voting against it.

      It's the same reason we have baby food shortages. In the past the government would have stepped in and insured supply before they were shortages. But we've cut regulations and spending to the Bone and so a disaster wasn't inevitable.

      It turns out that while communism doesn't work either does unfettered capitalism. You need a little from column a little from column b.

      But nobody likes to be told what to do. Never forget the scariest words are I'm from the government and I'm here to help. I mean sure the government built out your power grid and stabilized your economy and food supply from the disasters of the 1930s and 40s... We're not allowed to teach that history anymore in schools and it's not like it's sunk in when we did.
      • by DarkOx ( 621550 )

        Wrong we have a baby formula shortage because unscientific government regulations make importing perfectly safe baby formula products from say the EU with its lower infant mortality rates...

        Nope the problem is entirely one of governments make. Its entirely one that are already very large administrative state was even aware of but chose instead to not act on or did not care enough to run the issue high enough up the chain to get anything meaningful done in time. Bigger government would only have resulted in

        • It does not have anything to do with the government per se, or capitalism versus communism.

          You have a monopoly manufacture for baby milk. And because of your retarded out of control capitalizm: he only has one single factory - just like in a bad SF movie. And that factory is closed. Ooops.

          But that is America. Gods own country of awesomeness.

          • And closing that factory for weeks instead of cleaning in a day then proceeding with heightened testing is a government competency problem. Failure.

      • re: wind and solar (Score:4, Interesting)

        by King_TJ ( 85913 ) on Thursday May 19, 2022 @02:58PM (#62550356) Journal

        No.... wind and solar don't *really* "work just fine". Not in the sense you need stable, 24/7 base load power generation if you want truly reliable electric power for your city or state.

        Wind farms are turning out to be kind of a joke in many respects. Have you seen the worn out or broken blades that are piling up in junk yards because they don't lend themselves to any kind of feasible re-use/recycling? You also have the high expense of maintenance on those because people need special training and certifications just to climb the towers and work on them at those altitudes. Never mind the original issues like bird kills. But even if all of this was magically corrected tomorrow, you can't make the wind blow constantly.

        Solar generates absolutely NO power at night; a fact that doubling the installation cost with large battery storage schemes doesn't change.

        These technologies are great for supplemental power generation, but any plan to deploy them in PLACE of existing generators that were capable of 24/7 power generation is NOT going to improve things. Truthfully, what government is best at is getting really, really big and costly projects started that private industries don't want to take a risk on. That's how America got a space program, not to mention our copper wire land line phone grid (which was a blessing for a century or so and then became more of a curse, when others leapfrogged us in fiber and wireless tech). Government should have been pushing for nuclear power plant upgrades and new deployments using safer technologies. Instead, we've got these feel-good, less costly or controversial measures like putting up more solar panels. They're silent and don't pollute -- so they don't get a lot of resistance to constructing them. But they aren't constant base-load power sources.

        • No.... wind and solar don't *really* "work just fine". Not in the sense you need stable, 24/7 base load power generation if you want truly reliable electric power for your city or state.

          Yes, it's very unfortunate that there is just no way that solar can work at night and no one has ever built a solar facility that can provide energy at night... Oh wait, it can and they have: https://futurism.com/molten-salt-make-24-hour-solar-energy-possible/ [futurism.com]

      • This has literally nothing to do with a lack of money in Midwestern states. There are some pretty complex things going on here, but the two most relevant are the utter failure of yet another wholesale power market to perform as designed, and massive fuel shortages for fossil generators.

        MISO's capacity auction a few weeks ago saw capacity prices increase by a factor of 50 year over year. A capacity auction is designed to ensure that the regional grid operator has enough capacity margin to serve all load wi

    • There are windmills all over Iowa. To the extent that I'm surprised how many I see. I know I first started seeing them 20 years ago.
      They're present in North and South Dakota, Nebraska, and Kansas too...I've traveled through all recently, but I haven't covered enough area there to get a good feel of the extent.
      North and South Dakota have a number of hydroelectric dams.
      Up until recently, there was a nuclear plant in Omaha...but that has apparently been shut down.

      That's just what I'm familiar with in my gene

      • And, for what it's worth...Ethanol. I'm still not sure, one way or another, if it's actually a good thing or not...but it's considered a renewable.

        • Wind generators do just fine in corn fields - flat farmland is great for wind generation.

          Ethanol would be viable without subsidy right now. We don't even have to waste the grain - just process the cellulose leftover from the dead plants. The problem is that it wasn't viable 10 years ago so everyone abandoned cellulosic ethanol.

        • I did read when Biden was asking the EPA to allow the E15, that there are some concerns with increased smog. I am not sure also about Ethanol, as it seems like it is very wasteful of cropland, and there are fossil fuels used in fertilizer and equipment to produce it, so likely it has a high amount of emissions involved in it. Also, Ethanol causes issues for certain types of robber materials, and has to have special care given to the materials in gaskets and tubes used in the vehicle it is being used in.

          • certain types of robber materials,

            Interesting typo, unfortunately missed it on my preview. Should be rubber...

            • In a sense it's an apt description, why would a car manufacturer use seals that perishes when exposed to ethanol? Because it's cheaper and it robs the owner of the car of it's usage prematurely. No manufacturer builds a car to last, because how else are they going to increase the sale of parts and new models?

              • I would expect it has to do with age more than anything, E10-E15 is a relatively new thing.

                I filled my gas tank last night at a pump with E15, and happened to read the warning label about when not to use E15, and one of the requirements to use it is a 2007 or newer car. Likely older cars were not meant to function with Ethanol in the fuel, so it was not recommended to be there. I have also heard that it does bad things to lawn equipment, but as it is all that is available in this area, I expect that probl

    • LOL, don't live there and they are getting what they deserve. They enact laws that are counter to their own interest and then cry when they have to live with the consequences. "Renewables are for tards!" "Fossil fuels forever, gotta own the libstards!" Problem is that in allot of these states simply installing Solar on the roof would vastly lighten the load on the grid and prevent blackouts. We as a country actively suppressed renewable tech and left it to China to go after the market. Guess what, the
  • by OffTheLip ( 636691 ) on Thursday May 19, 2022 @08:07AM (#62548782)
    This is a result of long term (bad) planning which is now biting us in the ass.
    • by Burdell ( 228580 )

      I'm glad I'm in TVA land... not that they're inherently any better at planning or even operating (although they did seem to learn from the Browns Ferry fire), but at least they aren't driven by the short-term profit goals that seems to be such a problem with so many companies.

      And also: TVA appears to have sufficient generating capacity to cover the load demands.

      • I do wish TVA would move more quickly with implementing renewables and shutting down coal. It's the South, the days and times when load is the highest are also the days and times when solar works best.

  • But... Oh.. Those Suh-hummer Nigh-hights!
  • It's almost as if there haven't been decades of warnings.

    I mean. All energy companies invested in their infrastructure, right? Heh. I crack myself up.

    • I mean. All energy companies invested in their infrastructure, right? Heh. I crack myself up.

      Hey now you don't make money by writing checks.

      • They do, but only for new projects. Energy companies don't get paid for maintaining infrastructure, and since we don't hold them responsible when it fails either (PG&E got a handslap for their century-old hooks failing, compared to the damage done and lives lost) they are only really motivated to build new generation facilities, and do the absolute minimum to make sure they can sell the power (which isn't as profitable as building the facilities.)

        This is the real reason there is so much push from corpor

  • Companies are starting to realize that it's cheaper to buy insurance to cover outages than it is to replace old+damaged equipment.
  • I'd like to hope that the vast number of solar panels being installed in the US will reduce the crisis - but perhaps I'm being optimistic!

    • In my case, I was ready to install panels 10 years ago. I have a large south-facing roof in Texas. My biggest issues in doing this have mainly been getting accentuate bids from reliable companies, and my electrical service as it comes into my home. Every contractor out there seems to be fly-by-night trying to "lease" me a system, I want to buy mine and most companies dealing in that are too new ( 2 years of operation) or don't want to sell it to me outright. I could DIY or then hire another installation co

  • when we stopped spending money on infrastructure? When you put those "fiscally conservative" politicians in office and they started cutting spending that went back to the TVA days?

    This is why they want to take over the schools, BTW. I was taught what the TVA is an how it's basically the reason why the mid west and south (read: the poor states) have electricity in the first place. 40+ years of "Starve The Beast" and austerity politics (which somehow still manage to run up deficits while providing shit se
  • It's almost as though we shouldn't have hobbled energy production. How about that.
  • Will Justin Bieber also be releasing new music over this period?

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